文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 本周全球股票市场大幅下跌。 不过本周下来，全球股票市场仍然下跌超2%。 亚太、欧洲市场的波动更大一些。 A股港股、韩股、日股、等，本周波动超4%。 港股科技、恒生科技也在周五收盘后，回到了低估。 除了股票市场出现波动，其他资产大类也波动比较大： ·黄金从高点回调7-8%。原油等商品价格下跌更多。 ·虚拟货币一天下跌9%。 货币、短债本身波动比较小，不太受流动性危机的影响。 其他风险资产，本周波动都比较大。 周一到周四，全球股票市场下跌近3%， 周五晚上全球股票市场出现了反弹。 2. 通常不同资产大类不会同涨同跌。 市场担心，如果12月不降息，未来半年可能缺少降息机会。 加上临近年底12月，本身市场流动性就会紧张一些，导致最近的流动性危机。 3. 流动性危机出现的时候，不同资产大类的相关性会变强，一起出现波动。 其中像小盘股、成长股、虚拟货币等，对流动性更敏感。 最近小盘股指数，以及创业板科创板、纳斯达克、恒生科技等成长风格指数，虚拟货币， ...

2025.11. 23 本文字数：2861，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 一财资讯 招商银行：招银金融资产投资有限公司获准开业 中水渔业：公司股价存在大幅上涨后回落风险 中水渔业公告，公司股票连续两个交易日收盘价涨幅偏离值累计超过20%。公司最新滚动市盈率 77.53倍，市净率为13.48倍，公司当前的市盈率、市净率与同行业平均水平有较大差异。公司近期股 票交易异常波动，可能存在非理性交易行为，交易风险较大，存在股价大幅上涨后回落的风险。 财信发展：控股股东及间接控股股东破产重整是否成功尚存在不确定性 招商银行公告，全资子公司招银金融资产投资有限公司已获金融监管总局批准开业。该公司注册资本 为150亿元，将开展市场化债转股业务及股权投资试点业务。 中信银行：全资子公司信银金投获准开业 中信银行公告，国家金融监管总局已批准全资子公司信银金融资产投资有限公司（简称"信银金投"） 开业。信银金投注册资本为100亿元，注册地为广东省广州市。信银金投将围绕战略新兴产业、"专 精特新"等重点领域，开展市场化债转股及股权投资业务。 【品大事】 佳华科技：拟购买数盾科技控股权 股票停牌 佳华科技公告，公司正在筹划以发行股份及 ...

Core Insights - Recent market adjustments are influenced by debates surrounding AI narratives, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances, suggesting that the current market correction has begun to establish a sense of space [2][3] - The market valuation is approaching a "reasonable" central level, and if there is an overshoot, it may present opportunities to increase positions, focusing on mid-term themes and emphasizing safety margins [2][4] Market Adjustment Factors - The market correction is attributed to multiple factors: skepticism about sustained capital expenditure in AI, tightening liquidity expectations, and increased geopolitical tensions leading to a risk-off sentiment [3] - Historical data indicates that corrections caused by liquidity shocks often have a high probability of short-term rebounds [3] A-Share Market Valuation - Based on macro variables, the model predicts that the "reasonable" forward PE TTM central level for the Shanghai Composite Index is approximately 13.6x, indicating that the current correction has established a sense of space [4] Liquidity Improvement Signals - Positive signals for domestic liquidity include a potential reduction in leverage in financing funds, a rebound in private equity fund registration data, and a decrease in investor sentiment indicators [5] - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to over 70%, which may improve overseas liquidity conditions [5] Investment Focus Areas - Emphasis on safety margins in investment strategies, focusing on sectors with low valuation and improving fundamentals, such as domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - High-dividend assets are highlighted as having investment value in a low-risk appetite environment, with recommendations to focus on cyclical dividends and potential dividends in sectors like coal, chemicals, and food processing [6]

Market Overview - The stock market has recently experienced a significant correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.45% to close at 3834.89 points, and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index falling by 3.41% and 4.02% respectively, with nearly 5100 stocks declining [1][3] - High-performing sectors such as AI, chips, and lithium batteries have collectively adjusted, leading to a market-wide downturn [1][3] Fund Flows - Despite the market correction, over 70 billion yuan has flowed into ETFs as investors have taken the opportunity to buy on dips, indicating a contrarian approach [2][4] - Notable ETFs such as the Southern CSI 500 ETF, E Fund ChiNext ETF, and Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF have seen net inflows exceeding 30 billion yuan each in the past week [4] External Factors - Multiple fund companies attribute the recent market pullback to external factors, particularly the declining expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and rising concerns over an AI bubble [6][7] - The U.S. job market data showed unexpected growth in employment but also a rise in the unemployment rate, contributing to uncertainty regarding the Fed's monetary policy [7][9] Sector Performance - Cyclical and growth sectors have faced significant declines, with indices for industries such as coking coal, photovoltaic equipment, electronics, batteries, and chemicals dropping over 10% in the past week [3][8] - Conversely, consumer and financial sectors have remained relatively stable during this period [8] Future Outlook - Several fund companies maintain a positive long-term outlook for Chinese assets, suggesting a "slow bull" market trend despite short-term volatility [10][11] - The market is expected to benefit from supportive policies in the tech industry and a potential influx of retail investment as household savings may shift towards equities [11][12] - The long-term fundamentals, including real estate stabilization and the performance of high-tech sectors, are anticipated to support continued market growth [12][13]

中信证券：当下风险提前释放给了年末重新增配A股/港股、布局2026年的契机 11月23日，十大券商最新策略观点新鲜出炉，具体如下： | 券商 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 中信证券 | 当下风险提前释放给了年末重新增配A股/港股、布局2026年的契机 | | 华安证券 | AI主线"至暗时刻" 但长期信心坚定不移 | | 国金证券 | 打铁还需自身硬 | | 信达证券 | 风格切换可能会越来越强 关注低位价值板块 | | 中泰证券 | 本轮科技行情远未结束 在短期回调后有望延续 | | 兴业证券 | 中国资产有望迎来修复 | | 非金证券 | 短期继续均衡配置补涨的成长和低估值价值行业 | | 申万宏源 | 调整是也只是"怀疑牛市级别" | | 浙商证券 | 切勿盲目杀跌 盯券商、等待弹性重扩张 | | 东吴证券 | 资金主线有望向AI应用等方向切换 | 全球风险资产的波动表面是流动性问题，本质是风险资产对于AI单一叙事过于依赖，当产业发展速度（尤其是商业 化）跟不上二级市场的节奏时，适当的估值修正也是一种纾解风险的方式。北京时间周四（11月20日）晚，美国非农 就业数据的公布以及年内美联 ...

江南时报讯 秋分已过，寒露将至，秋收进入关键时期。启东农商银行以精准滴灌的"金融活水"助力当 地广大农户抢抓农时，确保颗粒归仓。 了解情况后，启东农商银行迅速启动"三农服务绿色通道"，由支行行长带队现场办公。针对农场"轻资 产"特点，精准匹配"苏农贷"产品，该产品无需抵押担保，依托政策风险分担机制，高效满足季节性资 金需求。最终，银行为该农场授信300万元，首笔50万元秋收资金迅速到位。此笔贷款也是该行今年以 来支持的家庭农场类秋收贷款之一，该类贷款总额已达3192.93万元。 有了资金支持，朱锦荣家庭农场的秋收工作得以有序推进，有效规避了天气风险。启东农商银行的秋收 金融服务不仅聚焦家庭农场等新型农业经营主体，更广泛覆盖农垦企业和个人农户，形成点面结合、全 面护航的支撑格局。 朱锦荣家庭农场是当地规模化种植的标杆，年营业额超千万元。今年秋收，农场面临多重压力：收割窗 口期短，10月中下旬出现连续降雨，须在雨前完成2000余亩作物抢收；秋收前需支付农机服务费、租赁 大型农机等，短期资金缺口约50万元；缺乏抵押物……一度陷入"有需求、难融资"的困境。 从个案到全域，精准"滴灌"的金融活水，稳稳托起了启东农户的丰 ...

周五，A股各大指数普遍大跌，上证指数跌2.45%，成交量有明显放大。 这是自今年4月初上涨以来，最大的单日跌幅！ 大概有多半年没见过如此大的跌幅了，估计不少朋友都有疑问，为什么跌幅这么大？上涨结束了？ 对于涨跌，其实我向来不赞成事后找原因的。 因为一是没什么用处，二是事后总是能找到一堆原因。 对于专业交易者来说，专注于交易系统的执行就够了，分析反而会造成干扰。 但既然大家都喜欢找原因，那不妨也来分析一下。 第一个原因就是外盘影响，美股大跌主要因素还是美联储降息预期的下降及AI高估值争议的影响（英伟达财报不错，但市场反应很差，结果高开低走大 阴线）； 第二个原因就是受股指期货交割日的影响，交割日效应常起到放大波动的作用。 银行考核存贷比使市场资金面收紧，叠加节假日效应，投资者持币观望情绪升温，成交量萎缩加剧波动。 上述原因其实只是导火索，市场本身具有自己内在的规律，外在因素不过是引发或推动了行情发展。 下面这张图是11月20日的分析配图，原文在这里。 大盘缩量阳孕线，多方力度还不够！ 11月20日大盘日线图 当时就指出多方力度不行，紧接着第二天，高开低走再形成一个阴线，这样三根K线就形成了空方炮看空K线组合。 ...

癌周研选 本周避险情绪主导全球金融市场，风险资产普遍遭遇抛售。全球主要股市（尤其是科技股）和大宗商品（原油、基本金属）普遍下跌。在这一传导效应 下，A股市场同样经历调整，上证指数失守3900点。新能源、光伏、电力设备等板块回调明显，银行、船舶制造、消费等少数概念相对抗跌。 11.23 2025 星期日 如何看待近期市场的调整？前期热门科技股的估值消化是否已经到位？请看本周机构研判。 解 锁 市场 最 强 音,把 握 投 资 机 会! 本周避险情绪主导全球金融市 场,风险资产普遍遭遇抛售。 全球主要股市(尤其是科技股) 和大宗商品(原油、基本金属) 普遍下跌。在这一传导效应下, A股市场同样经历调整,上证指 数失守3900点。新能源、光伏、 电力设备等板块回调明显,银 行、船舶制造、消费等少数概念 相对抗跌。 如何看待近期市场的调整?前期 热门科技股的估值消化是否已经 申万宏源：调整后春季行情更值得期待 9月以来AI产业链已处于高位震荡阶段。与此同时，近期美联储货币宽松低于预期，这进一步引发了全球高风险资产普跌。调整背后的本质还是资产性价 比降低，脆弱性提高，对流动性冲击的敏感度提升。对比2014年初的创业板、 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业周报 净息差边际趋稳，巩固核心盈利能力 | 1. | 《2025年中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | | % | 1 个月 | 3 | 个月 | 12 | 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 5.9 | | -5.6 | | 5.0 | | 绝对收益 | 2.6 | | -1.8 | | 16.7 | 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号中 国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 三季度监管指标：净息差边际趋稳，巩固核心盈利能力 2. 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 国家金融监管总局发布 2025 年三季度商业银行主要监管指标。三季度商业 银行监管数据呈现核心盈利能力改善态势，部分银 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week (from November 17 to November 21, 2025), the median weekly return of stock - type ETFs was -4.57%. Among broad - based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the smallest decline; among sector ETFs, the large - finance ETF had the smallest decline; among hot - topic ETFs, the bank ETF had the smallest decline [1][12][59]. - Last week, stock - type ETFs had a net subscription of 49.12 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the GEM - type ETF had the largest net subscription; among sector ETFs, the technology ETF had the largest net subscription; among theme ETFs, the pharmaceutical ETF had the largest net subscription [2][59]. - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - Peregrine were the top three fund companies in terms of the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. This week, GF CSI All - Index Food ETF and GF CSI A50 ETF will be issued [5][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - Stock - type ETFs had a median weekly return of -4.57%. The median returns of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, A500, CSI 500, CSI 1000, Sci - tech Innovation Board, and GEM - type ETFs were -2.69%, -3.72%, -4.24%, -5.71%, -5.77%, -5.77%, and -6.01% respectively. The median returns of money - type, bond - type, commodity - type, and cross - border ETFs were 0.01%, 0.01%, -2.50%, and -4.87% respectively [12]. - Among sectors, the median returns of large - finance, technology, consumption, and cyclical sector ETFs were -4.42%, -4.43%, -5.31%, and -5.32% respectively. Among hot - topics, bank, liquor, and AI ETFs had median returns of -0.91%, -2.39%, and -2.53% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while photovoltaic, new energy vehicle, and pharmaceutical ETFs had median returns of -11.19%, -8.28%, and -6.12% respectively, with relatively weak performance [15]. ETF Scale Change and Net Redemption/Subscription - As of last Friday, the scales of stock - type, cross - border, and bond - type ETFs were 3550.6 billion yuan, 921 billion yuan, and 718.8 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity - type and money - type ETFs were relatively small, at 230.5 billion yuan and 176.7 billion yuan respectively [17]. - Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 300 and Sci - tech Innovation Board ETFs had relatively large scales of 1148.2 billion yuan and 201.8 billion yuan respectively. The scales of A500, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, GEM - type, and CSI 1000 ETFs were relatively small, at 189.4 billion yuan, 184.6 billion yuan, 171.4 billion yuan, 170.3 billion yuan, and 163.7 billion yuan respectively [17][20]. - Among sectors, the technology sector ETF had a scale of 404.9 billion yuan, followed by the cyclical sector ETF with a scale of 210.9 billion yuan. The large - finance and consumption ETFs had relatively small scales of 203.5 billion yuan and 186.9 billion yuan respectively. Among hot - topics, chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales of 145.6 billion yuan, 139.4 billion yuan, and 102.1 billion yuan respectively [24]. - Last week, stock - type ETFs had a net subscription of 49.12 billion yuan and a total scale decrease of 115.443 billion yuan; money - type ETFs had a net subscription of 7.923 billion yuan and a total scale increase of 7.938 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the GEM - type ETF had the largest net subscription of 6.729 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 4.125 billion yuan; the Shanghai 50 ETF had the smallest net subscription of 0.316 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 4.83 billion yuan [27][28]. - Among sectors, the technology ETF had the largest net subscription of 5.694 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 14.492 billion yuan; the large - finance ETF had the largest net redemption of 0.172 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 8.739 billion yuan. Among hot - topics, the pharmaceutical ETF had the largest net subscription of 2.21 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 3.886 billion yuan; the bank ETF had the largest net redemption of 1.849 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 2.17 billion yuan [32]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, GEM - type, and A500 ETFs were at the 84.67%, 80.38%, 94.64%, 93.90%, 54.82%, and 83.67% quantile levels respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 66.20%, 62.90%, 92.00%, 51.11%, 46.83%, and 83.09% quantile levels respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios of Sci - tech Innovation Board - type ETFs are currently at the 83.51% and 67.19% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of A500 and CSI 300 ETFs decreased significantly [35]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of cyclical, large - finance, consumption, and technology sector ETFs were at the 69.33%, 35.53%, 19.62%, and 88.79% quantile levels respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 65.79%, 58.78%, 21.60%, and 75.19% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of large - finance, cyclical, and consumption ETFs decreased significantly [38]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings quantiles of bank, dividend, and military - industry ETFs were relatively high, at 99.84%, 99.26%, and 93.16% respectively; the price - to - book quantiles of dividend, AI, and robot ETFs were relatively high, at 96.54%, 94.39%, and 89.78% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of pharmaceutical and new energy vehicle ETFs decreased significantly [39]. - Overall, among broad - based ETFs, the GEM - type ETF had relatively low valuation quantiles; among sectors, the consumption and large - finance ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; among sub - topics, the liquor ETF had relatively low valuation quantiles [40]. ETF Margin Trading - As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of stock - type ETFs increased from 47.328 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.368 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume decreased from 2.681 billion shares in the previous week to 2.608 billion shares [44]. - Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchase amount from last Monday to Thursday, the Sci - tech Innovation Board ETF and GEM - type ETF had relatively high average daily margin trading purchase amounts. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily short - selling volume, the A500 ETF and CSI 300 ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [45][49][52]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Huatai - Peregrine Fund ranked third, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [53]. - Last week, 8 new ETFs were established, and this week, GF CSI All - Index Food ETF and GF CSI A50 ETF will be issued [56].