Group 1 - Haixi New Drug (02637) rose nearly 5%, being a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company with integrated R&D, production, and sales capabilities, and a pipeline of innovative drugs under development [1] - Paige Biopharma-B (02565) increased over 4.1%, with cornerstone investors holding a total of 9.5845 million H shares, accounting for approximately 3.43% of the company's total issued H shares [1] - Naxin Micro (02676) surged over 5% to reach a new high of 118.4 HKD, operating under a fabless model focused on chip R&D and design, outsourcing wafer manufacturing and most packaging testing [1] - Huaxin Building Materials (06655) rose 1.46%, with a major shareholder planning to increase its A-share holdings by no less than 200 million RMB and no more than 400 million RMB within six months [1] Group 2 - Dairy stocks saw an uptick, with Modern Farming (01117) rising 6.21% and Youran Dairy (09858) increasing 6.29%, following the Ministry of Commerce's announcement of temporary countervailing measures against EU dairy imports [2] - Gakos-B (01167) rose over 2.7% after announcing a collaboration with AstraZeneca on its self-developed Pan-KRAS inhibitor JAB-23E73 [2] - Junda Co. (02865) increased over 4.1% after announcing a strategic investment in Shangyi Optoelectronics, focusing on perovskite battery technology applications in space energy [2] - Qiming Medical-B (02500) rose nearly 6% after submitting all application materials for CE MDR certification of its Cardiovalve system in Europe [2] Group 3 - Brain Dynamics-B (06681) saw a slight increase of 0.32%, participating in a national major science and technology project focused on the prevention and treatment of cancer and cardiovascular diseases [3] - Hesai Technology (02525) rose over 3.3% after announcing a strategic partnership with Meituan drones for mass production of its second-generation solid-state lidar [4] Group 4 - Hut8 (HUT.US) continued to rise by 4.13%, with a total increase of 37% over three trading days, following an upgrade of its target price to 85 USD by StoneX [5] - Unusual Machines (UMAC.US) surged 9.24%, with a total increase of 45% over three trading days, after receiving a 3.75 million USD order from Performance Drone Works [5] - Hycroft Mining (HYMC.US) opened with a 10.69% increase, having risen 460% since September, due to successful exploration drilling confirming high-grade silver continuity [6] - Sony (SONY.US) rose 2.1% after acquiring a 41% stake in Peanuts Holdings for 630 million CAD, which holds the rights to the Peanuts comic [7] - Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) increased by 7.3% after the FDA approved its first oral GLP-1 weight loss drug, Wegovy, set to launch in January at a starting price of 149 USD per month [7] - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM.US) rose 5.78% as the board evaluates multiple acquisition proposals from strategic investors [7]

更替为航运业市场惯例的一部分，据此，特殊目的公司通常会在船舶交付前夕设立，并将与该等公司相 关的交易文件进行更替，本案例中更替对象为租船人各全资附属公司。 因此，公司原先以拥有人为受益人为担保租船人于交易文件项下义务的妥善按时履约而提供的租船担 保，此后应转为担保租船人各全资附属公司于交易文件项下义务的妥善按时履约。 格隆汇12月23日丨洲际船务(02409.HK)宣布，自2025年12月23日起，公司将就交易文件与各拥有人、租 船人、中国船舶租赁及租船人四间全资附属公司(即(i)Golden CanolaLimited；(ii)Golden Olive Limited； (iii)Golden Flax Limited；及(iv)Golden PalmLimited)分别订立四份更替协议，据此，交易文件项下租船 人之所有权利及义务将由租船人各全资附属公司代替租船人承担。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Intercontinental Shipping (02409), announced that starting from December 23, 2025, it will enter into four replacement agreements with its wholly-owned subsidiaries, transferring the rights and obligations of the charterers to these subsidiaries [1] Group 1 - The replacement agreements will ensure that the obligations under the transaction documents will be assumed by the subsidiaries of the charterers, specifically Golden Canola Limited, Golden Olive Limited, Golden Flax Limited, and Golden Palm Limited [1] - The company previously provided guarantees for the charterers' performance under the transaction documents, which will now shift to the subsidiaries, maintaining the company's risk exposure at a similar level [1] - The board believes that the execution of these replacement agreements will not have an adverse impact on the group and that the terms are fair and reasonable, aligning with the overall interests of the company and its shareholders [1] Group 2 - The replacement is part of a common practice in the shipping industry, where special purpose companies are typically established before the delivery of vessels, and related transaction documents are replaced accordingly [1] - The replacement does not alter any other terms of the transaction documents, indicating stability in the contractual obligations [1]

智通财经APP讯，洲际船务(02409)发布公告，自2025年12月23日起，本公司将就交易文件与各拥有人、 租船人、中国船舶租赁及租船人四间全资附属公司(即Golden Canola Limited;Golden Olive Limited;Golden Flax Limited;及Golden Palm Limited)分别订立四份更替协议，交易文件项下租船人的所 有权利及义务将由租船人各全资附属公司代替租船人承担(更替)。 因此，本公司原先以拥有人为受益人为担保租船人于交易文件项下义务的妥善按时履约而提供的租船担 保，此后应转为担保租船人各全资附属公司于交易文件项下义务的妥善按时履约。 更替为航运业市场惯例的一部分，特殊目的公司通常会在船舶交付前夕设立，并将与该等公司相关的交 易文件进行更替，本案例中更替对象为租船人各全资附属公司。 更替后担保方为租船人的全资附属公司，因此本公司作为担保人的风险敞口并无重大变动，且更替亦未 对交易文件的其他条款造成变动。因此，董事会认为：订立四份更替协议对本集团并无不利影响;及四 份更替协议的条款乃按一般商业条款订立，属公平合理，并符合本公司及其股东的整体利益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing crisis in the Red Sea has led major shipping companies to face multiple pressures, including extended travel times, rising fuel and time costs, and persistently weak freight rates, which are dragging down profitability [2] Group 1: Recovery of Shipping Routes - The Suez Canal-Red Sea route is one of the busiest waterways globally, accounting for approximately 10% of global maritime trade volume before the crisis [3] - Following the escalation of the situation in October 2023, major shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd opted to bypass the Red Sea and Suez Canal, choosing the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope [3] - Recent signs of easing tensions in the region have sparked discussions about the potential resumption of Red Sea routes, with Maersk's container ship completing its first passage through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in nearly two years [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Moves by Shipping Companies - Maersk's recent actions are seen as a significant step, although the company has not committed to fully restoring its east-west route network through the Suez Canal [4] - Analysts believe that Maersk's move may prompt other shipping companies to follow suit in the new year, signaling a potential trend towards normalization in the industry [5] - French shipping company CMA CGM announced plans to resume its India-Middle East-East Coast US route via the Suez Canal starting January 15, 2026, which will shorten travel time by approximately 14 days [5] Group 3: Cost Pressure Relief - The resumption of Red Sea routes is viewed as a strategic trial to alleviate cost pressures by shortening travel times and restoring turnover efficiency [6] - Industry estimates indicate that bypassing the Cape of Good Hope has added an extra 200,000 to 300,000 USD in fuel costs per voyage, with spot freight rates dropping below some shipping companies' base rate expectations [6] - Hapag-Lloyd reported a 50% year-on-year decline in net profit due to increased unit costs and falling freight rates, highlighting the financial strain on shipping companies [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Challenges - Despite the resumption of routes, the market is not expected to rebound immediately, as geopolitical risks remain, and many shipping companies are still cautious [7] - The potential return of shipping capacity could lead to a new price competition, with around 6% to 7% of global capacity currently bypassing the Suez Canal [7] - Analysts warn that if container shipping companies fully resume Red Sea routes by 2026, it could lead to an oversupply of 14% to 15% in the container fleet, with projections of up to 20% by 2027 [8] Group 5: Supply Chain Adjustments - The shift to bypassing the Red Sea has led many shippers to reconfigure their global supply chains, adjusting delivery cycles and inventory management [8][9] - Even with the resumption of routes, the return of customer markets may lag behind shipping companies' actions, complicating market share rebalancing [9] - Concerns exist that a hasty full resumption of the Red Sea-Suez Canal route could lead to further disruptions in production schedules and inventory strategies for various businesses [9]

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 研究员：贾瑞林 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 收盘价 涨跌 | | | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,631.0 | 0.9 | 0.06% | 100.0 | -46.24% | 1,956.0 | -1.36% | | EC2602 | 1,871.8 | 152.0 | 8.84% | 52,704.0 | 66.66% | 36,510.0 | 15.88% | | EC2604 | 1,166.8 | 38.0 | 3.37% | 11,708.0 | 177.11% | 20,471.0 | 8.67% | | EC26 ...

"凯拓"轮为全球第一艘甲醇双燃料动力VLCC，并配置脱硫洗涤塔和轴带发电机，是公司践行"绿色航 运"理念的开拓性试验和标志性举措，也是全球航运业特别是油轮运输业实现"碳中和"长远目标的重要 实践。此艘VLCC交付后，公司油轮船队节能降碳指标将进一步提升，预计市场竞争力、服务客户的能 力均将进一步巩固，公司持续盈利进一步增强。 格隆汇12月22日丨招商轮船(601872.SH)公布，2025年12月22日，公司在大连船舶重工集团有限公司 （称"大连造船"）订造的全球首艘甲醇双燃料动力VLCC油轮"凯拓"轮在大连交付。 截至本公告发布之日，公司拥有油轮在手订单15艘，其中自有VLCC订单5艘、长期租入VLCC订单3 艘，自有Aframax订单7艘，将于2026年至2028年陆续交付。 ...

"凯拓"轮为全球第一艘甲醇双燃料动力VLCC，并配置脱硫洗涤塔和轴带发电机，是公司践行"绿色航 运"理念的开拓性试验和标志性举措，也是全球航运业特别是油轮运输业实现"碳中和"长远目标的重要 实践。此艘VLCC交付后，公司油轮船队节能降碳指标将进一步提升，预计市场竞争力、服务客户的能 力均将进一步巩固，公司持续盈利进一步增强。 格隆汇12月22日丨招商轮船(601872.SH)公布，2025年12月22日，公司在大连船舶重工集团有限公司 （称"大连造船"）订造的全球首艘甲醇双燃料动力VLCC油轮"凯拓"轮在大连交付。 截至本公告发布之日，公司拥有油轮在手订单15艘，其中自有VLCC订单5艘、长期租入VLCC订单3 艘，自有Aframax订单7艘，将于2026年至2028年陆续交付。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，太平洋航运(02343)近期的沽压，相较其基本面而言似乎反应 过度;重申"增持"评级，目标价由3.2港元下调至2.7港元，已反映TCE(按期租合约对等基准收入)持平及 船队持续增长的前景。 该行认为，股价近期走弱基于多个因素，包括公司已完成回购计划、市场预期行业供应持续超越需求导 致明年前景疲弱、Caravel减慢收集股份步伐而缺乏可见的短期催化剂，以及年底获利回吐。不过，这 些因素并未有反映出公司的竞争地位或资产负债表出现恶化。 该行表示，虽然轻便型散货船需求增长正在放缓，但预计明年仍能保持2%同比正增长，将支持运力使 用率。另外，船队老化问题日益构成限制，目前有14%的轻便型船(Handysize)及12%的超灵便型船 (Supramax)船龄超过20年。一旦市场进一步转弱，供应端的反应将更具不对称性。该行认为，调整估值 及目标价后，风险回报比率已更为有利。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to have upward momentum at the beginning of the week, but face integer - level pressure. The conversion of contract months may lead to an expansion of basis. The bond market for treasury futures is cautiously optimistic in the short - term, with short - term trading opportunities in the TL contract [21][23]. - Agricultural products have different trends. Protein meal prices are under pressure, sugar is expected to bottom - oscillate, and the cotton - cotton yarn market is strong due to factors such as good sales of new cotton [27][32][54]. - Black metals show different characteristics. Steel prices are range - bound, coking coal and coke may rebound from the bottom, and iron ore prices are volatile [58][61][64]. - Non - ferrous metals also vary. Precious metals like gold and silver are likely to continue their strong trend, while base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc have different price trends due to various factors [70][84][91]. - Energy and chemical products have diverse situations. Crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating, asphalt has support, and fuel oil is weakly - oscillating [116][120][124]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: The market was first down then up last week. The Shanghai Composite Index faces the 3900 - point decision. There may be a style switch, and the acquisition plan of Shenhua may drive large enterprises. Futures contracts' basis may expand after the contract - month change, and short - selling forces have increased [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for unilateral trading; wait for the basis to expand for IM\IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; use a double - buying strategy for options [21]. Treasury Futures - **Investment Logic**: The bond market is less sensitive to weak economic data. The capital supply is loose, increasing the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts. The short - and medium - term bonds are relatively stable, while the long - term bonds' recovery is uncertain [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, buy low and sell high for the TL contract [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Investment Logic**: The global soybean supply is abundant. Domestic soybean meal has an uncertain supply, and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [28]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar supply pressure is easing, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing - production cycle. Domestically, new sugar production is increasing, but there is cost support [31][32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, watch for the support at previous lows; for arbitrage, go long on the January contract and short on the May contract; for options, wait and see [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Investment Logic**: Domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, but the overall supply is sufficient. There is a lack of positive drivers for oils, but the downward space is limited [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on palm oil after it stops falling and rebounds, and wait and see for soybean oil and rapeseed oil; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [35]. 3.3 Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The steel price is range - bound. The replenishment expectation has not been fulfilled, and the cost has support, but the upward space is limited [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, maintain the oscillating trend; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position in the coil - rebar spread; for options, wait and see [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The coking coal auction situation has improved, but the price increase is not widespread. The coking coal supply may improve in the future, but the price fluctuation is large [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see or go long lightly at low prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [62]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The iron ore supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price increase space is limited [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is oscillating; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [65]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: The obstacles to interest - rate cuts have decreased, and gold and silver are likely to continue their strong trend [70]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold long positions in gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options [72]. Base Metals - **Investment Logic**: Different base metals have different price trends due to factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policies [79][85][91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Each metal has different trading strategies, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading, mainly depending on its specific situation [79][85][91]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - **Investment Logic**: Geopolitical factors cause frequent disturbances, and the oil price is bottom - oscillating. The supply - demand surplus pressure is significant [116]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is weakly oscillating; for arbitrage, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil - price spread is weak; for options, wait and see [117]. Asphalt - **Investment Logic**: The raw - material risk is difficult to prove false, and the asphalt price has support. The supply - demand fundamentals may weaken [120]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is oscillating; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [120]. Fuel Oil - **Investment Logic**: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weakly oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [124]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go short; for arbitrage, the low - sulfur and high - sulfur crack spreads are weak; for options, wait and see [124].