Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The light industry sector is experiencing rapid growth in demand for trendy toys, driven by Generation Z, with products like blind boxes tapping into deep emotional values. The integration of AI technologies is expected to enhance the light manufacturing sector, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting domestic demand [2][3] - The export chain for light industry products such as thermos cups and office furniture is showing stable overseas demand, with tariff impacts expected to be gradually absorbed. Companies with overseas production capacity and supply chain resilience are recommended for attention [3] - The home goods sector is set to benefit from an additional 150 billion yuan in special government bonds for consumer upgrades, which is expected to stimulate demand and support economic growth [4] Summary by Sections Light Industry - The trendy toy sector is witnessing significant growth, with a sixfold increase in bookings for the Bubble Mart city park in June compared to the previous year, surpassing other entertainment venues in Beijing [2] - Companies to watch include Bubble Mart, Blokus, and Miniso [2] Export Chain - The light industry export chain is expected to recover as tariff policies become clearer, with a focus on companies like Jiangxin Home, Ninebot, and Jia Yi [3] Home Goods - The third batch of consumer upgrade funds will be released in July, with manufacturing PMI showing signs of improvement, indicating a potential recovery in home goods consumption [4][7] Textile and Apparel Industry - The demand for gold is projected to grow, with domestic jewelry companies expected to see sales and performance improvements in 2025. The outdoor economy is also boosting sales in sports apparel [8][9] - Companies to focus on include Anta, Li Ning, and Bosideng, which are expanding their market presence [10][11] Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to grow due to increased overseas production and enhanced core competitiveness, with companies like Huali Group and Weixing Co. recommended for investment [12][13]

Global Gold Market Overview - The international gold price surged to $3,335 per ounce on July 9, 2025, with domestic prices also rising, reflecting a strong correlation with global trends [1] - Over 90% of central banks surveyed, a record 73 banks, expect to increase their gold reserves in the next year, marking a 17 percentage point increase from the previous year [1] - Nearly half of the central banks indicated a clear intention to augment their gold holdings, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset amid rising global economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves has persisted for 15 years, driven by gold's long-term value retention, diversification needs, and stability during economic crises [1] - 73% of surveyed central banks predict a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves over the next five years, while the shares of the euro, renminbi, and gold are expected to rise [1] - As of June 30, 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, reflecting a 0.98% increase, which aligns with the growing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Domestic Gold Retail Market Price Analysis - Domestic gold retail prices are showing a steady upward trend, in line with international gold price movements [2] - The domestic gold base price was reported at 772.40 yuan per gram, up 0.60% from the previous closing price of 767.82 yuan per gram [4] - Prices for various gold products, including 9999 gold, increased by 0.55%, while some futures prices saw significant rises of 9.99% and 6.26%, indicating a surge in investment demand [4] Shenzhen Shui Bei Wholesale Market Prices - The Shui Bei market, a key center for China's gold and jewelry industry, reported prices for various gold types ranging from 782 to 783 yuan per gram, with platinum priced at 352 yuan per gram [5] Summary - The overall trend in the gold market as of July 9, 2025, is upward, driven by central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves [6] - Domestic gold prices are also rising, as reflected in both brand jewelry store prices and wholesale market prices [6] - Future gold market trends will depend on international economic conditions, geopolitical changes, and investor confidence [6]

黄金投资指南：2025年7月金市深度解析及投资策略 一、全球黄金市场概览：谨慎乐观，理性投资 各大品牌金店今日金价呈现出一定差异：周生生和六福珠宝黄金价格均为每克1005元左右（周生生1007元），铂金价格一致为每克559元；谢瑞麟黄金价格 同为每克1005元，但金条价格略低，为每克943元；金至尊和潮宏基与六福珠宝价格保持一致；菜百首饰黄金价格相对较低，为每克982元，铂金价格仅为 412元，金条价格为878元；老庙黄金黄金价格为每克1000元，铂金为470元，金条为955元；老凤祥黄金价格略高，为每克1004元，铂金与老庙相同，金条价 格为954元；中国黄金黄金价格最低，为每克969元，铂金为399元；周六福黄金价格为每克985元，铂金为582元，金条价格为890元。 价格差异主要源于品 牌溢价、加工费以及不同纯度金饰的差异。 三、贵金属市场实时动态：黄金小幅回调，其他贵金属普遍上涨 现货黄金(XAU)今日价格为3333.01美元/盎司，较昨日下跌3.34美元/盎司，跌幅0.10%。日内价格波动区间为3329.39美元/盎司至3345.47美元/盎司，开盘价 为3335.54美元/盎司，昨日收盘价为333 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.7% and 1.21% respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,208.497 billion yuan [2][6] - In terms of industry performance, the leading sectors included comprehensive services, public utilities, and real estate, while coal, pharmaceutical biology, and telecommunications lagged behind. Concept sectors that performed well included the China Shipbuilding System, biomass power generation, and the 2025 mid-term profit growth concept, whereas the Tonghuashun fruit index, recombinant protein, and weight loss drug concepts saw declines [2][6] Important News - As of the end of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded 3.3 trillion USD, amounting to 33,174 billion USD, an increase of 32.2 billion USD or 0.98% from the end of May. Additionally, China's gold reserves reached 7.39 million ounces, with an increase of 70,000 ounces, marking eight consecutive months of growth [3][7] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued the "2025 Home Economics and Agricultural Action Work Plan," which outlines 14 tasks aimed at expanding home service supply and promoting consumption in the home service sector to support rural revitalization [3][7] Industry Insights Emotional Consumption - The report highlights the rise of emotional consumption, indicating a shift from "consumption upgrade" to "consumption stratification." Consumers are increasingly seeking cost-effectiveness in traditional products while being willing to pay a premium for new products or services. This trend is driven by fast-paced lifestyles and information overload, leading to a focus on emotional well-being [8] Trend in Toy Market - The toy market in China is rapidly expanding, with the market size projected to grow from 22.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 76.3 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.11%. The market is characterized by a head effect, with leading companies enhancing efficiency through full industry chain layouts and strong IP resources [9] Gold and Jewelry Sector - The gold and jewelry sector is experiencing a shift from channel-driven to product-driven strategies. Despite a slowdown in store expansion due to rising gold prices, some companies are achieving rapid growth through superior craftsmanship and marketing. The report anticipates that gold will continue to be an attractive asset amid global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [11] Cosmetics Industry - The report notes a clear trend of domestic brands rising in the cosmetics sector, with local brands gaining market share despite overall weak growth in the industry. Young consumers are increasingly accepting domestic brands, which are focusing on R&D and marketing to enhance their competitiveness [11]

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, anticipating that easing international conditions and domestic policy stimulus will positively influence the sector's performance [3][42]. - The overall retail sales in May 2025 reached 4.13 trillion, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with goods retail sales increasing by 6.5% [11][14]. Beauty and Personal Care - In May 2025, the cosmetics retail sales grew by 4.4%, with high online penetration leading to diminishing promotional effects. However, leading domestic brands are expected to outperform the market due to the trend of domestic product substitution [11][12]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with rising sales expense ratios expected to pressure profit margins for some brands, although top players with strong product innovation may still achieve robust growth [11][12]. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw a significant year-on-year growth of 21.8% in May 2025, benefiting from a low base effect from the previous year. Products that appeal to younger consumers are expected to drive higher growth rates [11][12]. Supermarkets and Department Stores - From January to May 2025, department store sales slightly increased by 1.3%, while supermarket sales grew by 5.7%. Companies that adapt to the current value-for-money consumption trend through supply chain upgrades are expected to perform better [12][14]. Cross-Border E-commerce - The second quarter is expected to face short-term performance pressures due to external environmental challenges. However, leading platform companies are anticipated to demonstrate strong resilience in the medium to long term due to flexible tariff responses and solid product capabilities [12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different sectors, including: - Beauty and Personal Care: Recommended companies include 毛戈平, 丸美生物, and 登康口腔, which are expected to benefit from domestic product substitution and channel optimization [3][42]. - Gold and Jewelry: Companies like 老铺黄金 and 潮宏基 are highlighted for their potential to achieve accelerated growth due to favorable market conditions [3][42]. - Cross-Border E-commerce: Recommended companies include 小商品城 and 安克创新, which are positioned to capitalize on improving trade conditions [3][42]. - Retail: Companies such as 名创优品 and 重庆百货 are suggested for their low valuation and potential for improvement [3][42].

转自：智通财经 注：智通财经VIP为内容资讯产品，并非投资建议。以下内容仅为资讯价值展示非对相关公 司的推荐建议，非未来走势预测。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 市场热点一 跨境支付、稳定币 消息面上，7月4日央行就《人民币跨境支付系统业务规则（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见。此外香港特 区政府财经事务及库务局局长许正宇7日表示，目标今年内可发出稳定币牌照。 《公告全知道》：梳理隐藏在公告中的利好、利空。 6月30日21:58《公告全知道》 精选"金一文化"公司公告并展开梳理，发文指出：公司背靠北京海淀区国 资委，主营黄金珠宝首饰的研发设计及销售；公司积极拓展产业链，围绕金融科技纵、横方向发展，其 中开科唯识数字人民币产品利用区块链技术设计数币钱包的分布式账本，独立支持运营钱包核心处理体 系，掌握的部分技术可以应用于稳定币领域。金一文化收获3连板，5日最高涨幅达27.75%。 | | 金一文化(002721) | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 07-07 15:48:09 深 | | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The rise of emotional consumption is driving the development of related industries, as China transitions from "consumption upgrade" to "consumption stratification" [1][12][23] - Consumers are increasingly seeking cost-effectiveness in traditional products while being willing to pay a premium for innovative and emotionally valuable products [12][23] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry, cosmetics, and sports and entertainment products have shown positive growth, with gold and jewelry retail sales up by 12.3% and cosmetics by 4.1% in early 2025 [12][19] Group 2: Trend in Emotional Consumption - Emotional consumption is gaining traction due to fast-paced lifestyles and information overload, leading to increased demand for products that provide emotional comfort [23][25] - Young consumers, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, are the main drivers of emotional consumption, accounting for 78% of the market [25][29] - Female consumers represent a larger share of emotional consumption, with preferences differing from male consumers in product categories [25][30] Group 3: Trend in Toy Industry - The Chinese toy market is rapidly expanding, with the market size projected to grow from 229 billion to 763 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 35.11% [2][31] - Factors driving this growth include rising disposable income, the emergence of emotional value in purchases, and the popularity of quality IPs [31][32] - The market remains fragmented, with significant room for consolidation as the top three companies hold only 23.7% of the market share [2][39] Group 4: Gold and Jewelry Sector - The gold and jewelry sector is shifting from channel-driven to product-driven, with high dividend yields providing defensive attributes [3][19] - Despite a slowdown in store expansion due to rising gold prices, some companies are achieving rapid growth through superior craftsmanship and marketing [3][19] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to continue, driven by geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [3][19] Group 5: Cosmetics Industry - The domestic cosmetics market is witnessing a rise of local brands, with strong performance during promotional events like "618" [4][19] - Local brands are focusing on R&D and marketing to differentiate themselves, capturing market share from international brands [4][19] - The acceptance of domestic beauty brands among younger consumers is increasing, indicating potential for further market penetration [4][19]

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices has led consumers to deliberate on whether to purchase gold, particularly for jewelry or investment purposes [1] - The current gold price is influenced by international market trends, interest rate expectations, and heightened risk aversion [4] Price Trends - Major gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook are quoting prices between 1003-1005 yuan per gram, an increase of 5-7 yuan from previous prices [4] - China Gold's price is lower at 969 yuan per gram, allowing for significant savings when purchasing larger quantities [4] Price Differentiation - The price of jewelry gold is significantly higher than investment gold due to factors like craftsmanship, brand premium, and operational costs [5] - For example, a 10-gram gold chain from Chow Tai Fook costs approximately 10,050 yuan, while an equivalent investment gold bar costs around 7,850 yuan, highlighting a price difference of 2,200 yuan [5] Purchasing Strategies - For investment purposes, it is advisable to choose investment gold bars or wholesale gold, which have lower premiums and are closer to international gold prices [6] - For personal use or collection, consumers should compare prices across different brands to find the best deal [8] - For savings or appreciation, it is recommended to wait for a slight correction in international gold prices or to use a dollar-cost averaging strategy to mitigate investment risks [8] Timing for Purchase - Concerns about buying at a peak are valid, but high price levels do not necessarily indicate an imminent drop [9] - Gold investment should focus on long-term value preservation rather than short-term speculation [9] - If there is a pressing need and funds can be held long-term, short-term price fluctuations may be less impactful [9] Conclusion - The ongoing rise in gold prices necessitates careful consideration in purchasing decisions [10] - Consumers should align their gold product choices and timing with their specific needs to avoid unnecessary losses and achieve investment goals [10]

Summary of the Conference Call for Laopu Gold Company Overview - Laopu Gold is positioned as a high-end luxury gold jewelry brand in China, with 36 direct-operated stores expected to generate approximately 8.5 billion RMB in revenue by the end of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 168% [2][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be around 1.47 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 254% [2][5] - The company anticipates a net profit of at least 4.5 billion RMB in 2025 [2] Industry Insights - The market size of traditional gold in China has grown from 13 billion RMB in 2018 to nearly 160 billion RMB in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65% [2][6] - It is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 25% from 2024 to 2028 [6] Key Performance Indicators - Laopu Gold's average single-store revenue is expected to reach approximately 200 million RMB in 2024, with mature stores projected to achieve sales of 1 billion RMB [3] - The company maintains a gross margin of 40% to 45% and a net margin exceeding 17% by 2024 [5] Store Performance - The Beijing SKP store has shown exceptional performance, achieving sales of 780 million RMB in the first quarter of 2025, matching the total sales of the previous year [3][8] - The average sales per square meter at the Beijing SKP store surpass those of Tiffany and Van Cleef & Arpels [8] Expansion Plans - Laopu Gold plans to open 10 new self-operated stores in 2025 and 2026, with further expansion into Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, and Japan [2][9] Market Positioning - Laopu Gold is recognized as a leader in the traditional gold sector, with a significant presence in high-end shopping centers in first-tier and new first-tier cities, covering over 80% of the top ten high-end shopping centers in China [7] - The brand has a strong recognition among high-net-worth individuals, comparable to international luxury jewelry brands [7] Pricing Strategy - The company conducts two to three price adjustments annually, with a notable price increase in April 2025 leading to a 200% year-on-year increase in store efficiency [12] - A potential price adjustment in September 2025 is expected to further boost performance [12] Future Outlook - Laopu Gold's stock price is anticipated to reach new highs due to strong same-store growth, successful new store openings, and expansion into overseas markets [3][13] - The company is expected to achieve a profit of 5 billion RMB in 2025, with a valuation still having room for growth [13] Conclusion - Laopu Gold's success is closely linked to the rising gold prices and increased consumer interest in gold jewelry, alongside a significant boost in brand awareness post-IPO [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Bosideng, and Xtep International, among others [10]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the sportswear sector is stable, with a forecasted slowdown in revenue growth for Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 due to fluctuations in the consumer environment [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [4]. - The jewelry sector is experiencing significant disparities in performance among companies, influenced by high gold prices and varying consumer demand for gold jewelry [3][29]. Summary by Sections Sportswear Sector - The sportswear companies are expected to maintain a healthy inventory turnover ratio of around 5 as of the end of Q2 2025, despite a forecasted revenue growth slowdown [1][15]. - Anta Sports is projected to achieve over 10% revenue growth in H1 2025, while Li Ning's revenue is expected to remain flat with a 20% decline in net profit [1][18]. - Xtep International is anticipated to see a 5% revenue growth and a 10% increase in net profit for H1 2025 [1][19]. - 361 Degrees is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% to 15% and a similar increase in net profit for H1 2025 [1][19]. A-Share Brand Apparel - The A-share brand apparel sector is experiencing stable terminal retail performance, but individual company performance is diverging [2][20]. - Companies like Hailan Home are expected to see a revenue growth of 0% to 5% in Q2 2025, while Steady Medical is projected to grow by 15% to 25% [2][24]. - The report indicates that companies with healthy terminal performance and effective cost management may see year-on-year growth, while those struggling with revenue scale may face pressure [2][20]. Jewelry Sector - The jewelry sector is benefiting from rising gold prices, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry expected to grow by 12.3% year-on-year in 2025 [3][29]. - Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji are highlighted for their strong product differentiation and market competitiveness, with Chow Tai Fook expected to see a 10% increase in operating profit year-on-year [7][29]. - However, companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng are projected to experience revenue declines of 20% to 10% and 15% to 5%, respectively, due to fluctuating consumer demand [3][29]. Apparel Manufacturing - The apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see stable output in finished garments, while upstream textile manufacturing orders are affected by pessimistic expectations [3][6]. - Shenzhou International is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% to 15% in H1 2025, while Wei Xing Co. is expected to see a decline in both revenue and net profit by 10% to 15% [3][6]. - The report suggests that leading companies with integrated and international supply chains are likely to outperform the industry in the medium to long term [3][6].