行 业 及 产 业 机械设备/ 专用设备 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 刘宏达 A0230524020002 liuhd@swsresearch.com 研究支持 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 何佳霖 A0230523080002 hejl@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 01 日 银价飙升光伏承压，激光技术助力 降本 看好 ——光伏激光设备行业点评 行业点评 重点公司估值表 | 代码 | 简称 | 2026/1/30 | | 归母净利润（亿） | | | | PE | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 市值（亿） ...

Group 1: Silver Price Trends - Silver prices reached a historical high, surpassing $69 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of approximately 138% since 2025 [1] - As of the latest closing, the main Shanghai silver futures contract rose by 6.06%, exceeding 16,200 yuan per kilogram [1] - The continuous rise in silver prices is attributed to both the increase in gold prices and heightened industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver is projected to grow significantly, with silver usage in the PV sector expected to reach 6,146 tons by 2024, accounting for 17% of total silver demand [2] - The total industrial demand for silver is forecasted to increase from 15,300 tons in 2016 to 20,400 tons in 2024 [2] - The supply of silver has been relatively stagnant, leading to a supply deficit of 7,762 tons in 2022, 6,240 tons in 2023, and an estimated 4,632 tons in 2024 [2] Group 3: Technological Developments in Photovoltaics - The PV industry is under pressure from rising silver costs, prompting manufacturers to develop low-silver and silver-free technologies [3] - Silver-coated copper technology is being promoted by leading PV silver paste manufacturers, with mass production expected to scale up significantly by late 2025 [4][7] - Companies are implementing copper plating techniques, which have shown to reduce costs and improve durability compared to traditional silver paste methods [6][8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Implications - If the adoption of silver-coated copper and silver-free technologies continues to progress, it could lead to a substantial decrease in silver consumption in the PV sector [8] - Current silver consumption in mainstream TOPCon batteries has already decreased from 106 mg per cell to 86 mg per cell, with expectations for further reductions [8] - Despite the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, signs of a potential reversal in the market may emerge, with projections indicating a 10% decline in global new PV installations by 2026 [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unprecedented surge in silver prices, driven by the photovoltaic (PV) industry, which is reshaping the demand dynamics for silver and positioning it as a focal point in global capital markets [1][3][12] - Silver demand from the photovoltaic sector is projected to reach 6,146 tons in 2024, accounting for 17% of total silver demand, marking a 9 percentage point increase from 2021 [3] - The financial appeal of silver has increased as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, with historical data indicating that a 1% depreciation of the dollar correlates with a 1.5-2% increase in silver prices [3] Group 2 - Global silver mine production has been declining for five consecutive years, expected to drop to 820 million ounces (approximately 2,580 tons) by 2025, a 12% decrease from the peak in 2020 [4] - The cost of silver paste in solar cells has risen significantly, with silver paste costs exceeding 30% of total costs for certain battery types, squeezing profit margins for companies [6] - Various technological advancements are emerging to reduce silver usage, including silver-coated copper and copper plating, which are in different stages of development and production [7][8][9] Group 3 - A potential turning point in silver supply and demand dynamics is anticipated in 2026, with a projected 10% decline in global PV installations and a significant reduction in silver demand growth [10] - The structure of silver demand is shifting, with the photovoltaic sector's share expected to decrease from 18% in 2023 to below 8% by 2030, as alternatives like copper plating gain traction [12] - The global silver recycling potential is expected to increase significantly as the lifecycle of solar panels leads to more silver being recovered from decommissioned units [13] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is entering a new phase of cost reduction, with silver paste costs projected to drop below 5% of total costs, enhancing the competitiveness of high-efficiency technologies [15] - China's photovoltaic industry is reducing its reliance on imported silver, improving supply chain security and impacting the revenue of silver-exporting countries [16] - Future scenarios for silver supply and demand balance suggest varying price trends based on the penetration of silver alternatives, with potential price declines if copper plating becomes more prevalent [17] Group 5 - Investment strategies in precious metals should focus on identifying certainty amid volatility, with attention to changes in COMEX silver inventories indicating potential risks [18] - The surge in silver prices is driving increased demand for copper, benefiting companies in the copper sector as they capitalize on the shift from silver to copper in various applications [18]

Group 1: Silver Price Trends - Silver prices have reached a historical high, surpassing $69 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of approximately 138% since 2025 [1] - As of the latest close, Shanghai silver futures rose by 6.06%, breaking through the 16,200 yuan per kilogram mark [1] - The continuous rise in silver prices is attributed to both increasing gold prices and heightened industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver is projected to grow significantly, with silver used in the PV sector expected to reach 6,146 tons by 2024, accounting for 17% of total silver demand [2] - The total industrial demand for silver is forecasted to increase from 15,300 tons in 2016 to 20,400 tons in 2024 [2] - The supply of silver has been relatively stagnant, leading to a supply deficit of 7,762 tons in 2022, 6,240 tons in 2023, and an estimated 4,632 tons in 2024 [2] Group 3: Technological Developments in Photovoltaics - The PV industry is under pressure from rising silver costs, prompting manufacturers to develop low-silver and no-silver technologies [3] - Companies like Dike Co. and Aiko Solar are advancing silver-coated copper and copper plating technologies, respectively, to reduce silver usage [3][4] - The implementation of these technologies could significantly lower silver consumption in PV cells, with Dike Co. achieving a silver content reduction to 20% in their products [5] Group 4: Future Market Implications - The ongoing development and potential widespread adoption of low-silver and no-silver technologies may lead to a substantial decrease in silver demand in the future [5] - Despite current supply shortages, signs of a potential supply-demand reversal are emerging, with expectations of a decline in new global PV installations by 10% in 2026 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The rising silver prices have made silver paste the largest cost component in photovoltaic (PV) modules, surpassing silicon materials and glass [1][6]. Group 1: Cost Structure of Photovoltaic Modules - As of December 2025, silver paste is projected to account for 17% of the total cost of PV modules, while silicon materials and glass will account for 14% and 13%, respectively [1][6]. - The recent surge in silver prices has prompted leading PV manufacturers to increase module prices, with Longi Green Energy raising prices by 0.04 CNY/W for N-type modules and 0.02 CNY/W for BC modules [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Adjustments - The price adjustments come during a year-end sales push, where manufacturers initially aimed to increase sales volume by lowering prices, but the unexpected rise in silver prices forced an earlier price hike [3][4]. - The current market price for PV modules is approximately 0.75 CNY/W following these adjustments [3]. Group 3: Industry Responses to Silver Price Increases - Manufacturers are attempting to mitigate the impact of rising silver prices by optimizing the silver content in silver paste and exploring alternative materials, although significant reductions in silver usage are limited due to quality assurance [6]. - The development of silver-coated copper technology is ongoing but not yet ready for large-scale application [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Analysts suggest that companies should enhance supply chain management to reduce the impact of raw material price fluctuations and consider entering the component recycling business to lower costs [7]. - Predictions indicate that PV module prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching between 0.88 CNY/W and 0.99 CNY/W next year, driven by the need for profitability across the supply chain [7].

Core Viewpoint - Major photovoltaic component manufacturers have started to raise prices due to a sudden increase in silver prices, with price hikes ranging from 0.02 to 0.05 yuan/W for various types of components [1][2]. Price Adjustments - As of December 17, 2023, leading manufacturers like Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar have announced price increases for their photovoltaic components, with the adjusted prices approximately at 0.75 yuan/W [1][2]. - The price adjustments were accelerated due to unexpected silver price hikes, which were initially planned for January 2024 [2]. Silver Price Impact - The global silver price has seen a significant increase this year, rising from around 220 yuan/ounce at the beginning of the year to over 450 yuan/ounce, with the most notable increase occurring in the fourth quarter [4]. - Silver paste has become the largest cost component in photovoltaic modules, surpassing silicon materials, with silver paste accounting for 17% of total costs, while silicon materials account for 14% and photovoltaic glass for 13% [4]. Industry Responses - Manufacturers are attempting to mitigate the impact of rising silver prices by optimizing the silver content in silver paste and exploring alternative materials, although these alternatives are still in the development phase [5]. - Analysts suggest that companies should enhance supply chain management and consider component recycling to reduce raw material costs and create a closed-loop supply chain [5]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that if effective price control measures are implemented, photovoltaic component prices could continue to rise, potentially reaching between 0.88 yuan/W and 0.99 yuan/W in 2024 [5]. - A low operating rate may be necessary for profitability across the industry, which could lead to increased fixed costs and further elevate component prices due to rising commodity prices [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the trend of silver reduction in the photovoltaic industry is recognized, and the company is actively developing low-cost metallization solutions and products [1] - The company is collaborating closely with leading enterprises in the downstream sector to contribute positively to the sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry [1]