加密巨头Tether成黄金市场新势力，截至9月30日Tether持有116吨黄金，成为除主要央行外最大的单一黄金持有者。今年金价在两波上涨中累计上涨约 2000美元，第二波涨势恰与Tether购金提速同步。同时这也意味着如果稳定币需求因任何原因急剧逆转，压力将不可避免地传导至大量黄金储备。 Tether对黄金的热情可能反映了其对代币化实物黄金的长期押注。 加密巨头成为黄金市场新势力 当投资者将黄金视为避险资产大举买入时，他们或许未曾料到，今年推动金价屡创新高的关键买家之一，竟是加密货币世界中最具争议的稳定币发行商 Tether。这家数字资产巨头的黄金购买量一度超过央行，正在重塑传统避险资产的供需格局。 据媒体周四报道，投资银行Jefferies测算显示，截至9月30日，全球最大稳定币USDT的发行商Tether持有116吨黄金，价值约140亿美元，使其成为除 主要央行外最大的单一黄金持有者，持有量与韩国、匈牙利或希腊等国的官方储备相当。仅在第三季度，Tether购入约26吨黄金，占当期全球黄金总需 求的2%，相当于已知央行购买量的12%。 这一发现揭示了2025年金价飙升56%背后的隐秘力量。今年金价在两波上 ...

摘要今日周三（11月26日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4140美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 4147.51美元/盎司，涨幅0.42%，最高上探至4147.63美元/盎司，最低触及4129.07美元/盎司。目前来 看，伦敦金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周三（11月26日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4140美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4147.51 美元/盎司，涨幅0.42%，最高上探至4147.63美元/盎司，最低触及4129.07美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金 短线偏向看涨走势。 此外，9月PPI同比涨2.7%，超预期且高于前值。经济学家Oliver Allen指出，停滞的劳动力市场叠加关 税推高价格拖累实际收入，消费放缓或持续。 就业走软与经济指标震荡的"违和感"，令12月议息会议的美联储陷入两难。因最新就业、CPI数据需12 月中旬才公布，市场预计鲍威尔或领导一次"盲降"。经济学家Jan Hatzius表示，12月10日议息前几无数 据能阻止降息，尽管9月非农超预期，但部分替代指标显示10月就业再现损失。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 技术上，金价近几周调整，但仍未跌破10周均线支撑，本周走势又据此反弹走强， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration of China have announced a new tax policy regarding gold transactions, which aims to enhance the competitiveness and pricing power of China's gold market while ensuring tax fairness and risk prevention [1]. Tax Policy Details - From now until the end of 2027, value-added tax (VAT) will be exempted for members or clients selling standard gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1]. - For transactions that do not involve physical delivery, the exchanges will exempt VAT; for those that do, the VAT treatment will depend on whether the gold is for investment or non-investment purposes, applying different VAT policies accordingly [1]. Market Impact - The policy is seen as an improvement to existing regulations, allowing for a clearer distinction between the commodity and financial attributes of gold [1]. - Experts believe that this adjustment will support the development of China's gold market, enhancing its international competitiveness and contributing to the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center [1].

Core Insights - Global official gold reserves increased by 166 tons in Q2 2023, reaching historical highs, with central banks expected to continue purchasing over 1000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024 [2][3] - 95% of surveyed central banks anticipate an increase in global official gold reserves in the next 12 months, with 43% planning to increase their own gold holdings [2] - The freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves by the US and its allies has triggered a crisis of trust in the US dollar-based international monetary system, leading to a surge in gold purchases by central banks [3][5] Gold as an Alternative to the Dollar - Gold is a non-nominal asset with physical form, immune to political interference, and can be stored under national control, making it a secure option in the current geopolitical climate [4] - Gold possesses unique attributes as a commodity, currency, and financial asset, independent of any nation's credit, thus serving as a hedge against currency devaluation and high debt levels [4] - The global daily trading volume of gold exceeds $100 billion, providing the liquidity that central banks require for reserve assets [4] Shift Towards Diversification - Central banks are adjusting asset allocation strategies, with a notable trend of "de-dollarization" emerging, particularly among emerging market countries like China, Russia, and India, as well as others like Turkey and Kazakhstan [5] - There is a clear trend towards diversifying international trade settlement currencies, with more countries opting for local currency settlements to reduce reliance on the US dollar [5] - The erosion of trust in the dollar's dominance is a gradual process, and while the dollar remains a key player in global finance, the shift towards a more diversified international monetary system is underway [5][6] Future Financial Landscape - The increasing demand for gold reflects a broader desire for a more equitable and diversified international monetary system, with gold playing a crucial role as a store of value and a symbol of financial sovereignty [5][6] - The development of digital currencies may further alter the existing financial landscape, potentially reducing dependence on traditional reserve currencies [6] - The ongoing transformation in the global financial system is complex and will involve market fluctuations and geopolitical tensions, as countries seek to balance security, liquidity, and profitability in their reserve strategies [6]

Group 1 - Gold futures experienced a significant drop of $377 within two hours, falling from a historical high of $4,398 to $4,021, coinciding with reports of a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - The market's reaction to the ceasefire announcement suggests a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as analysts draw parallels to past market behaviors during geopolitical tensions [5][6] - Central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, with the global share rising from 12.3% in 2020 to 21.7% in 2025, indicating a shift in investment strategies away from the US dollar [5][10] Group 2 - The US midterm elections are approaching, and aid to Ukraine has faced repeated obstacles in Congress, while the EU's energy reserves are projected to last only until January [6] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised gold futures margin requirements by 5.5% just before the market drop, reminiscent of actions taken during the 2008 financial crisis [8] - The current geopolitical landscape has led to a decline in the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, dropping to 48.5%, the lowest since the Bretton Woods system ended [12][14] Group 3 - The US has invested $113 billion in Ukraine, yet the military situation remains stagnant, raising questions about the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency [13] - Emerging market central banks are increasing their gold holdings not out of fear of war, but due to concerns over the stability of the dollar system [15] - The narrative surrounding gold's price movements may be misinterpreted, as the real battle lies in central banks' strategies and their increasing gold reserves [18]

Group 1 - The central bank's gold reserves have reached a historical high, indicating a long-term strategic focus rather than short-term market reactions [1][2] - Gold serves as a crucial stabilizer in the national reserve system, complementing foreign exchange reserves and special drawing rights, due to its unique properties [2][3] - The continuous increase in gold reserves by central banks reflects a systematic hedge against the declining trust in the US dollar and the need for asset protection amid inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2 - The current "gold rush" differs structurally from historical bull markets, with multiple central banks, including those from Russia and India, systematically increasing their gold holdings [3] - The rise of digital currencies and blockchain technology is reshaping the traditional monetary system, providing a new context for gold's value [3] - The participation in the gold market has broadened significantly, with retail investors and various financial instruments contributing to increased liquidity and price volatility [3]

Group 1 - Shanghai Pudong aims to build a benchmark financial technology cluster by leveraging the policy advantages of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and promoting the application of cutting-edge financial technology [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange emphasizes the need for a secure and efficient gold market infrastructure while enhancing service quality and risk management capabilities [1] - The approval of the first "photovoltaic + hydropower" REIT project marks a significant milestone in asset diversification for public REITs [1] Group 2 - The successful listing of the Southern Universal Data Center REIT on the Shanghai Stock Exchange represents a significant step in supporting technology finance and green finance [2] - Shanghai has introduced measures to promote the high-quality development of commercial health insurance, focusing on innovative drug and medical device support [2][3] - The Shanghai Clearing House has launched online services for credit derivatives bilateral clearing, enhancing market capacity [4] Group 3 - The issuance of the first "Zhangjiang Technology Loan" by Agricultural Bank of China in Shanghai supports specialized enterprises in the Zhangjiang Science City [5] - The successful launch of the first project company satellite leasing business by China Merchants Jinling marks a significant advancement in supporting China's aerospace strategy [5] - The issuance of the first structured deposit product linked to the daily temperature index in the Yangtze River Delta by Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank showcases innovation in financial products [6] Group 4 - The establishment of the Shanghai Clinical Transformation Fund aims to enhance the ecosystem for clinical innovation and facilitate the transfer of medical innovations [7] - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued guidelines to support new industrialization, emphasizing the importance of financial services for the real economy [8] - New regulations from the China Futures Association target unfair competition in the futures industry, promoting a shift from price wars to value creation [12]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3358.42 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The highest price reached today was $3358.42 per ounce, while the lowest was $3344.72 per ounce, showing volatility within the trading range [1] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed negotiations with Russia to promote a ceasefire and address related issues, despite recent large-scale attacks between the two nations [2] - Russia conducted significant airstrikes on Ukraine, resulting in casualties and damage to infrastructure, while claiming to have intercepted 40 Ukrainian drones [2] Group 3 - Current gold price trends indicate a potential risk of a downturn to $3000 or $2600, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the May moving average [3] - If the price falls below the May moving average, it could lead to a wider range of fluctuations, with a possibility of further declines to around $2500 if the upward trend line is breached [3] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests multiple rate cuts, which may reduce the likelihood of significant price drops below $3000, presenting opportunities for bullish positions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged over 25% since January 1, 2025, reaching a historic high of $3,500 per ounce, currently fluctuating around $3,300, with differing opinions on whether the gold bull market has ended or will continue to rise [1][4] Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - Citigroup predicts a decline in gold prices due to reduced investment demand from improved global economic growth and geopolitical tensions easing, forecasting prices to drop to $2,500 to $2,700 per ounce by mid-2026 [1] - Conversely, Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook, projecting gold prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 [1] - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that 81% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest since the survey began in 2018 [4] - By June 2025, this figure rose to 95%, indicating a strong trend of central banks accumulating gold [4] Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Central banks are projected to purchase a record 1,100 tons of gold in 2024, a 5.8% increase year-on-year, with expectations to exceed 1,250 tons in 2025 [4] - In May 2025, central banks net purchased 20 tons of gold, demonstrating their commitment to gold accumulation despite high prices [5] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war, contribute to the perception of gold as a safe-haven asset [6][8] - The relationship between gold and the US dollar is shifting, with gold increasingly seen as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic instability [11] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions suggest that it may be a favorable time for investors to consider buying gold, as it serves as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [1][11] - The "golden circulation framework" proposed by Hong Academy emphasizes the importance of monitoring key indicators to assess gold's long-term trends [3]

Group 1: Impact of Investor Behavior on Gold Prices - Investor behavior is the most direct factor influencing gold price fluctuations, with different types of investors making decisions based on their expectations and strategies, especially during periods of economic uncertainty [2] - When economic data is poor, investors often turn to gold as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and driving prices up [2] - Market expectations regarding economic events can lead to significant buying or selling actions, further impacting gold prices [2] Group 2: Role and Influence of Hedge Funds - Hedge funds play a crucial role in the gold market due to their market experience and financial strength, using complex trading strategies to influence price trends [4] - Large-scale trading operations by hedge funds can significantly affect market dynamics, especially during periods of high volatility [4] - Hedge funds may increase their gold holdings if they anticipate price increases, or sell off quickly if they believe the price rise is unsustainable, thus amplifying market fluctuations [4] Group 3: Central Banks and Monetary Policy - Central banks hold substantial gold reserves, and their buying or selling actions can have profound effects on the market [5] - An increase in gold reserves by central banks typically raises market demand and pushes prices higher, while a reduction can lead to oversupply and price declines [5] - Central banks' monetary policies, such as interest rate changes, also indirectly affect gold prices, with loose policies generally increasing gold's attractiveness [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis in Gold Price Movements - Technical analysis plays a significant role in the gold market, with traders using charts and indicators to inform their buying and selling decisions [7] - Breakthroughs of key technical levels can trigger substantial buying or selling, leading to sharp price movements [7] - The widespread use of technical analysis among various market participants contributes to increased volatility in gold prices [7] Group 5: Global Macroeconomic Factors - The global economic environment is a key determinant of gold price fluctuations, with gold demand rising during economic uncertainty or crises [8] - Economic recovery can lead to decreased demand for gold as investors shift towards riskier assets, resulting in price declines [8] - Inflation and currency fluctuations also impact gold prices, with rising inflation typically driving prices up as gold is seen as a hedge against inflation [8] Group 6: Market Sentiment and Price Volatility - Market sentiment significantly influences gold prices, with news and investor emotions rapidly altering supply and demand dynamics [10] - Optimistic market sentiment can lead to reduced demand for gold, while pessimistic sentiment often drives investors towards gold as a safe haven [10] - The phenomenon of "herding" among investors can exacerbate price volatility, as collective optimism or pessimism leads to increased trading activity [10]