Market Outlook - The "spring offensive" initiated on January 13, 2025, is expected to continue, targeting the upper range of the previous market fluctuations, with a potential decisive moment in May[4] - The GDP growth target remains around 5%, indicating a proactive and pragmatic macro policy approach[12] Style Rotation - Mid-cap value and growth stocks are leading in market capitalization style, indicating a concentration in mid-cap stocks[5] - The valuation style is expected to be balanced, with a shift towards value stocks as growth style advantages may weaken[5] Industry Focus - Key sectors to watch include food and beverage, pharmaceutical biology, real estate, and new energy, benefiting from policy guidance and significant calendar effects[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected international geopolitical tensions and domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations[7] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes a focus on mid-cap stocks and consumer sectors, with a balanced valuation approach[5][6]

导语 随着国家政策层面对科技创新的大力扶持，科创板在2019年6月13日正式开版，投资市 场更添新力军。虽然科创板和老前辈创业板的设立目的都是为了支持新兴产业的发展， 但两者在上市条件的设置上有所区别，例如创业板对上市企业的营业收入和净利润有不 同程度的要求，但科创板允许在营收和利润上相对较弱、但拥有技术优势的企业前来上 市。从上市条件看，科创板对于萌芽期的企业给予了更高的容纳度。这种上市条件的差 异化，使得科创板与创业板形成了互补和梯度，能够为投资者提供更加丰富的投资标 的。 随着指数投资日益发展，指数基金产品的宽度和深度日渐丰富，投资者可以选择通过指数基金 来参与到科创板的投资。 自打科创板2019年设立以来，中证指数公司围绕科创板，发行了包 括科创综指、科创50、科创100、科创200四只具有代表性的指数。 这几只指数存在哪些差 异？今天我们就来聊聊科创板系列指数的特点。 首先，四只指数都采取了市值加权的构建方式。 科创综指 全称上证科创板综合指数，正如指 数名称所示，指数选取科创板上市的除了实施风险警示的所有股票作为样本来构建投资组合。 科创50 全称上证科创板50成分指数，由科创板中市值大、流动性好 ...

Group 1 - The overall profitability of the A-share market is weak, with cumulative net profit for non-financial companies down by 3.7% year-on-year, while operating revenue increased by 3.8% [6][15][12] - As of March 8, 2024, 1,066 listed companies have disclosed their performance reports, with 47% having previously issued earnings forecasts [6][12] - The performance of the CSI 500 index is superior, with a net profit growth of 8.7%, outperforming small-cap indices [15][16] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical and non-bank financial sectors are leading, with continuous acceleration in year-on-year growth [23][24] - In the upstream raw materials sector, oil, petrochemicals, and coal show strong performance, while non-ferrous metals experienced a slight decline in Q3 2024 but showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024 [23][24] - The TMT sector, particularly the electronics industry, continues to thrive due to AI-driven demand, with revenue and performance showing positive growth for four consecutive quarters [27][28] Group 3 - The banking and non-bank financial sectors have a high proportion of companies with both revenue and performance growth, indicating a favorable economic environment [36][39] - In the midstream manufacturing sector, all five industries reported negative net profit growth, with only basic chemicals and defense industries showing slight recovery [28][29] - The consumer goods sector, particularly pharmaceuticals and food and beverage, has shown significant growth, while textiles and retail remain weak [28][29] Group 4 - The expected net profit growth for the entire A-share market in 2025 is projected to be around 1.5%, with non-financial companies expected to see a 5% increase [23][24] - The performance of the component and aerospace equipment industries remains high, with significant improvements noted in the battery and military electronics sectors [42][46] - The overall performance of the main board and growth enterprise board is significantly better than that of the sci-tech innovation board and the northern stock exchange [15][16]

沪深 300ETF 延续流出趋势 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——被动资金流动性周观察 本报告导读： 上周被动资金净流出规模收窄，成交占比上升，两融余额增长。净流入规模居前的 ETF 类型多元，既有宽基也有科技、红利、消费等，而沪深 300ETF、与科创综指 ETF 流出居前。行业层面，房地产、传媒获净流入，电子、医药生物流出居前。 投资要点： 风险提示：数据统计口径与测算方法误差，历史数据指引性有限。 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.09 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi020833@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan026724@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 银行业保险业绿色金融高质量发展 2025.03.04 2024 年科创板业绩快报情况跟踪 2025.03.02 被动资金流出略收窄， ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the power equipment, real estate, and banking sectors present a favorable risk-return profile [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring industry rotation through volume indicators and crowding risk assessments [4][5] Industry Rotation Perspective 1: Volume Indicators - The core logic suggests that an increase in trading volume indicates a divergence in market opinions, potentially signaling a trend reversal [9] - In December 2022 and January 2023, most industries showed negative turnover rate slopes, while February 2023 saw a positive trend, particularly in the computer and power equipment sectors [10] - Industries with buy signals based on volume include power equipment, real estate, beauty care, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and banking [10][11] Industry Rotation Perspective 2: Crowding Risk Indicators - The crowding indicator reflects the degree of trading activity overheating, serving as a warning for potential risks [13] - Industries at risk due to high transaction concentration include machinery, computers, and home appliances [13][14] Volume Buy Signal Industry Details and ETFs Power Equipment - The power equipment sector shows strong market attractiveness with a notable volume performance [19] - The crowding level is acceptable, with some companies driving volume without affecting the entire sector [19] - Relevant ETFs include those tracking solar power leaders and new energy indices [20] Real Estate - The real estate sector ranks in the middle for volume performance, with a relatively low crowding level indicating a good risk-return profile [24] - Relevant ETFs track indices such as mainland real estate and the full index of real estate [26] Beauty Care - The beauty care sector ranks in the middle for volume, with a high internal sentiment concentration indicating a favorable risk-return profile [29] Agriculture - The agriculture sector ranks high in volume performance, with a good risk-return profile due to low crowding levels [32] - Relevant ETFs track indices related to modern agriculture and livestock [33] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical sector ranks high in volume performance, with a good risk-return profile as well [36] - Relevant ETFs include those tracking various pharmaceutical indices [38] Banking - The banking sector ranks low in volume performance but shows a good risk-return profile with low crowding levels [43] - Relevant ETFs track indices such as the China Securities Banking Index [45]

1 、 《 RISC-V芯片投资价值全景梳理 》摘要 ■ RISC-V芯片最大特点是 开源 ，即不属于任何国家或公司，任何企业和机构都可以自由使用和开发 基于RISC-V的芯片，而无需支付授权费用。 ■ 目前 Windows、Android 对RISC-V的支持仍不完善，但华为 HarmonyOS、统信UOS 等国产操作 系统已适配RISC-V，有望加速普及。 ■ 玄铁C930 的发布代表着中国在 服务器级RISC-V芯片 领域迈出重要一步，但仍与 英伟达、英特尔 存在一定差距。 ■ RISC-V概念股因政策利好短期迎来炒作， 关注涨停潮中的核心标的 （芯原股份、全志科技、兆易 创新等）。 2、 《 医药行业业绩预告总结》摘要 ■ 2024年医药板块整体面临多重不利因素影响，业绩普遍承压。主要原因包括生物医药投融资环境低 迷、高毛利大订单执行周期结束、以及政策环境的变化等。 ■ 然而，行业内已经充分体现了外部环境的挑战和调整，预计在低基数的基础上，2025年整体业绩将 探底回升。 3、 《 企业级存储需求顺势而上》摘 要 ■ 受短期内行业供需错配影响，业绩仍有压力，尤其是在产品价格和市场份额争夺上，面临一定挑 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - January CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9%, marking the highest level in seven months [7] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.1% and previous 3.2% [7] - January PPI year-on-year was 3.5%, matching the previous value and exceeding the expected 3.2% [7] Group 2: Market Performance - S&P 500 index rose by 1.5% last week, while the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 7.3%, marking the highest increase globally [20] - Among the 36 secondary sectors in the U.S. stock market, 27 sectors saw gains, with the top five performing sectors being Electrical Equipment, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Durable Goods, Pharmaceuticals, and Household Products [23] Group 3: Company Performance - 76% of S&P 500 companies reported actual EPS above expectations, slightly below the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 75% [5] - Notable companies with significant stock price increases include AMD, Intel, and Airbnb, contributing to the overall positive performance of the S&P 500 [26]