1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the supply of live pigs increases and demand is weak, putting pressure on pig prices. In the long - term, policies such as the anti - involution initiative and high - quality development of the pig industry are expected to benefit pig prices, and the impact of policies on production capacity needs to be monitored [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Futures market**: On July 31, the main 2509 live pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then fluctuated downwards, closing down 0.32% at 14,075 yuan/ton. The total open interest of the index decreased by 10,308 lots to 175,934 lots [8] - **Spot market**: On July 31, the average price of ternary pigs in China was 14.09 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high. Secondary fattening enthusiasm is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. With the increase in enterprise sales at the end of the month, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses increased slightly. On July 31, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 137,000 heads, down 500 from the previous day and up 2,400 from a week ago [9] - **Supply side**: In July, the planned sales volume of sample enterprises was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% month - on - month decrease from June. At the end of the month, the sales progress of farmers accelerated, and the average weight of pigs for sale decreased slightly. The utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening is high, and there are still pigs for secondary fattening to be sold in the future [9] 3.2 Industry News - As of July 24, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 162 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 63 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/head [10][12] 3.3 Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 24 was 542 yuan/head, unchanged from the previous week [20] - At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 2.2% year - on - year increase and a 1.72% quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.16 million heads [20] - As of the week of July 24, the average weight of live pigs for sale was 128.48 kg, a 0.27% week - on - week decrease and a 2.46% year - on - year increase [20]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The July 2025 Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the integration of high-quality development with short-term economic growth, highlighting the need for flexible and anticipatory macro policies to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market [6][7] - The meeting set a GDP growth target of 5.3% for the first half of 2025, indicating a solid foundation for achieving annual economic goals [6] - The focus on effective demand release and consumption growth was reiterated, with specific actions proposed to stimulate service consumption and expand commodity consumption [6][7] Group 2: Agricultural Sector Analysis - The agricultural sector showed a 3.62% increase in the week of July 21-27, 2025, with significant performance in sub-industries such as other planting, pig farming, and poultry feed [9] - Pig prices experienced a slight decline, with average prices in key provinces reported at 13.60, 15.54, and 14.13 CNY/kg, reflecting a decrease of 0.37%, 0.32%, and 1.74% respectively [9] - The feed industry is expected to see a recovery due to declining upstream raw material prices and improving conditions in the breeding sector, with companies like Haida Group positioned for growth [9] Group 3: Technology and Investment Trends - Meta and Microsoft have significantly increased their capital expenditure (CAPEX) forecasts for 2025, with Meta's CAPEX projected to be between 66-72 billion USD, up from a previous estimate of 64-72 billion USD [11] - The establishment of large-scale AI data centers by Meta is expected to enhance the penetration of HVDC technology in China, with recommendations for companies like Zhongheng Electric as key players in this sector [10][11] - The overall performance of major tech companies has exceeded expectations, providing a strong foundation for future CAPEX growth [11]

Group 1 - Tianyue Advanced, the world's second-largest silicon carbide substrate manufacturer, has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, while lithium battery giant XWANDA and AI inference chip service provider Yuntian Lifi have submitted their listing applications [1] - As of July 30, a total of 236 companies are queued for Hong Kong stock listings, with 42 A-share companies having submitted their applications [5][8] - In 2023, 10 companies successfully listed in Hong Kong, raising a total of HKD 88.286 billion, with CATL leading at HKD 41.006 billion, marking the largest IPO globally this year [2][4] Group 2 - The average cumulative increase for the 10 A+H shares listed this year is 38.55%, with notable performers including Jihong Co. at 117.71% and Hengrui Medicine at 79% [4] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has seen significant inflows, with over HKD 850 billion entering the market this year, surpassing the total for 2024 [12] - A growing number of A-share companies are choosing to list in Hong Kong due to supportive domestic policies and improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market [12][13]

浦银国际发布研报称，当前，本轮"反内卷"行情仍处在政策预期上升驱动的阶段，行情的持续性仍需观 察政策落地、产能出清、产能利用率提升、供需结构动态平衡和企业盈利改善等的情况。本轮"反内 卷"与供给侧改革仍存在较多不同之处，供给侧改革针对的行业主要以国企为主，而本轮"反内卷"针对 的大部分为新兴行业，行业较为分散，民企占比较高。预计本轮"反内卷"政策有望带动相关行业的供需 关系、企业盈利以及市场表现等多方面改善，那些处于供给出清前期的行业或具有更大的改善空间。 一是针对的行业范围不同。本轮"反内卷"涉及的行业更广泛，除了传统产业之外，还涵盖光伏、锂电、 新能源汽车、互联网电商等多个新兴产业，以中下游行业为主。 二是涉及行业中民企占比较大。供给侧改革针对的行业主要以国企为主，而本轮"反内卷"针对的大部分 为新兴行业，行业较为分散，民企占比较高。 三是本次采取的政策手段将更多元。由于"反内卷"相关行业独特性更强，明确量化目标、大范围采取行 政手段推动产能出清未必适用，采取的政策手段会因行业而异，落实难度不小。 四是两者的推进路径和侧重点不同。与供给侧改革核心在于化解过剩产能不同，本轮"反内卷"需要供需 两端协同发力， ...

Group 1 - The external situation has eased, reinforcing the internal certainty logic, with the Chinese stock market expected to have upward potential before the end of July due to a significant reduction in the risk-free interest rate and a shift in the RMB's depreciation expectations towards stability or slight appreciation [1] - The timely and reasonable macro policies focusing on investor returns and capital market reforms are crucial for changing investors' conservative attitudes towards risks [1] - Future investment should focus more on structural performance rather than short-term index movements [1] Group 2 - Pig prices continue to outperform expectations, and the cost improvements for pig farming companies may lead to better-than-expected profitability, with a focus on the pig farming sector [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to benefit the pig price performance in the second half of 2025, with a seasonal price fluctuation anticipated in the latter half of the year [3] - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting has deepened the "anti-involution" work deployment, impacting various industries including construction materials, which may lead to better industry capacity planning and product pricing adjustments [3] Group 3 - Mini LED backlighting and direct display technologies are expected to see higher growth rates and profitability compared to traditional LED markets, with industry benefits likely concentrating among a few leading manufacturers [5] - The increase in non-hydropower renewable energy consumption responsibility weights is projected to support approximately 460 billion kWh of green electricity consumption this year [5] - High-energy-consuming industries such as steel and cement are now included in the green electricity consumption assessment, which may further support green electricity consumption and market development [5] Group 4 - The short-term market trend is strong, with significant new capital entering the market, although the overall profit-making effect remains weak [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen below the 5-day moving average but remains above the 10-day moving average, indicating a potential short-term adjustment phase [9] - The focus for the second half of the year should be on the establishment of the Class B directory and addressing structural contradictions in various industries [9]

Group 1 - The report highlights a reversal in the pig farming dilemma, indicating a potential recovery in the industry due to policy-driven capacity adjustments and supply reductions [2][8]. - The current pig cycle is in a de-stocking phase, with the number of breeding sows in China decreasing from a peak of 41.42 million in 2024 to 40.43 million in June 2025, a decline of approximately 2.4% [22][23]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has set a target to reduce the breeding sow population by about 1 million heads, aiming for a total of 39.5 million [22][23]. Group 2 - Short-term pig prices are expected to decline due to reduced second fattening and seasonal demand, but a long-term increase is anticipated if the breeding sow population stabilizes below 39.5 million [26][29]. - As of July 25, 2025, the profit from self-breeding pig farming was 62.16 yuan per head, a decrease of 31.61% from the previous week, while the loss from purchasing piglets expanded to 71.39 yuan per head [32][33]. - The report emphasizes that large-scale enterprises will have more stable profitability compared to smallholders due to cost advantages and industry chain synergies [32]. Group 3 - The report identifies two key companies in the pig farming industry: Yongshun Biological and Dayu Biological, detailing their business models and market positions [3][35]. - Yongshun Biological focuses on the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological products, with over 30 types of vaccines for pigs and poultry, maintaining over 90% of its revenue from vaccine sales [3][37]. - Dayu Biological specializes in feed additives and veterinary drugs, with its feed additive and feed businesses accounting for 65.39% and 29.74% of its revenue, respectively [50][56]. Group 4 - The report provides an overview of the pig farming industry chain, which includes upstream breeding, feed production, and veterinary supplies, midstream modern farming practices, and downstream processing and distribution [21][24]. - The entire industry chain is heavily influenced by technological advancements, management practices, disease control, and is subject to environmental regulations and government oversight [21][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to increased group sales at the end of July and weak demand in the off - season, pig prices are likely to remain under pressure. In the long - term, although pig supply shows a slight increase, favorable policies such as the anti - involution initiative, high - quality development of the pig industry, and strengthened environmental protection in some regions will have a positive impact on pig prices, and the impact of subsequent policies on production capacity needs attention [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 30th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,005 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 33 lots to 186,242 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 30th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. With the increase in the number of pigs sold by enterprises at the end of the month, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On July 30th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 137,400 heads, an increase of 800 heads from the previous day and 3,900 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. At the end of the month, the slaughter progress of the breeding side accelerated, the enthusiasm for slaughter increased, the slaughter weight decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening was high, with more pigs for secondary fattening still to be slaughtered [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 24th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 162 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 63 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 24th was 542 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [18]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [18]. - As of the week of July 24th, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%, and an increase of 3.09 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.46% [18].

Core Viewpoint - Since early June, live pig futures prices have shown a trend of fluctuating upward, but recently have experienced a pullback due to overall macro sentiment. As of July 30, the main contract for live pig futures closed at 14,075 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton or 4.5% from the closing price of 13,475 yuan/ton on June 9 [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The live pig spot price has continued to decline since August 2024 due to excess production capacity. As of June 2025, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.43 million, showing a negligible decline of less than 1% from the peak at the end of 2024 [1]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has implemented a series of regulatory measures since June, including suspending the expansion of breeding sows and regulating secondary fattening. Following these measures, leading breeding companies quickly responded, leading to a rebound in live pig spot prices from their lows [1]. - As of July 3, the average daily price of live pigs in the mainstream market was 15.5 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.56 yuan/kg or 11% from the low point in early June [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Despite the rebound in prices, supply-side pressures have not been effectively alleviated, and the current period is characterized by weak demand. The price of live pigs has shown a pullback after reaching a high in July [2][3]. - The recent "anti-involution" measures in the pig industry are expected to effectively eliminate outdated production capacity and control the weight of market pigs, which may lead to a decrease in live pig inventory [2]. - The average daily slaughter volume has decreased by 7.93% compared to June, making it difficult to absorb the output, and the spot price in Henan has dropped from 15.5 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to 14 yuan/kg [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to gradually take effect, potentially reducing the number of breeding sows to 39.5 million. This is likely to provide bottom support for long-term contracts [4]. - The increasing proportion of large-scale breeding enterprises is expected to smooth out the volatility of pig prices, reducing the impact of significant fluctuations in production capacity on prices [4]. - In 2024, the number of breeding sows among major listed companies is projected to increase by 6.12%, and the annual output of the top 10 listed pig companies is expected to reach 142.75 million heads, an increase of 10.56% compared to 2023 [4].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 牧原股份（002714.SZ）7月30日在投资者互动平台表示，公司2025年6月的全程成活率在86%左右，是 生猪从出生到出栏上市全过程的成活率。当前公司生猪养殖完全成本中，饲料成本占比在55-60%左 右。后续公司会充分发挥猪群的生长潜力，提升猪群健康水平，从而降低料肉比，提高饲料转换效率； 同时根据原材料价格及时调整饲料配方，有效降低饲料成本。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司成活率在行业中处于较低水平，为什么完全成本 还能领先呢？请问公司饲料造肉成本多少？保育育肥阶段的饲料价格多少？ ...

该奖项是由证券之星联合妙盈科技等专业权威机构，在中国首席经济学家论坛等指导下设立的ESG领域权威奖项，旨在挖掘并表彰在环境(如低碳减排、绿 色供应链)、社会(如乡村振兴、公益慈善)及公司治理(如合规管理、风险防控)三大维度实现卓越实践，推动经济效能与社会责任深度融合的企业。 近日，证券之星第三届ESG新标杆企业评选结果揭晓，牧原股份（002714）凭借在环境、社会和治理(ESG)领域的卓越实践，荣获"供应链影响力奖"。 在供应链创新方面，牧原股份不断加大研发投入，积极探索新技术、新模式的应用。公司自主研发的智能化空气过滤猪舍、智能巡检机器人等创新技术，不 仅提高了养殖效率，降低了生产成本，还为供应链的高效运作提供了有力支持。此外，牧原还通过大数据分析、物联网技术等手段，实现了对供应链的实时 监控和精准管理，进一步提升了供应链的智能化水平。 在推动绿色供应链建设方面，牧原股份更是走在了行业前列。公司积极响应国家"双碳"目标，通过种养循环、无供热猪舍、光伏发电等绿色低碳技术的应 用，大幅降低了温室气体排放，实现了经济效益与环境效益的双赢。 2024年，牧原的温室气体减排价值达到529.14万吨二氧化碳当量，温室气 ...