每日经济新闻 2026年2月11日，光伏板块回暖，光伏ETF华夏（515370）上涨0.75%，持仓股聚合材料涨超8%， 协鑫集成涨超5%，拉普拉斯涨超4%。 中信证券研报指出，在银价暴涨的背景下，光伏电池组件头部厂商有望加快贱金属浆料替代，带动 行业成本梯度分化加剧，叠加需求结构向高效产品持续升级，落后产能或面临加速淘汰压力；同时，爱 旭股份带头打响光伏行业知识产权反内卷第一枪，具备核心技术和专利优势的头部厂商有望脱颖而出。 预计光伏电池组件行业"反内卷"有望迎来加速，推荐电池组件、浆料和设备龙头厂商。 光伏ETF华夏（515370）及其联接基金（012885/012886）跟踪中证光伏产业指数，涉及光伏产业 链上、中、下游企业，包括硅片、多晶硅、电池片、电缆、光伏玻璃、电池组件、逆变器、光伏支架和 光伏电站等，能够更好的反映光伏产业整体表现。其跟踪指数太空光伏含量18.49%，指数维度全市场 排名第一。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承 ...

"白银今年涨得实在是太猛了，盘中一度涨幅超过6成，1月底忍不住追高了场内的国投白银LOF基金，前两天还高兴，但是这几 天要哭了，天天跌停，从现在的抛压来看，短时间内估计跌停板难以打开。"广州的一名投资人罗女士向记者抱怨。 追高追到山顶上，这或是近期在场内投资国投白银LOF基金投资人的共同心声。由于白银价格大幅波动，国投白银LOF基金已 经连续三个跌停了，不过即使如此，目前的溢价仍然高达64.6%。 其实在上周五和本周一的大跌之后，白银正在大幅"收复失地"，目前现货白银已经逼近88美元/盎司，但是国投白银LOF基金仍 在"跌跌不休"，造成这一"惨案"的原因主要是由于场内溢价过大。 东吴期货贵金属研究员曹可安表示，近期白银基金调整幅度较大，他倾向于是前期获利颇丰的盈利盘止盈行为；加之白银市场 规模相对黄金较小，波动率远大于黄金；最后近期美联储的沃什提名加剧了市场的恐慌预期，共同造成短期贵金属市场的剧烈 波动。 后市来看，曹可安认为短期调整不改长期上行趋势，建议在白银投资方面近期需等待市场止跌企稳后再择机做多，当下波动率 仍旧较高，风险相对较大；实物白银投资方面需通过银行等正规渠道购买。长期来看，需密切关注政策与供 ...

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace industry is experiencing upward trends due to accelerated progress in domestic and international computing constellations[5] - Key focus areas include satellite payloads, satellite platforms, space photovoltaics, application terminals, operational services, and rocket support[3] - The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation has significant external assets, indicating strong expectations for mergers and acquisitions[3] Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry - Rising silver prices are increasing cost pressures in the photovoltaic industry, making "de-silvering" a critical demand for battery mass production[3] - The adoption of N-type batteries has become mainstream, with silver paste costs in components rising to 21.4% by January 2026[30] - The laser technology is pivotal in supporting the de-silvering transition, enhancing efficiency and reducing material costs[31] Group 3: AI Glasses Market - Global sales of AI glasses are rapidly increasing, with Meta contributing significantly to growth, projecting 6 million units sold in 2025[3] - By 2026, global AI glasses sales are expected to reach 16 million units, with non-display AI audio and photography glasses being major contributors[40] - In Q4 2025, domestic and overseas sales of AI glasses were 24.5 million and 425 million units, respectively[40]

银价的下跌直接利好电池与 组件环节。 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI制图 在这个逻辑闭环里，"法币信用贬值"是最大的助燃剂。 沃什一旦上任，市场预计这位新美联储掌舵人主张通过缩表来回收过剩本币，从而重塑美元作为硬通货的 信用。 周五银价暴跌，周末资本市场就开始积极挖掘"银价暴跌利好"概念。 而，光伏电池就是工业耗银的大户。 白银开始暴跌。 而扣动扳机的，极有可能是一个叫凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的男人。 随着这位美联储主席热门候选人的上位概率飙升，全球资产定价逻辑正在发生剧烈反转。 此前，银价暴涨逻辑主要有3： 1.美元长期弱势预期强化了白银的"准货币资产"地位，吸引大量保值和避险资金流入，使其从"工业配角"转 变为"终极价值储藏工具"； 2.美联储降息压低名义利率和实际利率，大幅降低了白银这类无息实物资产的持有机会成本，激发其金融属 性，吸引配置型和交易型资金大规模入场； 3.工业需求刚性增长，供给弹性极低导致2021年以来持续性供给短缺且缺口可能进一步扩大。 对于还在产能过剩泥潭中挣扎的光伏行业来说，这无疑是一针强心剂——但这究竟是"起死回生"的灵药， 还 ...

行 业 及 产 业 机械设备/ 专用设备 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 刘宏达 A0230524020002 liuhd@swsresearch.com 研究支持 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 何佳霖 A0230523080002 hejl@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 01 日 银价飙升光伏承压，激光技术助力 降本 看好 ——光伏激光设备行业点评 行业点评 重点公司估值表 | 代码 | 简称 | 2026/1/30 | | 归母净利润（亿） | | | | PE | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 市值（亿） ...

Group 1: Silver Price Trends - Silver prices reached a historical high, surpassing $69 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of approximately 138% since 2025 [1] - As of the latest closing, the main Shanghai silver futures contract rose by 6.06%, exceeding 16,200 yuan per kilogram [1] - The continuous rise in silver prices is attributed to both the increase in gold prices and heightened industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver is projected to grow significantly, with silver usage in the PV sector expected to reach 6,146 tons by 2024, accounting for 17% of total silver demand [2] - The total industrial demand for silver is forecasted to increase from 15,300 tons in 2016 to 20,400 tons in 2024 [2] - The supply of silver has been relatively stagnant, leading to a supply deficit of 7,762 tons in 2022, 6,240 tons in 2023, and an estimated 4,632 tons in 2024 [2] Group 3: Technological Developments in Photovoltaics - The PV industry is under pressure from rising silver costs, prompting manufacturers to develop low-silver and silver-free technologies [3] - Silver-coated copper technology is being promoted by leading PV silver paste manufacturers, with mass production expected to scale up significantly by late 2025 [4][7] - Companies are implementing copper plating techniques, which have shown to reduce costs and improve durability compared to traditional silver paste methods [6][8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Implications - If the adoption of silver-coated copper and silver-free technologies continues to progress, it could lead to a substantial decrease in silver consumption in the PV sector [8] - Current silver consumption in mainstream TOPCon batteries has already decreased from 106 mg per cell to 86 mg per cell, with expectations for further reductions [8] - Despite the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, signs of a potential reversal in the market may emerge, with projections indicating a 10% decline in global new PV installations by 2026 [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unprecedented surge in silver prices, driven by the photovoltaic (PV) industry, which is reshaping the demand dynamics for silver and positioning it as a focal point in global capital markets [1][3][12] - Silver demand from the photovoltaic sector is projected to reach 6,146 tons in 2024, accounting for 17% of total silver demand, marking a 9 percentage point increase from 2021 [3] - The financial appeal of silver has increased as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, with historical data indicating that a 1% depreciation of the dollar correlates with a 1.5-2% increase in silver prices [3] Group 2 - Global silver mine production has been declining for five consecutive years, expected to drop to 820 million ounces (approximately 2,580 tons) by 2025, a 12% decrease from the peak in 2020 [4] - The cost of silver paste in solar cells has risen significantly, with silver paste costs exceeding 30% of total costs for certain battery types, squeezing profit margins for companies [6] - Various technological advancements are emerging to reduce silver usage, including silver-coated copper and copper plating, which are in different stages of development and production [7][8][9] Group 3 - A potential turning point in silver supply and demand dynamics is anticipated in 2026, with a projected 10% decline in global PV installations and a significant reduction in silver demand growth [10] - The structure of silver demand is shifting, with the photovoltaic sector's share expected to decrease from 18% in 2023 to below 8% by 2030, as alternatives like copper plating gain traction [12] - The global silver recycling potential is expected to increase significantly as the lifecycle of solar panels leads to more silver being recovered from decommissioned units [13] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is entering a new phase of cost reduction, with silver paste costs projected to drop below 5% of total costs, enhancing the competitiveness of high-efficiency technologies [15] - China's photovoltaic industry is reducing its reliance on imported silver, improving supply chain security and impacting the revenue of silver-exporting countries [16] - Future scenarios for silver supply and demand balance suggest varying price trends based on the penetration of silver alternatives, with potential price declines if copper plating becomes more prevalent [17] Group 5 - Investment strategies in precious metals should focus on identifying certainty amid volatility, with attention to changes in COMEX silver inventories indicating potential risks [18] - The surge in silver prices is driving increased demand for copper, benefiting companies in the copper sector as they capitalize on the shift from silver to copper in various applications [18]

Group 1: Silver Price Trends - Silver prices have reached a historical high, surpassing $69 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of approximately 138% since 2025 [1] - As of the latest close, Shanghai silver futures rose by 6.06%, breaking through the 16,200 yuan per kilogram mark [1] - The continuous rise in silver prices is attributed to both increasing gold prices and heightened industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver is projected to grow significantly, with silver used in the PV sector expected to reach 6,146 tons by 2024, accounting for 17% of total silver demand [2] - The total industrial demand for silver is forecasted to increase from 15,300 tons in 2016 to 20,400 tons in 2024 [2] - The supply of silver has been relatively stagnant, leading to a supply deficit of 7,762 tons in 2022, 6,240 tons in 2023, and an estimated 4,632 tons in 2024 [2] Group 3: Technological Developments in Photovoltaics - The PV industry is under pressure from rising silver costs, prompting manufacturers to develop low-silver and no-silver technologies [3] - Companies like Dike Co. and Aiko Solar are advancing silver-coated copper and copper plating technologies, respectively, to reduce silver usage [3][4] - The implementation of these technologies could significantly lower silver consumption in PV cells, with Dike Co. achieving a silver content reduction to 20% in their products [5] Group 4: Future Market Implications - The ongoing development and potential widespread adoption of low-silver and no-silver technologies may lead to a substantial decrease in silver demand in the future [5] - Despite current supply shortages, signs of a potential supply-demand reversal are emerging, with expectations of a decline in new global PV installations by 10% in 2026 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The rising silver prices have made silver paste the largest cost component in photovoltaic (PV) modules, surpassing silicon materials and glass [1][6]. Group 1: Cost Structure of Photovoltaic Modules - As of December 2025, silver paste is projected to account for 17% of the total cost of PV modules, while silicon materials and glass will account for 14% and 13%, respectively [1][6]. - The recent surge in silver prices has prompted leading PV manufacturers to increase module prices, with Longi Green Energy raising prices by 0.04 CNY/W for N-type modules and 0.02 CNY/W for BC modules [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Adjustments - The price adjustments come during a year-end sales push, where manufacturers initially aimed to increase sales volume by lowering prices, but the unexpected rise in silver prices forced an earlier price hike [3][4]. - The current market price for PV modules is approximately 0.75 CNY/W following these adjustments [3]. Group 3: Industry Responses to Silver Price Increases - Manufacturers are attempting to mitigate the impact of rising silver prices by optimizing the silver content in silver paste and exploring alternative materials, although significant reductions in silver usage are limited due to quality assurance [6]. - The development of silver-coated copper technology is ongoing but not yet ready for large-scale application [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Analysts suggest that companies should enhance supply chain management to reduce the impact of raw material price fluctuations and consider entering the component recycling business to lower costs [7]. - Predictions indicate that PV module prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching between 0.88 CNY/W and 0.99 CNY/W next year, driven by the need for profitability across the supply chain [7].

Core Viewpoint - Major photovoltaic component manufacturers have started to raise prices due to a sudden increase in silver prices, with price hikes ranging from 0.02 to 0.05 yuan/W for various types of components [1][2]. Price Adjustments - As of December 17, 2023, leading manufacturers like Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar have announced price increases for their photovoltaic components, with the adjusted prices approximately at 0.75 yuan/W [1][2]. - The price adjustments were accelerated due to unexpected silver price hikes, which were initially planned for January 2024 [2]. Silver Price Impact - The global silver price has seen a significant increase this year, rising from around 220 yuan/ounce at the beginning of the year to over 450 yuan/ounce, with the most notable increase occurring in the fourth quarter [4]. - Silver paste has become the largest cost component in photovoltaic modules, surpassing silicon materials, with silver paste accounting for 17% of total costs, while silicon materials account for 14% and photovoltaic glass for 13% [4]. Industry Responses - Manufacturers are attempting to mitigate the impact of rising silver prices by optimizing the silver content in silver paste and exploring alternative materials, although these alternatives are still in the development phase [5]. - Analysts suggest that companies should enhance supply chain management and consider component recycling to reduce raw material costs and create a closed-loop supply chain [5]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that if effective price control measures are implemented, photovoltaic component prices could continue to rise, potentially reaching between 0.88 yuan/W and 0.99 yuan/W in 2024 [5]. - A low operating rate may be necessary for profitability across the industry, which could lead to increased fixed costs and further elevate component prices due to rising commodity prices [5].