Group 1: Report Title and General Information - The report is titled "LPG: Short - term bearish factors realized, focus on lower support" and was released on May 16, 2025 [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - PG2506 had a yesterday's closing price of 4,269 with a - 2.00% daily increase, and a night - session closing price of 4,278 with a 0.21% night - session increase. PG2507 had a yesterday's closing price of 4,181 with a - 1.99% daily increase, and a night - session closing price of 4,190 with a 0.22% night - session increase [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - PG2506 had a yesterday's trading volume of 79,440, a decrease of 21,002 from the previous day, and an open interest of 56,401, an increase of 1,503 from the previous day. PG2507 had a yesterday's trading volume of 32,299, a decrease of 590 from the previous day, and an open interest of 55,554, an increase of 7,618 from the previous day [1] Price Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 711 yesterday (compared to 694 the day before), and the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 06 contract was 771 yesterday (compared to 724 the day before) [1] Industry Chain Key Price Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 58.0% (compared to 59.6% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 56.1% (compared to 61.4% last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 39.9% (compared to 42.2% last week) [1] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The LPG trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [7] Group 4: Market Information Saudi CP Expectations - On May 14, 2025, the expected price of propane in the June Saudi CP was 583 dollars/ton, a 6 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 563 dollars/ton, a 6 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day. The expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 560 dollars/ton, a 7 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 540 dollars/ton, a 7 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day [9] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies including Puyang Far East Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans with various start and end times, some of which are still undetermined [8] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many refineries such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye, etc., have device maintenance plans with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, and end times, some of which are still undetermined [10]

热点报告——液化石油气 中美关税阶段性缓和，内外盘定价逻辑分化 | | [Table液_R化an石k]油气：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 14 | 日 [Table_Analyser] | | 走势评级： 报告日期： | | | | | | | [Table_Summary] ★中美关税缓和超预期，FEI/CP 价差显著收窄 关税缓和对国际纸货价格产生了明显的影响，中国进口美国货 可能性的提升支撑 6 月 FEI 纸货价格大幅上涨，同时此前 CP 价 格来自中国寻求美国货替代来源的支撑预期部分消退下有所回 落，FEI-CP 价差走强，但并未走强至对等关税加征前水平，6 月合约两者价差走强至-20 美元/吨后上行乏力。 能 源 结合当前的 LPG 商品基本面以及宏观环境仍存在不确定性的整 体情景，我们预计短期 FEI 向上和 CP 向下的进一步驱动相对有 限，CP 预计仍将较 FEI 表现偏强。 与 碳 ★ C4 需求疲弱叠加仓单压制下，关税缓和对内盘价格影响有限 中 和 相对于 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao029552@gtjas.com 期货从业资格号：F03128004 日期：2025年5月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 供应 03 需求 04 期货纸货 月差结构 现货基差 美国 中东 国内 化工需求 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点：暂时震荡 ◆ 我们的逻辑：5月3日-5月9日，国际原油下行，国内需求走弱，液化气市场承压。截至5月9日，AFEI丙烷指数MA5下跌 2.5%至501.15美元/吨；美湾MB现货MA5同步跌至371美元/吨；华南丙烷冷冻货到岸价MA5为638美元/吨，较上期 均价跌16.8美元/吨，跌幅为2.56%。供 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The LPG market is expected to be dominated by weak oscillations. During the May Day holiday, the decline of the overseas LPG market was less than that of crude oil, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The official prices of May CP were released before the holiday, with propane and butane down 5/15 to 610/590 US dollars respectively, higher than market expectations. The increase in CP discount drove up import costs, providing some support for propane prices. The domestic civil LPG price remained stable overall, with the cheapest deliverable product priced at 4820 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, high arrivals led to significant port inventory accumulation; factory inventory decreased slightly due to upstream inventory clearance before the holiday, but downstream restocking demand was average. After the holiday, arrivals are expected to decline gradually, especially US - sourced arrivals. Upstream refinery outflows are expected to be stable in the short term, with an expected increase in June. Chemical demand is expected to be average. The demand for alkylated oil is weak, and factories are not very willing to increase production in the short term. Although MTBE has some short - term support from terminal restocking demand, it is expected to operate weakly due to oversupply. Some PDH factories may reduce production due to raw material procurement issues. Although there may be short - term restocking demand after the holiday, the LPG market is expected to be weak overall [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Data - From April 25, 2025, to May 6, 2025, the prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as the price of propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil all showed certain fluctuations. For example, on May 6, South China LPG increased by 50 to 5230, East China LPG increased by 10 to 4935, and Shandong LPG decreased by 60 to 4770. The paper import profit and the main basis also changed. The daily change on May 6 showed that East China LPG increased by 10, Shandong LPG decreased by 60, propane CIF Japan decreased by 22, MB propane spot decreased by 17, CP forecast contract price increased by 7, Shandong ether - after carbon four decreased by 130, and Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 100. The main basis decreased by 102 [1] - On Tuesday, for civil LPG, Shandong decreased by 50 to 4770, East China increased by 10 to 4935, and South China increased by 50 to 5230. For imported gas, East China decreased by 5 to 5153, and South China remained unchanged at 5240. Shandong ether - after carbon four decreased by 130 to 4840. The lowest price was Shandong civil LPG at 4770. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 06 contract weakened to 323, and the PG06 - 07 spread was 97, basically unchanged. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on LPG, suggesting that the support from crude oil is weakening, and investors should pay attention to the calendar spread arbitrage. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Prices**: On May 6, 2025, the closing price of PG2506 was 4,400 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the closing price of PG2507 was 4,306 with a daily increase of 0.37%. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of PG2506 was 73,226, an increase of 21,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 60,054, a decrease of 3,341. The trading volume of PG2507 was 20,999, an increase of 11,489, and the open interest was 32,709, an increase of 4,790. [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 800 (previous day: 801), and the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 944 (previous day: 851). [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: This week, the PDH operating rate was 60.1% (last week: 63.2%), the MTBE operating rate was 65.0% (previous: 67.2%), and the alkylation operating rate was 45.2% (previous: 47.8%). [2] **Trend Intensity** The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [9] **Market Information** - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On April 29, 2025, the expected price of propane in the June Saudi CP was 572 USD/ton, up 13 USD/ton from the previous trading day, and the expected price of butane was 552 USD/ton, up 18 USD/ton. The expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 546 USD/ton, and the expected price of butane was 526 USD/ton. [10] - **Domestic PDH Plant Maintenance Plans**: Multiple PDH plants have ongoing or planned maintenance, including those of Puyang Yuandong Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with capacities ranging from 15 to 900,000 tons per year and various start and end times. [10] - **Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plans**: Many LPG plants and related facilities are under maintenance, such as Zhenghua Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye, etc., with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, and maintenance periods. [11]

商 品 研 2025 年 4 月 30 日 LPG：原油大幅下跌，结构继续走强 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao029552@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | 研 | | --- | | 究 | | 所 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2506 | 4,399 | -0.23% | 4,393 | -0.14% | | 期 货 | PG2507 | 4,290 | -0.46% | 4,288 | -0.05% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2506 | 52,103 | -9988 | 63,395 | -3795 | | | PG2507 | 9,510 | 1047 | 27,919 | 2030 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 广州国产气对06合约价差 | 751 | | 741 | | | | 广州进口气对07合约价差 ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 商 品 研 究 LPG：民用气走弱 PG 重心下调 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao029552@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | 研 | | --- | | 究 | | 所 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2506 | 4,433 | -0.67% | 4,402 | -0.70% | | 期 货 | PG2507 | 4,333 | -0.62% | 4,304 | -0.67% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2506 | 52,705 | -20655 | 65,851 | 350 | | | PG2507 | 7,771 | -3112 | 23,799 | 531 | | 价 差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 广州国产气对06合约价差 | 747 | | 737 | | | | 广州进口气对07合约价 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Liquefied Petroleum Gas Weekly Report - Report Date: April 27, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Xinchao - Investment Bank: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the LPG market will temporarily remain in a state of oscillation. From April 18 - 24, the LPG market gradually returned to fundamentals with the continuous impact of tariff adjustments. The international market prices rose, but the domestic market faced weak demand and increasing inventories [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price & Spread - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of April 24, the FEI propane swap increased by 3.4% to $524.86/ton compared to the previous period. The US Gulf MB spot price rose to $456.5/ton due to increased demand from Japan and South Korea. The South China propane frozen cargo arrival price was $654/ton, up $33/ton or 5.38% from the previous period [4]. - **Regional Quotes, Premiums, and Freight**: The report presents historical data on regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates for LPG, including the US to the Far East, the Middle East to the Far East, and the US to Europe [9][10]. - **Domestic Spot and Basis**: In the domestic market, civil gas prices in East China and Shandong continued to decline due to weak demand, while prices in South China were boosted by the strengthening international LPG market. The ether - post - carbon - four market continued to decline due to poor terminal gasoline demand [24]. 3.2 Supply - **US Exports**: The report shows historical data on US propane exports to different regions, including Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea [28][31]. - **Middle East Exports**: It presents historical data on LPG exports from Middle Eastern countries such as Iran, Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar [33][39]. - **Domestic Supply**: This week, China's propane supply was 704,100 tons, a 43.26% increase from the previous week. Domestic refinery product volume decreased by 5.65% to 40,100 tons, while international vessel arrivals increased by 47.88% to 664,000 tons, mainly in South China. Port inventories increased by 6.59% to 2,840,200 tons [48]. 3.3 Demand - **Chemical Demand**: This week, the domestic propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit operating rate was 60.06%, a 3.09% decrease from the previous week. It is expected that the PDH operating rate in China will slightly increase next week. The report also provides historical data on the profits and operating rates of other chemical products such as alkylation, MTBE [52].

机构观点 瑞达期货： OPEC、国际能源署大幅下调全球原油需求增速，国际原油价格下跌。华南液化气市场上涨，华南炼厂 供应减少，码头库存有所回落；沙特5月CP下调，加征关税将使美国丙烷的进口受到影响，进口气成本 上升，港口库有所去化；华南国产气价格环比上涨，PG主力合约期货较华南现货贴水为741左右。LPG 主力合约多空减仓，净空单呈现减少。技术上，PG主力合约上方关注4450附近压力，下方关注4260附 近支撑，短线呈现偏强震荡走势，操作上，短线交易为主。 新湖期货： 近期原油小幅反弹，站上5日均线。随着下游补库结束，现货强势上涨的局面得到扭转，近期价格持续 下跌。2025年5月13日之前到港的美国货物不加征关税，短期码头货源充足。对于5月之后的进口，国内 贸易商可以用中东货替代美国货，因贸易摩擦，第二季度进口量仍存在下滑预期。另一方面，需求端也 存在下滑预期，PDH、轻烃裂解等装置，因原料不足，将关停或者降负，这部分需求减量将匹配进口量 的下降。供需双减，基本面矛盾不大。原油价格受关税政策压制，此轮反弹是情绪修复，尚未形成上涨 趋势，且仓单充足，预期PG上方空间不大。 消息面 新奥股份近日与阿布扎比国家石油 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue continues to disrupt the market, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite, but the escalation of China-US tariffs is beneficial for gold. - The US dollar index has weakened due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries by Trump, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - The stock index futures market has been boosted by China's tariff countermeasures against the US, but the subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - The commodity market is generally under pressure. The prices of palm oil, coal, iron ore, and some energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and tariff policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Event: Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10%. - Review: Gold prices soared by over 3%, once rising by over $100, setting a record for the largest single - day increase. The suspension of tariffs increased market risk appetite, but the escalation of China - US tariffs is beneficial for gold. Gold is a good tool to hedge against the decline in the US dollar's credit. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term volatile market [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Event: Summers warned that the US is far from out of danger and has lost a lot of credibility. The Fed meeting minutes showed that the US economy faces risks. Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries. - Review: The suspension of tariffs led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite, causing the US dollar index to weaken. The reciprocal tariffs are in a temporary adjustment phase, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation is slightly high and economic uncertainty has increased. Trump suspended tariffs on some countries but raised tariffs on China to 125%. - Review: The China - US tariff negotiation is at a deadlock, and policy uncertainty remains high. The financial market is volatile, and the risk of a liquidity shock has not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach and avoid chasing high prices [20][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Event: The Chinese Premier held a symposium on the economic situation. China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. - Review: The A - share market rebounded, and market sentiment was boosted. However, subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - averse approach in the short term [23][24][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Event: China released a white paper on China - US economic and trade relations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 111 billion yuan. - Review: The main logic of the treasury bond market is clear. The probability of a short - term easing of trade conflicts is low, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is difficult to be falsified. The upward trend of treasury bonds is likely to continue. - Investment advice: Hold positions and wait for the implementation of loose policies, or add positions on dips [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Event: Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export tariffs to 0% to offset the impact of US tariffs. - Review: The global market sentiment is low, and the price of palm oil has fallen. China's counter - tariffs on the US may be beneficial for far - month soybean oil. The possibility of Indonesia reducing palm oil export tariffs is low. - Investment advice: Consider closing previous short positions and pay attention to the MPOB report [30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Event: As of the end of March, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased, and India's cotton planting area may increase. The CCI has purchased a large amount of cotton, and its sales volume is not high. - Review: The CCI's purchase and sales situation, as well as the trade war, may affect India's cotton production, consumption, and import estimates. The price of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen, but the decline may slow down. - Investment advice: The cotton price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to macro - policies, planting, weather, and industry conditions in major producing countries [32][35][37]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Event: China's coal demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025. - Review: The coal price has been relatively stable. The power plant's inventory is at a neutral level, and the price is expected to be supported in May but lacks elasticity. - Investment advice: The power plant may replenish coal inventory in May, but the price increase is limited [38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Event: JFE Steel in Japan plans to shut down a blast furnace, reducing its annual crude steel production capacity by about 4 million tons. - Review: The black metal market has continued to decline, but the short - term deterioration of fundamentals is not severe. Pay attention to the risk of liquidity. - Investment advice: Maintain a bearish approach and wait for a better opportunity to short after a rebound [39][40][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Event: The coking coal market in East China has remained stable. Some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced production, and downstream coke enterprises have started to increase prices. - Review: The coking coal spot market has improved, but the futures market faces pressure. The coke spot market may continue to increase prices, but the medium - long - term supply is expected to be loose. - Investment advice: The spot market has stabilized, but the futures market faces pressure from subsequent demand and warehouse receipts [42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Event: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased significantly, but inventory has only decreased slightly. - Review: High raw material prices and weak downstream demand have led to a decrease in the operating rate. The futures price difference between corn starch and corn is expected to remain stable. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 price difference is expected to remain around the normal processing fee of 380 yuan [44][45][47]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Event: The inventory at northern ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the price of corn in the production area is relatively firm. - Review: The outflow of corn from Northeast China has accelerated, and the weak basis has suppressed the futures price. The 07 contract is considered undervalued. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to whether the acceleration of inventory reduction in Northeast China can boost trader sentiment [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Event: The retail sales of passenger cars in March increased significantly year - on - year. - Review: The steel price has rebounded, and market sentiment has improved. However, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is declining slowly. - Investment advice: Adopt a cautious approach in the short term and hedge on the spot market when prices are high [49][50][51]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Event: The sales volume of three major listed pig enterprises increased in March, and the average selling price slightly increased. - Review: The short - term fluctuation of pig prices has increased, but it will eventually return to the fundamental situation. The spot price may face downward pressure. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Event: Yunnan Nengtou Group's Yongchang Silicon's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon project was put into operation. Some production capacity in Xinjiang was reduced, and some new production capacity in the southwest is expected to be put into operation. - Review: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change. - Investment advice: The futures price may range from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [55][56][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Event: The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the price of refined lead decreased. - Review: The lead price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Although the medium - term outlook is bullish, macro risks have not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for buying opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [58][59][60]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Event: The blockade of Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru was suspended. Codelco plans to significantly increase copper production this year. Indonesia will increase mining royalties. - Review: The short - term macro factors have a relatively uncertain impact on copper prices. The short - term supply and demand in China are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper [61][62][64]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Event: The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. - Review: The zinc price is mainly affected by macro factors. The market is cautious, and the export of zinc may be suppressed. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [65][66][67]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Event: An Australian company produced the first batch of lithium carbonate in Argentina. Argentina plans to increase lithium production by 75% in 2025. - Review: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price may continue to decline in the long term. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Event: Indonesia will increase mining and coal royalties in the second week of April. - Review: The nickel price has slightly decreased, and the cost is expected to increase marginally. The market may digest negative sentiment. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips after the release of negative sentiment [71][72]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports to 84%. The US C3 inventory started to accumulate. - Review: The PG price has decreased, but it may strengthen due to the increase in tariffs and the recovery of crude oil prices. However, policy uncertainty should be noted. - Investment advice: The domestic market may experience a valuation - repair market, but reduce risk exposure and participate cautiously [73][74][75]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Event: The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs. - Review: The oil price has rebounded, but there is still a risk of decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff issue and the OPEC+ production policy. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short term and still has a downward risk [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - Event: The tariff war has escalated, and the demand for PTA is uncertain. - Review: The PTA price has decreased, and the demand for polyester is affected by tariffs. The impact on PTA pricing is relatively lagged. - Investment advice: The PTA price will mainly follow the crude oil price in the short term and is expected to be weakly volatile [77][78]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Event: The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. - Review: The styrene price has reached a new low and then rebounded. The downstream inventory may accumulate, and the production profit may not be sustainable. - Investment advice: The eb - bz spread may expand in the short term and contract in the long term [78][79]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Event: The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the supply was stable while the demand was weak. - Review: The caustic soda price is expected to decline, and the market is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [80][82][83]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - Event: The price of imported wood pulp decreased. - Review: The pulp price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [84]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - Event: The spot price of PVC powder decreased. - Review: The PVC price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Event: The export price of bottle chips decreased, and a polyester bottle chip device in East China restarted. - Review: The bottle chip price has decreased, and the processing fee has been passively repaired, but it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range. - Investment advice: The bottle chip price will follow the cost side and be weakly volatile in the short term [86][88][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Event: The price of soda ash in the East China market was adjusted slightly. - Review: The soda ash price is in a low - level oscillation, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is general. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium term [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Event: The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. - Review: The float glass price is mainly affected by demand. Although there may be an improvement in the second - quarter demand, the upward space is limited. - Investment advice: The float glass price will be in a low - level range in the short term. Pay attention to buying opportunities on large dips [91][92][93].