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南华金属日报:黄金、白银:低位震荡-20251024
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 07:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metals price, in the short - term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously. The resistance for London gold is 4150, and the support is 4000; for silver, the resistance is 50 - 50.5, and the support is 47.5 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals prices continued to fluctuate and adjust. The US dollar index fluctuated, the 10Y US Treasury yield rebounded, European and American stock indices rose slightly, Bitcoin rebounded, and crude oil had a large increase. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4143.2 per ounce, up 1.91%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $48.65 per ounce, up 2.03%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 942.28 yuan per gram, down 0.77%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11467 yuan per kilogram, up 1.24% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations continued to cool slightly. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 1.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 98.3%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 6.5%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 93.4%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 0.2%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 3.2%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 48.2%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 48.6%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1052.37 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 128.41 tons to 15469.2 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 28.3 tons to 663.4 tons, and the SGX silver inventory decreased by 57.4 tons to 1050.7 tons as of the week ending October 17 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, pay attention to the US September CPI data, which was postponed due to the US government shutdown and is scheduled to be released tonight. In terms of events, this week is the quiet period before the Fed's October 31 FOMC meeting [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Price Data**: The SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 942.28 yuan per gram, down 1.08%; SGX gold TD was at 940.14 yuan per gram, down 0.92%; CME gold main contract was at $4143.2 per ounce, up 0.65%. The SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 11467 yuan per kilogram, up 0.55%; SGX silver TD was at 11463 yuan per kilogram, up 0.72%; CME silver main contract was at $48.65 per ounce, up 0.98%. The SHFE - TD gold spread was 2.14 yuan per gram, down 42.47%; the SHFE - TD silver spread was 4 yuan per kilogram, down 50% [5]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 87015 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1211.7586 tons, down 0.02%; SHFE gold positions were 189131 lots, down 1.9%. SHFE silver inventory was 663.366 tons, down 4.09%; CME silver inventory was 15488.954 tons, down 0.61%; SGX silver inventory was 1050.675 tons, down 5.18%. SHFE silver positions were 377229 lots, down 2.33%; SLV silver positions were 15469.202584 tons, down 0.82% [8]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was at 98.9332, up 0.05%; the US dollar against the RMB was at 7.125, down 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 46734.61 points, up 0.31%. WTI crude oil spot was at $61.79 per barrel, up 5.62%. LmeS copper 03 was at $10817 per ton, up 1.49%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was at 4.01%, up 1.01%; the 10Y US real interest rate was at 1.71%, up 1.79%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was at 0.53%, up 1.92% [11].
上市券商豪派近80亿元“年中红包”;华泰证券:选举赵昌涛为华泰期货董事长 | 券商基金早参
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-24 01:27
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive developments in the securities and private equity sectors, with significant dividend distributions and growth in private fund sizes indicating a robust market environment [1][3][4] Group 2 - 17 listed securities firms have announced a total dividend distribution of 7.949 billion yuan, reflecting strong profitability and shareholder return awareness in the industry [1] - The appointment of Zhao Changtao as chairman of Huatai Futures may enhance the strategic layout of its futures business, with market attention on his ability to drive innovation and market share growth [2] - The number of private equity firms exceeding 10 billion yuan in assets has reached 101, with quantitative firms leading the way, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics within the private equity industry [3] - The Social Security Fund has disclosed holdings exceeding 15.5 billion yuan, focusing on leading companies while increasing investments in technology sectors, suggesting a strategic asset allocation approach [4]
国债期货日报-20251023
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 11:47
Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Report Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Xu Chenxi (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0001908) - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. The current capital market is waiting for the policy statements of the Fourth Plenary Session on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the results of China-US trade negotiations. In the next two days, focus on the news from the Fourth Plenary Session. If the risk sentiment recovers, the bond market may reach further lows. The operation should still be based on a bullish mindset without chasing high prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, treasury bond futures opened lower, turned positive near noon, and weakened in the afternoon, with all varieties closing down. The short - end yields of spot bonds slightly decreased, while the long - end yields slightly increased. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. There was a 212.5 billion yuan open - market reverse repurchase and a 120 billion yuan treasury cash fixed - deposit tender, resulting in a net injection of 96.5 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Market News - Trump said that he expects China and the US to reach a trade agreement at the APEC summit, but the leaders of the two countries may not meet. If the two sides fail to reach an agreement in the end, a 155% tariff will be imposed. - The Ministry of Commerce announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia from October 24 to 27 to hold economic and trade consultations with the US [2] 3.3 Market Analysis - The market continued to fluctuate with the news. The A - share market weakened in the morning, recovered in the afternoon after the news of China - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia, and continued to strengthen at the close, while the bond market declined accordingly [3] 3.4 Market Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 23 | 2025 - 10 - 22 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.342 | 102.352 | - 0.01 | | TF2512 | 105.665 | 105.715 | - 0.05 | | T2512 | 108.07 | 108.16 | - 0.09 | | TL2512 | 115.3 | 115.6 | - 0.3 | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 76,588 | 76,223 | + 365 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 152,409 | 156,292 | - 3,883 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 262,198 | 269,637 | - 7,439 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 175,682 | 178,780 | - 3,098 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0297 | - 0.0316 | + 0.0019 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0405 | - 0.0118 | - 0.0287 | | T Basis (CTD) | - 0.0074 | 0.1457 | - 0.1531 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.319 | 0.3552 | - 0.0362 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 32,327 | 24,145 | + 8,182 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 59,535 | 40,005 | + 19,530 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 76,898 | 66,248 | + 10,650 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 136,162 | 113,354 | + 22,808 | [4]
南华期货:第三季度净利润1.2亿元,同比下降6.21%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-23 10:21
南华期货公告,第三季度营收为3.47亿元,同比下降0.98%;净利润为1.2亿元,同比下降6.21%。前三 季度营收为9.41亿元,同比下降8.27%;净利润为3.51亿元,同比下降1.92%。 ...
产业风险管理日报:南华豆-20251023
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 01:28
Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Core Viewpoints - After a strong rebound, the market shows a series of changes such as rising grain - selling profits, emerging profits on the futures market, and increasing acquisition costs. The short - term upward trend has slowed down. The spot market is mainly stable, and the futures market has a slight correction. The 01 contract closed lower yesterday, bottomed out and rebounded during the session, closing at 4057 yuan, and the night session was consolidated strongly, closing at 4063 yuan [4]. - This year, the restraint and price - holding of the grain - selling end, disasters in the southern producing areas, and rigid debt - repayment needs have changed the previous price trend of unilateral decline during the new harvest season. Currently, the game between buyers and sellers is relatively balanced, but the pressure of new grain listing still needs to be released. The price bottom - grinding time may be extended under the condition of dispersed selling pressure. In addition, due to the good price situation, the state - reserve acquisition has not yet exerted its strength, which also provides a bottom - support expectation for the later market. Overall, the fundamental pressure of the domestic soybean market has been alleviated, and the price performance is better than the same period in previous years. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the release of the back - end selling pressure [4]. Price Forecast and Risk Strategies Price Forecast - The price range forecast for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3900 - 4100 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.93% and a historical percentile of 18.6% [3]. Risk Strategies Inventory Management - For planting entities with high demand for selling new - harvested soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure (long spot exposure), it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures (A2601) with a hedging ratio of 30% when the price is above 4100 [3]. - When soybeans are concentrated on the market and the seller's bargaining power weakens (long spot exposure), it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price with a hedging ratio of 30% when the option price is between 30 - 50 (holding) [3]. Procurement Management - For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs (short spot exposure), it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long A2603 and A2605 contracts and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [3]. Market Data Spot Price and Basis | Location | Spot Price on 2025 - 10 - 22 (yuan) | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | | Harbin (Domestic Grade 3) | 3890 | - 167 | | Nenjiang (Domestic Grade 3) | 3840 | - 221 | | Jiamusi (Domestic Grade 3) | 3920 | - 141 | | Changchun (Domestic Grade 3) | 3970 | - 91 | [4] Futures Closing Price | Contract | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 21 (yuan) | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 22 (yuan) | Daily Change (yuan) | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No. 1 11 | 4038 | 4035 | - 3 | - 0.07% | | Soybean No. 1 01 | 4061 | 4057 | - 4 | - 0.10% | | Soybean No. 1 03 | 4064 | 4064 | 0 | 0.00% | | Soybean No. 1 05 | 4100 | 4101 | 1 | 0.02% | | Soybean No. 1 07 | 4098 | 4096 | - 2 | - 0.05% | | Soybean No. 1 09 | 4100 | 4096 | - 4 | - 0.10% | [7] Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors Core Contradictions - After a strong rebound, the short - term upward trend has slowed down. The new grain listing pressure needs to be released, and it remains to be seen whether the downstream acquisition can provide support. The price bottom - grinding time may be extended, but the state - reserve acquisition provides a bottom - support expectation [4]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The reduction in production in the southern region has led to changes in the acquisition behavior of enterprises, and the grain sources in the northeastern producing areas are valued, which supports the price. - The debt - repayment operation under two - way auctions supports short - term demand, and the rigid acquisition in the sales areas increases as the weather gets colder [6]. Bearish Factors - During the new grain listing period, the spot pressure still needs to be digested, but the selling pressure is relatively dispersed. - Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the prices of oil and meal are low, which suppresses the domestic soybean crushing demand, and the sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans are in trouble [6]
南华期货玉米、淀粉产业日报-20251023
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 01:02
南华期货玉米&淀粉产业日报 2025年10月23日 戴鸿绪(投资咨询证号:Z0021819) 研究助理:康全贵(从业资格证号:F03148699) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 随着华北天气好转,购销活动有效恢复,对行情扰动逐步消散,市场焦点回到新季供应压力表现。期现市场 涨势暂缓,其中现货市场整体平稳,收购端范围扩大,储备库挺价明显,华北经历天气影响后,优质玉米受 到青睐,报价稳中有涨,东北产区卖压继续释放,售粮意愿平稳,低价售粮意愿不足,市场收购情绪稳定, 短期市场处于弱平衡,后期随着卖压累计,仍将考验中下游承接力度,价格或仍有回踩动作。 期货端随着反弹动能释放,价格回落整理运行,周三,玉米各合约普遍收低,主力01合约收于2133元,夜盘 收低于2126元,关注现货卖压释放下期货二次探底风险,01-05为代表的近远价差维持高位,昨日玉米注册仓 单增加12644手至61968手; 淀粉走货好转,库存下降,但水平仍处于高位,关注去库持续性; 周三,CBOT玉米期货收涨0.95%,因预计单产下降支撑期价。 【利多因素】 【利空因素】 | 玉米&淀粉现货价格及主连基差 | | - ...
南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20251022
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 02:49
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) [1] - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Prediction and Risk Strategy Price Prediction - The predicted price range for the Soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3900 - 4100 yuan. The current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 10.06%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.8% [2] Risk Strategy - **Inventory Management - 1**: For planting subjects with a large demand for selling new soybeans after autumn harvest but facing large short - term selling pressure (long spot exposure), the strategy is to short - sell Soybean No. 1 futures (contract A2601) to lock in planting profits when the futures price rebounds. The hedging ratio is 30%, and the recommended entry range is above 4100 yuan [2] - **Inventory Management - 2**: When soybeans are concentratedly listed and the seller's bargaining power weakens (long spot exposure), the strategy is to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price. The hedging ratio is 30%, and the recommended holding range is 30 - 50 [2] - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and aiming to control procurement costs (short spot exposure), the main strategy is to wait for spot procurement in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long contracts A2603 and A2605, and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Market Analysis Core Contradiction - The harvest of domestic soybeans is in the final stage. The reduction in production in southern regions has stimulated the acquisition enthusiasm of some subjects, especially for grain sources in the Northeast. Coupled with the relatively restrained selling sentiment of grass - roots subjects this year, the difficulty for enterprises to acquire soybeans has increased in the short term, leading to more price - increasing acquisitions and rising market bullish sentiment [3] - On the futures side, since the opening in October, the Soybean No. 1 futures have rebounded against the spot pressure, contrary to the usual downward - prone trend in October. The main 01 contract has rebounded from around 3900 yuan to nearly 4100 yuan. The basis in the production area has weakened significantly. However, as the futures price enters the August platform range and the hedging space increases, the short - term correction pressure on the futures price has increased [3] - At the policy level, as the price rebounds, the situation of grass - roots grain selling has improved, reducing the urgency of policy - supported storage. The selling sentiment of grass - roots subjects is scattered, and the short - term selling pressure mainly relies on market forces to resolve. The price of domestic soybeans has entered a bottom - grinding stage. The acquisition intensity of oil mills should be monitored as it will have a significant impact on the grain purchase and sales progress [3] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The acquisition demand driven by the return - grain operation in the two - way auction provides short - term support to the market [3] - Soybeans have become one of the focuses of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. With China's continuous zero - import of US soybeans, it has provided emotional support to domestic soybeans [5] - The disasters in southern production areas have increased enterprises' enthusiasm for acquiring soybeans from the Northeast, providing short - term support for price rebounds [5] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - During the new - grain listing period, the spot pressure needs to be digested [5] - The low transaction rate of the state - reserve soybean auction (4345 tons out of 40422 tons at a reserve price of 3900 yuan) indicates that the enthusiasm for spot grain grabbing is relatively rational [5] Group 4: Price and Basis Data Spot Price and Basis - On October 21, 2025, the basis data for different regions are as follows: in Harbin (Grade 3 domestic soybeans), the price is 3890 yuan with a basis of - 171; in Nenjiang, 3840 yuan with a basis of - 246; in Jiamusi, 3920 yuan with a basis of - 166; in Changchun, 3970 yuan with a basis of - 116 [6] Futures Price - On October 21, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing prices of different Soybean No. 1 contracts decreased. For example, the 11 - contract decreased by 27 yuan to 4038 yuan (- 0.66%); the 01 - contract decreased by 25 yuan to 4061 yuan (- 0.61%); the 03 - contract decreased by 18 yuan to 4064 yuan (- 0.44%); the 05 - contract decreased by 12 yuan to 4100 yuan (- 0.29%); the 07 - contract decreased by 14 yuan to 4098 yuan (- 0.34%); the 09 - contract decreased by 17 yuan to 4100 yuan (- 0.41%) [6]
永安期货纸浆早报-20251022
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:13
Report Summary 1. Report Information - The report is the Pulp Morning Report, released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on October 22, 2025 [2] 2. SP Main Contract Closing Price - On October 21, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5170.00. The closing prices and related data from October 15 - 21, 2025, are as follows: - Closing prices: 4856.00 (Oct 15 - 16), 5122.00 (Oct 17), 5156.00 (Oct 20), 5170.00 (Oct 21) - Dollar - converted prices: 594.54 (Oct 15), 594.45 (Oct 16), 627.35 (Oct 17), 631.87 (Oct 20 - 21) - Daily price changes: 0.20636% (Oct 15), 0.00000% (Oct 16), 5.47776% (Oct 17), 0.66380% (Oct 20), 0.27153% (Oct 21) - Shandong Yinxing basis: 734 (Oct 15), 744 (Oct 16), 478 (Oct 17), 444 (Oct 20), 430 (Oct 21) - Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis: 729 (Oct 15 - 16), 438 (Oct 17), 404 (Oct 20), 390 (Oct 21) [3] 3. Import Price and Profit - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import prices and profits of different pulp brands are as follows: - Canadian Golden Lion (CFR): port dollar price 780, Shandong RMB price 6200, import profit - 145.57 - Canadian Lion (CFR): port dollar price 730, Shandong RMB price 5350, import profit - 593.29 - Chilean Yinxing (CFR letter of credit 90 days): port dollar price 700, Shandong RMB price 5600, import profit - 101.92 [4] 4. Pulp and Paper Price and Margin - Pulp prices (Oct 15 - 21, 2025): - National average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively - Shandong average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4] - Paper prices and margins: - Cultural paper (Oct 16 - 21, 2025): double - offset index and double - copper index remained at 5725 and 5670 respectively; double - offset profit margin remained at - 0.0774%, double - copper profit margin remained at 12.9677% - Packaging paper (Oct 16 - 21, 2025): white - card index remained at 4350, white - card profit margin remained at - 10.3133% - Tissue paper (Oct 16 - 21, 2025): tissue index increased from 839 to 841, tissue profit margin changed from 6.9359% (Oct 16) to 7.0696% (Oct 21) [4] 5. Pulp Price Spreads - From October 15 - 21, 2025, the price spreads between different types of pulp were as follows: - Softwood - hardwood spread: 1330 (Oct 15), 1340 (Oct 16 - 17), 1350 (Oct 20 - 21) - Softwood - natural spread: 190 (Oct 15), 200 (Oct 16 - 21) - Softwood - chemimechanical spread: 1790 (Oct 15), 1800 (Oct 16 - 21) - Softwood - waste paper spread: 4014 (Oct 15), 4024 (Oct 16 - 21) [4]
期市走好吸引投资者关注,两类客户成重要增长点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-21 23:27
今年以来,中国期货市场持续发展,资金总量近日首破2万亿元大关,迎来里程碑时刻。伴随大宗商品 和金融市场波动加大,不少投资者对参与期货市场表现出浓厚兴趣,期货新开户数量明显增加。记者采 访发现,产业客户和境外客户成为当前市场重要增长点,各家期货公司苦练内功,提升自身服务能力。 与此同时,期货行业整体业绩也有所回暖。 ...
南华原木产业风险管理日报:趋势向上,月差继续走弱-20251021
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 09:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the log market is upward, but the monthly spread continues to weaken. The 01 contract is trading based on expectations related to special port charges for log vessels. If the charges are implemented, it may lead to potential price increases or supply reductions. The monthly spread between 11 - 01 contracts has reached a new low and may continue to weaken. [1][6][8] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830 yuan/m³, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4%. [2] Hedging Strategies - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2511) at 820 - 830 yuan/m³ with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2511) at 780 - 800 yuan/m³ with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. [2] Market Conditions - **Futures**: lg2511 closed at 803 (+1), and lg2601 closed at 838 (+3.5) with a position of 17,000 lots. - **Spot**: The spot price remained unchanged. - **Valuation**: The warehouse receipt cost is about 831 yuan/m³ in the Yangtze River Delta and 836 yuan/m³ in Shandong. - **Inventory**: As of October 10th, the national inventory was 2.99 million m³ (+130,000). [5][6] Core Contradiction - The 01 contract is trading on expectations based on special port charges for log vessels. If implemented, it may lead to higher CFR quotes or supply reductions. However, the policy's stability is uncertain, and the delivery logic may lead to a discounted delivery state. [6] Monthly Spread Analysis - The monthly spread between 11 - 01 contracts closed at - 34.5, a new low. It may continue to weaken as it may not be considered absolutely safe. [8] Strategies - Implement a covered call strategy for the 01 contract. Establish additional short positions of 1/3 of lg2601c850 and 2/3 of lg2601C875 corresponding to the total long positions. Also, set dynamic stop - profit orders for long positions in the 01 contract. [9] Data Overview - **Supply**: Radiation pine imports in August 2025 were 1.3 million m³ (- 100,000 m³ compared to the previous period, - 3.7% year - on - year). - **Inventory**: As of October 17th, the national port inventory was 2.92 million m³ (- 70,000 m³ compared to the previous period, + 22.2% year - on - year), with 1.846 million m³ in Shandong ports (- 46,000 m³ compared to the previous period, + 78.7% year - on - year) and 887,310 m³ in Jiangsu ports (+ 6,410 m³ compared to the previous period, - 9.5% year - on - year). The daily average outbound volume from log ports was 63,200 m³ (+ 5,900 m³ compared to the previous period, - 9.5% year - on - year). - **Demand**: The daily average outbound volume in Shandong was 34,200 m³ (- 200 m³ compared to the previous period, - 5.5% year - on - year), and in Jiangsu was 24,200 m³ (+ 6,300 m³ compared to the previous period, - 8.3% year - on - year). - **Profit**: The import profit of radiation pine on October 24th was - 64 yuan/m³, and that of spruce was - 118 yuan/m³ (- 3 yuan/m³ compared to the previous period). [11] Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Seasonal factors in New Zealand increase the proportion of integrated timber and decrease the proportion of sawn timber. Potential increases in import costs due to shipping surcharges. Relatively low inventory levels. - **Negative factors**: The emergence of domestic deliverable log products. Reduced willingness of buyers to accept deliverable products from non - mainstream delivery warehouses. [12]