⚫ 上周铜价再创历史新高，主因非美地区精铜供应将进一步 趋紧，Codelco对中国地区CIF长单美金升水报价高达350 美元/吨，印尼Grasberg铜矿大幅下调今明两年产量指引； 此外，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯及美联储理事沃勒为首的官 员支持12月继续降息以应对脆弱的就业市场环境，美元指 数回落推升金属市场。基本面来看，海外中断矿山复产缓 慢，国内将严控精铜产能扩张，社会库存震荡下探，现货 升水走高，近月盘面C结构收窄。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铜周报 非美供应偏紧，铜价突破前高 核心观点及策略 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2025 年 12 月 1 日 ⚫ 整体来看，随着 ...

Core Insights - The global copper supply chain is highly concentrated, with the top five producing countries controlling over 70% of reserves, leading to vulnerabilities due to geopolitical and environmental factors [1][2] - The supply chain's fragility is expected to become evident in 2025, with significant production losses from major mines due to natural disasters and declining ore grades, resulting in increased extraction costs [1][2] - The U.S.-China-EU strategic competition is reshaping the global copper market, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on copper products, causing a significant shift in inventory distribution and price discrepancies between markets [2][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The copper supply is facing structural shortages due to long-term underinvestment, with a projected decline in global copper production in 2025 [4][6] - Demand is shifting towards clean energy and AI applications, with a significant increase in copper usage expected in these sectors, while traditional demand remains stable [6][7] - The supply-demand gap is expected to widen, with predictions of increasing shortages in the coming years, driven by exploration and production challenges [8] Price Drivers and Future Trends - Copper prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with expectations of price increases due to supply shortages and cost pressures [9][11] - Short-term price forecasts suggest a high volatility range, while long-term projections indicate a significant upward shift in copper prices due to structural supply deficits and rising demand from energy transitions [11][18] Industry Chain Dynamics - The copper market exhibits imbalances in profit distribution, with upstream mining companies benefiting disproportionately compared to midstream smelters facing pressure from low processing fees [12] - The recycling of copper is becoming increasingly important, with technological advancements improving the economic viability and quality of recycled copper [13] - Material substitution technologies are progressing but face limitations, with copper remaining irreplaceable in many critical applications [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the copper market is expected to experience a supply shortage in 2026 due to ongoing disruptions in mining operations and insufficient capital expenditure (CAPEX) [1][2][3]. - It emphasizes that macroeconomic factors, particularly the interplay between U.S. and China policies, will support a bullish trend in copper prices, with expectations of a price increase driven by demand from sectors like electric grids, new energy vehicles, and AI [3][4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2025 - The copper market faced unexpected supply disruptions in 2025, leading to a confirmed shortage for 2026. Major incidents included mining disruptions at Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente, Grasberg, and Quebrada Blanca, collectively reducing production guidance by 490,000 tons [1][13][19]. 2. Outlook for 2026 2.1 Macroeconomic Factors - 2026 is a pivotal year for U.S.-China relations, with expectations of a more stable trade environment and supportive fiscal policies, which are likely to enhance copper price stability and growth [3][23]. 2.2 Supply Side - The report notes that supply constraints will persist in 2026, with CAPEX needing to rise to incentivize new projects. Current CAPEX levels are significantly lower than historical peaks, indicating a cautious approach from mining companies [3][36][37]. 2.3 Demand Side - Demand for copper is projected to grow, particularly from electric grid investments and the burgeoning AI sector. The report estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% for copper demand from 2025 to 2029 [4][8]. 3. Supply-Demand Gap from 2025 to 2029 - The report forecasts a widening supply-demand gap for copper, with expected shortages of 470,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 244,000 tons by 2029 if production does not ramp up significantly [4][41]. 4. Key Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases and improved earnings [8][9].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - International gold prices have risen significantly, with spot gold reaching $4218.55 per ounce and COMEX gold futures at $4256.4 per ounce as of the morning of the 29th [1] - Silver prices have also surged, with spot silver breaking the $56 per ounce mark, and New York silver futures closing at $57.16 per ounce, marking a 6.6% increase [3] - Copper prices have hit a record high, with LME copper rising nearly 2.5% to $11,210.50 per ton [3] Group 2: Market Influences and Predictions - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased, with the probability of a December rate cut rising from about 50% to nearly 90%, contributing to the rebound in gold prices [5] - The World Silver Association forecasts that global silver mining supply will remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while demand is expected to decline by 4% to 1.12 billion ounces [5] - A resource company executive indicated that silver supply is expected to remain short in 2026, which will support silver prices [5] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Goldman Sachs has reiterated its target for gold prices to reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by central bank purchases and declining interest rates [8] - UBS strategists believe there is further upside potential for silver prices in the coming year, raising their forecast by $5 to $8 per ounce, with expectations for prices to reach $60 per ounce by 2026 [8] - Overall, the precious metals market is expected to continue a strong oscillating trend in the short term, with technical indicators suggesting potential upward movement for silver prices [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot processing fee of copper concentrate remains at a low level of -$40 per ton. Disruptions such as the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia continue, and the global shortage of copper ore supports copper prices [4]. - The copper consumption in power, new energy vehicles, and AI data centers has increased significantly, offsetting the weakness in traditional sectors, and the demand is relatively resilient [4]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is volatile, and the strengthening of the US dollar increases the cost of purchasing copper. The non - farm payrolls in the US in September exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, intensifying concerns about liquidity [4]. - The LME copper inventory increased by 16.08% week - on - week to 158,000 tons, reflecting weak overseas demand and suppressing the rebound of copper prices [4]. - The game between supply and demand continues, with the contradiction between supply shortage and high inventory. In the short term, copper prices will remain in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and the rhythm of terminal restocking [5]. 3. Summary by Categories Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) | Futures Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Open Interest | Weekly Change in Open Interest | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main Contract | 87,430 | 2.07% | 218,257 | 28,039 | 94,508 | | Shanghai Copper Index Weighted | 87,377 | 2.04% | 546,511 | 29,036 | 194,048 | | International Copper | 78,770 | 3.21% | 1,289 | - 2,040 | 2,580 | | LME Copper 3 - month | 10,930 | 2.28% | 239,014 | - 38,282 | 10,519 | | COMEX Copper | 516.25 | 4.22% | 134,293 | 65,265 | 12,165 | [6] Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 87,400 | 1,585 | 1.85% | | Shanghai Wumaomao | Yuan/ton | 87,360 | 1,490 | 1.74% | | Guangdong Nanchu | Yuan/ton | 87,390 | 1,490 | 1.73% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 87,440 | 1,460 | 1.7% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 110 | 20 | 22.22% | | Shanghai Wumaomao Premium | Yuan/ton | 65 | 5 | 8.33% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | Yuan/ton | 105 | 20 | 23.53% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 115 | 15 | 15% | | LME Copper (Spot/3 - month) Premium | US dollars/ton | 16.56 | 35.45 | - 187.67% | | LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) Premium | US dollars/ton | 166.25 | 48.57 | 41.27% | [11][12] Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit and Loss | Yuan/ton | - 860.94 | - 370.97 | 75.71% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 42.15 | - 0.43 | 1.03% | | Copper - Aluminum Ratio | Ratio | 4.0517 | 0.0447 | 1.12% | | Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference | Yuan/ton | 3,543.83 | 868.94 | 32.49% | [13] Copper Inventory Data (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Value | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt: Total | Tons | 35,244 | - 14,546 | - 29.21% | | International Copper Warehouse Receipt: Total | Tons | 5,502 | - 700 | - 11.29% | | Shanghai Copper Inventory | Tons | 97,930 | - 12,673 | - 11.46% | | LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 151,100 | 2,650 | 1.79% | | LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 6,075 | - 3,400 | - 35.88% | | LME Copper Inventory | Tons | 157,175 | - 750 | - 0.47% | | COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 194,336 | 20,085 | 11.53% | | COMEX Copper Unregistered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 223,330 | 5,903 | 2.71% | | COMEX Copper Inventory | Tons | 417,666 | 25,988 | 6.64% | | Copper Ore Port Inventory | 10,000 tons | 59.6 | 6.6 | 12.45% | | Social Inventory | 10,000 tons | 41.82 | 0.43 | 1.04% | [18][21] Copper Mid - stream Production Data (Monthly) | Production Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Production | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 120.4 | 8.9 | 1,229.5 | 9.7 | | Copper Products Production | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 200.4 | - 3.3 | 2,012.4 | 5.9 | [24] Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization Data (Monthly) | Capacity Type | Date | Unit | Annual Total Capacity | Capacity Utilization | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 1,584 | 56.2 | - 9.03 | - 5.35 | | Scrap Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 819 | 24.11 | - 1.26 | - 1.69 | | Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 359 | 63.84 | - 2.4 | - 8.4 | | Copper Bar Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 228.65 | 50.13 | - 0.77 | 0.1 | | Copper Tube Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 278.3 | 52.57 | - 6.87 | - 15.63 | [26] Copper Element Import Data (Monthly) | Import Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Concentrate Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 245.1487 | 6 | 2,511.8228 | 8 | | Anode Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 55,239 | - 8 | 634,011 | - 15 | | Cathode Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 279,944 | - 22 | 2,817,921 | - 6 | | Scrap Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 196,607 | 7 | 1,895,530 | 2 | | Copper Products Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 440,000 | - 13.5 | 4,460,000 | - 3.1 | [30]

Core Insights - Chile's copper production is projected to increase only by 1.6% from 2010 to 2024, while mining energy consumption is expected to rise significantly by 54% during the same period [1] Industry Overview - The primary reason for the disparity between copper production and energy consumption is the aging of mines, leading to a decline in ore grades, which necessitates the processing of more rock and longer transportation distances [1] - Open-pit mining energy consumption has surged by 79%, and energy consumption in the beneficiation process has increased by 89% [1] Energy Consumption Projections - By 2024, total energy consumption in Chile's mining sector is anticipated to reach 199,000 terajoules, with electricity and fuel consumption nearly equal [1] - The industry is accelerating its transition to green energy, with 78% of copper mining's electricity consumption expected to come from renewable sources in 2024; this figure is even higher for large mining companies at 96%, and medium-sized companies have increased from 57% in 2023 to 84% [1] Future Outlook - Experts predict that by 2034, the industry's electricity demand will continue to grow, reaching 32.5 terawatt-hours [1] - With the expansion of seawater desalination facilities and the electrification of beneficiation processes, electricity consumption from seawater is expected to increase by 145%, while fuel consumption is projected to gradually decline between 2030 and 2035 based on the decarbonization roadmaps set by mining companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in copper prices, driven by supply shortages and geopolitical factors, with expectations of continued price increases in the coming years due to structural supply constraints and rising demand [3][4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose over 4%, surpassing $11,200, marking a historical high due to supply shortages and expectations of increased demand [3][4]. - The current copper supply chain is experiencing a historic tightness, influenced by mining accidents in Indonesia and Chile, leading to a shift in pricing power back to miners [4]. - Miners are pushing for record low processing fees from smelters, with some companies like Aurubis AG refusing to accept excessively low fees, indicating a potential conflict in pricing negotiations [4][5]. Geopolitical Influences - U.S. tariffs are impacting market dynamics, with Codelco's premiums for U.S. market prices reaching historical highs, reflecting supply-demand fundamentals and additional costs [5]. - The expectation of continued refined copper flowing to the U.S. market due to tariff policies could exacerbate shortages in other regions, with predictions that U.S. copper inventories may account for 90% of global stocks [5][6]. Price Forecasts - UBS has raised its copper price forecasts for 2026, predicting prices to reach $11,500 per ton by March and $12,500 by December, driven by ongoing supply risks and declining inventories [8][9]. - The anticipated copper market deficit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of a 230,000-ton deficit in 2025 and nearly doubling to 407,000 tons in 2026 [9][10]. - Goldman Sachs projects a long-term copper price of $15,000 per ton by 2035, citing resource limitations and increasing demand in key sectors as primary drivers [10]. Demand Growth - Global copper demand is expected to maintain a growth rate of 2.8% in the coming years, supported by sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and data centers [10].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing unprecedented supply chain tightness, driven by intense negotiations between miners and smelters, tariff expectations leading to supply mismatches, and record metal premiums, pushing copper prices to new highs [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Miners are currently in a dominant position due to overcapacity in smelting and unexpected supply disruptions, leading to a historic low processing fee benchmark [5]. - The price of copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached approximately $11,210 per ton, marking a new intraday historical high, with a daily increase of 2.5% [3]. - The annual premium for refined copper shipped to China has surged to a record high, with Codelco offering a premium of $350 per ton, significantly higher than the previously agreed $89 [6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Issues - The expectation is that a significant amount of refined copper will flow to the U.S., potentially holding 90% of the global copper inventory by the first quarter of 2026, exacerbating shortages in other regions [6]. - The ongoing negotiations have led to a stalemate, with some participants potentially withdrawing from the established pricing system between major miners and Chinese processors [5]. Group 3: Currency Influence - The weakening of the U.S. dollar, driven by expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, has provided additional support for rising copper prices [7][8]. - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index has been on a downward trend, which lowers the cost of raw material procurement for overseas buyers, further supporting metal prices [8].

因智利生产商智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)大幅提高其年度溢价，且美元走弱令金属吸引力提升，铜价上 涨。 铜期货价格正向每吨10,900美元迈进，周二涨幅达0.4%。 智利国家铜业公司提出以每吨335美元的溢价，向部分买家供应2026年年度合同所需铜材，该溢价是伦 敦金属交易所价格之上计算的。 该公司向部分中国买家提出，在2026年年度合同中，其铜供应的溢价定为每吨350美元(基于伦敦金属交 易所价格)。此举凸显出市场对运往美国货物激增或很快导致其他地区出现供应短缺的担忧。 权益端，铜相关标的计量2025年8w铜价15—16倍PE，2026年8.5w铜价12—13倍，建议在沪铜波动率下 降至低位时积极介入铜标的布局。 铜矿企业相关港股： 洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)、紫金矿业（601899）(02899)、五矿资源(01208)、江西铜业（600362）股 份(00358)、中国有色矿业(01258) 鉴于铜矿增量有限，电力消费前景良好，全球铜供需出现缺口且随时间推移缺口呈扩大之势，支撑铜价 重心上移。目前铜已经完成对Grasberg、Teck供应干扰的计价，疲弱的消费主导铜价短期回落； 另外，据 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, driven by cost support on the supply side and improved macro - sentiment, but the weak demand restricts the increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 86,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [3][57] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The SHFE price of the main contract rose slightly to 86,620 yuan/ton on November 26, up 70 yuan from the previous day. The basis of premium copper and flat - water copper increased slightly, while the LME(0 - 3) basis weakened to 9.52 US dollars/ton [1][56] - **Position and Trading Volume**: Market procurement sentiment slightly increased on November 26, trading volume slightly expanded, and there was no significant change in position data [1][57] Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Chile's national copper company significantly raised the long - term contract price for 2026 to 350 US dollars/ton on November 26, reflecting rising supply costs. The Tibet Yulong Copper Project was put into operation on November 22, increasing the annual processing capacity of copper oxide ore to 1 million tons. The Australian Eva Copper Project was approved and is expected to be put into production in 2028, increasing future supply [2][57] - **Demand Side**: Downstream consumption in North China was weak on November 26. Limited funds at the end of the month led to poor demand. Although the overall procurement sentiment slightly increased, downstream price - pressing psychology was obvious [2][57] - **Inventory Side**: LME inventory continued to decline to 39,825 tons on November 26, a decrease of about 9.1% compared to November 20. SHFE inventory slightly increased to 156,575 tons, and COMEX inventory increased [2][57] Price Trend Judgment - **Future Trend**: It is expected that the copper price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks [3][57] - **Driving Reasons**: On the supply side, the rising long - term contract price and future project commissioning imply rising costs and increased supply; on the demand side, weak downstream consumption and price - pressing psychology limit demand recovery; macro - sentiment is supported by the Fed's dovish remarks on November 26, which weakened the US dollar and supported risk assets including copper prices [58][59][60]