Core Insights - The demand for paper products has evolved significantly, with a notable increase in the variety of products available, reflecting a shift from basic needs to more specialized, functional options [1] - Consumer preferences are increasingly leaning towards innovative and health-oriented paper products, such as portable wet wipes and scented tissues, indicating a trend towards a more refined lifestyle [1] - The environmental impact of traditional paper production is a growing concern, prompting a shift towards sustainable materials like bamboo pulp [2] Group 1 - The sales volume of hanging tissue paper has increased by 177% year-on-year since September, while facial tissues have seen a 101% increase, indicating a robust growth in the paper product market [1] - Female consumers account for over 60% of the sales volume in household paper products, particularly favoring skincare-integrated items like cream tissues and facial wipes [1] - Male consumers show a preference for products that emphasize cleaning efficiency and convenience, such as wet toilet paper and wet wipes [1] Group 2 - The transition towards sustainable raw materials, such as bamboo pulp, is crucial for the industry, with many companies beginning to develop bamboo pulp paper lines [2] - The preference index for unbleached bamboo pulp tissue is highest among consumers aged 46 to 55, highlighting a market opportunity for eco-friendly products [2] - The positive reception of natural paper products by the market creates favorable conditions for the promotion of bamboo pulp paper [2]

Group 1: Cultural Paper - The average market price of 70g wood pulp high white double glue paper as of October 29 is 4735 CNY/ton, a decrease of 66 CNY/ton or 1.37% month-on-month [1] - New production capacity of 400,000 tons in South China is gradually being released, increasing local supply pressure and negatively impacting paper prices [1] - Demand remains weak with limited support for paper prices from essential needs, as only a few units have issued tender announcements this month [1] Group 2: White Cardboard - The average market price of 250-400g flat white cardboard as of October 29 is 4054 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.30% from September [2] - Paper manufacturers continue to raise prices, with a new price increase notice issued on the 22nd, planning to raise prices by 200 CNY/ton [2] - Sufficient prior orders for production enterprises and the absence of new domestic capacity release support a bullish market sentiment [2] Group 3: Corrugated Paper - The average market price of AA-grade corrugated paper (120g) as of October 29 is 2962 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 6.51% and a year-on-year increase of 12.88% [3] - Tight performance in the waste paper market has led to increased procurement costs for paper manufacturers, prompting multiple price increases to alleviate losses [3] - Downstream packaging companies are stocking up due to concerns over rising prices, further reducing inventory pressure for paper manufacturers [3] Group 4: Wood Pulp - The average price of imported wood pulp in October shows mixed trends, with market transactions primarily driven by essential needs [4] - The continuous price increase of broadleaf pulp in the external market provides cost support, while domestic demand remains weak [4] - The tightening of import inspections for recycled fiber pulp has shifted some demand towards virgin pulp, leading to price increases [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 01 contract was 5,472 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,408 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.17%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 4,900 - 6,500 yuan/ton, with the price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing quotation was 5,550 yuan/ton [7]. - Production and Inventory: In September, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 3.8% and hardwood pulp up 11.8%. Shipments to the Chinese market continued to grow. In October, the European wood pulp inventory was 703,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The European wood pulp consumption was 844,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. As of November 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.9766 million tons, a 4.22% increase from the previous week [7]. - Downstream Paper: The performance of downstream base paper remained differentiated. The packaging paper market continued to be favorable, while the prices of other base papers were stable. The improvement of social orders for offset paper was limited, and the publishing tenders continued. Pay attention to the cost digestion performance of downstream paper mills, and pulp is under pressure at the previous high [7]. Group 3: Industry News - On November 17, Hong Kong - listed paper stocks rose. Chenming Paper led with a gain of over 6%, Nine Dragons Paper rose over 5%, and Lee & Man Paper rose nearly 3%. Since November, the price increase wave in the domestic paper industry has continued to heat up. Shanying Paper and Nine Dragons Paper have raised prices, and downstream cardboard factories in Zhejiang and Hunan have responded with price increases. However, industry insiders pointed out that the price increase of packaging paper may not be sustainable due to the falling prices of bulk paper materials and the oversupply situation [8].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 01 contract was 5474 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5474 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.00%. [7] - Shandong Wood Pulp Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 4900 - 6500 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5550 yuan/ton. [7] - International News: Finnforest Metsa notified Chinese customers that the November quotation of softwood pulp increased by $20. In September, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's 20 pulp - producing countries increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 3.8% and hardwood pulp up 11.8%. Shipments to the Chinese market continued to grow. [7] - European Market: In October, the European wood pulp inventory was 703,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The consumption was 844,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. [7] - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.9766 million tons, an increase of 4.22% from the previous week. [7] - Downstream Market: The performance of downstream base paper remained differentiated. The packaging paper market continued to be favorable, while the prices of other base papers were stable. The improvement of social orders for offset paper was limited, and publishing tenders continued. [7] Group 3: Industry News - Hong Kong Stock Market: On November 17, Hong Kong paper stocks rose. Chenming Paper led with a gain of over 6%, Nine Dragons Paper rose over 5%, and Lee & Man Paper rose nearly 3%. [8] - Price Increase: Since November, the price increase wave in the domestic paper industry has intensified. Shanying Paper raised the prices of products such as red fir paper and corrugated paper by 30 - 100 yuan/ton, and the core product categories in Guangdong and Zhejiang bases increased by 50 yuan/ton. Nine Dragons Paper and other enterprises followed suit. [8] - Market Outlook: Driven by the packaging demand during the "Double Eleven" period, the price increase of packaging paper was supported, but industry insiders pointed out that the price increase might not be sustainable due to the oversupply of bulk paper materials. [8]

2025 年 11月 17 日 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 基本面跟踪 表 1: 基本面数据(元/吨) | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/13 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 | 4475 | 64475 | 20 0 | | | | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4650 | 4650 | 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天阳 | 4450 | 4450 | 9 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | O | | | | 含税收入 | 4731 | 4731 | 0 | | | 税前必 | 含税成本 | 5132 | 5120 | 12 | | | | 税前毛利 | -401 | -389 | -12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The pulp market is expected to undergo high - level consolidation in the short term. The futures market is dominated by financial attributes, while the spot market remains firm due to cost support and limited available supply. It is recommended to monitor the inventory reduction pace and the change in the operating rate of downstream paper mills [98]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of November 13, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port increased by 6.3 tons week - on - week, a 12.5% rise; Qingdao Port's inventory rose by 5.0 tons, a 3.7% increase; and Gaolan Port's inventory decreased by 1.5 tons, a 26.8% decline. The total inventory of major Chinese pulp ports increased by 10.2 tons, a 5.1% rise [5][6]. - From January to September 2025, Finns Group reported a comparable operating loss of 27 million euros [6]. - Liaoning Yusen's 185,000 - ton second - phase project of household paper is expected to be put into production by the end of September next year [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On November 14, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 70 yuan/ton, down 33.96% week - on - week and 80.77% year - on - year; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 80 yuan/ton, up 72.79% week - on - week and 6.98% year - on - year; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 150 yuan/ton, down 62.50% week - on - week and 66.67% year - on - year [14]. - On November 14, 2025, the 01 - 03 month - spread was 32 yuan/ton, up 300.00% week - on - week; the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 14 yuan/ton, down 16.67% week - on - week [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - On November 14, 2025, the price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp was 1,150 yuan/ton, down 8.00% week - on - week and 34.29% year - on - year; the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 17.65% week - on - week and down 23.08% year - on - year [25]. - The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp continued to recover. In November, the import price of wood pulp was unclear, and paper mills were cautious [29]. - The price of imported coniferous pulp spot rose with the market, but paper mills were cautious in signing orders, and market transactions were mainly small orders [33]. - The price of imported broad - leaf pulp rose significantly, with an expected increase in import cost and a bullish market sentiment [36]. - The prices of Venus and Kunhe pulp on November 14, 2025, were 5,100 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [41]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China was generally stable this week, with individual increases [43]. - Domestic broad - leaf pulp prices rose this period, while the operating rate and output decreased; the operating rate and output of chemimechanical pulp increased [47]. - In September, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month, while the inventory days of coniferous pulp increased [51][52]. - In August, the shipment volume of W20 coniferous pulp was low, and the inventory was high; the shipment volume of broad - leaf pulp remained high, but the inventory days were low [56]. - In August, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, and Finland to China decreased month - on - month; in September, Finland's export volume to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, Chile's export volume to China increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [62]. - In September, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, Brazil's export volume decreased slightly month - on - month [63]. - In September, China's pulp import volume increased overall, with coniferous pulp up 12.52% month - on - month, broad - leaf pulp up 7.81% month - on - month, and chemimechanical pulp up 31.43% month - on - month [67]. 3.3.3 Demand - The average price of offset paper was basically stable, with poor profitability. Downstream consumption was scattered, but some users stocked up due to cost support [71]. - The average price of coated paper was stable, with a slight decrease in supply. The supply - demand relationship did not improve significantly [75]. - The price of white cardboard continued to rise. Although the production and sales situation changed little, the shipment increased in some local markets [79]. - The price of household paper was stable, with weak terminal demand and limited support from pulp prices [83]. - In October, the retail sales of cultural office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [87]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 220,400 tons, down 1.66% week - on - week and 39.26% year - on - year [90]. - The port inventory was at a medium level this year, showing a slight accumulation trend. Qingdao Port's inventory shifted to an accumulation trend, and Changshu Port's inventory showed a narrow - range accumulation trend [95].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of pulp futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [7]. - The fundamentals of double - offset paper futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [18]. 3. Summary by Variety Pulp - **Demand**: Demand is flat, with only rigid demand replenishment. Terminal orders in the downstream base paper market are limited, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. Only sporadic publishing tenders in the cultural paper field have slightly boosted market confidence, but demand has not improved substantially. The overall operating rate of downstream finished paper has declined [5]. - **Supply**: Supply is relatively abundant. Although the domestic pulp import volume decreased in October, port inventories are still ample. Overseas prices have fluctuated, but there is no shortage of supply [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 211.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.2 million tons or 5.1%. The inventory shifted from narrow - range destocking to high - level accumulation [5]. - **Profit**: Paper mill profits continue to decline. Although the pulp futures market rebounded, weak downstream demand has led to a lack of support for price increases in the finished paper market, and the industry profit is contracting [6]. Double - offset Paper - **Demand**: Demand remains weak. This week, the domestic sales volume of double - offset paper was 169.6 thousand tons. Only sporadic orders were released in the publishing field, and social printing demand was sluggish. The market transaction was light, and only some downstream enterprises replenished inventory moderately [17]. - **Supply**: Supply increased slightly. This week, the operating rate of double - offset paper was 51.40%, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 percentage points, but the growth rate narrowed. The industry output reached 175.6 thousand tons, and imports remained at a low level [17]. - **Inventory**: Inventory decreased from an increase but the pressure still exists. This week, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 0.66% compared with last week. Although paper mill inventories decreased slightly, the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated [17]. - **Profit**: The industry is still in a loss state. Although some paper mills' planned price increases may offset cost pressure slightly, the industry has been in a loss situation since October, and rising costs and weak demand have failed to reverse the loss pattern [17]. Waste Paper - **Demand**: Demand is strong and rising. The e - commerce festival and year - end promotions have led to concentrated procurement by downstream cardboard and carton factories. The seasonal recovery of cultural paper has also increased the demand for waste paper, driving up the procurement volume of waste cartons. The operating rate of paper mills exceeded 85%, and leading paper mills have raised purchase prices [26]. - **Supply**: Supply is continuously tight. The recycling volume of waste cartons has decreased in many domestic areas, and import restrictions and price increases of imported recycled pulp have increased the demand for domestic waste cartons. Some paper mills' maintenance has further exacerbated the supply gap [26]. - **Inventory**: Overall, there is a narrow - range destocking trend. As of November 6, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 million tons or 2.6%. Downstream cardboard factories' raw material inventories are mostly at medium - to - high levels, while paper mills' raw material inventories are generally low [26]. - **Profit**: Industry profits are clearly divided. The cost pressure of corrugated paper and boxboard paper has increased, and gross profit has shrunk. However, the demand for yarn tube paper is good, and the gross profit of some high - end paper types has remained at a good level [27]. Boxboard Paper (Packaging Paper) - **Demand**: Demand shows resilience. The e - commerce replenishment demand after the "Double 11" promotion and the subsequent Chinese New Year goods stocking demand support the demand for boxboard paper. Downstream cardboard factories have a certain demand for boxboard paper, driving some paper mills to raise prices [36]. - **Supply**: Supply is structurally tightened. Leading paper mills such as Nine Dragons and Shanying have raised prices, but due to the shortage of raw material waste paper, some medium - and large - sized paper mills in East and South China have announced machine shutdowns for maintenance in mid - November, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply [36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory turnover is 10.5 days, which is relatively controllable. However, the high - level raw material inventories of downstream cardboard factories have restricted their replenishment, and the low raw material inventories of paper mills have affected the production and stocking rhythm of boxboard paper [36]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit is 270 yuan, and profitability has some support. The price increase of boxboard paper and the rising cost of raw material waste yellow board paper have affected the profit margin, which is in a moderate recovery state [36].

Group 1 - Company has been steadily expanding for thirty years, establishing a more complete industrial chain, and is currently the world's largest paper production group and a leader in the integrated pulp and paper industry [1] - The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, China, with a current design capacity of over 23 million tons of paper [1] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% in revenue over the past ten years, with projected revenue of 63.24 billion in FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [2] Group 2 - The demand for corrugated box paper is expected to remain stable, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.3% over the past five years [3] - The industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, with supply-demand imbalances leading to short-term price pressures, but the situation is expected to improve as smaller capacities exit the market [3] - The company has been expanding its production capacity, with a design capacity nearing 29 million tons by June 30, 2025, and a CAGR of 9% in new paper production capacity from FY2022 to FY2025 [4] Group 3 - The company is focusing on the integrated development of pulp and paper, with significant results in its industrial chain layout, including plans for 700,000 tons of recycled pulp capacity and over 2 million tons of wood pulp capacity by the end of FY2025 [4] - The company is diversifying its product structure by expanding high-end products such as high-grade kraft paper and white cardboard, leading to a noticeable decrease in per-ton paper costs [4] - The company aims to achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 1.02 million tons of raw materials by 2027, which will help minimize waste paper procurement costs and ensure stable production quality [4]

Core Points - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) took place in Shanghai from November 5 to 10, emphasizing green and low-carbon initiatives [1] - Gold East Paper, a subsidiary of the Nine Dragons Paper Holdings, showcased its zero-carbon office paper and other eco-friendly products at the expo [2][3] - The company plans to launch a 50 MW rooftop distributed photovoltaic project in 2024, aiming to generate over 50 million kWh of solar power annually, reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 40,000 tons [3] - Evonik Industries introduced 11 new products in the fine chemical sector, with four being global debuts, highlighting international collaboration and innovation [4] - COSCO Shipping's logistics services facilitated the transportation of South American products to Shanghai, enhancing global supply chain efficiency [5] - The Zhenjiang Economic Development Zone aims to attract foreign investment, with a reported 39% share of the city's foreign capital in 2024, and has cumulatively utilized over $10 billion in foreign investment [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of Hong Kong paper stocks, with notable increases in share prices for several companies [1] Group 2 - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings saw its stock price rise by over 10% [1] - Chenming Paper Holdings also experienced a stock price increase of over 10% [1] - Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing's stock rose by more than 4% [1]