1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From August 11th to 14th, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1019 points, up 1.19% week-on-week (with narrowing growth) and 12.72% year-on-year (with expanding growth). The increase in the number of crude oil vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regions continued to boost the BDTI index, but the decline in demand for VLCC tankers and the decrease in shipping distances limited the index's growth [2]. - As of August 8th, the shipping volume showed a pattern of "two increases and two decreases." The shipping volumes of the US and Russia increased by 11.69% and 18.95% respectively, while those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE decreased by 5.14% and 20.83% respectively [2]. - Attention should be paid to important events such as OPEC+ crude oil production increase, US tariff policies, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of August 14, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1019 points, up 1.19% week-on-week and 12.72% year-on-year. The growth rate of the freight rate narrowed seasonally [2]. Tanker Shipping Distance - In the 30th week of 2025 (as of August 1st), the shipping distances of VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax tankers all decreased week-on-week. The Suezmax tankers had the largest week-on-week decrease, but the rate of decrease slowed compared to the previous week. Compared with the same period last year, the VLCC tankers had the largest decrease in shipping distance [4]. - From August 9th to 13th, the total tanker traffic in the Red Sea increased significantly, with an average of 813 tankers passing through per day, an increase of 20 from the previous week. The number of crude oil tankers increased by 41, while the number of product tankers decreased by 18. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCCs remained unchanged, the number of Suezmax tankers increased by 21, and the number of Aframax tankers increased by 23 [6]. - In the Gulf of Aden, the tanker traffic increased slightly, reaching 154 tankers, an increase of 6 from the previous week. The number of crude oil tankers increased by 7, while the number of product tankers decreased by 2. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCCs increased by 2, the number of Suezmax tankers increased by 3, and the number of Aframax tankers decreased by 2 [6]. Tanker Capacity - As of August 8, 2025, the number of scrapped tankers was 9425, an increase of 2 week-on-week and 83 year-on-year; the number of effective vessels was 18310, an increase of 3 week-on-week and 440 year-on-year; the number of vessel deliveries was 219, an increase of 23 week-on-week and 99 year-on-year; the number of vessel orders was 1343, a decrease of 13 week-on-week and an increase of 115 year-on-year; the number of vessels under construction was 215, an increase of 3 week-on-week and 77 year-on-year [8]. - As of August 9th, the port tanker capacity of all ship types increased. Specifically, the number of VLCCs docked was 2334, an increase of 141 week-on-week; the number of Aframax tankers docked was 2736, an increase of 80 week-on-week; the number of Suezmax tankers docked was 2207, an increase of 17 week-on-week [8]. Crude Oil Shipping Data Tracking - As of August 8, 2025, the crude oil shipping volumes of the US and Russia increased week-on-week, while those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE decreased. Specifically, the US crude oil weekly shipping volume continued to rise by 11.69%; the Russian crude oil weekly shipping volume rose by 18.95%; the Saudi crude oil weekly shipping volume fell by 5.14%; the UAE crude oil weekly shipping volume continued to fall by 20.83% [10]. - In terms of shipping vessel types for US crude oil, the shipping volume continued to rise. The demand for Suezmax tankers increased significantly by 45.16% week-on-week, while the demand for VLCC and Aframax tankers decreased by 8.23% and 12.07% respectively [10]. - The Russian crude oil shipping volume increased week-on-week. The demand for Aframax tankers increased significantly by 55.99% week-on-week, while the demand for Suezmax tankers decreased by 0.42% [10]. - The Saudi crude oil shipping volume decreased week-on-week. The demand for Aframax tankers decreased the most, with the demand for VLCC and Suezmax tankers decreasing by 2.74% and 5.7% respectively [10]. - The UAE crude oil shipping volume continued to decrease. The demand for VLCC and Suezmax tankers decreased, with the demand for VLCC tankers decreasing by 13.48% and the demand for Suezmax tankers decreasing significantly by 46.87%. The demand for Aframax tankers increased by 17.13% [10]. - The total crude oil shipping volume of other countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline in the shipping volumes of Kuwait, Iran, and Algeria [27]. Crude Oil Arrivals - During the week, the crude oil arrivals in China, India, and the Netherlands all decreased week-on-week. The arrivals in China and the Netherlands returned to the levels of the same period last year, while the arrivals in India were lower than last year [28].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Tin prices declined slightly on Thursday, fluctuating with the non - ferrous metals sector. Recently, the macro - environment has limited impact on tin prices. The repeated delay of the full resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. According to Alphamin's financial report, the production cut at the Bisie tin mine has exceeded expectations, pushing up short - term tin prices. There has been no significant change in demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,420 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - In the tin futures market, the latest prices of沪锡主力,沪锡连一 are 267,420 yuan/ton,沪锡连三 is 267,820 yuan/ton,伦锡3M is 33,435 dollars/ton (down 0.79% daily), and the沪伦比 is 8.02 (up 0.12% daily) [6]. 3.2 Risk Management Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector remaining in the expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition from an expansion cycle to a contraction cycle [5]. 3.4 Spot and Inventory Data - **Spot Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots is 269,500 yuan/ton (up 0.86% weekly), 1 tin premium is 300 yuan/ton (down 25% weekly), 40% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton (up 0.9% weekly), 60% tin concentrate is 261,500 yuan/ton (up 0.89% weekly), etc. [12]. - **Inventory Data**: The total warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 7,422 tons (down 0.11% daily), in Guangdong are 4,881 tons (down 0.49% daily), in Shanghai are 1,670 tons (up 0.97% daily), and the total LME tin inventory is 1,780 tons (up 0.85% daily) [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is expected to remain in surplus in the second half of the year, with prices likely to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, supported by the full cost of high - cost regions (3000 - 3150). The trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market will maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with a price range of 20300 - 21000. There is upward momentum in the medium term as the peak season approaches and there are expectations of a Fed rate cut [4]. - The cast aluminum alloy market has strong cost support from scrap aluminum, but demand is weakening. The futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference widens [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 3240 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 3000 - 3500 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 40.74%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 90.74% [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20715 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 20000 - 21000 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.86%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.99% [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 20140 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19500 - 20300 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.83%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.50% [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Alumina** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 75% of the alumina main futures contract at 3500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the alumina main futures contract at 3100 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20700 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Aluminum alloy** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 20200 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 19800 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis of Each Product - **Alumina** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation is weak, with high domestic operating capacity, incoming imported alumina, and expected new production capacity release in the second half of the year. The market trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing, and prices will fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Bullish factors: The Guinean government has revoked some mining licenses [2]. - Bearish factors: High operating capacity, rigid demand without increment, and increasing inventory [2][9]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation has little change, with inventory accumulation not over yet. The price has limited downside space in the short term and may rise in the medium term [4]. - Bullish factors: Expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and approaching peak season [4]. - Bearish factors: Decreasing terminal factory orders, slightly lower downstream operating rates, and increasing social inventory [10]. - **Cast aluminum alloy** - Core contradiction: Scrap aluminum prices are high, providing cost support, but demand is weakening. The futures price follows Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered [5]. - Bullish factors: High scrap aluminum prices and potential reduction in scrap aluminum imports [5]. - Bearish factors: Weakening demand expectations and serious over - capacity in the industry [7]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures contracts, as well as LME aluminum prices, are provided [8][11]. - **Spread data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of spreads between different contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, as well as the ratio of aluminum main contract to alumina main contract, are provided [15]. 3.5 Import Profit and Loss - The latest import profit and loss data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, along with their daily changes and daily change rates, are provided [24]. 3.6 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **Warehouse receipt data**: The latest warehouse receipt data for Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and alumina, including regional breakdowns, are provided [30]. - **Inventory data**: Seasonal inventory data for aluminum ingots in three regions, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipts are provided [30][33][35].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: Intraday Correction of Previous Gains, Risk Management Daily Report on August 14 - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] 1. Price Range Forecast 1.1. Nickel - Price Range: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 15.17% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] 1.2. Stainless Steel - Price Range: 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 9.27% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 1.8% [2] 2. Risk Management Strategies 2.1. Nickel 2.1.1. Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell Shanghai nickel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline; sell NI main contract with a 60% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options; sell over-the-counter/on-exchange options with a 50% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 [2] 2.1.2. Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs in advance; buy far-month NI contracts and sell put options - Strategy 2: Buy out-of-the-money call options; buy over-the-counter/on-exchange options [2] 2.2. Stainless Steel 2.2.1. Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell stainless steel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline; sell SS main contract with a 60% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options; sell over-the-counter/on-exchange options with a 50% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 [3] 2.2.2. Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy stainless steel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs in advance; buy far-month SS contracts and sell put options - Strategy 2: Buy out-of-the-money call options; buy over-the-counter/on-exchange options [3] 3. Core Contradictions - Intraday, Shanghai nickel showed a weak and volatile trend with no obvious changes in fundamentals. Nickel ore arrival inventory remained at a high level, and the bottom support was loosening, with a clear situation of strong supply and weak demand. Nickel iron remained firm intraday, with strong price support willingness from the supply side, but the actual acceptance of steel mills remained to be considered. The new energy chain salt plants had some support recently, with increased demand from some downstream precursor plants and relatively stable transactions. Stainless steel also corrected its previous gains intraday, and attention should be paid to whether it can stabilize above 13,000 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the previous follow-up increase in transactions was poor, and there was a certain downward adjustment at present. The expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August continued. Macroscopically, the subsequent trend of the US dollar index can be monitored [4] 4. Market Analysis 4.1. Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and include elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel [6] 4.2. Bearish Factors - Stainless steel enters the traditional off-season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow - Pure nickel inventory is high - Seasonal increase in nickel ore inventory, with loosening bottom support - Sino-US tariff disturbances still exist - South Korea plans to impose anti-dumping duties on China's hot-rolled products [6] 5. Market Data 5.1. Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 121,200 | -1,140 | -1% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 1 | 121,200 | -1,140 | -0.93% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 2 | 121,340 | -1,130 | -0.92% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 3 | 121,530 | -1,140 | -0.92% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | -120 | -0.93% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 102,257 | 12,747 | 14.24% | lots | | Open Interest | 66,437 | -4,493 | -6.33% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 20,720 | 142 | 0.69% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | -660 | 620 | -48.4% | yuan/ton | [6] 5.2. Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 13,025 | -105 | -1% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 1 | 12,945 | -100 | -0.77% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 2 | 13,025 | -105 | -0.80% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 3 | 13,090 | -95 | -0.72% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 160,562 | 238 | 0.15% | lots | | Open Interest | 135,237 | -8,989 | -6.23% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 103,521 | 3 | 0.00% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 340 | 70 | 25.93% | yuan/ton | [7] 6. Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value (tons) | Change from Previous Period (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory | 40,572 | 1,086 | | LME Nickel Inventory | 211,140 | 42 | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 954 | -12.2 | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 33,415 | 182 | [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The bond market may experience an inertial decline in the short - term, and long - term bonds are likely to see larger drops due to high trading congestion. Traders should not short, but can bet on oversold rebounds, and those holding long positions should set stop - losses [1][3]. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1.盘面点评 - On Thursday, bond futures prices declined across the board. The yields of spot bonds rose, and the yields of medium - and long - term bonds continued to rise after the futures market closed. The open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan, but the liquidity was loose, with DR001 at 1.317% [1]. 3.2.日内消息 - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 150 basis points or more, starting with a 50 - basis - point cut in September. - The weighted winning bid yields of the 3 - year and 20 - year national bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.42% and 2.0596% respectively [2]. 3.3.行情研判 - The bond market did not react to the previous day's social financing data. In the morning, it was suppressed by the A - share market breaking through 3,700 points. Although the stock market declined in the afternoon, the bond market still had weak rebound momentum. The A - share market may start to adjust, but whether the bond market can benefit depends on the adjustment range and time [3]. 3.4.数据一览 - **Futures Prices and Changes**: TS2509 closed at 102.35, down 0.02 from the previous day; TF2509 closed at 105.685, down 0.065; T2509 closed at 108.345, down 0.115; TL2509 closed at 117.82, down 0.49 [4]. - **Contract Positions**: TS contract positions decreased by 895 to 101,985; TF contract positions decreased by 1,970 to 175,039; T contract positions decreased by 5,864 to 231,061; TL contract positions decreased by 3,204 to 149,892 [4]. - **Basis and Trading Volume**: The basis and trading volume of each contract also showed corresponding changes. For example, the TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0201 to 0.0195, and the trading volume increased by 113 to 39,613 [4]. - **Funding Rates**: DR001 was 1.3164%, up 0.0002 from the previous day; DR007 was 1.4522%, up 0.0078; DR014 was 1.4816%, up 0.0128 [4].

8月14日，国内期市煤炭板块跌幅居前。其中，焦煤期货主力合约开盘报1212.5元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至发稿，焦煤主力最高触及1256.5元，下方探低1192.5元，跌幅达6.56%附近。 目前来看，焦煤行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于焦煤后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 申银万国期货表示，短期来看，焦煤自身基本面矛盾有限，并且当下宏观政策较为积极，盘面仍有支 撑，但同期低位的基差与近远月价差亦将制约盘面上行高度，因此当前盘面多空博弈加剧，建议投资者 谨慎操作。 宁证期货分析称，当前市场观望情绪渐浓，下游焦企在前期补库后采购节奏放缓，部分矿点高价资源成 交受阻，价格小幅回落，吕梁离石低硫主焦下调50元/吨至1430元/吨。需求端，焦炭第六轮提涨预计今 日全面落地，叠加铁水产量高位震荡，原料需求仍有支撑。综合来看，短期煤价回调空间有限，后续需 关注煤矿生产情况及下游焦钢企业减产安排。 瑞达期货（002961）指出，大商所调整焦煤期货JM2601合约交易限额和手续费标准，市场情绪预计受 限仓影响。基本面，矿端库存总体保持下降，精煤库存从上游矿山及洗煤厂向下游用煤企业转移，进口 累计增 ...

8月13日，广州南沙"金融30条"专项政策宣讲暨金融开放与创新发展大会举行，正式对外发布了上述《实施方案》，为政策落地提供明确"施工图"。 会上，一批聚焦跨境金融、气候投融资、船舶租赁等领域的重点项目集中签约，一批产业发展载体联合发布，助推南沙加速汇聚金融要素。全国首个期货金 融业全要素产业园——南沙期货产业园也举办招商启动仪式，宣布将于9月30日正式开园。 《关于金融支持广州南沙深化面向世界的粤港澳全面合作的意见》（下称"南沙金融30条"）于今年5月发布后，广州市各部门及国家金融监管部门驻粤机构 快速联动，在3个月内编制完成了《关于贯彻落实金融支持广州南沙深化面向世界的粤港澳全面合作的意见实施方案》（下称《实施方案》）。 大会透露，南沙拟通过2025-2030年这6年时间，将南沙建设成为我国金融业对外开放试验示范窗口、金融创新功能的承载区、粤港澳大湾区国际金融枢纽重 要节点。 广州南沙"金融30条"专项政策宣讲暨金融开放与创新发展大会现场。 88条措施绘就"施工图" 推动"南沙金融30条"尽快落地 《实施方案》围绕完善创新创业金融服务、加强社会民生领域金融服务、发展特色金融服务、推进粤港澳金融市场互联互通、 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Xu Chenxi from Nanhua Research Institute [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification: China Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed higher across the board, with all cash bond yields declining, and the medium - and long - end yields falling more significantly [1] - The open market had a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan, but the money market remained loose, with DR001 at 1.316% [1] - The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth reached the highest since February, which strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - The A - share market continued to rise strongly, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high point formed on October 8, 2024, but the impact on the bond market was limited, and the stock - bond跷跷板 effect weakened [3] - In terms of institutional behavior, funds continued to sell, while securities firms turned to buying. In the bullish atmosphere of the A - share market, active funds such as securities firms and funds may sell from time to time, but there is no need to worry too much [3] - After the continuous rise of the A - share market, it may fluctuate, which may provide some space for the bond market. Traders should not chase the rising market, control positions, and lay out next - quarter contracts on dips [3] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Contracts | Contract | 2025 - 08 - 13 Price | 2025 - 08 - 12 Price | Price Change | Last Week's Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.37 | 102.338 | 0.032 | 102.37 | | TF2509 | 105.75 | 105.695 | 0.055 | 105.78 | | T2509 | 108.46 | 108.41 | 0.05 | 108.565 | | TL2509 | 118.31 | 118.15 | 0.16 | 119.34 | [4] Contract Positions | Contract Position | 2025 - 08 - 13 | 2025 - 08 - 12 | Change | Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 102880 | 105870 | - 2990 | 31605 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 177009 | 178301 | - 1292 | 186234 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 236925 | 236006 | 919 | 236282 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 153096 | 153569 | - 473 | 153142 | [4] Basis | Basis | 2025 - 08 - 13 | 2025 - 08 - 12 | Change | Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0396 | 0.0284 | 0.0112 | 0.0136 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.023 | 0.0339 | - 0.0109 | 0.0031 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0072 | 0.0165 | - 0.0093 | 0.0147 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.0322 | 0.1906 | - 0.1584 | 0.0147 | [4] Trading Volume | Contract | 2025 - 08 - 13 Volume | 2025 - 08 - 12 Volume | Volume Change | Last Week's Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Main Contract Volume (lots) | 39500 | 34415 | 5085 | 27216 | | TF Main Contract Volume (lots) | 47424 | 48505 | - 1081 | 47098 | | T Main Contract Volume (lots) | 77715 | 76952 | 763 | 64393 | | TL Main Contract Volume (lots) | 125564 | 123182 | 2382 | 78797 | [4] Repo Rates | Repo Rate | 2025 - 08 - 13 Rate | 2025 - 08 - 12 Rate | Rate Change | Last Week's Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.3162% | 1.3144% | 0.0018% | 0.0019% | | DR007 | 1.4444% | 1.4404% | 0.004% | - 0.0001% | | DR014 | 1.4688% | 1.4833% | - 0.0145% | - 0.0065% | [4][5] Repo Trading Volume | Repo | 2025 - 08 - 13 Volume (billion yuan) | 2025 - 08 - 12 Volume (billion yuan) | Volume Change (billion yuan) | Last Week's Volume (billion yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 28708.9799 | 28708.9799 | 0 | 28816.6772 | | DR007 | 1081.5185 | 810.5676 | 270.9509 | 957.0987 | | DR014 | 107.5447 | 90.8441 | 16.7006 | 144.4292 | [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs and believe the current price has mostly priced in previous expectations. The lower support for copper prices has been raised from 77,000 yuan per ton to 78,000 yuan per ton [3]. - The impact of the mine accident at Chile's El Teniente copper mine may exceed expectations, and Coldeco needs to allocate more resources to address copper supply issues. The increase in the US dollar index on Monday evening slightly suppressed the valuation of the non - ferrous metals sector [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,020 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan and sell 25% of the CU2510C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase, buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries; decline of the US dollar index due to employment data; obvious lower support [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies; reduced global demand due to tariff policies; extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of Shanghai copper main is 79,020 yuan/ton (0% daily change), Shanghai copper continuous one is 79,020 yuan/ton (0.68% daily increase), Shanghai copper continuous three is 79,030 yuan/ton (0% daily change), LME copper 3M is 9,726.5 US dollars/ton (- 0.42% daily change), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15 (0% daily change) [4]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaohui, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 79,150 yuan/ton (0.79% daily increase), 79,130 yuan/ton (0.8% daily increase), 78,950 yuan/ton (0.73% daily increase), and 79,190 yuan/ton (0.7% daily increase) respectively [6]. Copper Scrap Price Difference - The current含税 refined - scrap price difference is 1,074.89 yuan/ton (37.1% daily increase), and the reasonable含税 refined - scrap price difference is 1,491.6 yuan/ton (0.41% daily increase) [8]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 23,275 tons (9.42% daily increase), and the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons (0% daily change) [12]. - **LME Copper Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 155,700 tons (- 0.1% daily change), and the registered warehouse receipts are 143,725 tons (- 0.73% daily change) [14]. - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 265,196 tons (1.54% weekly increase), and the registered warehouse receipts are 121,933 tons (- 1.91% weekly change) [15]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 100.28 yuan/ton (- 59.08% daily change), and the copper concentrate TC is - 38 US dollars/ton (0% daily change) [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tin prices remained volatile on Monday, in line with expectations. Macro factors have limited impact. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. There is no significant change in demand [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 268,380 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector remaining in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [8] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed and its transition from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data (Daily)**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous - one, and Shanghai Tin continuous - three are all 268,380 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of LME Tin 3M is 33,715 US dollars/ton, up 110 US dollars or 0.33%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.98, up 0.08 or 1.01% [7] - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, etc. have different degrees of weekly increases, with ranges from 0.58% to 0.92% [14] 3.4 Tin Inventory and Other Data - **Inventory Data (Daily)**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 143 tons to 7,326 tons, a decrease of 1.91%. The LME tin inventory decreased by 60 tons to 1,710 tons, a decrease of 3.39% [21] - **Other Data**: Tin import profit and loss is - 16,576.95 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [22]