马勇教授在会上发布了中国金融形势指数（CAFI）。该指数由财金学院庄毓敏院长领衔主持、由马勇 教授带领的团队研发，历经六年持续追踪与验证，通过货币、信贷、股票、债券、外汇和房地产六大子 市场指数，系统衡量中国金融整体形势。 CAFI指数能准确反映金融周期运行状况，并对GDP、CPI等关键宏观经济指标具有显著领先性。当前监 测表明，中国金融形势已逐步摆脱偏冷区间，呈现初步回暖态势，其中外汇市场和债券市场仍是主要制 约因素。 基于指数分析，报告预测货币政策保持宽松，建议金融市场有序引导增量资金入市，并抓住美联储降息 周期带来的机遇，扩大金融高质量开放，吸引国际耐心资本回流，为中国经济复苏提供新的动力。 全文如下： 中国金融形势分析报告（2025） 中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心主任、国家金融研究员副院长马勇 大湾区经济网讯，在2025年11月20日举行的中国金融形势指数专题发布会上，中国人民大学中国财政金 融政策研究中心主任、国家金融研究员副院长马勇发布并解读了中国金融形势指数（2025）最新分析报 告。该指数是在中国人民大学财政金融学院院长庄毓敏教授的亲自带领下，研究团队经过一年左右的系 统研发、一年左右 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced a slight decline, currently reported at 98.93, with a decrease of 0.01% [1] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September increased by 3% year-on-year, which was below the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 2.9% [1] - Core inflation for September rose by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the slowest growth in three months and falling short of the market expectation of 0.3% [1] Group 2 - The market has fully priced in two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each for the remainder of the year, following the CPI data [1] - The dollar index showed mixed performance last Friday, initially gaining support before facing downward pressure, ending the day with a doji pattern [2] - Key resistance for the dollar index is noted at the 98.85 level, with a critical focus on whether it can close below this level to avoid further downward pressure [2]

Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 14, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.034, 4.674, 3.478 respectively [3]. - The latest changes for all economies were 0.000; weekly changes varied from - 0.119 (Japan) to 0.233 (Brazil); monthly changes ranged from - 0.203 (New Zealand) to 0.115 (South Korea); annual changes were from - 0.314 (China) to 0.672 (UK) [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 14, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.520, 3.952, 1.957 respectively [3]. - The latest change for the US was - 0.080, others were 0.000; weekly changes were from - 0.120 (US) to 0.052 (Australia); monthly changes ranged from - 0.050 (US) to 0.174 (Australia); annual changes were from - 0.316 (Italy) to 0.530 (Japan) [3]. Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates - On October 14, 2025, the exchange rates of the dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc. were 5.521, 108.000 respectively, with 0.00% latest changes [3]. - Weekly changes were from 0.17% (Malaysian ringgit) to 3.73% (Brazilian real); monthly changes were from 0.05% (South African rand) to 2.74% (South Korean won); annual changes were from 1.31% (Brazilian real) to 8.41% (South Korean won) [3]. Major Economies' Stock Indexes - On October 14, 2025, the values of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc. were 6552.510, 45479.600, 22204.430 respectively [3]. - The latest changes were all 0.00%; weekly changes were from - 3.26% (Mexican stock index) to 6.76% (Nikkei); monthly changes were from - 0.13% (Mexican stock index) to 12.14% (South Korean stock index); annual changes were from - 11.17% (Thai stock index) to 39.23% (South Korean stock index) [3]. Credit Bond Indexes - On October 14, 2025, the values of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - area investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were 3529.690, 265.945 respectively [3]. - The latest changes were all 0.00%; weekly changes were from - 0.62% (US high - yield credit bond index) to 0.34% (euro - area investment - grade credit bond index); monthly changes were from - 0.23% (US high - yield credit bond index) to 0.60% (emerging economies investment - grade credit bond index); annual changes were from 3.99% (euro - area investment - grade credit bond index) to 10.95% (emerging economies high - yield credit bond index) [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3865.23, 4539.06, 2961.10 respectively, with涨跌 of - 0.62%, - 1.20%, - 0.21% respectively [4]. Valuation - The PE(TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc. were 14.14, 11.84, 34.27 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.05, 0.06, - 0.78 respectively [4]. Risk Premium - The 1/PE - 10 interest rates of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc. were 3.70, 5.77, - 0.38 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00 respectively [4]. Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, etc. were - 2111.40, - 1261.00, - 56.21 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 708.51, - 422.23, - 56.21 respectively [4]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 25762.33, 8089.59, 2191.94 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.00, 949.57, 334.11 respectively [4]. Main Contract Premium/Discount - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 31.86, - 2.70, - 184.85 respectively, with amplitudes of - 0.70%, - 0.09%, - 2.57% respectively [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.170, 105.775, 107.865, 105.665 respectively, with涨跌 of 0.08%, 0.03%, 0.06%, 0.02% respectively [5]. - The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3535%, 1.4736%, 1.5810% respectively, with daily changes of - 13.00 BP, - 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP respectively [5].

Core Insights - In September, the offshore (CNH) RMB depreciated against the USD while the onshore (CNY) RMB appreciated, with a daily average price difference of 67 basis points (BP), a decrease of 13 BP from the previous month [1][3]. Group 1: Offshore RMB Deposits in Hong Kong and Taiwan - As of August 2025, offshore RMB deposits in Hong Kong increased to 967.96 billion yuan, up 3.2% from the previous month, while Taiwan's deposits decreased to 120.59 billion yuan, down 3.0% [2]. Group 2: Offshore RMB Foreign Exchange Market - On September 30, the CNH/USD exchange rate closed at 7.1287, a depreciation of 0.09% from the previous month, while the CNY/USD exchange rate closed at 7.1186, an appreciation of 0.20% [3]. - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose by 0.21%, the BIS currency basket index rose by 0.20%, and the SDR currency basket index remained unchanged [3]. Group 3: Offshore RMB Bond Market - In September, the offshore RMB bond market issued 121 bonds, an increase of 11 bonds from the previous month, with a total issuance amount of 291.004 billion yuan, up 77.4% [5]. Group 4: Offshore RMB Money Market - By the end of September, the CNH HIBOR rates for overnight, 7-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods were 1.8127%, 1.6218%, 1.7100%, and 1.9688%, respectively, with changes of +22 BP, +5 BP, -3 BP, and +5 BP compared to the previous month [6]. - The average interest rate differentials between offshore and onshore borrowing rates showed mixed trends, with some periods experiencing declines and others increases [6]. Group 5: Dynamics of Foreign Institutions in Domestic Interbank Market - As of the end of September, the total number of foreign institutions participating in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market reached 237, an increase of 1 from the previous month [7]. - The total number of foreign institutions and their products in the domestic interbank currency market reached 5775, an increase of 20 from the previous month [7]. Group 6: Trading Volume of Foreign Institutions - In the domestic interbank foreign exchange market, the total trading volume for foreign institutions was 33,086.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.4% compared to the previous month [8]. - The trading volume in the domestic interbank bond market for foreign institutions totaled 9,648.90 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.6% [8].

Core Insights - A significant increase in U.S. Treasury bill issuance has led to reduced liquidity in the financial sector, raising concerns among investors about potential funding market pressures in September [1] Group 1 - The surge in Treasury bill issuance has been a recent trend, impacting overall liquidity levels in the financial markets [1] - Investor sentiment is shifting towards caution due to fears of a possible squeeze in funding markets as September approaches [1]

Core Insights - The offshore (CNH) and onshore (CNY) RMB appreciated against the USD in August, with the average daily price difference increasing by 18 basis points (BP) to 80 BP compared to the previous month [1][3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index and indices referencing the BIS and SDR currency baskets decreased by 0.20%, 0.13%, and 0.28% respectively from the end of the previous month [1][3] Offshore RMB Foreign Exchange Market - On August 29, the CNH/USD exchange rate closed at 7.1221, appreciating by 1.23% from the end of the previous month, while the CNY/USD exchange rate closed at 7.1330, appreciating by 0.84% [3] - The average daily swap point difference between CNH and CNY increased by 24 BP to 89 BP [4] Offshore RMB Bond Market - In August, 110 offshore RMB bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 1640.87 billion, representing an increase of 178.2% from the previous month [5] Offshore RMB Money Market - As of the end of August, the CNH HIBOR rates for overnight, 7-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods rose by 51 BP, 29 BP, 2 BP, and 10 BP respectively compared to the end of the previous month [6] - The average interest rate spread between offshore and onshore borrowing rates remained stable for overnight and 7-day periods, while the 3-month and 1-year periods saw an increase of 1 BP [6] Dynamics of Foreign Institutions in Domestic Interbank Market - As of the end of August, the total number of foreign institutions participating in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market reached 236, an increase of 3 from the previous month [7] - The number of foreign institutions and their products in the domestic interbank currency market increased by 15 to a total of 5755 [7] Trading Volume in Domestic Interbank Market - In August, the total trading volume of foreign institutions in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market was 37336.51 billion, a decrease of 6.9% [8] - The trading volume in the domestic interbank bond market for foreign institutions totaled 11573.91 billion, a decrease of 21.2% [8]

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies continue their earlier upward trend, while stock market declines have narrowed due to comments from Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari, which have put pressure on the dollar and boosted risk appetite [1] - The MSCI index, which measures emerging market currencies, rose by 0.2%, with the Colombian peso and South African rand leading the gains [1] - Similar stock market indices experienced slight declines, indicating a mixed performance in the equity markets [1]

Group 1 - The currencies of Mexico, Chile, and Colombia continue to decline, reaching intraday lows [1]

Core Insights - Emerging market currency index retraced gains following the release of U.S. employment data [1] Group 1 - The U.S. employment data had a significant impact on emerging market currencies, leading to a reversal of previous gains [1]

Group 1 - Asian markets opened lower on Monday, with both currencies and stock markets declining due to heightened investor panic following the U.S. attack on Iran, which has raised concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies [1] - The South Korean won led the decline among Asian currencies, contributing to a 0.3% drop in the Bloomberg Asian Dollar Index, while the Indonesian rupiah also weakened, prompting the central bank to intervene in the market [1] - Brent crude oil prices are nearing $80 per barrel, leading to inflationary pressures globally and impacting economic growth, particularly for net oil-importing Asian currencies [1] Group 2 - The 30-day correlation between Brent crude futures and the Asian Dollar Spot Index has reached -0.45, the most negative since March 2022, indicating potential risk linkage effects [2] - According to Wells Fargo, the Indian rupee, South Korean won, Thai baht, and Philippine peso are likely to be the most affected currencies, with concentrated long positions in the won and baht potentially leading to short-term weakness [2] - Concerns over the U.S. potentially revoking export exemptions for technology to China have led to significant sell-offs in chip stocks, particularly impacting the Taiwanese stock market [2]