Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Views - The metal packaging industry is experiencing a "reverse involution" trend, with recommendations for companies like Orijin and Shengxing [5] - White cardboard prices are set to increase, indicating a potential recovery in industry profitability [5] - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for September was lower than expected, suggesting a potential recovery in the U.S. real estate chain demand [5] Summary by Sections 1. Home Furnishing - In September, the retail sales of furniture from enterprises above designated size increased by 16.2% year-on-year, while the residential construction area decreased by 5.1% year-on-year [5][34] - Hangzhou announced a limited-time subsidy for home purchases, providing 100,000 yuan in consumption vouchers for eligible buyers [5] - The home furnishing sector is at historical low valuations, presenting left-side layout opportunities [5] 2. Paper and Packaging - As of October 24, 2025, prices for various paper types showed mixed trends, with white cardboard increasing by 37 yuan/ton and boxboard by 55.4 yuan/ton [5][57] - The industry is expected to see strong demand in Q4 due to upcoming promotions and holidays, with boxboard and corrugated paper prices likely to remain strong [5] - The report highlights the importance of companies with sufficient self-supplied fiber and well-structured capacity, recommending companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper [5] 3. Light Industry Consumption - The report notes that the dental care company Dengkang achieved a revenue of 1.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [5][7] - The company is expected to enhance its marketing efforts in Q4, capitalizing on the e-commerce sales peak [5] 4. Export Chain - The U.S. housing market shows signs of recovery, with September home sales increasing by 1.5% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year [5] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong export capabilities, such as Jiangxin and Dream Lily [5] 5. New Tobacco Products - British American Tobacco launched a new heated tobacco device in Italy, indicating a growing market potential for new tobacco products [5][10] 6. Textile and Apparel - The report highlights the performance of various apparel brands during the Tmall Double 11 sales event, with Uniqlo and Bosideng leading in women's wear [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the home furnishing sector, new tobacco, and packaging industries, while indicating a stable recovery in the paper industry and light consumer goods [3][4][11]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows signs of stabilization in domestic demand, with a year-on-year decrease in transaction area narrowing to -22.46% as of October 17. The external sales are boosted by strong performances on platforms like Amazon, with notable growth in GMV for several companies [4][9]. - In the new tobacco sector, there is a strong push for regulatory enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S., which may benefit established brands. The HNB product line is expanding globally, with significant market entry planned in Italy [10][19]. - The paper and packaging industries are experiencing price adjustments due to supply-demand dynamics, with expectations for price increases in corrugated and boxboard paper. The metal packaging sector is also anticipated to see improvements in profitability due to upcoming price hikes [11][12]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are stabilizing, with transaction areas showing a reduced decline. External sales are recovering, particularly in the U.S. market, aided by a favorable exchange rate and potential interest rate cuts [4][9]. - Key companies to watch include 欧派家居, 索菲亚, and 顾家家居, which are expected to have high earnings growth and dividend support [4][9]. New Tobacco - Regulatory support for legal brands is strengthening in the U.S., with 80% of voters favoring stricter enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes. The HNB product line is set to expand in major markets [10][19]. - Recommended companies include 思摩尔国际 and 中烟香港, which are positioned well for growth [10]. Paper and Packaging - Prices for various paper products are expected to rise due to supply constraints and increased demand. The metal packaging sector is also poised for profitability improvements with anticipated price hikes [11][12]. - Key players include 裕同科技 and 太阳纸业, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters [11]. Light Consumer Goods and Trendy Toys - The light consumer goods sector is gearing up for a busy Q4 with the Double Eleven shopping festival, focusing on brand penetration and product innovation [15][16]. - The trendy toy market is seeing strong performance from leading brands, with new product launches and collaborations enhancing market presence [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light industry and paper sector for Q3 2025, indicating a favorable investment rating [1]. Core Insights - The globalization of supply chains is accelerating changes in the packaging landscape, with leading companies increasing their market share and improving profitability [2]. - Q3 2025 is expected to see a divergence in performance among companies, influenced by supply chain advantages and growth potential [2]. - The report highlights specific companies with projected revenue and profit growth, indicating a robust performance in certain segments despite challenges in others [5][6]. Summary by Sections Packaging and Printing - Companies like Yutong Technology and Baosteel Packaging are expected to see slight revenue growth, while others like Meiyingsen may face revenue pressure but maintain profit growth [2][3]. - The overall packaging sector is benefiting from the global supply chain shift, with many companies reporting stable or improving profit margins [2][3]. Export Sector - Companies such as Jiangxin Home and Qianjiang Motorcycle are projected to experience significant revenue growth, with estimates of over 30% for Q3 2025 [6][7]. - The report notes that the export sector is showing resilience, with several companies adapting well to changing market conditions [6][7]. Two-Wheel and Motorcycle Sector - Companies like Aima Technology and Spring Wind Power are expected to report revenue growth of over 10% in Q3 2025, driven by seasonal demand and market adjustments [10][11]. - The sector is experiencing a mix of growth and challenges, with some companies facing declines due to regulatory changes [10][11]. Home Furnishing Sector - The report indicates that companies like Oppein Home and Kuka Home are facing revenue declines, while others like Joy Home are expected to show resilience with slight growth [12][14]. - The home furnishing market is under pressure from policy changes, but some segments are performing better than others [12][14]. Light Consumer Goods - Companies such as Dongkang Oral and Jeya are projected to see significant revenue and profit growth, with estimates indicating over 60% growth for Jeya in Q3 2025 [13][16]. - The light consumer goods sector is showing a positive trend, with several companies benefiting from strong demand and effective marketing strategies [13][16]. Paper Industry - The report anticipates a mixed performance in the paper sector, with some companies like Sun Paper expected to see profit declines due to price pressures, while others may experience stability [18][19]. - The paper industry is facing challenges from raw material price fluctuations, but certain segments are expected to maintain profitability [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, new tobacco, and packaging industries, while indicating a stable recovery for the paper industry and a potential upward trend for trendy toys and light consumer goods [3][4][6]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to benefit from the easing of real estate policies, with a focus on companies with high dividend support and growth certainty for 2025 [4][9]. - The new tobacco sector shows resilience, with significant growth in e-cigarette exports to the U.S. and a favorable regulatory environment for heated tobacco products [10][11]. - The paper packaging industry is experiencing stable demand, with price increases anticipated due to seasonal demand and inventory reductions [11][12]. - The light consumer goods and trendy toys sectors are witnessing innovation and brand development, with a focus on new product cycles and market expansion [13][14]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic demand is expected to recover as financial policies are implemented, while export figures show a slight decline due to tariffs imposed by the U.S. [4][9]. - Key companies to watch include 欧派家居, 索菲亚, and 顾家家居, which are positioned for growth in the domestic market [4][9]. New Tobacco Sector - E-cigarette exports from China increased by 4.25% year-on-year, with exports to the U.S. rising by 32.62% [10][16]. - Companies like 思摩尔国际 are highlighted for their strategic positioning in the market [10][11]. Paper Packaging Sector - Prices for various paper products remain stable, with a notable increase in demand leading to anticipated price hikes post-holidays [11][12]. - Recommended companies include 裕同科技 and 太阳纸业, which are expected to benefit from market conditions [11][12]. Light Consumer Goods and Trendy Toys - The sector is focusing on new product launches and expanding offline channels, with companies like 泡泡玛特 and 名创优品 leading the way [13][14]. - The AI glasses market is also emerging, with significant growth potential as new technologies are introduced [13][14]. Key Data and Trends - The report tracks various industry metrics, including furniture export data, domestic retail sales, and the performance of key sectors [16][23][34].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The home furnishing sector remains under pressure, but government subsidy policies and the increasing demand for home renovation are expected to boost consumer willingness [6][8] - The paper and packaging sector is entering a traditional peak season, with anticipated recovery in downstream demand, particularly for cost-leading companies [6] - The light industry consumer segment is seeing a recovery in stationery procurement and growth in domestic brands in the cosmetics sector [2][9] - The export chain is expected to benefit from interest rate cuts, enhancing demand and improving the competitive landscape for leading companies [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Home Furnishing - The sector is facing significant pressure due to a decline in new housing starts and sales, with new construction area down 18.3% year-on-year [6][12] - Government subsidies are expected to stimulate consumer demand, while the trend of upgrading existing homes is gaining traction [6] - AI applications are enhancing product differentiation in smart home products [6] Paper and Packaging - September marks the beginning of the traditional peak season for paper, with expectations of demand recovery [6] - The metal packaging sector is at a breakeven point, and mergers among leading companies may improve the competitive landscape [6] Light Industry Consumption - In the stationery market, procurement is gradually recovering, and domestic brands are gaining market share in cosmetics due to their affordability and positive reputation [2][9] - The jewelry sector is experiencing high growth, particularly in mid-range brands focusing on traditional gold products [2][9] Export Chain - Anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are expected to boost export demand [7] - Leading companies are mitigating tariff impacts through capacity transfer and efficiency improvements [7] Electric Two-Wheelers - The industry is entering a traditional peak season, with positive growth expected in Q3 due to proactive inventory stocking [8] - The new national standards are likely to drive structural changes in consumer preferences and enhance average selling prices [8] Beauty and Personal Care - Domestic brands are expected to achieve steady growth due to their competitive pricing and effective marketing strategies [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the home furnishing sector in Q4, with many companies currently at historical low valuations and attractive dividend yields, suggesting a timely opportunity for left-side positioning [3]. - The introduction of new HNB products by British American Tobacco (BAT) in European markets is expected to enhance market share, with a target of reaching 50 million consumers of smoke-free products by 2030 and transitioning to a smoke-free enterprise by 2035 [3]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report notes that in August, the residential construction area decreased by 28.4% year-on-year, while the sales area of residential properties saw a 10% decline [8]. - Despite the pressure on the real estate sector, the report emphasizes the opportunity for investment in home furnishing companies due to their low valuations and high dividend yields [8]. - Key companies to watch include leading brands in soft furnishings and custom furniture, such as Kuka Home, Sophia, and Oppein [8]. Paper and Packaging - As of September 19, 2025, the prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 4800 RMB/ton (down 18.75 RMB), while corrugated paper increased to 2791.25 RMB/ton (up 20 RMB) [8]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong supply chain management and fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper [8]. Light Industry Consumption - In August, sales of sanitary napkins on e-commerce platforms increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with the Nais Princess brand showing a significant growth of 41% [10]. - The report anticipates a boost in sales for personal care brands as the e-commerce sales season approaches, highlighting companies like Dengkang Oral Care and Steady Medical [10]. Export Chain - The report notes that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to improved demand in the U.S. real estate sector, positively impacting export-oriented home furnishing companies [10]. - Companies to monitor in the export chain include Zhongxin Co., Jiangxin Home, and Zhejiang Natural [10]. New Tobacco Products - The report discusses the launch of BAT's GLO HILO in several European markets, projecting a continued increase in market share for HNB products [10]. - It recommends focusing on companies that have established partnerships in the electronic cigarette and HNB product sectors, such as Smoore International [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [5] Core Views - The report highlights the recent optimization of housing policies in Shenzhen, which is expected to boost the home furnishings sector, indicating a left-side layout opportunity for the home furnishings sector as some leading companies have returned to positive growth in their mid-year reports [2][6] - The light industry manufacturing sector is projected to see improved profitability as domestic demand stabilizes and external demand recovers due to tariff easing, with a focus on companies with strong alpha characteristics in exports [2][6] - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including paper manufacturing, home furnishings, packaging, and oral care, based on their potential for recovery and growth [2][6] Summary by Sections Home Furnishings - The report notes that the home furnishings sector is experiencing a recovery with many companies' valuations at historical lows, suggesting a favorable investment environment as the fourth quarter approaches [6] - Companies to watch include leading soft furniture brands and custom home furnishing companies, which are expected to benefit from policy changes and internal reforms [6] Paper Manufacturing - The report provides detailed pricing data for various paper products, indicating a mixed trend with some prices increasing, such as corrugated paper, while others like double glue paper have decreased [6][45] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the paper sector, particularly for companies with integrated supply chains and strong domestic sales expectations [6][45] Light Industry Consumption - The report highlights strategic partnerships and product launches in the oral care sector, particularly for companies like Dengkang Oral Care, which is expected to benefit from new product introductions [8] - It also notes the growth in the AI/AR consumer market, suggesting investment opportunities in companies involved in this technology [8] Export Chain - The report mentions Vietnam's strong export performance despite tariff challenges, indicating a favorable outlook for companies with robust overseas supply chains [8] - It recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on international market opportunities [8] Packaging - The report discusses the investment in environmentally friendly materials and the strategic moves by companies like Baixinglong to enhance their market position in the eco-friendly packaging sector [11] - It suggests monitoring companies that are adapting to the green trend in packaging [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that major companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Gujia Home and Xilinmen, have reported Q2 results that slightly exceed market expectations, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment towards home furnishing valuations [2][5] - The packaging paper prices have shown a slight recovery since August, with the upcoming peak season expected to boost demand for recycled paper [2][5] - The electronic cigarette sector, particularly companies like Smoore International, is benefiting from stricter regulations in the US and a recovery in Europe, leading to stable revenue and profit growth [2][5] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Gujia Home reported a Q2 revenue increase of 7.2% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 5.4%, with a 50%+ growth in functional product retail for H1 [5] - Xilinmen's Q2 revenue grew by 4.3% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 22.4% [5] - The report suggests that many home furnishing companies are currently valued at historical lows, presenting an opportunity for valuation recovery [5] Paper and Packaging - As of August 22, 2025, the prices for various paper types are as follows: double glue paper at 4925 CNY/ton (-25 CNY), copper plate paper at 5110 CNY/ton (-40 CNY), and box board paper at 3484.2 CNY/ton (+29.2 CNY) [5][51] - Nine Dragons Paper is expected to report a profit of approximately 2.1 to 2.3 billion CNY for FY2025, a year-on-year increase of 165% to 190% [5][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with well-structured capacity and sufficient fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International [5] Consumer Goods - The report notes that Steady Medical achieved a revenue of 5.3 billion CNY in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, with a net profit of 490 million CNY, up 28.1% [7] - The consumer goods sector is seeing strong growth in high-end medical supplies and personal care products [7] Export Chain - Home Depot reported Q2 2025 revenue of 45.3 billion USD, a nearly 5% year-on-year increase, slightly below market expectations [5] - The report indicates a positive trend in large orders, with transactions over 1000 USD increasing by 2.6% year-on-year [5] New Tobacco Products - Smoore International's H1 revenue reached 6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, with a focus on ODM and proprietary brand businesses [5][9] - The report suggests that the new tobacco product market is expected to grow as international tobacco companies launch HNB products [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - E-commerce sales for personal care products showed improvement in July, with notable growth in brands like Princess Nais and All Cotton Era, leading to continued recommendations for companies like Steady Medical and Haoyue Care [2][4] - The approval of double-glue paper futures and the current low prices of pulp and paper suggest a potential price recovery, with a focus on leading companies like Sun Paper [2][4] - The US-China tariff suspension for 90 days is expected to alleviate pressure on the domestic export chain, with a focus on companies with overseas supply chain layouts [2][4] Summary by Sections E-commerce and Personal Care - In July, e-commerce platform sales for sanitary napkins, toothpaste, diapers, and tissue paper showed month-on-month recovery, with growth rates of +5% for sanitary napkins and +24% for toothpaste [4][5] - Brands such as Princess Nais (+53%), All Cotton Era (+34%), and Jieting (+25%) maintained high growth, with recommendations for Steady Medical and Haoyue Care [4][5] Paper Industry - As of August 15, 2025, prices for various paper types were reported: double-glue paper at 4950 CNY/ton (-43.75 CNY), copper plate paper at 5150 CNY/ton (-170 CNY), and box board paper at 3484.2 CNY/ton (+20.8 CNY) [4][5] - The report highlights the potential for price recovery in the paper industry due to supply-demand imbalances and recommends companies like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology [4][5] Home Furnishing - In July, retail sales of furniture increased by +20.6% year-on-year, while building materials saw a decline of -0.5% [4][5] - Recommendations include leading custom furniture companies such as Oppein Home and Sofia, as well as soft furniture leaders like Mousse and Joyous [4][5] Export Chain - The US-China tariff suspension is expected to ease export pressures, with a focus on companies like Zhongxin and Jiangxin Home [4][5] - The report notes that shipping costs are gradually decreasing, with the CCFI and SCFI indices down by -0.6% and -2.0% respectively [4][5] Packaging - Meiyingsen reported a revenue of 1.949 billion CNY in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of +5.46% [4][5] - Recommendations include companies in biodegradable packaging and metal packaging sectors, highlighting the stable operations and dividend value of leading packaging firms [4][5] New Tobacco Products - The report suggests monitoring new tobacco products as international leaders launch HNB products, with a focus on companies like Simoer International [4][5] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector showed a decline, with a focus on leading brands like Hailan Home and Anta [4][5] - The report indicates a need for attention on outdoor economy trends and companies like Zhejiang Nature and Mugaodi [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - Suzano announced a price increase of $20 per ton for commodity pulp in the Asian market for August, indicating a potential recovery in pulp and paper prices from current cyclical lows [2][4] - The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the paper industry, with various paper types experiencing different price movements, suggesting a recovery trend driven by supply-demand dynamics [4][50] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy catalysts in the home furnishing sector, particularly in light of recent housing policy optimizations in Beijing [4][31] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Recent policy changes in Beijing allow families to purchase multiple properties outside the city center, which is expected to stimulate the housing market [4][31] - Major home furnishing companies are currently valued at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities as market sentiment improves [4][31] Paper Industry - As of August 8, 2025, various paper prices are reported: double glue paper at 4993.75 CNY/ton (unchanged), copper plate paper at 5320 CNY/ton (unchanged), white card paper at 3955 CNY/ton (down 35 CNY/ton), box board paper at 3463.4 CNY/ton (up 12.8 CNY/ton), and corrugated paper at 2582.5 CNY/ton (up 46.25 CNY/ton) [4][50] - The report notes that the current pulp and paper prices are at cyclical lows, with expectations for a rebound due to supply-demand imbalances [4][50] Consumer Goods - The report discusses the launch of new health-focused products in the personal care sector, indicating a shift towards higher quality and compliance with health standards [4][6] - The collaboration between Morning Glory stationery and popular anime IPs is expected to enhance brand visibility and sales [4][6] Export Chain - In July, China's total exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN countries [4][6] - The report suggests that the ongoing shift of production capacity to Southeast Asia may enhance the long-term competitiveness of companies with overseas supply chain layouts [4][6] Packaging - New regulations in Shanghai aimed at reducing single-use plastics are expected to drive demand for recyclable and biodegradable packaging solutions [4][6] - The report recommends companies involved in eco-friendly packaging solutions as potential investment opportunities [4][6] New Tobacco Products - The introduction of new electronic cigarette products in the UK is anticipated to boost market share for refillable devices [4][6] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the new tobacco sector, particularly for companies with strong partnerships and product offerings [4][6] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with notable increases in revenue for key players despite some challenges [4][6] - The report identifies leading companies in the apparel sector as potential investment opportunities based on their performance [4][6]