Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [6] Core Views - In July, the decline in pulp and paper prices slowed, with expectations for a rebound in pulp prices and stabilization in white paper prices, while black paper prices continued to rise [2] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices for cultural paper have been declining, with the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper at 5094 CNY/ton, down 1.11% month-on-month and 9.34% year-on-year [10][23] - Supply and demand remain imbalanced, with production recovering but overall demand still weak [13][10] - Profitability is stable as both prices and costs are declining, with the average theoretical gross margin at 1.59% [23] White Cardboard - Prices continue to decline due to weak seasonal demand, with the average market price for 250-400g white cardboard at 4036 CNY/ton, down 1.25% month-on-month and 9.02% year-on-year [24] - The supply-demand gap is expected to widen, putting further pressure on prices [27] - Profit margins are decreasing as the price drop exceeds the cost drop, with gross margins declining [39] Boxboard - Prices for boxboard have shown mixed trends, with the average price at 3449 CNY/ton, down 1.49% month-on-month [42] - Demand is expected to recover in August, alleviating some supply pressure [46] - Profitability remains low as the price drop is greater than the cost drop [11] Waste Paper - The supply of waste paper is tight, leading to a gradual increase in prices [12] Wood Chips - Import volumes have increased month-on-month, with overall demand stabilizing [14] Wood Pulp - External prices are stabilizing, but the supply-demand imbalance persists, with average prices for imported hardwood pulp at 490 USD/ton [15][6]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Province has introduced systematic judicial guarantees for carbon emission quota pledge financing, marking a significant step in promoting green finance and carbon asset monetization [1][5]. Group 1: Policy and Framework - The joint issuance of the "Opinions" by the Guangdong Provincial High Court, the Provincial Ecological Environment Department, and the People's Bank of China Guangdong Branch provides a structured legal framework for carbon emission quota pledge financing [1][5]. - The "Opinions" include 13 specific regulations addressing issues such as dispute resolution, emission reduction incentives, assessment supervision, and guarantee innovation, effectively overcoming key bottlenecks in the carbon asset financialization process [3][6]. Group 2: Market Impact and Financial Innovation - The introduction of the "Opinions" is expected to boost confidence among emission control enterprises and financial institutions in participating in carbon emission quota pledge financing [3][4]. - The policy encourages financial institutions to explore diversified financing scenarios, including annual pre-allocated quota guarantee financing, carbon sink future revenue rights pledge, and carbon asset securitization products [3][4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Current Developments - Guangdong has been developing carbon emission quota pledge financing for several years, with 34 transactions completed by July 2025, involving 849.97 million tons of pledged carbon emission rights and a total financing amount of 1.14 million yuan [3]. - The first carbon asset securitization pilot case in Guangdong was launched in July 2024, indicating a growing trend in carbon asset financing [4]. Group 4: Legal and Risk Management - The "Opinions" clarify that carbon emission quotas are legitimate pledge objects, establishing legal effectiveness upon registration on provincial trading platforms [6]. - A dual registration model combining the People's Bank of China movable property financing unified registration system and provincial trading platforms is introduced to mitigate asset transfer risks [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The short - term external market is strong, but the continuous upward space of sugar price is limited. It is expected to maintain range - bound. In China, the inventory pressure is low in July, but the concentrated arrival of third - quarter shipments and increased imports in the second half of the year will bring pressure to domestic sugar sales. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize after a sharp correction [3]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals of pulp and its downstream have changed little. The import volume in July was high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is difficult to rebound. The price increase is difficult to be transmitted, but the price is less likely to return to the June low [5]. - **Cotton**: The external market may continue to bottom - hunting, and the domestic market is a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The price may continue to fluctuate and sort out in the short term [7]. - **Apples**: The current focus is on the end of the old season and the realization of the new season. The initial production estimate cannot provide a trend guide. The price of early - maturing apples has risen, but the sustainability needs to be tracked. The overall price of the apple 10 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [8]. - **Jujubes**: The inventory is being depleted, and the spot price is running strongly. The 2601 contract is recommended for long - holding, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on production [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Apples**: Temporarily wait and see. The support range is 7400 - 7500, and the pressure range is 8300 - 8400 [18]. - **Jujubes**: Hold long positions. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [18]. - **Sugar**: Try to go long when it回调 to the lower edge of the range. The support range is 5500 - 5530, and the pressure range is 5670 - 5700 [18]. - **Pulp**: Short on rallies. The support range is 5100 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [18]. - **Cotton**: Temporarily wait and see. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In June 2025, the export volume decreased. The inventory in cold storage decreased. There are different estimates of production, with a slight increase or decrease [19]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong is stable. The shipment volume is general. The price of early - maturing apples varies greatly. The arrival at the wholesale market is small, and the price is stable [20][21]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of August 8, the inventory decreased. The arrival at the sales area increased, and the spot price was strong. Attention should be paid to terminal consumption and shipment sustainability [22]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market The domestic spot price is stable, and the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.54 cents/pound. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processing is high [24]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The transaction of imported bleached softwood pulp is light. The price increase is not accepted by buyers. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has increased, and two companies plan to reduce production [27]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market - Vietnam's cotton textile and clothing production data from January to July 2025 shows an increase in textile production and a decrease in clothing production. - Brazil's cotton picking progress is advancing, but lags behind last year. - Australia's cotton export volume increased significantly in June. - Pakistan's cotton imports increased significantly from July 2024 to June 2025. - Thailand's cotton imports increased in June. - Egypt's cotton net signing and shipment volume increased in the week ending August 9 [28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 8178 | 51 | 0.63% | | Jujube 2509 | 10385 | - 145 | - 1.38% | | Sugar 2509 | 5706 | 28 | 0.49% | | Pulp 2509 | 5216 | 14 | 0.27% | | Cotton 2601 | 13980 | 100 | 0.72% | [30] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | 0.15 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5960 | 0 | - 540 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5850 | 0 | - 250 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15177 | 16 | 407 | [33] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only references to relevant figures [44][45][49]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 193 | - 5 | 84 | Fluctuate repeatedly | Wait and see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 1165 | - 1155 | - 580 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | Sugar | 9 - 1 | 98 | - 7 | - 235 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 70 | 20 | 105 | Range - bound | Temporarily wait and see | [51] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only references to relevant figures [58][60][65]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 9214 | 0 | - 970 | | Sugar | 17853 | - 387 | 1901 | | Pulp | 253327 | 1872 | - 239490 | | Cotton | 8087 | - 85 | - 2309 | [78] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific numerical analysis provided, only references to relevant figures [80][82][83].

商报记者徐歆婷 卷烟纸、汉堡包装纸、纸吸管、奢侈品包装纸……这些生活中常见的特种纸制品，很可能都来自"华 丰"这个百年品牌。作为杭实集团旗下企业，华丰集团的前身是创立于1922年的华丰造纸厂——浙江省 第一家机械造纸企业。这家百年老字号不仅是国内卷烟纸生产的先驱，更长期稳居行业第一梯队。 华丰集团进军高端市场的核心竞争力，源自对技术创新的极致追求。 走进湖州安吉的华丰集团生产车间，一套精密复杂的造纸工艺正在高效运转：水力分解、皱化、成分混 合、木浆匀整、自然脱水、挤压……十余个步骤的精密控制，得以造就一张高端特种纸。 车间工作人员说，根据用纸需求的不同，他们会将针叶材、阔叶材等不同成分的木浆，按比例精心调配 混合。如果生产卷烟纸，工作人员会在制作过程中给纸张涂上硝液。"硝液是助燃剂，有了这个试剂， 香烟才会燃烧，燃烧进度的快慢，需要科研人员反复调试把握时间。"工作人员介绍。 深耕主业 破壁立新 在2024年行业整体承压的大环境下，华丰集团逆势上扬，交出了一份亮眼的成绩单：全年营收突破30亿 元，净利润超3000万元，实现业绩大幅增长。更令人瞩目的是，2025年企业卷烟纸销量预计将突破1.6 万吨，有望创下历史 ...

Group 1 - Approximately one-third of large Japanese companies expect the Japanese economy to continue growing, a significant decrease from 71% in January [1] - 56% of surveyed companies anticipate zero growth, while 11% expect a moderate contraction [1] - 68% of the surveyed Japanese companies express concern or some concern regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs [3] Group 2 - The Japanese government revised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7%, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [4] - Major Japanese automakers, including Toyota and Honda, are expected to see a combined operating profit reduction of approximately 2.67 trillion yen (about 18.1 billion USD) this fiscal year due to U.S. tariffs [5] - The U.S. has implemented tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various trade partners, with Japan facing a tariff rate of 15% [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $82 million with a margin of 10%, reflecting a planned maintenance outage cost of nearly $17 million, the largest in recent history [6][10] - Adjusted operating earnings were $0.37 per share, while free cash flow was negative $2 million due to lower adjusted EBITDA and slightly higher capital spending [6][7] - The company returned nearly $40 million to shareholders, including $18 million in dividends and $20 million in share repurchases [5][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Price and mix contributed positively by $12 million, driven by better mix in North America and Latin America, despite lower export sales [8] - Volume decreased by $9 million, primarily in North America, with operational challenges impacting production levels [9] - Operational performance improved, leading to favorable costs of $23 million, particularly in North America and Europe [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, demand decreased by 8% year over year, with industry capacity reduced by 7% due to machine closures [11] - Latin America saw a 2% decline in demand overall, with Brazil experiencing a 6% increase due to strong publishing demand [12] - North America reported stable apparent demand year over year, driven by a nearly 40% increase in imports [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on uncoated free sheet paper, viewing it as a long-term opportunity and investing in competitive advantages [26][27] - Capital allocation strategy emphasizes maintaining a strong financial position, reinvesting in high-return projects, and returning cash to shareholders [18][20] - Major capital spending plans include $145 million in strategic projects at the Eastover mill, expected to generate significant incremental EBITDA [21][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenging industry conditions but expressed confidence in the company's financial position and ability to navigate cycles [68] - The outlook for the third quarter includes expected adjusted EBITDA of $145 million to $165 million, with improved operational performance anticipated [15][16] - Management is closely monitoring tariff situations and their impact on trade flows and pricing strategies [14][60] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its debt by about half, with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.3 times, providing financial flexibility [20] - Green energy credits received in Q2 amounted to $8 million and are expected to recur throughout the year [55][57] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for South America in Q3 and combined EBITDA expectations - Management expects continued improvement in Latin America due to seasonally increasing shipments and no planned outages [33] - Combined earnings for North and South America may be slightly less than last year due to weakness in other Latin American markets [35] Question: Update on Europe’s market conditions - Europe faces difficult market conditions driven by tariff impacts and weak demand, with a focus on improving competitive cost positions [39][40] Question: Trends in trade flows and pricing - Significant increases in imports into North America have created more supply, impacting pricing strategies [44][60] - The company has seen pressure on pricing due to increased imports and competitive behavior from other producers [62]

Core Viewpoint - Sunshine Paper Holdings (02002) anticipates a decline in profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ending June 30, 2025, by approximately 55% to 65% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group Performance - The expected performance downturn is primarily attributed to a decrease in paper product prices, leading to a decline in revenue and gross profit [1] - A reduction in value-added tax has resulted in a decrease in unconditional government subsidies [1] - The sluggish real estate market in China has exacerbated operating losses for Sunshine Prince (Shouguang) Specialty Paper Co., Ltd., which will transition from an associate to a wholly-owned subsidiary by June 30, 2025 [1] - There are also fair value losses on financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss [1] Financial Outlook - Despite the anticipated decline in profit, the board believes that the overall financial condition and operations of the group remain sound and stable [1] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for long-term growth and development [1]

Group 1 - The company Sunshine Paper (02002) anticipates a decline in profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 55% to 65% for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to a decrease in paper product prices, leading to reduced revenue and gross profit [1] - The company also faces challenges due to a downturn in the Chinese real estate market, which has exacerbated losses at its subsidiary, Sunshine Prince (Shouguang) Specialty Paper Co., Ltd [1] Group 2 - The company reports a decrease in unconditional government subsidies due to a reduction in value-added tax [1] - Despite the challenges, the board believes that the overall financial condition and operations of the company remain stable and robust [1] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for its long-term growth and development [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling over 200 points, closing below 25,000 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 1.56% [1] - Major technology stocks saw a broad decline, with Alibaba down 2.4% and JD.com down 1.44% [2] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector faced significant losses, with SMIC dropping over 8%, marking the worst performance in the sector [4] - Gaming stocks also fell sharply, with Wynn Macau down over 7% and MGM China down over 6% [6] - The paper industry saw declines, with Chenming Paper down over 8% [7] - Innovative drug stocks continued to decline, with Hutchison China MediTech down over 15% and Zai Lab down over 10% [8] Positive Performances - Gold stocks led gains in the metals sector, with Zhaojin Mining and Lingbao Gold both rising over 3% [3][10] - Heavy machinery stocks showed resilience, with Zhonglian Heavy Industry rising nearly 6% [3] - Cement stocks performed well, with Shanshui Cement up over 6% [9] - Wind power stocks also saw increases, with Goldwind Technology rising over 10% [11] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 6.271 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 3.28 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 2.992 billion HKD [12] Future Outlook - Huatai Securities suggests that the recent pullback in the Hong Kong market is due to adjustments in expectations, but the medium-term liquidity remains accommodative. They recommend focusing on sectors with improving conditions and low valuations, particularly in technology [13]

Major Events - Silver Noble Pharmaceuticals-B (02591) is set to conduct an IPO from August 7 to August 12, with an expected listing date of August 15 [1] - Boan Biotechnology (06955) plans to place 48 million shares at a discount of approximately 8.78%, aiming to raise about HKD 780 million [1] - Derin Holdings (01709) intends to raise HKD 653.3 million, focusing on the development of blockchain, RWA, and virtual asset businesses [1] - Fuhong Hanlin (02696) received FDA approval to initiate a Phase 1 clinical trial for HLX43, a PD-L1 targeted antibody-drug conjugate for thymic cancer treatment [1] - China Biopharmaceuticals (01177) obtained NMPA approval for the Phase II clinical trial application of LM-24C5, a dual-target antibody [1] Financial Reports - China Mobile (00941) reported a mid-year profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 84.235 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.03% [1] - Manulife Financial-S (00945) announced a core profit of CAD 1.7 billion for the second quarter [1] - Swire Properties (01972) reported a mid-year profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 4.42 billion, a year-on-year growth of 15% [1] - Hutchison Whampoa (00013) disclosed a mid-year net income of USD 455 million, a significant increase of 1663.32% year-on-year [1] - MGM China (02282) reported a mid-year net profit of HKD 2.383 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.25% [1] - SMIC (00981) announced a second-quarter profit of USD 132 million, with third-quarter revenue guidance indicating a sequential growth of 5% to 7% [1] - Zai Lab (09688) reported a 15.35% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the first half, reaching approximately USD 216 million [1] - Innovent Biologics (01801) achieved over RMB 5.2 billion in total product revenue for the first half, maintaining a strong growth rate of over 35% year-on-year [1] - Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) reported a mid-year profit attributable to shareholders of USD 25.6 million, a year-on-year decrease of 56% [1] - Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing (02314) announced a mid-year profit of HKD 811 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, with an interim dividend of HKD 0.066 per share [1] - Swire Group reported a mid-year profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 815 million, a year-on-year decrease of 79% [1] - Lee & Man Chemical Company (00746) reported a 36% increase in profit to HKD 327 million, with an interim dividend of HKD 0.195 per share [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) announced a second-quarter profit of USD 7.952 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [1] - Wheelock Properties (01997) reported a mid-year loss attributable to shareholders of HKD 2.406 billion, a year-on-year increase of 128.71%, with the first interim dividend of HKD 0.066 per share [1] - Decon Agriculture (02419) issued a profit warning, expecting mid-term biological asset fair value adjustments to yield profits between RMB 1.1 billion and 1.4 billion [1] - Mongolian Mining (00975) issued a profit warning, anticipating a net loss of approximately USD 15 million to 25 million for the first half, marking a shift from profit to loss year-on-year [1] - Dongfeng Motor Group (00489) issued a profit warning, expecting a mid-term net profit decline of 90% to 95% [1]