【导读】稳定币概念股强势走高，胜利证券一度涨超 160% 中国基金报记者 李智 6 月 26 日上午， A 股三大指数小幅上涨，截至午间收盘，沪指涨 0.11% ，深成指涨 0.26% ，创业板指涨 0.31% 。 | 上证指数 | | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3459.66 | | 10420.86 | 1455.45 | | +3.68 +0.11% | +27.14 +0.26% | | +17.83 +1.24% | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | | 万得全A | | 1000.39 | 2134.99 | | 5299.91 | | +4.78 +0.48% | +6.59 | +0.31% | +17.18 +0.33% | 板块上来看，航天军工板块持续爆发，稳定币板块强势走高，软件、固态电池、化工等板块 涨幅居前；生物医药、汽车、券商等板块震荡调整。 | | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 本周A股市场连续三个交易日放量大涨，上证指数创出年内新高，A股总市值逼近百万亿大关，创下历 史新高。6月25日，在大金融等全板块带动下，三大指数全线上涨，创业板指数涨3%，军工、券商、软 件等板块爆发。整个A股市场超过3900只股票上涨，80只股票涨停，市场成交额达到1.64万亿元。6月26 日周四，沪深两市继续反弹，市场信心得到提振，市场情绪逐步回暖，投资者风险偏好提升。特别是港 股部分券商获得加密货币交易服务等利好消息推动，出现放量暴涨，某龙头券商甚至上涨数倍，极大地 激发了券商板块的投资热情，很多券商股大幅上涨。作为行情风向标的券商股被称为牛市旗手，在券商 股大涨带动下，市场信心得到提振，资金流入股市意愿增强，下半年A股市场和港股市场有望迎来新一 波行情。 不过，目前仍面临一些外部不确定因素，如国际关系仍存在一定不确定性，中东冲突虽近期停火，但仍 有反复可能，这些会增加下半年市场波动。但随着稳经济增长政策逐步落地，下半年我国经济面将逐步 企稳回升，经济数据有所改善，经济回升是股市回升基础，下半年A股和港股将延续结构性行情。以人 形机器人为代表的科技板块有望成为领涨 ...

Core Concept - Warren Buffett's wealth, exceeding $100 billion, exemplifies the ultimate practice of recognizing competitive advantages in businesses, with the "moat" theory serving as a core framework for value investing [2] Group 1: Economic Essence of Moat Theory - The moat represents a "monopolistic competition barrier" that allows companies to achieve long-term excess profits, contrasting with the traditional economic assumption of perfect competition [3] - Companies with a moat act as "micro-monopolists," leveraging differentiated competition strategies to break the diminishing marginal returns [3] - Tiffany's blue box exemplifies brand premium, where brand value and price discrimination theory combine to create a significant competitive barrier, with brand premium contribution in the luxury sector exceeding 60% [3] Group 2: Five Types of Moats - **Brand Moat**: Strong brands create cognitive monopolies, with brand loyalty increasing profits by 25%-85% for every 5% increase in loyalty [4] - **Switching Cost Moat**: High switching costs, such as those in the banking sector, create natural barriers to customer turnover, with retention rates in high switching cost industries being 3-5 times higher than in others [5] - **Network Effect Moat**: The success of platforms like Microsoft Windows illustrates the network effect, where value increases with user numbers, creating a self-reinforcing cycle [6] - **Economies of Scale Moat**: Walmart's "Everyday Low Price" strategy is based on scale economies, with logistics costs controlled at one-third of the industry average [7] - **Scale Moat**: Companies like Apple and Walmart leverage scale advantages and network effects to create high user migration costs and comprehensive cost control systems [8] Group 3: Dynamic Evolution of Moat Theory - In the digital economy, the forms of moats are evolving, with data monopolies and algorithmic advantages reshaping competitive landscapes, yet the essence remains in building sustainable competitive advantages for long-term excess profits [8] Group 4: Investment Insights - Investors should identify moats by analyzing financial statements and understanding the economic substance of competitive advantages, focusing on dimensions like brand value and cost structures [9] - Buffett's investment philosophy embodies the practice of moat theory, emphasizing the importance of finding companies with enduring moats for value growth [9]

Market Performance - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.11%, while the Northbound 50 Index increased by 1.38%. The total market turnover reached 1.6395 trillion yuan [1] Driving Factors for Upward Movement - The financial technology sector received positive news, leading to active performance in stock trading software [3] - Guotai Junan International was approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services, making it the first Chinese broker in Hong Kong to offer comprehensive virtual asset trading services [3] - The launch of the "Cross-Border Payment Link" between mainland China and Hong Kong aims to enhance payment efficiency and support the internationalization of the renminbi [3] Policy Developments in Financial Technology - The People's Bank of China announced plans to develop a new stage of financial technology development, focusing on digital transformation and the utilization of financial data [4] - Global regulatory frameworks for stablecoins are being established, with the U.S. Senate passing the GENIUS Act and the European Union implementing the Crypto-Asset Markets Regulation [4] Future Market Outlook - Major mainland companies are entering the Hong Kong stablecoin market, with JD.com and Ant Group preparing to launch stablecoin projects [5] - Stablecoins are expected to enhance cross-border payment efficiency by simplifying account structures and reducing transaction costs [5] - The integration of stablecoins with Real World Assets (RWA) is anticipated to drive innovation in decentralized lending and asset management [6] AI Commercialization Progress - Companies like OpenAI and Kuaishou are experiencing significant growth in AI application revenues, indicating a broad market potential for AI technologies [6]

Core Viewpoint - Apple's new in-car system CarPlay Ultra is facing resistance from several automakers, despite its high adoption rate in the market [1][2][3] Group 1: Automaker Resistance - Major automakers such as Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Volvo, Polestar, and Renault have no plans to integrate CarPlay Ultra into their vehicles, despite Apple's previous indications [1] - General Motors announced it will stop installing CarPlay and Android Auto in some North American electric models, highlighting a growing debate on the extent to which automakers should allow tech companies to control in-car experiences [1] - Renault is collaborating with Google and Qualcomm to develop a software-controlled vehicle, indicating a pushback against Apple's perceived encroachment [1] Group 2: Adoption and Usage Statistics - Aston Martin has become the first automaker to integrate CarPlay Ultra into its vehicles, while many others are developing their own infotainment systems to create additional revenue from in-car services and vehicle data [2] - Apple claims that 98% of new cars in the U.S. are equipped with CarPlay, with U.S. drivers using the system over 600 million times daily [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Automakers are in a dilemma as they seek growth opportunities in a market where car sales are peaking, while also needing to differentiate their brands in a competitive high-end market [3] - The shift towards electrification and autonomous driving is increasing the importance of software, intensifying the competition between tech companies and automakers over control of in-car driving experiences [3] - Porsche plans to support CarPlay Ultra in future models, indicating potential future adoption among more automakers [3] Group 4: Data Sharing and User Experience - Many automakers, including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, have developed their own infotainment systems but will continue to offer the older CarPlay system to meet consumer demand [4] - Aston Martin has integrated CarPlay Ultra while maintaining its brand identity, ensuring that traditional physical dashboards remain available for users who prefer them [4] - Aston Martin has set clear boundaries regarding data sharing during discussions with Apple, ensuring that vehicle data remains within its own infotainment system [4]

Group 1 - The financial technology sector is experiencing significant catalysts, with software ETF (515230) rising over 3.7% and trading volume exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited has received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services, allowing clients to trade cryptocurrencies and stablecoins directly on its platform [1] - The People's Bank of China has announced plans to develop a new stage financial technology development plan and implement policies to enhance the digital transformation of finance, leveraging vast financial data and diverse application scenarios [1] Group 2 - The "Cross-Border Payment Link" has officially launched, connecting the mainland's rapid payment system with other monetary authorities, facilitating more convenient and efficient remittances between mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - OpenAI announced an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 10 billion USD by June 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year, indicating strong commercial progress in AI applications [2] - Kuaishou's AI revenue exceeded 150 million yuan in Q1, with March ARR surpassing 100 million USD, showcasing significant growth in the AI sector [2]

Group 1 - The software sector ETF (159899) has risen over 4% and has experienced three consecutive days of gains, reaching a new 30-day high [1] - The trading volume amounted to 30.96 million yuan, which is an increase of 77.24% compared to the same time yesterday [1] - The total volume has decreased by 9 million units over the past month [1] Group 2 - The strategy suggested is to buy index ETFs that package market leaders to capitalize on the rebound [1]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rebound, with the financial and defense sectors leading the gains [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.34% [4] Financial Sector - The multi-financial, securities, and internet insurance sectors saw significant gains, with Dongfang Caifu (300059) up by 4.63% and achieving a trading volume of 12.245 billion yuan [1] - Hong Kong's brokerage sector experienced a surge, with Guotai Junan International rising by 68.55% after receiving approval to upgrade its securities trading license to include virtual asset trading services [3][4] Defense and Military Industry - The defense and military sectors, including military equipment and electronics, saw substantial increases [4] Earnings Reports - Recent earnings reports began to surface, with Tailin Micro announcing an expected revenue of approximately 503 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of about 37%, and a net profit of around 99 million yuan, representing a growth of approximately 267% [7][8] - Analysts noted that stocks with better-than-expected mid-year earnings forecasts have been leading the market in recent years [9] Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector showed strength, with companies like Qianxun Technology and Yintu Network experiencing significant gains, and leading stock Guoxuan High-Tech rising over 7% [12] - Recent developments included Quantumscape's announcement of a successful integration of its membrane technology, leading to a stock price increase of over 30% [14] - The solid-state battery market is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan globally by 2030, with rapid growth expected in the domestic market by 2027 [15] AI Sector - The AI sector demonstrated active performance, with leading stocks in the PCB sector, such as Shenghong Technology, rising over 5% and reaching historical highs [17] - The entire computing power industry chain is expected to benefit from policy support, market demand growth, and technological innovation, making the outlook for this sector promising [17]

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's latest statements regarding monetary policy and inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve needs more time to observe the impact of rising tariffs on inflation before considering interest rate cuts requested by President Trump. Current inflation rates have significantly decreased from mid-2022 but remain slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [3]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.3% in May, while the core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% [3]. - Short-term inflation expectations have risen recently, with tariffs identified as a driving factor. However, most long-term expectations remain aligned with the Fed's 2% target [3]. Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - The overall employment situation is still strong, with an average monthly job increase of 124,000 in the first five months of the year and a low unemployment rate of 4.2% in May [3]. - Although wage growth is slowing, it continues to outpace inflation, indicating a balanced labor market that is not a significant source of inflationary pressure [3]. Group 3: Tariffs and Economic Activity - Powell noted that the increase in tariffs this year could raise prices and exert pressure on economic activity. The impact of tariffs on inflation may be temporary, reflecting a one-time price level change, but could also have more lasting effects [4]. - The Fed is in a favorable position to pause any policy changes while further assessing the economic outlook [4]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Powell's testimony, U.S. short-term interest rate futures slightly declined, suggesting reduced expectations for an early rate cut by the Fed [6]. - Major U.S. stock indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.85%, Nasdaq up 1.16%, and S&P 500 up 0.83% [6]. - Large tech stocks experienced mixed results, with Nvidia rising over 2% and Tesla declining over 2% [8].

Group 1: Solid-State Battery Developments - BYD, Guoxuan High-Tech, and FAW Group have successfully launched 60Ah automotive-grade battery cells with an energy density of 350-400Wh/kg, a charging rate of 1C, and a cycle life of 1000 times, ahead of schedule by about six months [1] - By the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026, solid-state batteries are expected to reach a critical milestone in pilot testing, with equipment debugging and optimization nearing completion, significantly improving technology maturity [1] - With leading companies and the supply chain making strides, breakthroughs in equipment and materials are progressing smoothly, with sulfide electrolyte production surpassing kilometer-level rolls and pressure conditions reduced to 1-2Mpa [1] - By 2026, the price of sulfide electrolytes is projected to drop to 2.5 million per ton, with long-term potential to decrease to several hundred thousand per ton, bringing solid-state battery costs closer to those of liquid batteries [1] - This sets the foundation for large-scale applications of solid-state batteries in low-altitude aircraft, power systems, and robotics, with the market size expected to exceed 100GWh by 2030 [1] Group 2: Orders and Market Recovery - In November 2024, CATL and Leading Intelligent signed an agreement to further expand their cooperation, particularly in core equipment investment for battery cells, with CATL committing to prioritize 50% of new investments for Leading Intelligent [2] - From 2022 to 2024, despite high expectations, actual related transactions have declined, but orders are expected to rebound in Q1 2025, approaching levels seen in 2022-2023, indicating a gradual improvement in overall order conditions [2] - According to company forecasts, orders in 2025 are expected to increase by 20%-30%, reaching 24-26 billion, indicating a recovery trend for Leading Intelligent's orders [2] Group 3: VMware Pricing Controversy - Following Broadcom's acquisition of VMware for $69 billion, VMware implemented significant reforms, notably bundling its product offerings into the VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF) subscription suite, eliminating the previous perpetual licensing model [3] - Many users reported that this reform led to a dramatic increase in VMware product licensing costs, with some experiencing price hikes of 8 to 15 times, compared to purchasing specific products like vSphere or vSAN [3] - Broadcom responded by stating that this is not merely a price increase but a move to help users unlock greater value, highlighting that many customers overlook the comprehensive management, security, and automation features provided by VCF [3] - According to Broadcom's report, 53% of global enterprises prioritize deploying private clouds as a key IT task in the coming years, while 69% are evaluating the feasibility of migrating some workloads back to on-premises environments [3] - IDC's survey indicates that most enterprises maintain a hybrid architecture, with about 60% preferring on-premises IT systems for core workloads, and less than 2% opting for full public cloud adoption [3] Group 4: Technology and Market Competition in Robotaxi - Pony.ai's CTO recently stated that besides Waymo, Pony.ai, and Baidu, other companies have lagged behind in scaling and automation by two and a half years, while WeRide's CFO publicly countered, emphasizing WeRide's progress in practical implementation [4] - According to Grand View Research, the global Robotaxi market is projected to grow from $1.95 billion in 2024 to $43.76 billion by 2030, with Tianfeng Securities predicting it could reach 834.9 billion by 2030 [4] - Pony.ai's technology emphasizes redundancy and safety, utilizing a multi-sensor fusion approach, including LiDAR, cameras, and millimeter-wave radar, and continuously optimizing algorithms through a "shadow mode" [4] - The fleet has covered core areas in major cities and plans to expand to 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, with passenger fare revenue increasing by 800% year-on-year [4] - WeRide successfully listed on NASDAQ and earned the title of "Robotaxi First Stock" on October 25, 2024, with a closing market value of $4.491 billion on its first day [4] - This capital competition reflects the strategic intentions behind the technology and market rivalry, indicating that the company that gains an early advantage in the Robotaxi market will secure a favorable position in future market share battles [4] - From 2022 to 2024, Pony.ai's cumulative R&D investment reached $517 million (approximately 3.717 billion RMB), while WeRide's R&D expenses totaled 2.908 billion RMB during the same period [4] - Despite Pony.ai's slightly higher R&D investment, WeRide significantly leads in patent accumulation, having filed 921 patents compared to Pony.ai's 93 [4] - From 2022 to 2024, Pony.ai's main revenue figures were $68.39 million, $71.90 million, and $75.03 million, while WeRide's revenue during the same period was 528 million RMB, 402 million RMB, and 250 million RMB, indicating a significant decline in WeRide's revenue [4] - Both companies exhibit strong financial health, but WeRide faces challenges with decreasing operating cash flow, while Pony.ai has seen a significant decline in investment cash flow [4]