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宏观利好带动聚烯烃盘面小幅走强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 07:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The Sino - US economic and trade talks declared a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff. Under the macro - positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, and the futures market has a slight increase. PE's supply is recovering, while PP's future supply pressure is large. The inventory in the upstream and mid - stream of polyolefins has accumulated. The cost - side support is weak, and the downstream agricultural film's operating rate continues to rise [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7329元/吨(+15),PP主力合约收盘价为7091元/吨(-4),LL华北现货为7250元/吨(+30),LL华东现货为7280元/吨(+0),PP华东现货为7040元/吨(+0),LL华北基差为-79元/吨(+15),LL华东基差为-49元/吨(-15),PP华东基差为-51元/吨(+4) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.1%(+3.0%),PP开工率为77.3%(+0.4%);PE油制生产利润为368.6元/吨(-5.1),PP油制生产利润为-111.4元/吨(-5.1),PDH制PP生产利润为225.1元/吨(+17.0) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No relevant detailed data provided 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为-74.1元/吨(-2.7),PP进口利润为-508.6元/吨(-2.8),PP出口利润为30.6美元/吨(+0.3) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为13.1%(+0.4%),PE下游包装膜开工率为49.3%(+0.6%),PP下游塑编开工率为41.1%(+0.0%),PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.8%(+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Polyolefin upstream and mid - stream inventories have accumulated, but no specific inventory data provided [2]
华联期货PVC周报-20250810
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 13:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand situation of PVC remains weak. Although the calcium carbide price has rebounded slightly, it is still in a weak range, lacking valuation drive. The trends within the black building materials sector are divergent. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct intraday short - term trading, with the V2601 contract range reference at 5050 - 5300 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - Side - **Capacity and Output**: The effective PVC capacity has reached 2.852 billion tons. Last week, the PVC output was 475,900 tons, a 5.22% increase from the previous week and a 9.63% increase year - on - year. The calcium carbide method's effective capacity is 2.033 billion tons, accounting for about 71.3%, with a weekly output of 336,100 tons (up 3.54% week - on - week and 0.30% year - on - year). The ethylene method's effective capacity is 767 million tons, accounting for about 28.7%, with a weekly output of 139,800 tons (up 9.48% week - on - week and 41.21% year - on - year) [19][22][25]. - **开工率**: Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 4.73 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively high level. The calcium carbide method's operating rate was 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.78 percentage points year - on - year. The ethylene method's operating rate was 81.49%, up 2.50 percentage points week - on - week and 15.73 percentage points year - on - year [28][30]. - **Imports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC imports were 124,300 tons, a 0.51% increase year - on - year. The cumulative imports of plastics and their products were 9.8782 billion tons, a 2.97% decrease year - on - year [33]. 3.2 Demand - Side - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.0172 billion tons, a 3.03% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC sales - to - production ratio was 175%, a 14 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week but a 46 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [38]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The comprehensive operating rate of downstream products increased slightly but remained the weakest in the same period. The operating rate of mainstream pipes continued to decline, while those of profiles and films remained stable. Weak real - estate conditions have dragged down demand, resulting in insufficient orders for downstream enterprises and low inventory - building willingness [41]. - **Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative PVC exports were 1.9605 billion tons, a significant 50.26% increase year - on - year, but there was a significant month - on - month decline in June. The cumulative exports of PVC flooring materials were 2.09 million tons, a 11.14% decrease year - on - year [47][49]. 3.3 Inventory - The domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 77,660 tons last week, a 7.50% increase week - on - week and a 17.48% decrease year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 337,200 tons, a 2.35% decrease week - on - week and a 12.66% increase year - on - year. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase [54][56]. 3.4 Valuation - **Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke remained stable last week, lower than the same period last year. The price of calcium carbide increased significantly week - on - week, with the mainstream price in Wuhai at 2,350 yuan/ton. The prices of ethylene and vinyl chloride remained stable week - on - week and were lower than the same period last year. The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly week - on - week but was slightly higher year - on - year, while the price of liquid chlorine rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [60][63][66]. - **Profit**: The loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - method PVC widened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The loss of the ethylene method also widened slightly week - on - week and was at the weakest level in the same period. The production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali rebounded slightly week - on - week and was higher year - on - year [69][73]. 3.5 Futures Market - **Contract Spreads**: Last week, the 1 - 5 spread of PVC weakened, remaining stable year - on - year; the 5 - 9 spread fluctuated, lower than the same period last year. The 9 - 1 spread had a narrow - range fluctuation, higher than the same period last year. The basis of the main contract weakened week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, indicating that expectations are stronger than reality [12][15].
基本面变动不大,继续偏弱震荡
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 07:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the polypropylene market have changed little and are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. The supply is relatively abundant, the domestic apparent demand has slightly deteriorated, and the cost side is expected to change little in the short term [1][6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions No relevant content provided. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: This week's production met expectations, with few new maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly. The weekly average import volume was 75,000 tons, and the export volume was 37,500 tons, both remaining unchanged from last week. In June, exports were 235,300 tons, and imports were 243,300 tons, also in line with expectations [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand this week was 779,600 tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from last week. Next week, the apparent demand is expected to be around 820,000 tons according to the seasonality [6]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight inventory build - up this week, and it is expected to continue to build up slightly next week. The upstream inventory of some sources decreased slightly, while the total inventory increased [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis showed an overall trend of fluctuating and strengthening, but there were few opportunities. The 1 - 5 monthly spread fluctuated and weakened, and the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 monthly spreads also showed certain fluctuations [9]. - **Variety Spread**: The spreads between fiber -拉丝, copolymer -拉丝, and injection -拉丝 all increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spread between pellets and powders was too narrow, which had a certain supporting effect on the pellet price [9]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Upstream**: Upstream maintenance is gradually entering the peak period, but the overall supply is still relatively abundant, with a focus on active sales [11]. - **Midstream**: The mid - stream sales situation has slightly deteriorated, and some futures - spot arbitrageurs have opportunities to sell after the market decline [11]. - **Downstream**: The downstream replenishment willingness has deteriorated as they are digesting their previous inventory [11]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a weakly fluctuating thinking, beware of callback risks, and consider a strategy of selling call options. The strategy of going long on PP and short on MA has been recommended to take profit and exit [11].
PVC月报:供给压力逐渐增大,弱基本面下高估值难以支撑-20250808
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 14:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is currently facing a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. The fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether subsequent exports can exceed expectations to reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern. In the short term, prices have fallen sharply after the anti - involution sentiment subsided. In the medium term, if there is no policy for device clearance, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry still faces the pressure of de - valuing to clear excess capacity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,340 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 90 yuan/ton; Shandong calcium carbide is 2,780 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 75 yuan/ton; and Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 620 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration first soared and then declined, and the profit from ethylene production remained low, with weak valuation support [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.5%, a monthly increase of 2%. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 78.7%, a monthly decrease of 2.2%, and the ethylene method is 81.5%, a monthly increase of 13%. Last month, the maintenance volume was high, and the average capacity utilization rate was lower than that in June, with reduced supply pressure. This month, the maintenance intensity is lower than last month, and the newly - put - into - production devices are gradually releasing output, so the supply pressure is expected to increase significantly [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, there was a high export growth rate in the first five months. In June, with the rainy season in Southeast Asia and the uncertainty of export policies to India, overall exports declined significantly. Currently, both India's BIS policy and anti - dumping policy have been extended, improving the weak outlook for the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries stopped falling and rebounded. The pipe load is 32.1%, a monthly decrease of 7.4%; the film load is 76.9%, a monthly increase of 4.7%; the profile load is 36.9%, a monthly increase of 2.2%. The overall downstream load is 42.9%, the same as last month. The overall downstream performance is worse than the same period last year, and the overall demand is weak. The main incremental demand depends on exports [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of the month, the in - factory inventory was 33.7 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.9 tons; the social inventory was 77.7 tons, a monthly increase of 18.5 tons; the overall inventory was 111.4 tons, a monthly increase of 13.6 tons; and the warehouse receipts continued to rise. Currently, it has entered the inventory accumulation cycle, and the upstream inventory is gradually transferred to the middle - stream. In the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, if the export end does not perform better than expected, inventory accumulation will continue [11]. 3.2 Cost End - The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai is 2,340 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 90 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide in Shandong is 2,780 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 75 yuan/ton; and the price of Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 620 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The semi - coke price has stabilized, and caustic soda is weak [11][49]. 3.3 Supply End - In 2025, the capacity investment in the PVC industry is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. New capacity of 250 tons/year is expected to be put into production, including 100 tons/year of ethylene - based and 150 tons/year of calcium - carbide - based. The newly - put - into - production devices include those of Xinsheng Chemical, Jintai Chemical, Wanhua Chemical (Phase II), Tianjin Bohua, Zhejiang Jiahua, Qingdao Gulf, and Gansu Yaowang [58][63]. 3.4 Demand End - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries (pipes, films, and profiles) of PVC stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of exports, there was a high growth rate in the first five months, but it declined significantly in June. With the extension of India's anti - dumping policy, there may be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The overall downstream demand is weak, and the main incremental demand depends on exports [11].
聚烯烃日报:库存累积,聚烯烃走势偏弱-20250808
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical plants has led to continuous release of new production capacity, resulting in significant future supply - side pressure. The current maintenance season has temporarily offset the pressure of new capacity expansion. The propane price is weak, and the cost - side support is weak. The downstream demand for polyolefins remains in the seasonal off - season, with weak demand. The inventory of polyolefins in the middle and upper reaches is slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher year - on - year, and the short - term fundamentals remain weak [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,297 yuan/ton (- 24), PP main contract at 7,075 yuan/ton (- 3). LL North China spot was 7,210 yuan/ton (- 20), LL East China spot 7,280 yuan/ton (+ 0), PP East China spot 7,040 yuan/ton (- 10). LL North China basis was - 87 yuan/ton (+ 4), LL East China basis - 17 yuan/ton (+ 24), PP East China basis - 35 yuan/ton (- 7) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 84.1% (+ 3.0%), PP operating rate 77.3% (+ 0.4%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 348.6 yuan/ton (+ 56.1), PP oil - based production profit - 121.4 yuan/ton (+ 56.1), PDH - based PP production profit 187.7 yuan/ton (- 115.0) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 74.0 yuan/ton (- 2.2), PP import profit - 498.5 yuan/ton (+ 7.7), PP export profit 29.3 US dollars/ton (- 1.0) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.1% (+ 0.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 48.7% (+ 0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 41.1% (+ 0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 60.8% (+ 0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - The new production capacity is continuously released, and the future supply - side pressure is large. The maintenance season temporarily offsets the pressure. The propane price is weak, and the cost - side support is weak. The downstream demand is in the off - season, with weak performance. The inventory is slowly decreasing but remains high year - on - year, and the short - term fundamentals are weak [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3]
PVC:焦煤从成本端支撑盘面反弹 基本面暂无波动
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-08 02:06
免责声明:本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下,报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有,客户在接收到本报告后,应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定,不得刊载或转发。 库存:截至7月31日,中国PVC生产企业厂库库存可产天数在5.8天,环比减少3.33%,周内企业部分检 修或因不可抗力降负荷减产,集中交付高预期订单及向市场社会仓库发运,企业在库库存天数减少。 【PVC行情展望】 焦煤走强,成本端支撑盘面偏强,现货价格整体稳定。不过基本面来看,预计后市PVC价格继续承压, 库存压力持续增加,需求难以改善,成本端支撑有限,因此未来价格走弱概率较大。8月国内外新增产 能持续,福建万华、天津渤化预计8月释放产能,甘肃耀望计划8月投产,青岛海湾计划9月投产,新增 产能的释放为PVC供应端注入新的压力。而下游端暂无好转预期,下游制品企业开工率持续偏低,前期 pvc价格上涨后下游观望较多,买货积极性较弱,行业整体尚处于淡季。整体来看 ...
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250805
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 05:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: This week, it fluctuates with coal. Its fundamental situation changes little and remains in the process of inventory accumulation. Imports are high, and the valuation is currently normal. In the short - term, it tends to fluctuate [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of top - two oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The top - two oil companies are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. In August, maintenance decreases month - on - month, and domestic linear production increases month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [4]. - PP: The upstream top - two oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the middle - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 200. The subsequent supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face medium - to - high pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - PVC: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 450. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the mid - and upstream is continuously de - stocking at a slower pace. In summer, the northwest devices have seasonal maintenance. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability in July - August. The current static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [4]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The daily change in the Jiangsu spot price was - 27, the South China spot price changed by - 10, and the Northwest discounted price on the disk increased by 20. Other indicators such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged [2]. - **Viewpoint**: Fluctuates with coal, fundamentals change little, in inventory accumulation, normal valuation, short - term oscillation [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 820. The daily change in the North China LL price was - 40, and the East China LL price changed by - 35. The主力期货 price decreased by 38 [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Neutral overall inventory, attention to LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new device commissioning in 2025 [4]. PP - **Price Data**: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased by 50, the East China PP price decreased by 40, and the主力期货 price decreased by 24 [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream inventory accumulation, middle - stream de - stocking, attention to export volume and PDH device maintenance [4]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased by 50, and the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price decreased by 60 [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Seasonal downstream weakness, slow mid - and upstream de - stocking, attention to commissioning and export in July - August [4].
PVC周报:反内卷情绪退潮,回归基本面交易-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-02 14:23
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The fundamentals show that the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a new high this year, with significant valuation pressure. The number of maintenance projects is gradually decreasing, and the production volume is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of devices are being put into operation. On the downstream side, the domestic start - up level is at a five - year low. Regarding exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended, and there may be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, weakening cost support. In the medium term, the industry is continuously suppressed by the substantial increase in production capacity and the continuous decline in real estate demand. The industry pattern has deteriorated and needs to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the domestic excess production capacity. Overall, under the reality of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It is necessary to observe whether subsequent exports can exceed expectations and reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern. In the short term, there has been a significant decline after the anti - involution sentiment subsided. If there is no policy to clear devices in the medium term, the supply - demand pattern will still be weak, and the industry still faces the pressure of reducing valuation to clear production capacity [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. In terms of profit, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has risen to a new high this year, and the profit of ethylene production has continued to rebound. Currently, the valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%; among them, the calcium carbide method is 76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%; the ethylene method is 79%, a month - on - month increase of 8.7%. The supply - side load increased slightly last week, mainly due to the resumption of maintenance at Qilu Petrochemical, Yidongdongxing, and Fujian Wanhua. It is expected that the load will further recover next week. The maintenance volume in August will decrease, and with the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure will increase [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the pressure of weak exports in the third quarter. There is an expectation of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The start - up of the three major downstream industries rebounded last week. The load of pipes was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the load of films was 77%, unchanged from the previous week; the load of profiles was 37%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The overall downstream load was 42.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The overall downstream start - up has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 854,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58,000 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 345,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,000 tons; the social inventory was 722,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,000 tons; the overall inventory was 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons; the number of warehouse receipts increased. In the subsequent domestic pattern of strong supply and weak demand, supply and demand will turn to inventory accumulation. It is necessary to observe whether there are any surprises in exports [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market No specific text - based summary content provided, only multiple charts about PVC term structure, prices, basis, spreads, positions, and trading volumes from 2021 to 2025 are presented [16][18][20]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has recovered to a new high this year, with significant valuation pressure [40]. - **Inventory**: Multiple charts show the inventory data of PVC in - factory, ethylene - based in - factory, calcium carbide - based in - factory, social inventory, total inventory, and warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [34][37][39]. 4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: The price of calcium carbide has decreased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The price and inventory trends of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the calcium carbide start - up rate [47][48]. - **Other Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke has rebounded, while the prices of ethylene and caustic soda have remained stable. The price trends of semi - coke, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts [50][52][55]. 5. Supply Side - **Capacity Expansion**: The capacity expansion of PVC in 2025 is significant, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 2.5 million tons/year of new capacity is expected to be put into operation, including projects such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II). The raw material consumption for the new capacity is also presented [58][63]. - **Production**: The PVC start - up rate has remained stable, and the overall production volume is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the weekly production volume [66][69][72]. 6. Demand Side - **Downstream Start - up**: The start - up of the three major downstream industries of PVC has rebounded. The start - up rates of PVC pipes, films, and profiles from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts [75]. - **Exports**: The anti - dumping policy of India has been extended, alleviating the pressure of weak exports in the third quarter. There is an expectation of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The export volume of PVC and the export volume to India from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the pre - sales volume [11][83][86]. - **Real Estate Impact**: The chart shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year change in China's housing completion area, reflecting the impact of the real estate market on PVC demand [90].
欧亚经济联盟对阿塞拜疆和土库曼斯坦聚丙烯和丙烯共聚物启动反倾销调查
news flash· 2025-07-29 08:01
Group 1 - The Eurasian Economic Commission has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into polypropylene and propylene copolymers originating from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan [1]
PVC投资周报:宏观情绪较好,盘面价格震荡偏强-20250728
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 06:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - The report provides a PVC main weekly data summary, including price, production, inventory, and other data. For example, the latest PVC main price is 5373 yuan/ton, up 8.83% from last week; China's production is 45.15 million tons, down 1.03% from last week [5]. PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - There are multiple charts showing the trends of PVC basis, different contract spreads, etc., from 2019 - 2025, such as the basis, SG - 5, and main contract trends from 2025/3/27 to 2025/6/27 [8]. PART THREE: PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - There are numerous charts related to PVC supply - demand fundamentals from 2019 - 2025, covering aspects like production, inventory, and price trends over different weeks of each year, such as the trends of production, inventory, and price from the 3rd week to the 53rd week of each year [17][18].