1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The year 2026 is expected to be in the bottom - grinding stage of the downward cycle, and the industry needs thorough capacity clearance to enter the upward cycle [1][12][55] - Supply in 2026 will be high in the first half and low in the second half, with significant pressure in the first quarter. The high average weight of live pigs and concentrated pre - holiday slaughtering will suppress price increases during the peak season [2][54][56] - In 2026, as the "14th Five - Year Plan" begins, the warming macro - economy and improved pork cost - effectiveness will drive a moderate increase in pork demand, but the increase is restricted by the macro - economic recovery and consumer confidence [2][40][56] - Feed costs will continue to fluctuate at a low level in 2026, and the industry will continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, with the expected full cost dropping to around 12 yuan/kg [3][49][56] - Policies will continue to guide the orderly exit of production capacity and stabilize prices. If the pig price drops sharply below 5:1 in 2026, policy support measures such as state reserves will be implemented [3][51][57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the pig market price was under pressure due to over - supply. The national live pig slaughter price fluctuated between 10.81 yuan/kg and 16.23 yuan/kg, and the futures showed a pattern of limited rebound and downward oscillation [7] - From January to February, the price fluctuated and declined. After the Spring Festival in February, the spot price quickly dropped to 14.5 yuan/kg, and then stopped falling and oscillated. The futures were relatively strong [7] - From March to June, the price fluctuated within a narrow range. After the festivals in April, the price decreased due to strong supply and weak demand. In June, it stopped falling and rebounded [8] - From July to December, the price trended downward. In September, the pig - grain ratio fell below 6:1. On December 5, the price dropped to 11.1 yuan/ton, a 31.6% decline from the beginning - of - year high [9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pig Cycle - Since 2006, China has experienced about four complete pig cycles. The fifth cycle lasted about 23 months. If 2024 March is the starting point of a new cycle, as of November 2025, the decline stage has reached 15 months [12] - Compared with the fifth cycle, the current cycle's loss time and amplitude in the breeding sector are still insufficient. The industry needs more losses to drive thorough capacity clearance, and 2026 is expected to be in the bottom - grinding stage of the downward cycle [12][55] 3.2.2 Supply Side - **Accelerated culling of sows but still above the normal level**: Before September 2025, the culling of sows was slow. After September, under policy pressure and losses, the culling accelerated. As of October, the official sow inventory was 3990 million, still 2.31% above the normal level [17][19] - **Optimized sow inventory structure and improved production performance**: The proportion of binary sows has increased to 95%. In 2025, the industry's production performance continued to improve. The increase in production performance will offset some of the impact of capacity culling and increase potential supply in 2026 [25][26] - **Increasing number of piglets and high supply pressure in Q1 2026**: Since February 2025, the number of new - born piglets has increased. Based on piglet and feed data, the supply pressure from December 2025 to Q1 2026 is high [30] - **Higher average slaughter weight and short - term pressure to be released**: In 2025, the influence of secondary fattening decreased. The high average weight of live pigs reflects high supply pressure. Before the Spring Festival, the concentrated slaughter of large - scale farms and big pigs may form a "double pressure" [33][34] 3.2.3 Demand Side - **Steady growth in demand driven by macro - economic recovery and cost - effectiveness**: In 2025, the macro - economy had a weak recovery, consumer confidence was low, and pig demand was weak. In 2026, the improvement of the macro - economy and the cost - effectiveness of pork will drive the growth of pork consumption, but the increase is restricted by the macro - economic recovery and consumer confidence [40][41][56] - **Seasonal demand still exists but with milder fluctuations**: In 2025, the seasonal demand boost was short - lived and weak. In 2026, the Spring Festival is postponed, and the change in the industrial pattern will further weaken the peak - season characteristics [42] - **High frozen - product inventory and limited support for consumption**: The current high frozen - product inventory will suppress supply before and after the peak season [2][56] 3.2.4 Cost Side - In 2025, the feed price was low, and the average full cost of listed companies in September/October dropped to 12.69 yuan/kg [49] - In 2026, the feed cost will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the industry is expected to reduce the full cost to around 12 yuan/kg [50][56] 3.2.5 Policy Side - In 2025, multi - dimensional anti - involution policies were introduced to control production capacity, weight, secondary fattening, and strengthen environmental protection, aiming to guide the industry towards high - quality development [51][52] - The policy requires the reduction of sow inventory to below 3900 million by the end of January 2026, which can control the supply of live pigs in 2026 from the source [51] - In the future, policies will continue to guide the orderly exit of production capacity and stabilize prices. If the pig price drops sharply below 5:1 in 2026, policy support such as state reserves will be provided [52][57] 3.3 Outlook - Before the first half of 2026, supply will remain high, and the price during the peak season is not optimistic. The price in the first half of the year will be under pressure, and it may be relatively strong in the second half, but caution is needed due to cost reduction [57] - In terms of strategies, under supply pressure, short - term contracts should be shorted on rebounds, and long - term contracts should be cautiously bullish. The industry can hedge on rallies before effective capacity reduction [57]

基本面疲软的利空冲击下，焦煤焦炭12月8日大幅下挫。截至收盘时，焦煤下跌6.14%，焦炭收跌5.79%，分居当日跌幅排行前两位。近期双焦供强需弱的基 本面格局明显：一方面，从需求端看，Mysteel的最新数据显示，上周国内247家钢厂日均铁水产量环比续降2.38万吨至232.3万吨，刷新8个月来新低，这对 双焦需求构成明显利空。另一方面，在供应端，蒙煤通关持续偏高，监管区库存累积至接近300万吨的水平，焦煤供应压力趋增。此外，焦煤主力合约换月 至2605合约后，年末煤矿因安全生产而受限的影响弱化，弱势特征更加明显，盘中期价触及该合约自今年7月下旬以来的新低。不过，分析机构也提示，目 前焦煤2605合约估值偏低，需警惕宏观情绪变化带来的预期差。 新华财经北京12月8日电（吴郑思、张瑶） 国内商品期货市场周一（12月8日）整体温和波动，品种分化明显，活跃商品收盘跌多涨少。截至收盘时，中证 商品期货价格指数收报1510.25点，较前一交易日上涨0.78点，涨幅0.05%；中证商品期货指数收报2088.09点，较前一交易日上涨1.09点，涨幅0.05%。 能源金属8日多数震荡走弱，尤其是多晶硅在交易所公告新增注册品牌 ...

行 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 08 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价弱势运行，11 月第三方能繁延续去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价维持弱势，11 月第三方能繁延续去化。（1）月初缩 量拉涨有限，本周猪价窄幅回调。本月初集团场缩量拉涨猪价，但市场接 受度有限，散户大猪顺势出栏，供应压力持续，供大于求格局持续。12 月 5 日猪价 11.19 元/公斤，周环比-0.01 元/公斤。（2）本周屠宰量继续增长。 受降温天气带动，四川地区腌腊、灌肠活动陆续启动，对生猪屠宰量形成 支撑。本周样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 17.66 万头，周环比+1.83%。（3） 本周生猪出栏均重继续增长。本周集团出栏节奏收窄后放量，集团出栏均 重小幅增加；散户受制于资金和疫情影响，北方多地散户大猪出栏积极性 偏强，散户出栏均重增幅明显。截至 12 月 4 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 129.82 公斤，周环比+0.60 公斤。展望后市，养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国能繁 母猪存栏量降 ...

证券代码：603717 证券简称：天域生物 公告编号：2025-111 2025 年 11 月，公司销售生猪 1.76 万头，销售收入 2,432.36 万元，环比变动 分别为-61.57%、-55.80%，同比变动分别为-22.00%、-45.15%。 2025 年 1-11 月，公司累计销售生猪 33.96 万头，同比上升 21.26%；累计销 售收入 47,452.09 万元，同比下降 8.75%。 2025 年 11 月末，公司生猪存栏 18.80 万头，同比上升 3.45%，环比上升 9.83%。 注：因四舍五入，以上数据可能存在尾差。 1 天域生物科技股份有限公司 2025 年 11 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 天域生物科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 11 月养殖业 务主要经营数据公告如下： 一、2025 年 11 月养殖行业主要经营数据 1、上述经营数据均未经审计，与定期报告披露的数据之间可能存在差异， 因此仅作为阶段性数据供投资者参考。 2 ...

证券代码：603363 证券简称：傲农生物 公告编号：2025-113 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司 2025 年 11 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 主要产品 | 销售量 | 库存量 | 销售量同比 增减（%） | 库存量同比 增减（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | 15.77 | 69.97 | +72.21 | +33.94 | 2025 年 11 月，公司生猪销售量 15.77 万头，同比增加 72.21%，较 2025 年 10 月减少 17.08%。 2025 年 11 月末，公司生猪存栏 69.97 万头，同比增加 33.94%，较 2025 年 10 月末增加 7.58%，较 2024 年 12 月末增加 36.41%。 公司积极推动生猪养殖产能优化工作，合理调整养殖布局、规模与品种结构， 后续将继续坚持"稳字当头、持续降本"的策略，集中资源发展优势产能，务实 经营发展目标，切实推进降本工作。 二、其他说 ...

公司积极推动生猪养殖产能优化工作，合理调整养殖布局、规模与品种结构，后续将继续坚持"稳字当 头、持续降本"的策略，集中资源发展优势产能，务实经营发展目标，切实推进降本工作。 格隆汇12月8日丨傲农生物（维权）(603363.SH)公布，2025年11月，公司生猪销售量15.77万头，同比增 加72.21%，较2025年10月减少17.08%。2025年11月末，公司生猪存栏69.97万头，同比增加33.94%，较 2025年10月末增加7.58%，较2024年12月末增加36.41%。 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 08 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价弱势运行，11 月第三方能繁延续去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价维持弱势，11 月第三方能繁延续去化。（1）月初缩 量拉涨有限，本周猪价窄幅回调。本月初集团场缩量拉涨猪价，但市场接 受度有限，散户大猪顺势出栏，供应压力持续，供大于求格局持续。12 月 5 日猪价 11.19 元/公斤，周环比-0.01 元/公斤。（2）本周屠宰量继续增长。 受降温天气带动，四川地区腌腊、灌肠活动陆续启动，对生猪屠宰量形成 支撑。本周样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 17.66 万头，周环比+1.83%。（3） 本周生猪出栏均重继续增长。本周集团出栏节奏收窄后放量，集团出栏均 重小幅增加；散户受制于资金和疫情影响，北方多地散户大猪出栏积极性 偏强，散户出栏均重增幅明显。截至 12 月 4 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 129.82 公斤，周环比+0.60 公斤。展望后市，养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国能繁 母猪存栏量降至 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 2025年12月08日 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月投资策略 优于大市 牧业大周期反转预计在即，核心推荐港股奶牛养殖标的 月度重点推荐组合：优然牧业（牧业大周期受益龙头），现代牧业（国内牧 业龙头企业）、牧原股份（生猪养殖龙头）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国 内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。2）生猪：头部 企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下， 龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。3）宠物：宠物作为新消费优质 赛道，长期景气受益人口趋势，且国内自主品牌正快速崛起，头部宠食标的 中期业绩增长确定性仍较强。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明 确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）禽：供 给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有 望实现更高现金流分红回报。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：11 月末生猪 11.25 元/公斤，月环比-10%，7kg 仔猪价格约 216 元/头，月环比+18%。2）禽：11 月末白鸡毛鸡价格 7.10 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 2025年12月08日 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月投资策略 优于大市 牧业大周期反转预计在即，核心推荐港股奶牛养殖标的 月度重点推荐组合：优然牧业（牧业大周期受益龙头），现代牧业（国内牧 业龙头企业）、牧原股份（生猪养殖龙头）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国 内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。2）生猪：头部 企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下， 龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。3）宠物：宠物作为新消费优质 赛道，长期景气受益人口趋势，且国内自主品牌正快速崛起，头部宠食标的 中期业绩增长确定性仍较强。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明 确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）禽：供 给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有 望实现更高现金流分红回报。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：11 月末生猪 11.25 元/公斤，月环比-10%，7kg 仔猪价格约 216 元/头，月环比+18%。2）禽：11 月末白鸡毛鸡价格 7.10 ...

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from the livestock cycle recovery [1][3] - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, suggesting a strong recovery in the performance of livestock companies [1][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is projected to experience a major turnaround, with a focus on dairy farming stocks such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming [1][14] - The report indicates that the domestic beef and milk markets are likely to see a price rebound, driven by a reduction in production capacity and improved demand dynamics [1][14] - The anticipated "meat-milk resonance" is expected to enhance profitability for dairy farming companies, with significant earnings recovery potential [1][14] Swine Sector - The swine sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices, with leading companies like Huazhong and Muyuan Foods positioned to benefit from valuation corrections [1][14] - The report notes that the cash flow of leading swine companies is improving, which may lead to higher dividend payouts in the future [1][15] - The current market conditions suggest that the swine industry is stabilizing, with a focus on maintaining reasonable breeding levels [22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery to support price stabilization [24] - The report highlights that the white-feathered chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to improve as the consumption season approaches [24] - Leading poultry companies are anticipated to maintain strong profitability amid changing supply dynamics [24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, with domestic brands gaining traction and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for local pet food brands to capture market share, particularly in the high-end segment [1][16] - The performance of leading pet food companies is projected to remain strong, driven by product upgrades and direct sales strategies [20] Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages [1][14] - The report indicates that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong cost support for livestock producers [1][14] - The anticipated tightening of supply-demand balance in the feed market is expected to lead to gradual price recovery [1][14] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, down 10% month-on-month, while the price of 7kg piglets increased by 18% [2][22] - The report also highlights that corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential bottoming out in the market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is showing resilience, with the SW Agricultural Index outperforming the broader market [2][22]