新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-05 持货商存在挺价情绪 铜价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-08-04，沪铜主力合约开于 78380元/吨，收于 78330元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.09%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 73,810元/吨，收于 74,060 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.47%。 现货情况： 矿端方面，外电8月2日消息，Koryx Copper公司已完成此前宣布的包销公开发行，此次共发行1905万股普通股，每 股价格1.05加元，为公司带来总计2000万加元的总募集资金。这其中包括承销商全额行使超额配售权所对应的股份。 该公司同时完成了一项非经纪私募配售，以相同发行价额外发行476万股普通股，总募集资金约500万加元。公司 计划将此次公开发行和私募配售的净收益用于推进其位于纳米比亚的Haib铜矿项目的技术研究，继续该矿区的勘 探工作，同时也将部分资金用于营运资本及一般企业用途。 冶炼及进口方面，卡莫阿–卡库拉50万吨/年的高技术一步炼铜冶炼厂将于2025年9月初点火烘炉。冶炼厂最低可以 按50%产能运行，相当于约25万吨铜的年化产量。公司预计，矿山现场的 ...

Group 1 - The copper industry stocks have mostly risen, with notable increases in companies such as Minmetals Resources (+2.61%), Luoyang Molybdenum (+1.53%), Jiangxi Copper (+0.82%), and Zijin Mining (+0.74%) [1] - A mining accident in Chile's O'Higgins region resulted in the death of 6 individuals, including 5 trapped miners, prompting Codelco to initiate an investigation and halt underground operations [1] - The affected mine accounts for over 25% of Codelco's total production, which was 356,000 tons of copper last year, raising concerns about potential impacts on production targets [1] Group 2 - On July 30, the U.S. President signed an announcement addressing the national security implications of copper imports, imposing tariffs on certain copper products [2] - The tariffs do not affect copper raw materials, leading to the disappearance of the COMEX copper premium, while U.S. copper imports have already exceeded last year's total, with 74.3% being unaffected by tariffs [2] - It is anticipated that traders will redirect copper shipments away from the U.S. to other markets such as Europe and Asia, with LME and SHFE copper prices expected to be driven by supply and demand dynamics [2]

Group 1: Copper Market Update - Most copper stocks have risen, with Minmetals Resources up 2.61% at HKD 3.93, Luoyang Molybdenum up 1.53% at HKD 9.31, Jiangxi Copper up 0.82% at HKD 16.02, and Zijin Mining up 0.74% at HKD 21.82 [1] - A mining accident in Chile's O'Higgins region resulted in 6 deaths, with all 5 trapped miners confirmed dead. Codelco has initiated an investigation and halted underground operations, impacting production targets [1] - The affected mine accounts for over 25% of Codelco's total output, which produced 356,000 tons of copper last year. The news of the mine's shutdown has heightened tensions in the already tight copper market [1] Group 2: U.S. Copper Import Tariffs - On July 30, U.S. President Trump signed an announcement addressing the impact of copper imports on national security, imposing tariffs on certain copper products. However, raw copper materials are not restricted by these tariffs [2] - As a result, the COMEX copper premium has disappeared, and U.S. copper imports have already exceeded last year's total, with 74.3% of imports being unaffected by tariffs [2] - It is anticipated that traders will cease shipping copper to the U.S., redirecting it to other markets such as Europe and Asia. LME copper is expected to return to supply-demand pricing, with current LME copper inventories increasing and domestic demand being weak [2]

Group 1: Copper Industry Performance - Most copper stocks have risen, with Minmetals Resources up 2.61% at HKD 3.93, Luoyang Molybdenum up 1.53% at HKD 9.31, Jiangxi Copper up 0.82% at HKD 16.02, and Zijin Mining up 0.74% at HKD 21.82 [1] - The copper market sentiment has been boosted by the recent mining accident in Chile, which resulted in the death of 6 individuals, including 5 trapped miners [1] Group 2: Impact of Chilean Mining Accident - Codelco has initiated an investigation into the cause of the mining accident, and all underground operations have been halted [1] - The affected mine accounts for over 25% of Codelco's total production, which was 356,000 tons of copper last year [1] - It remains unclear how long the production halt will last and whether it will impact the company's production targets [1] Group 3: U.S. Copper Import Tariffs - On July 30, former U.S. President Trump signed an announcement addressing the impact of copper imports on national security, imposing tariffs on certain copper products [2] - The tariffs do not restrict copper raw materials, leading to the disappearance of the COMEX copper premium [2] - U.S. copper imports have already exceeded last year's total, with 74.3% of imports being unaffected by tariffs, suggesting that copper will be redirected to markets outside the U.S., such as Europe and Asia [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics - It is expected that traders will no longer continue shipping copper to the U.S., affecting the supply dynamics [2] - LME copper is currently experiencing inventory accumulation, while domestic demand is weak due to the off-season, indicating that demand resilience may become a pricing factor for copper [2]

中长期来看，持续看好铜价上涨趋势，各国宽松政策和刺激措施尚未完 全出台，供给紧张状况依然存在，短期回调应视为投资机会。 Q&A 近期铜市场面临哪些主要挑战和影响因素？ 近期铜市场面临的主要挑战包括美国对铜的 232 调查关税落地以及对其他主要 经济体加征关税。这些政策将直接影响铜价。首先，由于过去半年多时间，各 大贸易商已经将全球各地的铜运往美国，导致非美地区表观需求增加，而 8 月 1 日关税落地后，这部分需求将消失，美国也需要几个月时间消化库存，从而 对铜价产生下行压力。其次，美国对主流经济体加税可能导致全球经济复苏预 期下降，进而影响中期需求预期。 怎么看待美国关税影响下的铜价 20250730 摘要 美国 232 调查关税落地短期内或对铜价产生下行压力，因前期非美地区 需求增加和美国库存积压，但长期来看，美国仍需进口铜满足需求，政 策重建国内供应链需时。 铜市场受资本开支低位、新项目稀少及老项目产量下降等因素支撑，供 给端扰动频繁，如 KK 矿冒顶事件和刚果金矿山事故等，进一步加剧供 给紧张。 美联储降息周期为铜提供金融属性对冲美元走弱的价值，预计年底前还 有降息空间，同时，紫金矿业等优质公司成本控制 ...

在华尔街长期以来有着"黄金空头"称号的花旗转向在短期内看涨黄金。花旗表示，2025下半年，美国经济的增长趋势趋于疲软以及与关税相关的通胀担忧预 计将持续升温，再加上美元走弱，金价将适度走高，进而可能再度创下历史新高。 盘面上，8月5日，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格盘中摸高0.78%，现涨0.31%，冲击日线3连阳！ ETF资金方面，有色龙头ETF（159876）获资金实时净申购120万份，值得关注的是，该ETF已连续4个交易日获资金净流入，合计金额348万元，反映资金 看好板块后市，逐步进场布局！ 成份股方面，铜业龙头白银有色、铜陵有色领涨超3%，黄金股湖南黄金涨逾2%，铝业龙头明泰铝业、云铝股份、南山铝业涨超1%。 7月30日，美国铜"232"关税落地，引发市场巨震。不过，业内多方仍然看好铜的市场走势，认为长期来看，铜精矿紧张仍是未来几年的主旋律，在需求上， 新能源转型对铜需求形成长期支撑。 具体到企业层面，部分相关企业表示相关政策调整的影响较小。其中，有色龙头ETF（159876）成份股洛阳钼业表示，公司自有铜产品为阴极铜，在豁免范 围内，且产品销往全球多地，因此此次关税政 ...

Group 1: Copper Market Outlook - The implementation of the US copper "232" tariffs has caused significant market reactions, but industry experts remain optimistic about the long-term copper market, citing ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply and sustained demand from the energy transition [1] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, a component of the leading non-ferrous metal ETF, report minimal impact from the tariff changes due to their global sales and exemption status for their copper products [1] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Recent US economic data has fueled expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, alongside rising geopolitical tensions that have increased safe-haven demand, leading to a continuous rise in gold prices [1] - Citigroup, known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, predicting that gold prices may rise due to a weakening dollar and inflation concerns related to tariffs, potentially reaching new historical highs by late 2025 [1][3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a surge in investment interest, driven by several factors including government policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, positive earnings forecasts from listed companies, and a significant year-to-date price increase of 24.91% in the sector [4] - As of July 31, 2025, over 80% of companies in the non-ferrous metals index have reported positive profit forecasts, indicating strong operational resilience [4] Group 4: ETF Performance and Composition - The leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) has seen a net inflow of 1.2 million units, reflecting investor confidence in the sector's future performance [1] - The ETF's composition includes significant weights in copper (24.5%), aluminum (15.3%), gold (14.4%), rare earths (11.5%), and lithium (8.2%), providing a diversified investment approach [6]

港股铜业股普遍上涨，其中，五矿资源、万国黄金集团涨超3%，中国黄金国际涨1%，江西铜业、中国 有色矿业跟涨。 消息上，智利国营矿业巨头Codelco旗下全球最大地下铜矿之一El Teniente因致命矿难停产，该矿占 Codelco总产量逾四分之一，去年产铜35.6万吨。停产消息引发市场对铜供应紧张担忧，推动伦敦金属 交易所铜价连续上涨。分析称，此次供应中断凸显铜市场供应链脆弱性。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01208 | 五矿资源 | 3.950 | 3.13% | | 03939 | 万国黄金集团 | 31.980 | 3.03% | | 02099 | 中国黄金国际 | 69.200 | 1.02% | | 00358 | 江西铜业股份 | 16.030 | 0.88% | | 01258 | 中国有色矿业 | 7.520 | 0.67% | 上周铜价曾大幅波动，美国意外宣布将精炼铜排除在新征收的进口关税范围外，导致铜价一度创下6月 初以来最低收盘价，而El Teniente的停产为市场注入了新的上涨动力。(格隆汇) ...

港股铜业股普遍上涨，其中，五矿资源、万国黄金集团涨超3%，中国黄金国际涨1%，江西铜业、中国 有色矿业跟涨。消息上，智利国营矿业巨头Codelco旗下全球最大地下铜矿之一El Teniente因致命矿难停 产，该矿占Codelco总产量逾四分之一，去年产铜35.6万吨。停产消息引发市场对铜供应紧张担忧，推 动伦敦金属交易所铜价连续上涨。分析称，此次供应中断凸显铜市场供应链脆弱性。上周铜价曾大幅波 动，美国意外宣布将精炼铜排除在新征收的进口关税范围外，导致铜价一度创下6月初以来最低收盘 价，而El Teniente的停产为市场注入了新的上涨动力。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Futures**: The domestic economy is under downward pressure and has entered a policy observation period. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range. The stock market is expected to be volatile, and it's recommended to wait and see. The bond market is suitable for band - trading. The EC in the shipping market is expected to be volatile and decline [1][2][3][4][6]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals are expected to stop falling and rise, and it's recommended to buy on dips. Copper is recommended to hold cash and wait. Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short term. Tin is expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to hedge inventory. Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a wide - range shock. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to enter a shock range. Rebar and hot - rolled coils have limited upward and downward space. Iron ore is expected to be strong. Coking coal and coke have short - term callback pressure but are not pessimistic in the long term. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended not to be overly pessimistic [11][12][14][15][16][18][19][22][24][26][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is under supply - surplus risk and has limited upward space. LPG supply and demand remain loose. It's recommended to expand the TA processing fee at low levels. MEG and bottle chips are expected to fluctuate in a range. Methanol's short - term fundamentals are weak. PP is expected to return to a weak and volatile pattern. PE is expected to be volatile in the short term and wait for demand recovery. Pure benzene and styrene are recommended to narrow the price difference. Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by crude oil and falls. Urea's 09 contract is expected to be volatile and weak. Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass is in a weak - balance state and will move towards the delivery logic. Caustic soda needs to pay attention to the delivery logic and supply - side pressure [32][34][35][38][39][40][42][43][44][45][46][47][49][50][53][54][55][56][57][58][60]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oilseeds, it's recommended to go long on the far - month contracts. Vegetable oils are expected to be weak and adjust, with soybean oil being relatively stronger. Corn and starch are expected to be in a narrow - range shock and decline slightly [67][68][69][70][71][72]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined, and the economy is under downward pressure. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are affected by non - farm data and inflation [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is affected by the weakening of the US dollar and the central bank's guidance, and it's expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock market is expected to be volatile due to the lack of a continuous leading sector and short - term positive factors [5][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline of treasury bond futures in the afternoon is affected by the A - share market and false news. It's recommended for band - trading [6][7]. - **Shipping (EC)**: Affected by US tariffs and spot quotes, the EC is expected to be volatile and decline [9][10]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose due to the recovery of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and they are expected to stop falling and rise [11]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are affected by the US dollar index, and it's recommended to hold cash and wait [12][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is under pressure and fluctuates, alumina is weak, and cast aluminum alloy is in a shock state [14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to decline slightly due to the weakening of the US dollar index [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It's expected to be in a wide - range shock due to supply - side disturbances [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to enter a shock range, and it's recommended to pay attention to the callback buying opportunity for industrial silicon [19][20]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: They have limited upward and downward space due to unclear driving factors [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: It's expected to be strong due to good fundamentals and high demand [24][26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They have short - term callback pressure but are not pessimistic in the long term [27][28]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are recommended not to be overly pessimistic as the market sentiment has cooled but the fundamentals are supported [29][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It's under supply - surplus risk and has limited upward space due to weakening seasonal demand [32][34]. - **LPG**: Supply and demand remain loose [35][37]. - **PX - PTA**: It's recommended to expand the TA processing fee at low levels as the TA processing fee is at a historical low [38][39]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to fluctuate in a range as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out [40][42]. - **Methanol**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and it's necessary to pay attention to downstream resistance and port - inland price differences [43][44]. - **PP**: It's expected to return to a weak and volatile pattern due to supply - demand imbalance [45][46]. - **PE**: It's expected to be volatile in the short term and wait for demand recovery [47][49]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: It's recommended to narrow the price difference between them, and styrene is recommended to be shorted on rallies [50][53]. - **Fuel Oil**: It's weak due to sufficient supply and low demand [54]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It's affected by crude oil and falls, and it's recommended to be short - configured [55]. - **Urea**: The 09 contract is expected to be volatile and weak due to the pressure on the spot market and the weakening of agricultural demand [56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass is in a weak - balance state and will move towards the delivery logic. Caustic soda needs to pay attention to the delivery logic and supply - side pressure [57][58][60]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds**: It's recommended to go long on the far - month contracts as the domestic far - month has a supply - demand gap [67][68][69]. - **Vegetable Oils**: They are expected to be weak and adjust, with soybean oil being relatively stronger [69][70]. - **Corn and Starch**: They are expected to be in a narrow - range shock and decline slightly due to weak demand [71][72]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: It's expected to be in a shock state after the price decline, and it's recommended to wait and see [61]. - **Log**: It's recommended for non - industrial customers to operate in a range and for industrial customers to hedge. The price fluctuates around the warehouse - receipt cost [62][63][64]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is weak, and the cost is disturbed. The supply is loose, and the demand changes little [64][65][66].