Core Insights - The latest USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of the week ending August 31, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. cotton is at 51%, down from 54% the previous week and up from 44% the same time last year [1] - As of the same week, the U.S. cotton blooming rate is at 28%, an increase from 20% the previous week but lower than the 35% recorded last year and the five-year average of 30% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic market, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. In the international market, short - term US cotton may maintain a volatile trend. The report suggests short - term trading [48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded this week with a weekly increase of 1.5%. ICE cotton futures declined and then rebounded, with a weekly decrease of 1.01% [10] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 75 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 85 yuan/ton [14] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In July, 50,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [19] 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In the first half of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons compared with the second half of July [23] 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In July, the yarn inventory was 27.67 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.65 days. The grey cloth inventory was 36.14 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.82 days [27] 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S yarn increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S yarn increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S yarn increased by 40 yuan/ton [32] 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 539. The number of warehouse receipts was 6,720, and the valid forecasts were 2, with a total of 6,722 [38] 3.1.8 US Cotton Export Situation - As of August 21, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 179,300 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 0 bales [40] 3.1.9 US Weather Situation - In the US, the total area in drought (D1 - D4) is 27.7%, with D0 - Abnormally Dry at 17.3%, D1 - Moderate Drought at 10.9%, D2 - Severe Drought at 10.8%, D3 - Extreme Drought at 5.5%, and D4 - Exceptional Drought at 0.5% [47] 3.2后市展望 3.2.1 Domestic Market - Xinjiang cotton has basically entered the yield - determining stage. The weather in the main producing areas is ideal, and cotton is growing well. The market expects a slight increase in cotton yield per mu, and the total cotton output in Xinjiang in the 2025/26 season may reach 7 million tons. The expected purchase price of seed cotton is 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg. Textile orders in the peak season are starting, and the operating rate has increased slightly. The 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota has little impact on the market. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [48] 3.2.2 International Market - US cotton declined and then rebounded. The weak US dollar due to the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has boosted the price of US cotton. There is some drought in the southern US, but the impact is limited. The good export situation and high excellent - rate of US cotton suggest that short - term US cotton may maintain a volatile trend [48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2601) closed higher with a weekly increase of about 1.5%, and the cotton yarn futures contract (2511) rose 0.4% [6][18]. - Internationally, the price of ICE cotton futures fluctuates repeatedly due to the influence of the US dollar. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and the spot price is firm. China's total quota for the sliding - duty tariff processing trade of cotton imports in 2025 is 200,000 tons [6]. - There are certain expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season. In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops [6]. - Before the new cotton is listed, the supply of old cotton is tight, and with the expectation of improved demand, the center of the main cotton contract has moved up slightly, but the medium - term space may be restricted by the increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton's main 2601 contract rose 1.5% this week, and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract rose 0.4% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, ICE cotton futures prices fluctuate due to the US dollar. Domestically, cotton is de - stocking, supply is tight before new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season. China's 2025 cotton planting area has increased, and weather impact on new crops should be watched. The main cotton contract may rise slightly but be restricted by new cotton production [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fluctuated this week with a weekly increase of about 0.01%. As of August 19, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions decreased by 3.28% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 8.67% month - on - month [10]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of the week ending August 21, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current market year was 179,300 bales, including a net increase of 4,400 tons in exports to the Chinese mainland. As of August 27, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.2 cents per pound, down 0.89% month - on - month [13]. - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton's main 2601 contract rose 1.5% this week, and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract rose 0.4%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 69,475, and in cotton yarn futures was - 869. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,514, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 62 [18][23][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,328 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn C32S spot index price was 20,760 yuan per ton. As of August 28, 2025, the CY index: OEC10s (air - jet yarn) was 14,820 yuan per ton [38][50]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 27, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,385 yuan per ton, down 0.79% month - on - month; the sliding - duty tariff port pick - up price was 14,220 yuan per ton, down 0.43% month - on - month. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for different varieties had no month - on - month change [55]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of August 27, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton at the sliding - duty tariff port pick - up price (M) was 1,122 yuan per ton, and at the 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,957 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [61]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton yarn import volume was 780,000 tons [65]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [69]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [73]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Clothing Retail**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly retail value of clothing was 66.85 billion yuan, down 25.57% month - on - month; the year - on - year monthly retail value of clothing was 0.2%, down 88.24% month - on - month [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - Related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided in the summary part [77]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Xinnong Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Xinnong Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided in the summary part [80].

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have shown an upward trend, with recent trading indicating a slight increase in price, reflecting market dynamics and external factors affecting cotton production [1][2]. Price Movement - On August 28, ICE cotton futures opened at 66.68 cents per pound and reached a current price of 66.74 cents per pound, marking a 0.14% increase. The intraday high was 66.80 cents per pound, while the low was 66.65 cents per pound [1]. - On August 27, the cotton futures closed at 66.72 cents per pound, down by 0.04% from the previous day, with an opening price of 66.66 cents, a high of 66.88 cents, and a low of 66.55 cents [2]. Market Conditions - The Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index reported at 71.84 cents per pound on August 27, reflecting a 0.10% increase from the previous day but a 2.34% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in cotton futures warehouse receipts, with a total of 6,861 contracts, down by 121 contracts from the previous trading day [2]. Weather Impact - Recent heavy rainfall in the semi-arid southwestern region has posed a significant threat to cotton crops, with reports indicating that over 8,000 acres of farmland in the Fazilka region have been flooded, adversely affecting the growth stage of cotton plants and diminishing harvest prospects [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is actively promoting regional sustainable development through enhanced cooperation in various sectors, including connectivity, agriculture, industry, green industries, and digital economy, especially in the context of geopolitical conflicts and trade barriers [1][2]. Group 1: Connectivity Enhancement - The SCO serves as a significant platform for the Belt and Road Initiative, facilitating infrastructure cooperation and trade facilitation among member states [2]. - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total import and export volume with SCO member countries via land transport reached 677.4 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4%, while air transport reached 251.01 billion yuan, with a growth of 44.6% [2]. Group 2: Economic Transformation and Upgrading - The SCO provides a platform for sharing experiences in agricultural technology and industrial collaboration, enhancing the sustainability and autonomy of member countries' economic development [3]. - Uzbekistan has adopted Chinese drip irrigation technology, significantly improving cotton yield and water resource management [3]. - The establishment of the China-Belarus "Great Stone" Industrial Park has attracted over 150 enterprises from 15 countries, fostering industrial clusters in various sectors [3][4]. Group 3: New Cooperation Opportunities - The SCO countries are diversifying cooperation in green technology and digital infrastructure, which supports sustainable development [6]. - The 100 MW photovoltaic power station in Kazakhstan exemplifies successful green energy collaboration, aiding the region's transition to a low-carbon economy [6]. - The establishment of the "Silk Road E-commerce" comprehensive service base aims to enhance cross-border e-commerce and logistics [6]. Group 4: Digital Economy and Technological Innovation - The development of 5G networks in Kyrgyzstan has increased internet penetration from 43% to over 70%, showcasing the impact of digital infrastructure [6]. - The digital healthcare platform in Tajikistan provides remote medical consultations, benefiting remote populations [6]. - The SCO's focus on digital cooperation and multilateral coordination is expected to enhance member states' autonomous development capabilities [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report - Cotton Fluctuates, Awaits Demand Improvement [2] - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [3] - Researcher Qualification: Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F03109641, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Z0018457 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 closed lower with a weekly decline of about 0.64%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract fell 0.62% [7][20] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. Although inland textile enterprises have no profit, there are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth [7] - In general, tight supply of old crops and expected demand improvement are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the expected increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and control risks [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract both declined this week [7][20] - **Market Outlook**: Tight supply of old crops, expected demand improvement, new crop growth affected by weather. Short - term trend positive, medium - term suppressed by new crop increase [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December US cotton contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 0.19%. As of August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.66% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 1.04% month - on - month, and the net position decreased by 8.35% month - on - month [10] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: The US current market - year cotton export sales increased by 105,400 bales, and shipments were 123,300 bales. New sales were 138,800 bales, lower than last week. As of August 18, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 79.15 cents per pound, down 0.31% month - on - month [15] - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 48,516, and in cotton yarn futures was - 380 lots. Cotton futures warehouse receipts were 7,198 lots, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 64 lots [20][26][33] - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,457 yuan/ton [35] - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,243 yuan/ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20,700 yuan/ton. As of August 19, 2025, CY index:OEC10s was 14,800 yuan/ton [41][52] - **Futures Basis**: The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,213 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract was 640 yuan/ton [47] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 19, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of imported cotton increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price increased by 0.20% month - on - month. The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn C32S, C21S, and JC32S all declined slightly [59] - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of August 19, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 894 yuan/ton, and that of 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,650 yuan/ton [63] 3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [67] - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, the imported cotton yarn volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn volume was 780,000 tons [71] - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [75] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month, and the export value of clothing and accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [79] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Retail**: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 534.13 billion yuan, up 20.42% month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.5%, down 3.85% month - on - month [83] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week [84] - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Agriculture Development Co., Ltd.**: P/E ratio trend [89]

Group 1 - India has suspended an 11% import duty on cotton until September 30, signaling a willingness to address U.S. concerns regarding agricultural tariffs and alleviating pressure on its domestic apparel industry [1] - The temporary exemption allows U.S. cotton farmers to benefit while providing relief to India's apparel sector, which will face nearly 60% tariffs on exports to the U.S. starting later this month [1] - The planned visit of U.S. trade negotiators to New Delhi from August 25 to 29 has been canceled, delaying discussions on a proposed bilateral trade agreement and diminishing hopes for Indian goods to avoid an additional 25% tariff starting August 27 [1] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump announced additional tariffs on Indian goods as a penalty for India's purchase of Russian oil, resulting in a total import tariff rate on Indian products doubling to 50% [1] - Previously, Indian export goods faced tariffs ranging from 0% to 5%, while certain textiles had tariffs between 9% and 13% before Trump's tariff increase in April [1] - The U.S. is the largest market for Indian apparel exporters, and high tariffs are leading to order cancellations and loss of competitive advantage against countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the vibrant agricultural landscape in Xinjiang, showcasing the importance of cotton and the role of futures markets in risk management within the cotton industry [1] - Xinjiang is focusing on building a complete cotton industry chain, enhancing competitiveness in planting and deep processing, supported by financial services to ensure high-quality development [1] - Zhejiang Futures Industry is leveraging its expertise to provide continuous support to the Xinjiang cotton industry through innovative financial services [1] Group 2 - Cotton prices are experiencing significant volatility due to multiple factors, increasing operational risks for market participants and posing new challenges to the stability of the cotton industry chain [2] - There is a growing demand for diversified and personalized risk management tools among cotton enterprises in Xinjiang, leading to an exploration of futures tools [2] - A specific cotton supply chain company in Xinjiang is actively integrating futures tools into its production processes to mitigate potential operational risks [2] Group 3 - Zhejiang Futures Industry has designed several hedging solutions tailored to the specific needs of a cotton enterprise, optimizing service models based on market conditions [3] - The cotton enterprise successfully executed three transactions involving over-the-counter options, utilizing a buy-in circuit breaker cumulative put option strategy to stabilize operations amid market fluctuations [3] - The advantages of over-the-counter options include lower capital requirements and greater flexibility compared to traditional futures hedging, enhancing the ability of enterprises to manage market risks [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with a slight decrease of 0.03% reported [1] - On August 19, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 67.77 cents per pound, with a closing price of 67.64 cents per pound, reflecting a decline of 0.37% [2] - The Indian government has announced the immediate removal of an 11% import duty on cotton and the Agricultural Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC), effective from August 19 to September 30, as a response to U.S. tariffs [2] Group 2 - The Cotton Association of India (CAI) reported that the current cotton crop is growing well, with all ten major growing states receiving adequate rainfall [2] - Despite a 3% decrease in sowing area compared to the previous year, with approximately 10.7 million hectares sown this year versus 11 million hectares last year, an increase in yield of up to 10% is anticipated [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has decided to adjust the warehouse premium standards for cotton delivery warehouses starting September 1, 2026, while maintaining the original standards for those registered before that date [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The USDA August report shows a significant reduction in the US cotton planting and harvest areas due to drought, leading to a 302,000 - ton decrease in US cotton production to 2.877 million tons, while China's cotton production increases by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and global cotton production decreases by 391,000 tons month - on - month [6]. - Cotton demand is weak. Cotton prices are weaker than cotton yarn this week, with weak spot transaction prices. Spinning mills' inventory pressure has eased, and weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness has slightly increased [6]. - Cotton inventory is decreasing. The BCO reported that the cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The destocking speed is accelerating [6]. - The strategy is that there may be one more decline in the short - term for single - side trading, but in the medium - term, it is advisable to buy Zhengzhou cotton at low prices after the concentrated supply pressure is realized, as the USDA report is unexpectedly bullish and has established the lower support for US cotton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: The USDA August report shows that the US cotton planting area is reduced by 8% to 9.3 million acres, and the harvest area is reduced by 15% to 7.4 million acres. The national cotton abandonment rate rises from 14% to 21% due to drought in the Southwest. US cotton production decreases by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons, China's production increases by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and global production decreases by 391,000 tons month - on - month [6]. - **Demand**: Cotton prices are weaker than cotton yarn this week, with weak spot transaction prices. In the off - season, spinning mills' stocking willingness remains low, and their inventory pressure has eased. Weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness has slightly increased, and their inventory pressure has also decreased. Spinning profits have slightly expanded, and the loss in inland areas has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: The BCO reported that the cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The destocking speed is the fastest this year. Spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory continues to decline. Inland yarn mills' operation rate is still weak, with high finished - product inventory and decreasing raw - material inventory in the industrial chain [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 15, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 7,829, with 249 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 323,100 tons, the same as on August 8 [6]. - **Basis**: The basis quotation for sales in Xinjiang remains firm, and the spot transaction price drops with the futures price. The basis transaction price of machine - picked cotton in the Aksu area of southern Xinjiang for the 09 contract is 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of ginning mills this year is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. With some ginning mills in northern Xinjiang exiting and the poor overall demand outlook, the expected opening price for the new season is not high [6]. - **Macro**: Domestically, the economy shows a weak recovery pattern with insufficient effective demand. Overseas, the US economy is still in a downward channel, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with the first cut likely in September with a probability of over 90% [6]. - **Strategy**: There may be one more decline in the short - term for single - side trading, but in the medium - term, it is advisable to buy Zhengzhou cotton at low prices after the concentrated supply pressure is realized [6]. 02 Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the global cotton supply - demand situation shows changes in various aspects such as initial inventory, production, import, total supply, export, consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory ratio. For example, the global production in 2025/26 (August) is 25.392 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 548,000 tons [10]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Production Changes**: The production of main cotton - producing countries like China, the US, India, etc., shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. For example, China's production in 2025/26 is 6.858 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56% [11]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Demand Changes**: The consumption of main cotton - consuming countries shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. For example, global consumption in 2025/26 is 25.688 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.02% [12]. - **US Cotton**: The overall US inventory cycle is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking. The clothing inventory of US wholesalers and retailers is shifting from three - year destocking to moderate active restocking. However, due to factors such as the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks and tariff relaxation, the continuous restocking behavior is somewhat weakened [18]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new - season domestic cotton planting area is expected to expand, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. The cotton import volume is low, and spinning mills are looking forward to import quotas. The cotton commercial inventory in China is being destocked at a fast speed [22][24][40].