Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the commitment of Ordos City in Inner Mongolia to ecological civilization construction, aiming to enhance the ecological environment while promoting high-quality economic development and improving the business environment [1][14]. Group 1: Ecological Protection and Development - Ordos City is focused on building a national model for ecological governance, integrating "ecology+" into all aspects of social and economic development to ensure the safety of the Yellow River and enhance urban green spaces [1][14]. - The city has implemented a comprehensive ecological protection strategy, including the establishment of 171 ecological environment control units and the optimization of land use through ecological protection red lines and agricultural land boundaries [4][16]. Group 2: Energy Transition and Industrial Upgrading - Ordos has accelerated its green energy transition, becoming one of the first cities in China to implement pollution reduction and carbon reduction initiatives, with a total installed power capacity of 60.33 million kilowatts, of which renewable energy accounts for 39.3% [17][19]. - The city is developing 18 new coal-based industrial chains, including large-scale green hydrogen projects, and has seen a 261.3% increase in the added value of the new energy equipment manufacturing industry [5][18]. Group 3: Environmental Quality Improvement - Since 2018, Ordos has completed over 9,800 pollution prevention tasks, maintaining an air quality good rate of around 90% and achieving a 100% compliance rate for drinking water sources [12][21]. - The city has made significant progress in waste management, with the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste increasing from 37.45% in 2020 to 71% currently [12][21]. Group 4: Social and Economic Benefits - The ecological improvements have translated into enhanced living conditions, with Ordos being recognized as a national forest city and a city with high happiness levels, reflecting the integration of ecological and social benefits [22][24]. - The city promotes ecological industries, providing stable employment opportunities and increasing income for local residents, with an annual increase of over 30,000 yuan per person in desertification-affected areas [28][29]. Group 5: Governance and Community Engagement - Ordos is enhancing its ecological governance framework, focusing on community involvement in ecological protection and promoting a culture of environmental awareness through various initiatives [29][30]. - The city has adopted a proactive approach to environmental management, reducing administrative burdens on businesses and improving the efficiency of environmental assessments and approvals [31][34].

Summary of the Conference Call for Hualu Hengsheng Industry Overview - The coal chemical industry is facing challenges of capacity expansion and weak demand, leading to inventory accumulation and price declines, resulting in poor overall profitability [2][5] - New capacity pressure in products like urea is significant, necessitating attention to potential adjustments in macro policies regarding capacity control [2][5] - The acetic acid market benefits from strong downstream PTA and EVA export demand, with future development dependent on changes in overseas demand and external factors like US interest rate cuts [2][8] - The DMF industry operates at low utilization rates, with no new capacity expected, and leading companies are likely to shift production towards more profitable products like dimethylamine [2][9] - The oxalic acid market is performing well, driven by recovery in traditional sectors and increased demand from new energy and electronics industries [2][10] Key Points on Hualu Hengsheng - Hualu Hengsheng, as a leading enterprise, benefits from a diversified downstream product portfolio and may gain from anti-involution policies [2][6] - In the urea sector, if supply is constrained while demand remains strong, the supply-demand relationship will improve [2][6] - The company maintains stable profits despite industry losses, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2][8][16] - Hualu Hengsheng's cash flow is robust, and its valuation is at historical lows, providing potential for excess returns during PPI upturns [3][16] - The company is undergoing upgrades to its synthesis platform and expanding its Jingzhou base, which will enhance its bottom-line profits [3][16][18] Market Dynamics - The coal chemical industry is currently in a phase of poor profitability, with many products struggling to maintain margins [5][15] - Urea production is expected to see an increase of 10 million tons by 2026, while domestic demand is around 70 million tons, indicating significant supply pressure [5] - The acetic acid market is at the bottom of the cycle but has good demand, particularly from exports [8] - The DMF industry is characterized by low operating rates and a lack of new capacity, leading to a micro-profit environment [9] - The oxalic acid market is optimistic, with expected double-digit growth driven by new energy and electronic sectors [10][11] Future Outlook - The coal chemical industry is expected to approach the end of its capacity expansion phase by early 2026, with potential turning points in late 2026 or 2027 [3][12] - Hualu Hengsheng's bottom-line profit is projected to reach approximately 4 billion yuan by the end of 2026 or early 2027, bolstered by ongoing capacity expansions and efficiency improvements [19] - The overall investment value in the coal chemical sector is currently low, but with clear bottom prices and profits, there is potential for recovery as external conditions improve [22]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格震荡偏强运行，主力01合约收盘价1686元/吨，日环比涨0.42%。 | 偏强 | | | 现货市场多数探涨，昨日主流地区市场价格上调10～20元/吨不等，山东、河南地区 | | | | 市场价格分别为1650元/吨、1660元/吨，日环比分别涨10元/吨、20元/吨。基本面来 | | | | 看，尿素供应继续回升，昨日行业日产量19.20万吨，日环比增0.08万吨。价格上涨 | | | | 后对需求形成压制，现货市场成交氛围有所下降。昨日主流地区产销率降至5%~40% | | | | 区间，个别地区仍维持100%以上，区域间分化明显扩大。宏观情绪及商品市场情绪 | | | | 积极给尿素期货市场提供支撑，且煤炭期价走强、国际市场及印度招标方面后续或 | | | | 仍有题材发酵可能。预计短期尿素期货价格仍能保持坚挺运行状态，但由于供需暂 | | | | 无明显扭转，尿素期价上方压制也较多，不建议过分看涨。关注尿 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hami City is transforming its traditional energy structure by leveraging its coal resources to develop a modern coal chemical industry, aiming for high-value utilization and low-carbon development while ensuring energy security under the "dual carbon" goals [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Resource Utilization - Hami City is advancing the "coal-to-chemical" industry layout, transitioning from traditional energy output to modern coal chemical production, creating multiple industrial chains from coal [2][3]. - The city has established various industrial chains, including "coal-methanol-carboxylic acid, formaldehyde, polypropylene" and "coal-coke oil-fuel oil" [2]. - Hami's coal chemical industry added value increased by 17.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Projects - Hami is introducing significant projects, such as the world's first second-generation technology for direct coal liquefaction, expected to produce 4 million tons of oil annually by 2027 [3]. - The city is also developing a 1 million tons per year acetic acid project, which is the first of its kind in Xinjiang [4][5]. - Hami's coal-to-chemical projects are designed to maximize resource utilization and reduce environmental impact through advanced technologies [6][7]. Group 3: Circular Economy and Resource Efficiency - Hami is implementing a zero-discharge wastewater treatment project, achieving 100% recycling of industrial wastewater [6]. - The city is focusing on the circular utilization of coal resources, with projects like the 400,000 tons of ethylene glycol from waste gas, maximizing the use of low-value resources [7]. - The comprehensive energy conversion rate of coal processing in Hami exceeds 85%, indicating high efficiency in resource utilization [8]. Group 4: Coupling Development with Renewable Energy - Hami is exploring the coupling of traditional coal energy with renewable energy, with 67.8% of its installed power capacity coming from renewable sources [12]. - New coal chemical projects must source at least 50% of their electricity from green energy, significantly reducing production costs and carbon emissions [12]. - The integration of green hydrogen into coal chemical processes is being promoted, with companies planning to use wind and solar energy to produce hydrogen for chemical production [13][14]. Group 5: Talent and Research Development - Hami is establishing a research institute focused on the clean and efficient utilization of high-oil coal resources, enhancing its research capabilities [11]. - The city is also developing a vocational school to train skilled workers in the energy and chemical sectors, aligning education with industry needs [11]. - Collaborative efforts with universities and research institutions aim to foster innovation in coal chemical technologies [10].

Core Viewpoint - Hami City is transforming its traditional energy structure by developing a modern coal chemical industry, leveraging its abundant coal resources to achieve high-value utilization and contribute to national energy security under the "dual carbon" goals [2][3]. Group 1: Coal Resource Utilization - Hami City has a coal resource prediction of approximately 570.8 billion tons, accounting for one-third of Xinjiang's and one-eighth of China's total coal resources [2]. - The city is focusing on clean and efficient coal utilization, with the coal chemical industry’s added value increasing by 17.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2][3]. - Hami has established multiple industrial chains, including coal-to-methanol, coal-to-fuel oil, and coal-to-gas, with products such as methanol, liquefied natural gas, and ethylene glycol [3][4]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Projects - Hami is introducing significant projects, such as the first global coal-to-oil project using second-generation technology, expected to produce 4 million tons of oil annually by 2027 [4]. - The city is also developing a 1 million tons per year acetic acid project, which is the first of its kind in Xinjiang, aimed at alleviating the shortage of acetic acid in the northwest region [6]. - Hami is implementing a zero discharge project for industrial wastewater, achieving a 100% recycling rate for wastewater in the industrial park [7]. Group 3: Circular Economy and Resource Efficiency - Hami is promoting a circular economy by maximizing the utilization of by-products from coal processing, such as the innovative use of waste gas to produce ethylene glycol [9]. - The city is also focusing on the efficient use of coal resources, with plans for a project that can process over 10 million tons of coal annually [5][8]. - The comprehensive utilization of coal resources is expected to significantly enhance economic benefits, with potential returns being several times that of raw coal [10]. Group 4: Coupling Development with Renewable Energy - Hami is exploring the integration of traditional energy and renewable energy, with 67.8% of its installed power capacity coming from renewable sources [14]. - New coal chemical projects are required to source at least 50% of their electricity from green energy, which can reduce production costs and carbon emissions [14]. - The city is also developing a green hydrogen industry, utilizing wind and solar energy to produce hydrogen for coal chemical processes [15]. Group 5: Talent and Research Development - Hami is establishing a research institute focused on the clean and efficient utilization of high-oil coal, collaborating with universities and research institutions [12]. - The city is also investing in vocational training for skilled workers in the energy and chemical sectors to meet the industry's growing demands [13]. - Hami aims to become a significant hub for energy technology innovation, fostering collaboration between experts and enterprises [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pattern of stronger inland than ports in the methanol market continues. The port inventory pressure remains high, but after the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, the port basis has slightly bottomed out and rebounded, and the port inventory accumulation rate may slow down. However, the arrival pressure is still large, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan is announced. [2] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production in the inland has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol factories is still low, and overall, the inland is stronger than the ports. The window for ports to flow back to the inland is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA2601 - MA2605). [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, and the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China. [26][31] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - The port total inventory of methanol is 1,550,330 tons (+122,675 tons), with the inventory in Jiangsu ports at 804,000 tons (+44,000 tons), Zhejiang ports at 285,500 tons (+43,200 tons), and Guangdong ports at 274,000 tons (+7,000 tons). The downstream MTO开工率 is 81.57% (-3.15%). The inland factory inventory is 342,560 tons (-4,523 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 221,300 tons (-3,700 tons). [1][2] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report lists various regional price differences, such as the difference between Lubei and Northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, etc. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 23 yuan/ton (+0), and the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 385 yuan/ton (-8). [2] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether. [52][56] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: None. - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when it is low. - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high. [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for Yulin to leverage its unique resource advantages to achieve multi-energy integration and extend the industrial chain, particularly in the fine chemical industry, to build a distinctive energy strategic system [2][3]. Industry Development - Yulin is recognized as a national-level energy and chemical base, being a significant production hub for methanol, coal-to-olefins, and polyvinyl chloride, with leading production capacities [2]. - The region has established a modern coal chemical industry system comprising four trillion-level and eight hundred-billion-level projects, supported by fine chemical initiatives [2]. Resource Utilization - Yulin possesses a comprehensive resource base, including coal, oil, gas, and salt, which should be utilized to promote the coupling of coal chemical and traditional petrochemical industries, as well as the integration of renewable and fossil energy [3]. - The collaboration between Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics and China Shenhua Coal to Oil Chemical Co. has led to the development of a new technology for producing 1,2-dichloroethane from ethylene glycol and methane chlorides, addressing high energy consumption and emissions issues associated with traditional methods [3]. Environmental Impact - The introduction of green hydrogen in coal-to-olefins processes can replace traditional water-gas shift reactions, reducing CO2 emissions by 70% [4]. - The oxygen produced from water electrolysis can be utilized in coal gasification processes, contributing to a zero-carbon or even negative carbon footprint for coal chemical production [4]. Innovation and Collaboration - The establishment of a deep integration platform for production, education, research, and application in fine chemicals is recommended to focus on high-end fine chemical products and functional materials [4].

Summary of the Conference Call for China Coal Energy Industry Overview - The coal market experienced fluctuations in August, with thermal coal prices at ports reaching 697 RMB/ton, a month-on-month increase of 6.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 17.4% [2][5] - The coking coal market showed a decline, with Shanxi low-sulfur coking coal prices at 1,471 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton (2% decrease) month-on-month and down 10% year-on-year [2][6] - The urea market remained weak, with average prices around 1,750 RMB/ton, a 14% year-on-year decline [2][7] - Polyolefin prices averaged about 7,500 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 5% year-on-year, with expected price ranges for polyethylene and polypropylene in September [2][8] Company Performance - For the first eight months of the year, China Coal Energy produced 89.99 million tons of commercial coal, a decrease of 420,000 tons year-on-year, while sales were 170 million tons, down 10.2 million tons year-on-year [3] - The company’s self-produced coal sales increased by 1.71 million tons, indicating a shift from trade and agency coal [3] - Urea production increased by 24.5% year-on-year to 1.415 million tons, while methanol production rose by 22.2% to 1.317 million tons [3] - The company achieved a profit increase of approximately 2.1 billion RMB in the first half of the year through cost reduction measures [2][9] Market Outlook - The thermal coal market is expected to remain weak in September, with prices projected to fluctuate between 665-695 RMB/ton due to reduced demand from power plants and increased willingness from traders to sell [2][5] - The coking coal market is anticipated to stabilize, with prices for Shanxi low-sulfur coking coal expected between 1,300-1,470 RMB/ton [2][6] - The urea market is expected to continue its weak trend, with prices projected between 1,650-1,700 RMB/ton [2][8] - Polyolefin prices are expected to stabilize, with polyethylene and polypropylene prices projected within specified ranges [2][8] Cost Management - The company has implemented various cost reduction measures, resulting in stable costs in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, with expectations for annual costs to be lower than the previous year [9][20] - The company’s long-term contract fulfillment rate remains high, ensuring business stability and customer relationships [10][11] Future Projections - The company maintains an optimistic outlook on thermal coal prices, expecting them to fluctuate around a benchmark price of 675 RMB/ton, with potential highs exceeding 700 RMB [4][13] - The company’s coal chemical business is expected to remain profitable, with the resumption of operations in the second half of the year anticipated to offset losses incurred during maintenance [22] Additional Insights - The company is actively monitoring regulatory impacts from the Energy Bureau's recent directives, which are expected to have a limited effect on operations [16][17] - New mining projects, Li Bi and Wei Zi Gou, are on track for trial production in the second half of 2026 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The development of modern coal chemical industry involves multiple factors and variables, requiring a comprehensive approach to balance production and quality, stock and increment, and variables and total amounts [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Security Account - China's energy resource endowment features "rich coal, poor oil, and scarce gas," indicating that coal will remain a cornerstone in the short term [1]. - Regions with coal resource advantages, such as Xinjiang, should focus on their energy supply responsibilities and promote the release of advanced coal production capacity [1]. - A scientific approach to the ratio of fuel coal to raw material coal is essential for orderly advancement of high-quality industrial development [1]. Group 2: Ecological and Environmental Protection Account - The coal chemical industry is energy-intensive, making the exploration and promotion of clean and efficient coal utilization crucial for improving resource development efficiency and reducing energy consumption [1]. - Hami is focusing on the latest technologies to advance the modern coal chemical industry towards high-end, diversified, and low-carbon development, integrating with the new energy sector to enhance the industry's "green content" [1]. Group 3: Technological Investment Account - Technological innovation is identified as a "key variable" and the "largest increment" for promoting high-quality industrial development [2]. - The industry should invest in advanced technologies and apply them practically to enhance quality and efficiency [2]. - Timely integration of technological variables into existing projects is necessary to guide enterprises in implementing new technology upgrades [2]. Group 4: Talent Development Account - There is a significant talent gap in the coal chemical industry, necessitating a focus on skills training and optimizing vocational education supply [2]. - Strengthening cooperation between schools and enterprises is essential for enhancing the training of required skilled personnel [2]. - Hami has established the Xinjiang Energy Chemical Technical School, offering targeted programs in coal chemical disciplines to meet current and future industry demands [2].

Core Viewpoint - Hami City is transforming its traditional energy structure by leveraging its abundant coal resources to develop a modern coal chemical industry, aiming for high-value utilization and low-carbon development while ensuring energy security under the "dual carbon" goals [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Resource Utilization - Hami City is focusing on the clean and efficient utilization of coal, promoting the development of modern coal chemical industries, and achieving a transformation from coal to high-value products like oil and gas [1][2]. - The predicted coal resource in Hami is approximately 570.8 billion tons, accounting for one-third of Xinjiang's and one-eighth of China's total coal resources [1]. - The coal chemical industry in Hami saw a year-on-year increase of 17.9% in added value in the first half of this year [1]. Group 2: Industrial Chain Development - Hami has established multiple industrial chains, including "coal-methanol-carboxylic acids, formaldehyde, polypropylene" and "coal-coke oil-fuel oil" [2]. - The city is constructing a framework for coal-based chemicals and new materials, with products including methanol, liquefied natural gas, and ethylene glycol [2]. Group 3: Technological Innovation and Projects - Hami is introducing significant projects, such as a coal-to-oil project by the State Energy Investment Group, which will produce 4 million tons of oil annually using second-generation technology [3]. - The first phase of a 1 million tons per year acetic acid project has entered trial production, addressing the shortage of acetic acid in the northwest region [4]. Group 4: Resource Recycling and Environmental Impact - Hami is implementing a zero-discharge project for industrial wastewater, achieving a 100% recycling rate [5]. - The city is also maximizing the utilization of low-value by-products, such as utilizing waste gas from coal processing to produce ethylene glycol [6]. Group 5: Coupling Development with Renewable Energy - Hami is exploring the coupling of traditional energy and renewable energy, with 67.8% of its installed power capacity coming from renewable sources [11]. - New projects require that at least 50% of the electricity supply comes from green energy, which can reduce production costs and carbon emissions significantly [11]. Group 6: Talent and Skill Development - Hami is establishing educational institutions focused on energy and chemical engineering to cultivate skilled talent for the coal chemical industry [10]. - The city is also collaborating with universities and research institutions to enhance research and development capabilities in clean and efficient coal utilization technologies [9].