行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 26 日 地产情绪升温，家居板块估值底部 向上；关注金属包装提价 看好 ——造纸轻工周报 2026/01/19-2026/01/23 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com ...

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Investment Ratings - The report provides a positive outlook on the new tobacco industry, indicating a steady upward trend, while the home furnishing and packaging sectors are stabilizing at the bottom [6][11][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the marketing strategies around the Spring Festival and Valentine's Day for trendy toys, with companies like Pop Mart and Blok launching limited series to enhance IP value and collectability [7][8]. - In the new tobacco sector, the necessity for domestic development is emphasized, with major players increasing investments in heated tobacco products (HNB) and innovative marketing strategies [11][12]. - The home furnishing market is experiencing a contraction in sales, with significant declines in both new and second-hand property transactions, but there are signs of potential recovery driven by policy support [13][14]. - The packaging industry is expected to benefit from a steady recovery in downstream demand, supported by growth in consumer goods sectors [15][16]. - The pet food industry is facing increased competition, leading to higher sales expense ratios, but listed companies are leveraging their financial advantages for mergers and acquisitions [21]. Summary by Sections Trendy Toys - Focus on marketing strategies for key holidays, with companies like Pop Mart and Blok launching special editions to enhance brand value [7]. - The integration of AI in toys is gaining traction, with companies like Kid King and JD.com developing AI products to meet family needs [8][9]. New Tobacco - The report notes a projected decline in electronic cigarette exports, with a focus on the need for innovation in the domestic market [11]. - Major tobacco companies are increasing their investments in HNB products, indicating a significant growth potential in this segment [12]. Home Furnishing - The report indicates a significant drop in property transactions, with new home sales down 29.23% year-on-year and second-hand home sales down 8.94% [13]. - Despite current challenges, there is optimism for recovery in the home furnishing sector due to supportive policies [14]. Packaging - The packaging sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with growth in consumer goods contributing positively to the industry [15][16]. - The report highlights price fluctuations in raw materials, particularly in the paper and aluminum sectors, which could impact packaging costs [15]. Pet Food - Increased competition in the pet food industry is leading to higher sales expenses, but established companies are positioned to benefit from consolidation opportunities [21]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand recognition and those actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions [21].

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Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4116.94 points, up 0.08%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.70% to 14255.12 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.54% to 3295.52 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 177.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - The precious metals sector led the gains, with stocks like Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Mining hitting the daily limit. The chip industry chain continued to strengthen, with companies such as Huatian Technology and Loongson Technology also reaching the daily limit. The lithium mining sector saw a rebound, with Shengxin Lithium Energy and Dazhong Mining hitting the daily limit. The oil and gas sector was active, with Huibo Technology and Intercontinental Oil & Gas also reaching the daily limit. Conversely, the consumer sector weakened, particularly in the liquor segment, and the banking sector experienced fluctuations and declines [2]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that Meta has initiated the AI glasses era in September 2023, with an expected product explosion in the industry by 2025. Companies like Google are anticipated to launch AI glasses products between 2026 and 2027. The inclusion of AI glasses in national subsidies by 2026 is expected to further boost consumer demand. The current challenges in AI glasses involve trade-offs among cost, weight, performance, and battery life. The optical display system is a critical component, with waveguide technology expected to become the mainstream direction in the future, potentially replacing smartphones as a comprehensive personal terminal. Lens manufacturers are currently focusing on sales channels and custom lenses to enhance average transaction value, with future opportunities in areas like waveguides and eye-tracking technology [3]. - CICC highlighted positive changes in real estate policies and supply-side dynamics. Since the second half of 2025, the transaction volume of new and second-hand homes has stabilized at a low level after adjusting for seasonal and year-on-year effects. On the supply side, there are signs of improvement, with a decrease in the volume of new land supply and a reduction in the number of high-tier cities offering land for sale [3]. Industry Developments - China's first offshore liquid rocket launch and recovery test platform is under construction in Yantai, Shandong. This platform is expected to be completed and begin testing around February 5, coinciding with the launch of a mainstream commercial liquid rocket. The Eastern Spaceport, as the only offshore launch mother port in China, has already successfully launched 137 satellites. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to develop a comprehensive commercial aerospace industry chain in Shandong, centered around cities like Yantai, Jinan, and Qingdao [4]. - Hangzhou aims to cultivate more than three internationally top-tier open-source foundational models by 2030, with the core AI industry revenue expected to exceed 600 billion yuan. The city plans to achieve a research and development investment intensity of 4.5% and support over 50,000 technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises [5]. ETF Trading Activity - There was a significant increase in trading volume for broad-based ETFs, with the SSE 50 ETF exceeding 15 billion yuan, marking the highest volume in ten years. Other ETFs, including the CSI 300 ETFs from various fund houses, also saw trading volumes surpassing 10 billion yuan [6].

凤凰网财经讯 1月21日，三大指数集体低开，沪指低开0.25%，深成指低开0.38%，创业板指低开 0.24%，商业航天、电网、AI应用等板块指数跌幅居前。 | | | | | 沪深京重要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 *● | 最新 | 涨幅% | | 张跌 | 张速% | 息手 | 现手 金额 | | 上证指数 | 4103.53 | -0.25 | -10.12 | 386/1663 | 0.05 | 577万 | 577万 87.30亿 | | 深证成指 | 14102.21 | -0.38 | -53.42 | 403/2303 | 0.18 | 8467 | 846万 128.94亿 | | 北证50 | 1508.78 | -0.58 | -8.82 | 85/168 | -0.18 | 8.46 7 | 1.88 7. 8.46万 | | 创业板指 | 3270.13 | -0.24 | -7.85 | 187/1135 | 0.55 | 185万 | 185万 48.00亿 | 外盘市场： 由 ...

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace Industry - The commercial aerospace industry is on an upward trend, with a positive outlook for future market performance[5] - Key focus areas include stable or potentially increasing value in manufacturing and launch sectors, as well as communication terminal components like baseband and RF chips[22] - Significant growth expected in satellite constellations, with G60 planning to launch 1,296 satellites by the end of 2027 and 15,000 by 2030, while GW plans to launch an average of 1,800 satellites annually post-2030[18] Group 2: Space Photovoltaic Equipment - New technologies such as heterojunction and perovskite are accelerating advancements in space photovoltaic applications, providing new demand scenarios[37] - The global supply landscape may change due to emerging applications, creating new incremental demand for equipment companies[37] - P-type HJT batteries are identified as the optimal choice for space photovoltaic technology due to their lightweight, high power density, and resistance to extreme environments[30] Group 3: Wind Power Sector - Goldwind Technology is a leading global wind power manufacturer, with a projected revenue of CNY 566.99 billion in 2024, reflecting a 12.37% year-on-year growth[49] - Taisheng Wind Power is expanding into commercial aerospace, with plans to start rocket storage tank production by mid-2026[54] Group 4: AI and AR Glasses - Meta's AI glasses are expected to double production capacity, driving market growth and enhancing consumer demand for high-end optical products[5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights various sectors including trendy toys, new tobacco, home furnishings, paper packaging, personal care, AI glasses, Xiaomi Group, pet food, and AI+3D printing, indicating a mixed outlook across these industries with some showing growth potential while others face challenges Trendy Toys - The collaboration between Honor and Pop Mart to launch the first trendy toy smartphone is expected to differentiate products in a competitive market, targeting younger consumers [8] - Despite a decline in overall online GMV for trendy toys, leading companies like Miniso and Bluku are experiencing significant growth, with Miniso's blind box category growing by 315% [10] New Tobacco - The cancellation of VAT export rebates for e-cigarettes is expected to pressure profits in the short term, but may benefit companies like Smoore in the long run as they can capture market share from smaller competitors [11] - The HNB market is anticipated to expand significantly with the upcoming launch of IQOS in the US [12] Home Furnishings - The domestic real estate market remains weak, with significant declines in new and second-hand home transactions [13] - Export figures show a decline for Chinese furniture, while Vietnam's furniture exports are growing, indicating a shift in regional competitiveness [14] Paper Packaging - The report notes fluctuations in paper prices, with a general decline in prices for various paper types, but anticipates a recovery in demand as packaging needs stabilize [15] - The overall retail growth in food, beverages, and daily necessities is expected to support the packaging sector's recovery [16] Personal Care and AI Glasses - The personal care sector shows mixed performance, with some brands experiencing growth while others decline [17] - Meta's plans to significantly increase the production capacity of AI glasses signal a positive outlook for the sector, potentially boosting demand across the supply chain [18] Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi continues to lead in the smartphone market, with expectations to integrate self-developed chips and AI models into their products by 2026 [19] - The company aims to enhance its brand positioning and profitability through technological advancements and strategic product launches [20] Pet Food - The pet food market is projected to grow, with a focus on new product introductions and market expansion strategies [23] - Recent data indicates a decline in GMV for pet food on major e-commerce platforms, highlighting competitive pressures [24] AI+3D Printing - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is expected to grow, driven by new product launches and community engagement initiatives [33] - Companies are focusing on lowering entry barriers and enhancing user experience to penetrate the market further [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the durable consumer goods industry [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates a long-term consumer bull market driven by new consumption trends, with four main themes expected to lead the way: AI+ consumption, overseas expansion, emotional value, and silver economy [1][8] - Historical cycles indicate that the A-share market exhibits 3-4 year cyclical fluctuations, with technology, cyclical consumption, and manufacturing rotating sequentially [1] - The report draws parallels between the upcoming "anti-involution" reforms starting in July 2025 and the "supply-side" reforms initiated in October 2015, suggesting similar transmission paths despite differing contexts [1] Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Outlook for 2026 - The report highlights that the consumer bull market led by new consumption will differ from the 2016-2019 period, focusing on AI+ consumption, overseas expansion, emotional value, and silver economy as key growth areas [8] - AI+ consumption is expected to be a major opportunity throughout 2026, with significant advancements in technology and consumer engagement [12] - The overseas expansion of brands is seen as a critical growth driver, particularly as urbanization rates plateau and the focus shifts to international markets [23] - Emotional value consumption is projected to grow significantly, driven by changing demographics and economic conditions, with sectors like pet care and collectibles gaining traction [28] - The silver economy is anticipated to reach a market size of 71 trillion yuan by 2023, with substantial growth expected as the aging population increases [40] 2. Sector Performance Tracking - The report tracks various sectors, indicating a mixed outlook: - Trend toys are showing upward momentum, with companies like Pop Mart leading the market [43] - The new tobacco sector is expected to benefit from regulatory tightening, favoring compliant manufacturers [45] - The home goods sector is experiencing pressure from weak real estate transactions, but there are signs of stabilization [47] - The paper and packaging sector is seeing price fluctuations, with expectations of recovery as supply tightens [49] - The pet food market is evolving, with a shift towards premium products and increased focus on health and wellness [31] 3. Key Data and Trends - The report provides insights into key data trends, such as the significant growth in the 3D printing market, which is projected to reach $24.61 billion by 2024 [17] - The export of 3D printers from China has seen substantial increases, with a year-on-year growth of 136.2% in export value [25] - The emotional value market is expected to continue expanding, with pet care and collectibles being highlighted as key areas of growth [28]

Core Insights - The consumer electronics industry is experiencing a blurred boundary between different sectors, with companies like DJI and Insta360 entering each other's core business areas, indicating a competitive landscape driven by technological integration and market saturation [2][19]. Group 1: Market Developments - DJI launched its first panoramic camera, Osmo 360, in July 2025, priced at 2999 yuan, which is 800 yuan lower than Insta360's flagship product [20]. - Insta360 responded by releasing the Insta360 X4 Air, claiming to be the "world's lightest 8K panoramic camera," and announced plans to enter the drone market with the "Yingling Antigravity" drone, expected to be trialed in late 2025 [3][20]. - On December 5, 2025, Insta360 launched the world's first panoramic drone, the Yingling Antigravity A1, starting at 7999 yuan, or 6799 yuan after subsidies [21]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Experts suggest that the cross-industry competition between DJI and Insta360 is a natural outcome of technological advancement, with the integration of panoramic photography and drones representing a significant market opportunity [23]. - The AI glasses market is also witnessing similar trends, with major players like Xiaomi and Alibaba launching their products, indicating a shift towards AI glasses as a new consumer electronics frontier [5][25]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global smart glasses market is projected to see significant growth, with a reported shipment of 406.5 million units in the first half of 2025, marking a 64.2% year-on-year increase [26]. - In the panoramic camera market, Insta360 held a 75% market share in Q3 2025, while DJI had a 17.1% share, reflecting intense competition and rapid market expansion [28]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The influx of competitors in the same market may lead to "pseudo-innovation," where companies engage in minor improvements and price competition rather than substantial advancements [26][28]. - The rising cost of essential components, such as a high-end 12GB LPDDR5X memory chip reaching 70 USD, could impact the pricing strategies of AI glasses and flagship smartphones [29]. Group 5: Strategic Directions - Companies are urged to shift from being mere product manufacturers to becoming solution providers that integrate their strengths with new technologies to capture future market opportunities [30]. - Focusing on deepening the connection between products and specific use cases is essential for creating sustainable competitive advantages in the evolving landscape [32][34].