Report Industry Investment Rating The provided document does not contain information on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The tariff shock has eased, and copper prices have returned to fundamentals. The 90 - day tariff suspension will continue to affect the copper market, with overseas rush - to - export continuing and domestic export orders somewhat restricted. - The current copper consumption shows a structurally differentiated characteristic, with the growth of emerging sectors' demand contrasting sharply with the weakness of traditional real estate. - The global copper market is expected to have a larger supply surplus in 2025 compared to 2024, with the supply surplus increasing from 170,000 tons to 338,000 tons [101][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Copper Market Overview - **Price Fluctuations**: On April 2, due to the US imposing reciprocal tariffs globally, copper prices plummeted. The price dropped from $9,721/ton on April 2 to $8,105/ton on April 7, a decline of 16.6%. After Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on 75 countries on April 9, prices rebounded. By April 25, LME copper prices reached a maximum of $9,481.5/ton, and domestic prices reached 78,520 yuan/ton, almost recovering all the losses caused by the tariff increase [3][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, with processing fees dropping to - $42/ton. However, smelters have no plans to cut production. The proportion of scrap - copper - produced blister copper has increased to around 20%. Global consumption has advanced due to Trump's tariff policy. In May, overall consumption is expected to be high at the beginning and low at the end, with inventory likely to continue to decline slightly, and the spot premium remaining firm [4][14]. II. Market Section 1. Market Review - **Price and Inventory**: In April, due to the tariff policy, copper prices first fell and then rebounded. Domestic buying was strong, and the spot premium rose. In April 2025, global visible inventory decreased by 119,900 tons compared to March, reaching 604,000 tons. Chinese social inventory decreased by 155,500 tons, reaching 181,700 tons, while bonded - area inventory increased by 6,200 tons to 85,100 tons [11][12]. - **Consumption Drivers**: The significant increase in consumption in April was due to suppressed downstream procurement demand in March, increased procurement and inventory - building demand after the price drop, and unaffected export orders. Terminal consumption showed structural differentiation, with significant growth in wire and cable, photovoltaic, and export sectors, while traditional real estate was weak [12]. 2. Market Outlook - **Macro Factors**: During the May Day holiday, the release of important economic data such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI and the euro - zone manufacturing PMI may have a significant impact on copper prices. Trump's tariff policy remains unclear and may still impact the market [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and processing fees are expected to continue to decline. The 90 - day tariff suspension will continue to affect the market, with overseas rush - to - export continuing. The situation of the import window depends on domestic consumption in May and June [14]. - **Price Forecast**: If re - export orders can still be issued, copper prices will continue to consolidate, mainly in the range of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. If re - export orders are completely prohibited, prices will return to 73,000 yuan/ton. In the long term, the overall center of copper prices will move down, but the decline may not be smooth before the US tariff policy is clear [5][15]. III. Copper Mine Production is Downgraded, and Copper Supply Growth is Flat with 2024 1. Global Copper Mine Production - **Production Forecast**: After the release of major companies' 2024 annual reports, the market has significantly downgraded the expected copper concentrate production for 2025. The expected copper mine supply increment in 2025 has been reduced from 500,000 tons to 200,000 tons, and the growth rate has dropped from 2.2% to 0.88% [20]. - **Company - Specific Production**: Different mining companies have different production trends in 2024 and 2025. For example, Anglo American's production decreased in 2024 and is expected to further decline in 2025, while MMG's production increased in 2024 and is expected to continue to rise in 2025 [21][24]. 2. Global Refined Copper Production - **Supply and Demand Balance**: In February 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 61,000 tons. The first two months of this year had a supply surplus of 150,000 tons, similar to the same period last year [45]. - **Processing Fees and Production**: The long - term copper concentrate processing fee for 2025 between overseas mines and Chinese smelters is at a record low. As of April 25, the import processing fee has dropped to - $42.52/ton. Despite losses, smelters generally have no plans to cut production [45][47]. - **Waste Copper Supply**: Waste copper has become a key supplement to raw materials. From January to February 2025, the supply of domestic waste copper increased by 226,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.79%. In March, China imported 189,700 tons of waste copper, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [47]. IV. Consumption Analysis 1. Overseas Consumption - **US Consumption**: The US is in the stage of rush - to - import, and the replenishment cycle may last until July. Due to tariff disturbances, US consumption has advanced, but consumer confidence is declining, and consumption may decline more rapidly after the concentrated replenishment ends [63]. - **European Consumption**: After continuous interest rate cuts, the euro - zone manufacturing PMI rebounded in April, but the comprehensive PMI and service PMI declined. Consumer confidence is also low, and consumption expenditure is restricted [64]. - **Emerging Economies**: Emerging economies are in a 90 - day rush - to - export stage. Countries with high tariff - levying ratios will experience an export consumption boom during this period, but the situation after July depends on US tariff policies [64]. 2. Domestic Consumption - **Real Estate**: From January to March 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing and the completion area of housing decreased year - on - year, although the decline narrowed. Real estate will continue to drag down electrolytic copper consumption [79]. - **Power Grid**: The planned investment of the two major power grid companies in 2025 increased by 6.7% compared to 2024. From January to March, the power grid investment increased by 24.8% year - on - year, and the wire and cable industry's copper consumption increased significantly [84]. - **Home Appliances**: In March 2025, the production and sales of household air - conditioners increased year - on - year. The consumption of air - conditioners is shifting from exports to domestic sales, but there are concerns about consumer waiting due to subsidies [86][87]. - **Automobiles**: From January to March 2025, China's automobile production increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicles growing rapidly. The substitution of new energy vehicles for traditional fuel vehicles will continue [89]. - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: From January to March 2025, photovoltaic installation increased year - on - year, and the industry is in a rush - to - install period. Wind power installation decreased slightly, but the annual new - installation scale is expected to increase [95]. 3. Consumption Summary - In the 90 - day period, US consumption may decline rapidly after the concentrated replenishment ends. After the sharp decline in copper prices in early April, domestic consumption increased rapidly, with significant growth in wire and cable, photovoltaic, and export sectors, while real estate continued to drag down the market [96][97]. V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Global Copper Supply - Demand**: The global copper market is expected to have a larger supply surplus in 2025 compared to 2024, with the supply surplus increasing from 170,000 tons to 338,000 tons. The growth rate of copper mine production in 2025 is expected to be 0.88%, and the consumption growth rate is expected to be 2% [101][102]. - **China's Refined Copper Supply - Demand**: China's refined copper consumption is expected to grow by 2 - 2.6% in 2025. The supply - demand balance shows a certain degree of fluctuation in different months [105].

智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）4月份铜产量大约10.5万吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is not explicitly provided in the report. However, the report suggests a "buy on dips" hedging strategy, indicating a generally positive outlook. [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is in a volatile and strengthening pattern due to factors such as lower TC prices for smelting enterprises and a more relaxed attitude towards tariff policies and the Fed Chairman's stance. It is recommended to mainly adopt a buy - on - dips hedging strategy, while arbitrage is on hold and a short put option at 74,000 yuan/ton is suggested. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - On April 28, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,510 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 77,580 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 77,740 yuan/ton and closed at 77,630 yuan/ton, a 0.34% increase from the afternoon close. [1] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The spot trading sentiment was active. Near the May Day holiday, the slightly lower price led downstream to pick up goods actively. The sellers' prices were the same as last week, and low - priced goods had more transactions. Downstream continued to bargain for purchases. [2] 3.2 Key Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The US Treasury increased its Q2 borrowing scale forecast to $514 billion. The "X - day" for the debt ceiling issue will be announced soon. Putin declared a 72 - hour cease - fire during the Victory Day celebration. The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral agreement this week. The Chinese central bank said it would cut reserve requirements and interest rates in a timely manner and create new structural monetary policy tools. [3] 3.2.2 Mine End - Panama's president declared that the closed Cobre copper mine "belongs to the country," and restarting negotiations must be government - led. The closure in 2023 caused a 2% drop in Panama's GDP, and First Quantum's stock price fell 3%. Southern Copper's Q1 2025 copper production was 24.2 tons, up from 24.0679 tons in the same period last year. The Antamina copper mine is gradually resuming operations. [4] 3.2.3 Smelting and Import - China Resources Recycling Group Non - ferrous Metals Investment Co., Ltd. was established to address resource shortages and industrial fragmentation. As of the week ending April 22, the net long position of COMEX copper futures held by funds rebounded to 24,765 lots. [5] 3.2.4 Consumption - The downstream processing enterprises' procurement strategies were conservative. Pre - holiday stocking demand supported the spot market, and some enterprises replenished inventory at low prices. The supply of recycled copper raw materials was tight, and non - deliverable brands and non - standard copper materials had active transactions. [6] 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 25.00 tons to 202,800 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 4,704 tons to 36,884 tons. On April 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 15.51 million tons, a decrease of 2.66 million tons from the previous week. [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment decisions. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows risk preference recovery, and silver stabilizes and rebounds. The trend intensities for both are neutral [5][6]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices are supported by inventory reduction; aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation; zinc is in range consolidation; lead has a narrow - range oscillation; nickel may have a narrow - range oscillation with converging upside and downside space; stainless steel has a game between cost and negative feedback on the disk; tin has a slight repair; industrial silicon has a weak oscillation due to weak demand; and alumina is still seeking a bottom [2][10][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude - related products like fuel oil and asphalt have different trends; PTA, MEG, and other chemicals have specific trading strategies such as PTA's month - spread reverse arbitrage and going long on PTA and short on MEG [2][64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Corn oscillates strongly; sugar oscillates weakly; cotton's rebound is restricted by demand; and other agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's risk preference rebounds, and silver stabilizes and recovers. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2506 was 780.04 with a - 0.91% daily change, and沪银2506 was 8168 with a - 1.35% daily change. The trend intensities for both are 0 [5][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction supports prices. The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 77,580 with a 0.18% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [10]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum oscillates within a range, and alumina continues to seek a bottom. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 19935, and沪氧化铝主力合约 was 2862. The trend intensities for both are 0 [13]. - **Zinc**: It is in range consolidation. The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22520 with a - 1.01% daily change. The trend intensity is 0 [16]. - **Lead**: It has a narrow - range oscillation. The closing price of沪铅主力 was 17005 with a 0.35% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [19]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel may have a narrow - range oscillation, and stainless steel has a game between cost and negative feedback. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 124,690, and不锈钢主力 was 12,765. The trend intensities for both are 0 [21][22]. - **Tin**: It has a slight repair. The closing price of沪锡主力 was 262,840 with a 1.26% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [25][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a weak oscillation due to weak demand, and polysilicon is also weak due to news fermentation. The closing price of Si2506 was 8,800, and PS2506 was 37,780. The trend intensities for both are - 1 [32][33]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Cost support weakens, and attention should be paid to purchasing demand under high basis. The closing price of 2507 contract was 66,960. The trend intensity is 0 [36][37]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The closing price of 12509 was 710.5 with a 0.21% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [40][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The expectation of production restriction increases, and there is a short - term rebound. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,129 with a 0.61% daily increase, and HC2510 was 3,237 with a 0.84% daily increase. The trend intensities for both are 1 [43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: They are in low - level oscillations. The closing price of硅铁2506 was 5648, and锰硅2506 was 5746. The trend intensities for both are 0 [48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are affected by production - restriction news and have wide - range oscillations. The closing price of JM2509 was 947 with a - 0.94% daily change, and J2509 was 1562 with a - 0.26% daily change. The trend intensities for both are 0 [51]. - **Steam Coal**: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it oscillates weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [55]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The closing price of FG509 was 1122 with a - 0.53% daily change. The trend intensity is 0 [59][60]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX's processing fee expands; PTA has a month - spread reverse arbitrage; and the strategy is to go long on PTA and short on MEG. The closing price of PX主力 was 6230, PTA主力 was 4400, and MEG主力 was 4160. The trend intensities for all are 0 [64][66]. - **Rubber**: It oscillates. The closing price of the rubber主力 was 14,730 (daily) and 14,735 (night). The trend intensity is 0 [70][72]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn oscillates strongly; sugar oscillates weakly; soybean meal may stop falling gradually; and other products have their own price trends [2][4]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Eggs have a weak oscillation, and pigs start a phased inventory reduction [2][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting set the policy direction after the change in the external environment. In the short - term, the focus is on accelerating the implementation of previously established policies, with sufficient policy reserves for potential additional hedging in the future. High - frequency data shows that foreign trade impact is increasing, and domestic real - estate sales are under pressure. It is expected that the macro data in April will weaken moderately. Near - term policies will focus on the implementation of structural policy tools emphasized in the Politburo meeting. Later, when the real impact of trade frictions on the economy and the direction of tariffs are clearer, domestic policies may be further strengthened, including the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [8]. - Gold's current adjustment is tactical, and its strategic upward trend is unlikely to end easily. The short - term performance of gold is highly affected by the US tariff negotiation process. Even if gold prices fall due to the US loosening on tariffs, it may indicate that the US economy has been affected by tariffs, and the recession - interest rate cut chain may fuel gold's rebound in the second quarter [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Risk preference is rising. The adjustment is tactical, and the strategic upward trend is difficult to end. The short - term performance is affected by US tariff negotiations. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2506 was 780.04, with a daily decline of 0.91%, and the night - session closing price was 793.68, with a night - session increase of 1.57%. The trend strength is 0 [9][13][17]. - **Silver**: It is stabilizing and rebounding. Yesterday, the closing price of沪银2506 was 8168, with a daily decline of 1.35%, and the night - session closing price was 8244.00, with a night - session increase of 0.48%. The trend strength is 0 [13][17]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction supports prices. Yesterday, the closing price of the沪铜主力合约 was 77,580, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The trend strength is 0 [13][21]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The沪铝主力合约 closed at 19935, down 95. The trend strength is 0 [13][24]. - **Alumina**: It is still searching for a bottom. The沪氧化铝主力合约 closed at 2862. The trend strength is 0 [13][24]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound consolidation. The沪锌主力 closed at 22520, down 1.01%. The trend strength is 0 [13][27]. - **Lead**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The沪铅主力 closed at 17005, up 0.35%. The trend strength is 0 [13][30]. - **Nickel**: The upward and downward spaces are converging, and the nickel price may oscillate in a narrow range. The沪镍主力 closed at 124,690, down 1,110. The trend strength is 0 [13][32][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: Spot prices are falling to correct the basis, and there is a game between cost and negative feedback on the disk. The不锈钢主力 closed at 12,765, up 85. The trend strength is 0 [13][33]. - **Tin**: It is slightly recovering. The沪锡主力 closed at 262,840, up 1.26%. The trend strength is 0 [13][36][37]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Demand is weak, and the disk is weakly oscillating. The Si2506 closed at 8,800, up 20. The trend strength is - 1 [13][43][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The news is fermenting, and the disk is also weakly oscillating. The PS2506 closed at 37,780, down 610. The trend strength is - 1 [13][44]. 3.4 Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening. Attention should be paid to the purchasing demand under the high basis. The 2507 contract closed at 66,960, down 1,220. The trend strength is 0 [13][47][48]. 3.5 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The futures closed at 710.5, up 1.5. The trend strength is 0 [13][51][52]. - **Rebar**: The expectation of production cuts is rising, and there is a short - term rebound. The RB2510 closed at 3,129, up 19. The trend strength is 1 [13][54][55]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The expectation of production cuts is rising, and there is a short - term rebound. The HC2510 closed at 3,237, up 27. The trend strength is 1 [13][54][55]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It is oscillating at a low level. The硅铁2506 closed at 5648, up 8. The trend strength is 0 [13][59]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: It is oscillating at a low level. The锰硅2506 closed at 5746, up 4. The trend strength is 0 [13][59]. - **Coke**: It is affected by production - cut news and is in a wide - range oscillation. The J2509 closed at 1562, down 4. The trend strength is 0 [13][62]. - **Coking Coal**: It is affected by production - cut news and is in a wide - range oscillation. The JM2509 closed at 947, down 9. The trend strength is 0 [13][62]. - **Steam Coal**: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it is weakly oscillating. The动力煤ZC2505 had no trading yesterday. The trend strength is 0 [13][66][67]. 3.6 Building Materials - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The FG509 closed at 1122, down 0.53%. The trend strength is 0 [13][70][71]. 3.7 Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: The processing fee is expanding. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on SC. Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. The 28 - day PX valuation was 758 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars. The trend strength is 0 [13][78][80]. - **PTA**: It is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage. Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Go long on PTA and short on MEG. The trend strength is 0 [13][78][81]. - **MEG**: Go long on PTA and short on MEG. Do not chase the month - spread. The trend strength is 0 [13][76][81]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating. The trend strength is not provided in the text [13][82].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, MMG's copper production reached just over 118,000 tonnes, a 76% increase compared to the same quarter last year [20] - The total recordable injury frequency was 2.4 per million hours worked, with a significant events frequency of 1.08 per million hours worked, both metrics increased from the last quarter [18][19] - The company reported a record high ore mined volume of over 20 million tonnes for the quarter [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Las Bambas produced over 95,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate, a 71% increase compared to the same period last year [20] - Kinsevere produced almost 12,000 tonnes of copper cathode, a 19% increase compared to the same period last year [22] - Khoemakau produced close to 11,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate, a 4% increase from the previous quarter despite severe rainfall [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing favorable market conditions, including declining TCRC rates for copper and zinc concentrates and rising precious metal prices [25] - The operations at Las Bambas are stable and in good order, with expectations to meet the upper limit of production guidance for the year [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - MMG aims to become one of the top 10 global copper producers, focusing on safety performance, project delivery, and the integration of the Nickel Brazil acquisition [25][26] - The company is conducting a comprehensive review of its 2025 production and cost guidance [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about production meeting guidance levels, contingent on no nationwide incidents affecting operations [32] - The company is focused on improving community relations and has successfully established contracts with local community companies for transportation [30] Other Important Information - The company is progressing with the feasibility study for expanding capacity at Las Bambas, with production expected to reach 60,000 tonnes by 2026 and 130,000 tonnes by 2028 [42] - The company is actively working with the tax authority in Peru to resolve ongoing tax disputes, with no significant impact expected on cash flow or corporate income tax rates [70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for production at Las Bambas - Management indicated that production is expected to meet the upper limit of guidance if no nationwide incidents occur [30] Question: Inventory adjustments at Las Bambas - Sales in Q1 increased due to inventory sold from Q4 last year, and production is sticking to guidance [33] Question: Power outages at Kinsevere - Management confirmed that production is on track with guidance, and diesel power generation is used as a backup [35] Question: C1 cost expectations - C1 costs are expected to decrease as production increases, with improvements linked to precious metal prices [55] Question: Capital allocation and dividend policy - The company is focused on debt repayment, CapEx, and cautious M&A, with a strong capacity to generate cash [57] Question: Tax issues in Las Bambas - Management is optimistic about resolving tax disputes with minimal impact on cash flow or tax rates [70]