【环球时报记者 李萌 环球时报驻德国特约记者 青木】中国欧盟商会8日发布一项调查结果称，多数在 华经营的欧洲企业已感受到或预计将感受到中美贸易冲突带来的"积极影响"。英国《金融时报》分析 称，原因是中国对美国加征关税的反制措施使该国进口商品在中国市场失去竞争力。虽然欧洲企业受到 中美贸易冲突带来的整体经济影响，但也可能从美国企业手中夺取市场份额。 根据《金融时报》报道和中国欧盟商会发布的报告，上述调查于4月17日至27日展开，收到162家机械、 汽车及汽车零部件、医疗器械等领域企业的回复。调查旨在了解外企在关税战背景下的感受。超过半数 企业担忧2025年的营业环境将会变得困难，不过，与2018年该商会针对第一次中美贸易战进行的调查结 果类似，许多商会成员已能缓解关税带来的直接影响，这凸显了他们的务实精神和适应能力，其中"立 足中国，服务中国"的经营理念是关键因素。 值得注意的是，有19%的受访企业表示，由于贸易冲突，它们从在华经营的中外客户那里获得了更多业 务。36%的受访者表示尚未感受到积极影响，但预计机遇会来。 "我们听到的消息是，许多欧洲公司正在与美国公司竞争，尤其是与来自美国的进口产品竞争。"中国欧 ...

宏 观 研 究 投资要点： 宏 观 定 期 报 告 受第二轮抢出口拉动，4 月出口同比 8.1%，较预期更为强劲；加之中美 拟进行对等经贸会谈，美关税烈度整体趋缓，预计二次抢出口可望贯穿二季度， 下半年出口下行风险犹存。4 月出口（美元计价，下同）同比 8.1%，较春节调 整后的 3 月同比增速回升达 2.4 个百分点，在 4 月特朗普推出"对等关税"之 后又针对部分国家地区实施 90 天缓冲、针对半导体等商品实施豁免，造成出 口企业预期巨大波动的背景下，较我们此前稍显乐观的预期（5.7%）更加强劲， 凸显出新一轮"抢出口"显著的拉动作用。近期我国同意与美方进行对等经贸 会谈，美国内需受到短期刺激效应同时关税烈度整体趋缓，预计我国的二次抢 出口有望贯穿整个二季度。4 月进口同比跌幅较 3 月收窄 4.1 个百分点至-0.2%， 进口反弹带动当月货物贸易顺差小幅收窄至 961.8 亿美元但仍维持高位。美国 发起的本轮关税战进入拉锯阶段，美方试图将我国强大的产业链生产能力从其 供给侧逐步剥离的意图尚未根本性改变，下半年我国出口下行风险犹存。 关税动荡中边际缓和，我国域外协同生产活跃度陡升；人民币汇率指数小 幅走弱 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of industrial development as the foundation of economic growth, with a focus on reform and innovation to promote quality transformation in the industry by 2025 [1] - The city aims for a growth of over 7% in industrial added value and over 8% in industrial technological transformation investment for the year [1] - The "1285" work system will be implemented to strengthen the "reform to promote, seek quality through innovation" brand [1] Group 2 - The strategy includes enhancing industrial organization capabilities through a "chain leader system" and focusing on structural adjustment, ecological optimization, and integration of four chains [2] - Key industries targeted include non-ferrous metals, black metals, green chemicals, and agricultural product processing, with an emphasis on technological upgrades and digital transformation [2] - The plan aims to attract new enterprises in emerging industries such as information technology, health, and new energy [2] Group 3 - The initiative includes the establishment of a "1+N+X" digital economy ecosystem to promote smart industrial platform applications and AI integration in manufacturing [3] - The goal is to support the digital transformation of 1,000 small and medium-sized enterprises by showcasing 20 exemplary cases [3] - The focus will be on expanding digital industries, particularly in electronic materials and intelligent terminals [3] Group 4 - The green transformation strategy aims to deepen the construction of a green manufacturing system and cultivate 15 provincial-level green manufacturing units [4] - A combination of energy efficiency diagnostics and energy-saving inspections will be implemented to accelerate the green transition in traditional industries [4] - The plan includes a "per unit output benefit" evaluation reform to promote differentiated policies for industrial transformation [4] Group 5 - The city will implement a series of actions under the "Chat City Enterprise Home" initiative to enhance enterprise support and service efficiency [5] - The focus will be on immediate response to enterprise needs and efficient government services through an intelligent support platform [5] - Activities will include enterprise recruitment, policy promotion, and legal services to ensure compliance and operational efficiency [6] Group 6 - The industrial and information technology bureau will pursue high-end, intelligent, green, and cluster development directions while emphasizing reform and innovation [6] - The commitment is to promote the construction of a strong manufacturing city and contribute to the modernization of the region [6]

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (000338.SZ) reported a growth in both revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth, indicating a strong performance amidst strategic transformation towards new energy, digitalization, and aftermarket services [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 57.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.92% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.711 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.27% - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 2.485 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.98% - Gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 22.2% [2]. Market Trends - Industry experts predict that 2025 will be a rebound year for the heavy truck market, with sales potentially returning to over one million units - In February 2025, excavator sales reached 19,270 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 52.8%, driven primarily by domestic demand [2]. Business Segments - Weichai Power sold 217,000 engines in Q1 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase - Heavy truck engine sales remained stable at 83,000 units - High-end large-bore engine sales reached nearly 2,500 units, a 40% year-on-year increase, benefiting from domestic infrastructure opportunities [3]. Strategic Transformation - The company has identified new energy, digitalization, and aftermarket services as key strategic directions for transformation in 2025 - The launch of the first battery product from the Weichai BYD joint venture marks a significant step in establishing a large-scale production base for new energy powertrains [4][5]. Technological Advancements - Weichai Power is focusing on three technological directions: pure electric, hybrid, and fuel cell technologies, leveraging its full industry chain capabilities to meet market demands [5]. - The company has implemented a fully automated "black factory" model in its new engine digital industrial park, achieving an 80% automation rate in assembly [6]. Aftermarket Strategy - Weichai Power aims to transform its aftermarket business, setting a target of over 10 billion yuan in revenue - The company plans to shift from a parts sales model to a service solution model, addressing customer pain points in the aftermarket [7].

智通财经APP获悉，国际货币基金组织(IMF)敦促日本央行，鉴于美国关税对经济造成压力并增加不确 定性，在进一步加息问题上应保持灵活，依据数据做出决策。IMF日本事务主管纳达·乔埃里周三在华 盛顿接受采访时表示，"我们对于货币政策的核心观点是，在不确定性加剧的时期，灵活性和基于数据 决策至关重要。""日本央行必须全面审视所有数据，并清晰地向市场传达他们对这些数据的解读，以此 解释其决策。" 乔埃里的此番言论是在国际货币基金组织于周二发布最新《世界经济展望》报告之后发表的。这是美国 总统唐纳德·特朗普加大全球关税举措以来发布的首份报告。报告不仅下调了全球经济增长预期，还将 日本2025年的经济增长预期下调了0.5个百分点，至0.6%。 与大多数其他国家一样，日本获得了特朗普"对等关税"90天的缓征期。原本针对这个亚洲盟友的关税税 率为24%，目前，日本仍需承担10%的基础关税，以及针对汽车、钢铁和铝制品25%的额外关税。 乔埃里称，在日本经济增长预期下调的0.5个百分点中，约0.28个百分点是由关税的直接影响造成的，其 余部分则与间接影响和不确定性增加有关。在关税的直接影响中，近一半来自对汽车和汽车零部件行业 ...

Group 1: Market Overview and Sector Analysis - The article discusses the current positioning of six main sectors: technology, consumer, pharmaceuticals, new energy, dividends, and overseas expansion, providing insights on stock prices, valuations, and fundamentals [1] - The property service industry achieved a positive cash flow of 19.8 billion and a net increase in monetary funds of 6 billion, with an average dividend payout ratio rising to 65% [6] - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, with PB ratios at the lower end of the past three years, indicating a high cost-performance ratio [7] Group 2: Electric and Commercial Vehicles - The development of hybrid heavy-duty trucks is seen as the final piece in the electrification puzzle, with expected penetration rates of 1%, 5%, and 10% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The article highlights the significant growth potential for hybrid heavy-duty trucks in long-distance transportation, with a projected market share of 30% by 2030 [2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Energy - The electric power sector experienced a 1.3% year-on-year growth in electricity consumption in January and February 2025, attributed to warm winter temperatures and a high base effect from the previous year [9] - Investment in thermal and nuclear power has accelerated, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.5% in investment amounts [9] Group 4: Consumer Trends and Tourism - During the Qingming Festival, domestic travel increased by 6.3% in terms of the number of trips and 6.7% in total spending, indicating strong travel demand [13] - The article anticipates a continued rise in leisure tourism and service consumption, with a focus on sectors like dining and hotels [13] Group 5: Agricultural Machinery - The recent government plan aims to significantly advance agricultural modernization by 2035, which will drive demand for high-performance and intelligent agricultural machinery [11] - The plan emphasizes upgrading agricultural machinery and integrating advanced equipment into the entire agricultural production process [11]

Group 1: Basic Chemicals - DuPont China Group is under antitrust investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation due to alleged violations of the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China, which may benefit domestic substitutes in semiconductor materials and ion exchange membranes [4] Group 2: Automotive - Since Trump's administration, a total of 45% additional tariffs have been imposed on automobiles and auto parts exported from China to the U.S., impacting trade and potentially affecting chip and automotive electronic components [5] - Companies with core component self-research capabilities and those localizing production in the U.S. or Mexico are expected to perform well [5] Group 3: Pharmaceuticals - The U.S. government announced a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, which presents significant opportunities for the blood products industry [6] Group 4: Company Reports - Dashi Holdings, the exclusive franchisee of Domino's Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, has accelerated market expansion, reaching 1,008 stores by the end of 2024 [7] - Mega Xincai reported a revenue of 2.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 210 million yuan for 2024, with significant year-on-year growth of 88% and 26% respectively [8] - Naipu Mining achieved a revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, a 19.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, up 45.5% [9] - Guizhou Moutai's total revenue for 2024 was 174.1 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.7% and 15.4% respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the tariff conflict initiated by President Trump, which includes a dual tariff system with a 10% baseline tariff and additional tariffs on imports from countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S. [1] - It is noted that the overall tariff on Chinese automotive exports to the U.S. has reached 70%, significantly affecting the industry [1] - The report anticipates that the impact of the tariffs will be greater on auto parts than on complete vehicles, emphasizing the importance of localized production and self-research of core components as key solutions to trade friction [1] Summary by Sections Vehicle Impact - The direct impact of the tariffs on complete vehicles is expected to be minimal, with only 11.6 thousand vehicles exported from China to the U.S. in 2024, accounting for 0.4% of total Chinese vehicle sales [2] - The report predicts that the tariff increases may lead to a temporary spike in U.S. consumer vehicle purchases, with a projected 9% year-on-year increase in U.S. vehicle sales in March 2025 [2] Parts Sector - The report estimates that China's automotive parts exports to the U.S. will reach 99.77 billion yuan in 2024, representing 15% of total automotive parts exports [3] - It suggests that companies with manufacturing bases in Mexico are likely to benefit from the current tariff policies, as Mexico is the largest source of automotive imports to the U.S. [3] - The report recommends a global layout for parts manufacturers, prioritizing those with factories in the U.S. and Mexico over those solely based in China [3] Investment Recommendations - For complete vehicles, the report recommends Xpeng Motors and suggests paying attention to Geely and BYD [4] - For parts manufacturers, it recommends Fuyao Glass, Top Group, and Nexperia, while suggesting to keep an eye on Sanhua Intelligent Control [4] - The report includes a profitability forecast and valuation table for key companies, indicating a "Buy" rating for all listed companies [5]