Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot is sluggish, with a shortage of high - quality spot inventory. Spinning mills only make purchases based on rigid demand, and most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable [2]. - The trading in the domestic pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 14,045 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.14%, and its night - session closing price was the same as the previous day. The trading volume was 338,147 lots, a decrease of 347,135 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 710,163 lots, a decrease of 5,361 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 19,995 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and its night - session closing price was 20,020 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 9,362 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 24,498 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.05 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of 0.72% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 6,131, a decrease of 189 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 60, an increase of 3 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, an increase of 54 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,993 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.45%. The price in Hebei was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.28% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.43%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 74.16 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,766 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.15% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Based on TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish. High - quality spot inventory is scarce, and spinning mills only make rigid - demand purchases. Most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable. For example, the mainstream lower sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 is in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1200, and more sales basis are above CF01 + 1200, for inland self - pick - up. A small amount of 2024/25 Beijiang local machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 was traded at around CF01 + 1400 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: According to TTEB information, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has arrived, and there are significant differences in the market. Considering that it's just the beginning of the peak season, even if short - term orders are not ideal, there is still time, so the possibility of a sharp decline is relatively small. Conversely, an upward trend requires positive news to trigger. The short - sellers are waiting for time, while the long - sellers are waiting for news. The main 01 contract on the futures market continues to fluctuate around 14,000 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC August report, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China imported 50,000 tons of cotton in July, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,479 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,454 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending cotton inventory in the 2025/26 season in August is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The overall position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Positive Factors**: The previous reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the United States and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. There is an increasing expectation for the consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The trade negotiations have been postponed, and the current export tariffs to the United States are relatively high. Overall, foreign trade orders have declined, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton is about to be listed [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The total global cotton production in the 2024/25 season (August estimate) is 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Total consumption is 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 742,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrower year - on - year fluctuation, reflecting the expectation of supply - demand balance [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China**: For the 2025/26 season, the estimated production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [15]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the cotton industry is "oscillation", suggesting that the short - term demand is average and the supply is loose, with the market likely to fluctuate within a range [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the old - crop inventory shortage has been priced in, and the new - crop abundant harvest reality is being priced. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The inventory shows different trends in commercial and industrial aspects. The profit situation of spinning is poor, while the valuation is relatively low. Macro - policies have both positive and negative impacts. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish as the old - crop inventory shortage has been priced, and the new - crop abundant harvest weak reality is being priced [3]. - **Demand**: Neutral. Excess spinning capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is depleting rapidly, while the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3]. - **Base/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the Zhengzhou cotton basis maintained an oscillation, with the Xinjiang double 28 spot basis at 1000 - 1200, and the Zhengzhou cotton September - January spread continued to strengthen [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, and inland spinning has a serious loss. The yarn - cotton spread is running at a low level [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a relatively low level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, which is bullish for the far - month contracts. Internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillation. The short - term demand is average, and the supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. Key risks to watch include domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. PART TWO: Cotton Fundamental Data Upstream Planting - The cotton planting area is expected to increase. The first - time survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton planting area is 4159.9 million mu, and that in Xinjiang is 3678.8 million mu, with year - on - year increases of 1.88% and 3.18% respectively [8][9]. - The cotton yield per mu in 2025 is estimated to be 149.9 kg nationally and 158.5 kg in Xinjiang [10]. Mid - stream - **Inventory**: The finished - product inventory accumulation in mid - stream factories has slowed down. The inventory data of weaving mills and spinning mills are presented in the form of graphs [18]. - **Factory Load**: The operating rates of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are declining [25]. - **Spinning Mill Profit**: Spinning mills are in a loss situation, as shown by the negative spinning immediate profit and low yarn - cotton spot spread [29]. Downstream - The downstream inventory is at a seasonal high, as reflected by the inventory data of textile and clothing enterprises above the designated size [34]. International Market - **US Cotton Exports**: The signing and shipment of US cotton exports are at the lowest level in the same period of history. Exports to different countries show different trends: exports to Pakistan are decreasing year - on - year and at a low level; exports to Vietnam have increased significantly year - on - year in terms of signing and shipment [41][50][56]. PART THREE: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: It is oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 shows relevant trends [63]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The September - January spread and January - May spread of Zhengzhou cotton are presented in the form of graphs [67]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining [69]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt**: The virtual - to - real ratio of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining [74]. - **US Cotton Fund Position**: Data on the net long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options, as well as the long - position ratios, are presented [82][84]. - **US Cotton Month Spread**: It shows a "Deep Contango" pattern [88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton futures price has increased in volatility due to news [1] - The ICE cotton futures declined by about 1% last Friday, and concerns about the export prospects of US cotton continued to keep ICE cotton in a weak and volatile state [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2601 yesterday was 14,240 yuan/ton, up 1.21%, and the night - session closing price was 14,015 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The closing price of CY2511 yesterday was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 0.25%, and the night - session closing price was 19,960 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. The price of ICE US cotton 12 was 66.53 cents/pound, down 1.11%. The trading volume of CF2601 was 683,467 lots, an increase of 394,578 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 754,836 lots, an increase of 54,447 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 11,926 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 24,110 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants was 7,762, a decrease of 67, and the effective forecast was 249, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warrants was 69, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 74 [2] - **Spot Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,487 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,183 yuan/ton, up 1.13%; the price in Shandong was 15,340 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the price in Hebei was 15,308 yuan/ton, up 0.01%. The 3128B index was 15,328 yuan/ton, down 0.05%. The international cotton index M was 74.85 cents/pound, up 0.82%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,780 yuan/ton, up 0.10%, and the arrival price was 21,818 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [2] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was sluggish, and the basis remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF01 + 1150 - 1400. The freight of cotton out of Xinjiang by truck continued to rise slightly [3] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average and slowed down compared with the previous period. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The C40S and low - count yarn varieties were the main ones, and the feedback on high - count yarn was average. Some large spinning mills raised prices, but there were few followers, and the overall cotton yarn price remained stable [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and attention should be paid to the situation of new cotton crops [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 14,070 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.04%, and 14,270 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 1.42%. Its trading volume was 288,889 lots, an increase of 26,527 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 700,389 lots, a decrease of 8,588 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 20,090 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.05%, and 20,175 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.42%. Its trading volume was 6,502 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,701 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE Cotton No. 12 closed at 67.28 cents/pound yesterday with an increase of 0.95% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,762, a decrease of 67 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 249, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 69, a decrease of 5 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 74 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.03% [1]. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,013 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.10% [1]. - The price in Hebei was 15,306 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day with an increase of 0.06% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.04% [1]. - The International Cotton Index: M: CNCottonM was 74.24 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.07 cents from the previous day with a decline of 0.09% [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,865 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.15% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was rather sluggish, with partial areas performing well, and the basis remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B, impurity within 3.5) was CF01 + 1150 - 1400, and most of the Southern Xinjiang lint was quoted at 1150 - 1300 for inland self - pick - up. The 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Corps machine - picked cotton (4129/29~30B, impurity within 3) was traded around CF09 + 1700 for in - Xinjiang self - pick - up [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market slowed down. Spinning mills reported that orders were not as good as those in the middle of the month. The market mainly sold varieties of C40S and below, and the feedback on high - count yarn was average. Cotton yarn prices were mainly stable, and spinning mills had a certain willingness to hold prices, but high - priced transactions were difficult [1][2]. - **US Cotton**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly. After falling below 67 cents/pound again, commercial and technical buying pushed it to rebound. The weekly US cotton export sales data was still average. As of the week ending August 21, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the 25/26 season was 179,300 bales [1][2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, domestic cotton supply is tightening. With the arrival of the peak season and the possibility of a scramble for new cotton, Zhengzhou cotton futures may show a volatile and upward trend before the large - scale listing of new cotton. Medium - term, due to strong expectations of a bumper harvest in the new year, the futures market will face significant pressure during the centralized listing period. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the peak season. If the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations, Zhengzhou cotton may still decline. Long - term, cotton prices are expected to be positive. After the seasonal pressure eases, it is advisable to look for opportunities to go long on dips [4]. Summary According to the Directory Tariff Policy Impact Analysis - On May 12, China and the US issued a joint statement in Geneva, canceling 91% of the mutually imposed tariffs. However, the overall tariff level on Chinese textiles in the US remains high, and there is still an additional 25% tariff on US cotton imported by China. The extension of the tariff truce for 90 days has a limited positive impact on export trade. The US - India trade friction also affects the cotton market. India's temporary cancellation of cotton import tariffs has limited positive effects due to the short time period [9][10][14]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis Global - In August, the USDA significantly reduced the global cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season in its supply - demand report, changing the supply - demand situation from loose to tight. However, this adjustment is controversial as it may not fully reflect the production potential of some countries and lacks strong support on the demand side [15]. United States - The NASS's August report shows a reduction in cotton planting and harvest areas in the US, with the 25/26 season's production dropping to 288 tons. Exports and ending stocks are also down, improving the supply - demand outlook. But some market participants think the adjustment may be too radical, and the reduction in supply needs further observation [18][19]. Brazil - The USDA predicts that Brazil's new - season cotton production will increase by 27 tons to 397 tons, with export expectations exceeding 3 million tons. Brazil has replaced the US as the world's largest cotton exporter, and its increasing production will further pressure US cotton [27][29]. India - For the 24/25 season, different institutions have different estimates of India's cotton production. For the 25/26 season, the USDA reduced India's consumption and increased ending stocks. Currently, India's new - cotton sowing progress is slower than usual, and there are uncertainties in the final planting area and output [32]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis USDA - In August, the USDA increased China's new - season cotton production and consumption while reducing imports and ending stocks. However, it may still underestimate China's cotton production [35]. BCO - The Cotton Information Network continued to lower China's ending stocks. For the 24/25 season, production remained stable, imports decreased, and consumption increased. For the 25/26 season, production increased, imports decreased, and consumption remained stable, with ending stocks also decreasing [38]. Production - Domestic institutions' estimates of China's total cotton production are around 6.9 million tons, but the market expects a higher output, especially in Xinjiang, where a bumper harvest is likely [41]. Import - Due to limited additional import quotas and high domestic production, China's cotton imports have been low. The recent issuance of 200,000 tons of sliding - scale duty import quotas is unlikely to ease the short - term supply shortage in Xinjiang [44]. Inventory - China's domestic cotton commercial inventory has been decreasing rapidly and is at a historically low level, which strongly supports domestic cotton prices [46]. Textile Industry Chain - Since August, the demand side has improved marginally, but the improvement is limited. The peak - season demand may not be strong. Yarn mills' sales have improved slightly, but profits are still poor. Weaving mills' orders have increased slightly, and their raw - material procurement enthusiasm is limited [52]. Future Cotton Market Outlook ICE US Cotton - The new US tariffs are not conducive to global textile trade. India's temporary cancellation of cotton import tariffs has limited positive effects. The USDA's adjustment of the supply - demand situation is beneficial to cotton prices, but the reduction in production needs further verification. In the short term, ICE US cotton may be trapped in the 65 - 70 cent trading range. In the medium - to long - term, attention should be paid to the realization of the production - reduction expectation [60]. Domestic Zhengzhou Cotton - The "anti - involution" in China has ended, and the tariff truce has been extended for 90 days, but macro risks remain. The short - term supply shortage persists, and the peak - season demand improvement provides support for cotton prices. However, the large - scale listing of new cotton may bring hedging pressure. In the medium - to long - term, attention should be paid to tariff policies and the realization of the domestic production - increase expectation [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall assessment of cotton investment is complex. The fundamentals are neutral, with different data sources showing varying production, consumption, and inventory figures. The basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the market trend is bullish, the main position is bullish, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October." If the Zhengzhou cotton main contract 01 can stand above 14,000, the probability of subsequent volatile upward movement increases; otherwise, if it falls below 14,000, the downward space will open [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and an enhanced expectation for the peak consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October." Bearish factors include the postponement of trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to ICAC's August report, the production in the 2025/26 season is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. According to USDA's August report, the production in the 2025/26 season is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,334 yuan, and the basis is 1,234 yuan (for the 01 contract), with a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in the 2025/26 season to be 8.23 million tons in August [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position increases, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectations**: The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou cotton retraced to the 14,000 mark again during the night session. There are differences between the long and short sides regarding the expectation of the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the total global production was 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Total global consumption was 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. Total global imports were 9.489 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 239,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2%. Total global exports were 9.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 240,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3%. The total global ending inventory was 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 747,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%) year - on - year; global consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (+3.9%) year - on - year; the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China**: In the 2025/26 season, the initial inventory is 8.01 million tons, the sown area is 2.878 million hectares, the harvested area is 2.878 million hectares, the yield per hectare is 2,172 kg, the production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Market Overview - On Monday, the ICE cotton December contract fell by 0.91%, while the overnight cotton 2601 contract rose by 0.21% [1] Fundamental Summary - As of August 25, the Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index was reported at 71.91 cents per pound, down 0.70% from the previous day and down 2.24% from the same period last month [2] - The Agriculture Minister of Pakistan, Iftikhar Ali Sahoo, announced that 3.2 million acres of cotton have been planted in Punjab this year, with a production target of 5.5 million bales [2] - According to Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB), as of August 23, the cotton harvesting rate in Brazil was 60.3%, up from 48.9% the previous week, but down from 76.1% in the same period last year and below the five-year average of 77.8% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures noted that the short-term moisture conditions for U.S. cotton continue to improve, which is bearish for the market. However, international cotton prices are considered undervalued, suggesting a buying opportunity on dips. The current pace of cotton inventory depletion and import expectations indicate a tight supply situation before the new cotton is listed. The pre-sale situation for this year's new cotton is favorable, and there is a slight chance of early harvesting in some regions, providing short-term support for the market. Demand is expected to improve with the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking season [3] - In the domestic market, Zhongyuan Futures reported that the new cotton growth is generally normal, with limited impact from recent weather conditions. There are strong expectations for a bumper crop in 2025. Demand showed slight improvement in August, with a minor decrease in cotton yarn inventory among textile enterprises, although overall inventory remains high. The pace of destocking at terminal fabric factories is slower than that of yarn factories. The market's expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" provide some support for cotton prices, but overall sentiment remains cautious, requiring close attention to the strength of demand recovery [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the weakening US dollar, the price of ICE cotton futures closed higher. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with tight supply before the new cotton is on the market, and the spot price is firm. Although inland spinning mills have no profit, there are expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops. Overall, the tight supply of old crops and the expectation of improved demand are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the increased production of new cotton. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,120 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position is - 54,544 lots, down 6,028 lots; main contract position of cotton is 504,609 lots, up 19,701 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 7,104 lots, down 94 lots. The closing price of the main contract of cotton yarn is 20,165 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the top 20 net position of cotton yarn futures is - 709 lots, down 329 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn is 22,276 lots, up 318 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity of cotton yarn is - 8 lots [2]. Spot Market - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,235 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,506 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 14,297 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,720 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,931 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,505 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 857 thousand tons, up 7 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 50 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110 thousand tons, unchanged; the profit of imported cotton is 946 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 2,189.8 thousand tons, down 640 thousand tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; the monthly output of cloth is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,516,175.9 thousand US dollars, down 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,160,400.9 thousand US dollars, down 44,419.8 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 11.08%, up 0.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 11.11%, up 0.59%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.23%, up 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.74%, up 0.05% [2]. Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of August 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 1.7126 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1435 million tons (a decrease of 7.73%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 0.9842 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1477 million tons (a decrease of 13.05%); the commercial cotton in inland areas is 0.4027 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0162 million tons (a decrease of 3.87%). Last Friday, the December contract of ICE cotton closed up 0.79%. On Monday, the 2601 contract of cotton closed up 0.75%, and the 2511 contract of cotton yarn closed up 0.45% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a "Cautious Bullish" rating on the cotton industry [4] Core Viewpoints - Considering the current de - stocking speed of cotton commercial inventory and the import situation, the tight supply of cotton before the new cotton goes on the market still exists. There is still some short - term support for the market due to the high - production capacity and the possibility of a small - scale pick - up in some areas. However, the expected increase in this year's new cotton production and the possibility of early listing limit the upside space and time. In terms of demand, the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market has started, with the operating rate and orders gradually improving, but the demand performance needs further observation. It is recommended to take a long - position approach on dips and consider adjusting the long - short rhythm according to the year - on - year demand situation in September [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Review - **Macro**: China's central bank aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices. A 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instrument will be launched. Internationally, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has slightly eased, and the cotton excellent - rate has slightly rebounded. Brazil's new cotton harvest progress is the slowest in the past five years [4] - **Supply**: In the international market, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has eased, and Brazil's new cotton harvest progress is slow. Domestically, most of Xinjiang's new cotton has entered the boll - splitting stage, and some may be listed early in early October. The import quota policy has not been introduced, and the import volume in July did not effectively ease the tight inventory [4] - **Inventory**: Domestically, the commercial de - stocking of cotton is still fast and lower than the same period. The downstream terminal products are also slightly de - stocking, with pure - cotton products de - stocking faster than blended products [4] - **Demand**: Domestically, the "Golden September and Silver October" has started, with orders accelerating and the operating rate rising but still lower than the same period. The trading volume in the light - textile market has recovered, but the pure - cotton fabric trading has not recovered well. Externally, the textile and clothing export data in July was under pressure [4] 2. August USDA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The US cotton production and ending inventory in the August USDA supply - demand balance sheet were significantly revised down, which was more bullish than expected. For example, the US cotton production was revised down from 315 (July) to 262.7 (August) [5] 3. Cotton Futures and Spot - The weekly average cotton price and the basis both declined significantly [6] 4. Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - The weekly cotton - yarn price declined along with the cotton price [13] 5. Supply - **Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: This week, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased by 153,500 tons to 1.7126 million tons, lower than the same period. The inventory of pure - cotton yarn, terminal grey fabric, and polyester - cotton yarn in the factory all decreased [16] - **Imported Cotton**: In July, the imported cotton resources increased month - on - month but were still weak year - on - year, with a total of about 150,766 tons [18] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 22, the number of Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts decreased by 564 to 7,198, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was equivalent to 290,400 tons of cotton [20] 6. Demand - **Operating Rate and Orders**: This week, the spinning mill's operating rate increased by 0.3% to 65.8%, and the weaving mill's operating rate increased by 0.2% to 37%. The spinning mill's orders increased by 3.06 days to 11.42 days. The spinning profit improved [22] - **Light - Textile Market**: The total trading volume in the light - textile market increased, but the cotton - fabric trading volume decreased. The prices of fabric and accessories in the Keqiao market declined [25] - **Retail Sales**: In July, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles above the designated size increased by 1.8% year - on - year, with a slightly slower growth rate than in June [28] - **Exports**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports increased by 0.6%. In July, the exports decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 2% month - on - month. Exports to the US, ASEAN, and the EU all weakened to varying degrees [30][33] - **PMI**: In July, the cotton - spinning industry PMI decreased by 12% to 35.71%, and sub - indicators such as new orders and operating rate also declined [35] 7. CFTC Positioning Data - The net short positions of non - commercial and fund investors decreased slightly [36] 8. Macro - China's central bank aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and a large - scale policy - based financial instrument will be launched [4]