华尔街顶级策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)领衔的摩根士丹利股票策略师团队发布的最新研报显 示，市场共识预期正在显著低估迈入2026年之际多项看涨催化剂叠加所产生的对于风险偏好和估值的积 极影响;威尔逊领衔的大摩策略师们表示，2026年最大的意外，可能不是只有少数高权重大盘科技股继 续抬高标普500指数，而是"标普500指数中的中位数股票"在盈利增长同时也出现估值倍数上修，从而带 来更广泛的股票市场上行与"市场行情扩散"。 大摩在研报中提及的 "median stock(中位数股票)" 指的是一个统计学概念：在某个股票样本(通常是标普 500成分股)里，把股票按某个指标(在这份研报中则是估值倍数，——即预期P/E)从低到高排序后，位于 第50百分位的那些"最典型股票"。 大摩还引用了"标普500指数的中位数股票相对市值加权指数有约3个P/E倍数点的折价"这一现象，来详 细说明：除了少数权重极高的科技巨头外，更广泛的"普通标普500指数成分股"在多重利好催化之下仍 有显著的估值修复/抬升空间。 威尔逊将标普500指数在2026年年末的目标点位设定为7800点，并称其所描述的"多重协同驱动因素" ...

大摩在研报中提及的 "median stock(中位数股票)" 指的是一个统计学概念：在某个股票样本(通常是标普 500成分股)里，把股票按某个指标(在这份研报中则是估值倍数，——即预期P/E)从低到高排序后，位于 第50百分位的那些"最典型股票"。 大摩还引用了"标普500指数的中位数股票相对市值加权指数有约3个P/E倍数点的折价"这一现象，来详 细说明：除了少数权重极高的科技巨头外，更广泛的"普通标普500指数成分股"在多重利好催化之下仍 有显著的估值修复/抬升空间。 威尔逊将标普500指数在2026年年末的目标点位设定为7800点，并称其所描述的"多重协同驱动因素"正 在促成美国股票市场的滚动式周期复苏。因此大摩将2026年界定为"滚动复苏下的广谱股票市场牛市"， 主张"由点及面"的市场风险偏好回归与多个周期性的行业共振上行，即周期股领衔第二阶段牛市。 摩根士丹利的策略师们认为当前股票市场正处于新一轮盈利周期和结构性牛市的起点，预计2026年美股 市场的核心领导力将从英伟达、谷歌以及微软等受益于AI的超大盘科技股扩散至中小盘以及周期性的 核心行业。大摩策略师们强调，预计在2026年"美国经济软着陆+滚动 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街顶级策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)领衔的摩根士丹利股票策略师团 队发布的最新研报显示，市场共识预期正在显著低估迈入2026年之际多项看涨催化剂叠加所产生的对于 风险偏好和估值的积极影响;威尔逊领衔的大摩策略师们表示，2026年最大的意外，可能不是只有少数 高权重大盘科技股继续抬高标普500指数，而是"标普500指数中的中位数股票"在盈利增长同时也出现估 值倍数上修，从而带来更广泛的股票市场上行与"市场行情扩散"。 大摩在研报中提及的 "median stock(中位数股票)" 指的是一个统计学概念：在某个股票样本(通常是标普 500成分股)里，把股票按某个指标(在这份研报中则是估值倍数，——即预期P/E)从低到高排序后，位于 第50百分位的那些"最典型股票"。 大摩还引用了"标普500指数的中位数股票相对市值加权指数有约3个P/E倍数点的折价"这一现象，来详 细说明：除了少数权重极高的科技巨头外，更广泛的"普通标普500指数成分股"在多重利好催化之下仍 有显著的估值修复/抬升空间。 威尔逊将标普500指数在2026年年末的目标点位设定为7800点，并称其所描述的 ...

在经历了通胀回落、货币政策转向预期反复摇摆以及人工智能投资热潮的反复验证之后，美股正站在一 个不再由"降息叙事"单线驱动的门槛上。 即将进入2026年，投资者面对的将不是一个简单的牛熊判断，而是一组更为复杂的变量组合：美联储政 策空间正在收窄，企业盈利对经济软着陆的依赖度上升，而科技巨头的高估值则要求更为严苛的基本面 兑现。 华尔街开始重新审视一个问题——在增长放缓但尚未衰退的背景下，美股是将延续过去数年的结构性强 势，还是进入一个以分化、轮动和波动为主旋律的新阶段。 2025年震荡上行 对美国股市而言，2025年是极端的一年。 标普500指数在4月一度因特朗普的关税威胁而暴跌至熊市边缘，但随后在政策让步和AI热潮的推动 下，又重新回到上行轨道。 整体而言，美股2025年呈现高档震荡、趋势偏多的走势。特别是科技股持续扮演推升指数的关键角色。 人工智能、云计算与半导体相关投资动能延续，吸引中长期资金配置。 值得注意的是，散户资金净流入美股的规模不断攀升。数据显示，今年以来，散户注入美股的现金量， 较去年同期大幅增长53%，甚至超越了2021年交易狂热时期的高峰。与此同时，散户交易量在市场总成 交量中的占比显著提 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts a strong economic growth effect from the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) passed by the Trump administration in 2025, starting in 2026, leading to a "Goldilocks" macroeconomic environment in the U.S. with moderate growth and inflation [1][8]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. stock market has transitioned from a three-year "rolling recession" to a "rolling recovery," characterized by improved cost structures, strong earnings revisions, and released pent-up demand, creating a typical early-cycle environment [2]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to initiate a new capital expenditure cycle, with corporate investments, particularly in AI and manufacturing, becoming new growth engines [2]. Market Dynamics - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Nvidia and Google, will continue to lead earnings revisions in 2025, with expectations spreading to the S&P 493 constituents, particularly in industrial and financial sectors [6]. - Morgan Stanley defines the current situation as a "second phase bull market under rolling recovery," emphasizing a return of market risk appetite and broadening investment opportunities across various sectors [6][15]. Investment Strategy - Morgan Stanley recommends an "overweight" position in cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary goods, while suggesting a "low weight" in staples and real estate [13][14]. - The firm anticipates that the S&P 500 index could reach 9,000 points by 2026, driven by strong corporate earnings growth and AI-related capital expenditures [11]. Broader Market Trends - The market is expected to shift focus from defensive to offensive strategies, with AI remaining a key investment theme but not the sole driver of the upcoming bull market [9]. - The anticipated "risk reboot year" in 2026 will see a significant focus on microeconomic factors, with a unique combination of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies providing a strong boost to risk markets [11][14].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected slowdown in U.S. retail sales growth highlights a decrease in consumer spending amid a weakening labor market and temporary inflation caused by tariffs, yet the resilience in retail sales supports the narrative of a "Goldilocks" economic environment in the U.S. [1] Retail Sales Data - In September, U.S. retail sales showed a modest increase of 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of the expected 0.4% growth, following a strong 0.6% increase in August. Excluding autos and gas, sales rose only 0.1% [5][6] - Among 13 categories, 8 recorded growth, primarily in gas stations and personal care stores, while auto sales declined for the first time in four months, and spending on electronics, clothing, and sports goods also decreased [6][8] Consumer Behavior - The data indicates that middle and low-income consumers are becoming more cautious due to rising inflation and employment challenges, leading to a pause in spending [5][7] - Retailers like Walmart and TJX have noted that shoppers are increasingly seeking discounts and essential goods, while Home Depot has warned of delayed large home purchases [7] Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley economists predict that the OBBBA tax cuts from the Trump administration will significantly boost economic growth starting in 2026, alongside the temporary nature of inflation from tariffs and ongoing AI infrastructure investments by tech giants [1] - The NRF forecasts a record number of shoppers during the upcoming Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping weekend, which could provide a significant boost to the U.S. economy in Q4 and 2026, as consumer spending accounts for 60%-70% of GDP [9][10] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Following the retail data release, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, with an 80% probability of a rate cut according to CME FedWatch Tool [3][4][7] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the decision to cut rates, reflecting concerns over consumer affordability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected slowdown in U.S. retail sales growth highlights a cautious consumer spending environment amid a weakening labor market and temporary inflation due to tariffs, reinforcing the narrative of a "Goldilocks" soft landing for the economy [1][5][9] Retail Sales Data - In September, U.S. retail sales rose by only 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of the expected 0.4% increase, following a strong 0.6% growth in August [5][6] - Excluding autos and gas, sales increased by just 0.1%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending momentum [5][6] - The "control group" sales, a key indicator for GDP calculations, declined by 0.1%, marking the first drop in five months [8] Consumer Behavior - The data suggests that middle and low-income consumers are feeling the pressure from inflation and employment challenges, leading to more cautious spending [5][7] - High-income consumers continue to support overall spending, but there are signs of strain among lower-income shoppers, with many seeking discounts and essential goods [7][9] Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley economists predict that the OBBBA tax cuts and the temporary nature of inflation from tariffs will contribute to a strong economic growth effect starting in 2026, supporting the "Goldilocks" narrative [1] - The upcoming Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping events are expected to significantly boost consumer spending, which accounts for 60%-70% of U.S. GDP [9][10] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Following the retail data release, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, with an 80% probability of a cut according to CME FedWatch Tool [3][4][7] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the decision to cut rates, reflecting concerns over consumer affordability [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite a cooling labor market, the resilience of the U.S. job market is evident as initial unemployment claims unexpectedly decreased, suggesting it has not entered a phase of sustained negative growth [1][2] - Private statistical agencies reported that initial unemployment claims fell significantly from a revised 231,000 to approximately 218,000 for the week ending October 25, indicating a positive trend in the labor market [1] - The number of continuing unemployment claims is projected to slightly increase from 1.94 million to 1.95 million for the week ending October 18, reflecting ongoing support for those receiving unemployment benefits [1] Group 2 - The number of new initial claims for federal employee unemployment compensation (UCFE) was reported at 8,865 for the week ending October 25, indicating a decline but still at a high level [2] - Continuing claims for federal employees are expected to rise significantly to 20,594, marking the highest level since the last federal government shutdown ended [2] - Despite a slowdown in hiring activities compared to previous hot labor market conditions, there remains a resilient slight growth trend, with expectations for a "Goldilocks" scenario in the U.S. economy, characterized by moderate growth and low inflation [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected rise in U.S. Treasury yields this week is attributed to traders significantly reducing their interest rate cut bets following hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and resilient macroeconomic data, leading to a cooling of previously high expectations for rate cuts in December and 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Market Sentiment - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has stabilized above 4%, closing at 4.09% on Friday after dipping below 4% earlier in the week, reflecting a sudden shift in market sentiment [1]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped to approximately 50%, down from over 90% prior to Powell's hawkish comments [1][4]. - The ongoing U.S. government budget deficit and rising debt outlook have pressured bond traders to demand higher term premiums, keeping the 10-year yield around 4% to 4.5% [3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Labor Market - Despite a slowdown in the labor market, economic growth remains balanced, and inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, leading to a cautious stance on further rate cuts [5][8]. - Recent employment data indicates a significant slowdown in hiring activity, yet it still shows resilience with slight growth, suggesting that the economy has not entered a phase of sustained negative growth [4][6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Hawkish comments from Fed officials, including Kansas City Fed President Schmid, emphasize the appropriateness of maintaining current policy rates due to persistent inflation concerns [5][8]. - The internal division among Fed officials regarding the timing of monetary policy easing is evident, with some advocating for continued rate cuts while others stress the need for caution [8][9]. Group 4: Corporate Bond Market and AI Investments - Meta Platforms Inc. issued up to $30 billion in bonds, indicating strong AI spending among U.S. tech giants, which is expected to enhance revenue generation [6]. - The upcoming bond issuance is likely to exert pressure on Treasury prices, contributing to higher long-term yields as investors adjust to new supply [6][7].

Core Insights - The latest economic data indicates a significant contraction in service sector activity in the New York region, marking the steepest decline in over four years, which reflects a broader downturn in U.S. business activity and employment levels [1][2] - Following the unexpected weakness in the New York Fed's service sector activity index, the futures market has rapidly increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pricing in two consecutive 25 basis point cuts [1][5] - The New York Fed's service sector data is crucial for investors to gauge the U.S. economy and the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts, especially during a period of data delays due to the federal government shutdown [1][2] Group 1: Service Sector Activity - The New York Fed's composite index for service sector activity fell by 4.2 points to -23.6, the lowest reading since January 2021, indicating ongoing contraction in business activity [2] - Employment indicators within the survey have contracted for two consecutive months, suggesting a deteriorating view of the business environment [2] - Despite rising input costs reported by businesses, service price growth is slowing, and the outlook for the next six months remains subdued [2] Group 2: Broader Economic Context - The slowdown in the U.S. labor market has become a consensus view, with hiring activities reported to be slowing, yet the economy has not entered a phase of sustained negative growth [4] - Recent consumer spending data, along with PCE and GDP revisions, suggest that the labor market has not significantly worsened, supporting the notion of a "Goldilocks" economic scenario [5] - The expectation of further rate cuts by the Fed is bolstered by high-frequency data indicating a sharp decline in service sector sentiment and ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [5][6]