Group 1: Equity Fund Market - In September, the enthusiasm for launching equity funds continues to rise, with 124 funds expected to be issued, of which 85 are equity funds, accounting for nearly 70% [1] - On September 1 alone, 57 funds were launched, with 47 being equity funds, indicating a strong market sentiment supported by policy and market performance [1] - The stock fund index and equity fund index have reached nearly three-year highs, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% [1] Group 2: Growth of ChiNext Companies - As of August 2025, ChiNext companies reported a total revenue exceeding 2 trillion yuan, with over 70% achieving profitability [1] - The advanced manufacturing, digital economy, and green low-carbon sectors showed significant performance, with leading companies demonstrating strong growth [1] - There is a continuous increase in R&D investment among ChiNext companies, reflecting a strong willingness to expand production [1] Group 3: A-share City Commercial Banks - In the first half of 2025, 14 out of 17 A-share city commercial banks reported positive revenue growth, with an average growth rate of 5.22%, up from 2.96% in the first quarter [2] - 15 banks reported positive net profit growth, with an average increase of 6.74%, compared to 5.49% in the previous quarter [2] - Jiangsu Bank surpassed Beijing Bank in asset size, indicating a shift in the ranking of city commercial banks [2] Group 4: Optical Switch Market Growth - The optical switch market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected market size of $2.02 billion by 2031 and a compound annual growth rate of 16.3% [2] - Companies like Huawei and Unisplendour are actively entering the optical switch industry, alongside international players like Google and Coherent [2] Group 5: Cement Industry Mergers and Acquisitions - The cement industry is experiencing active mergers and acquisitions, with leading companies accelerating consolidation to enhance market concentration [3] - The industry showed resilience in the first half of 2025, with many companies reporting profit growth due to rising cement prices and declining coal costs [3] - Analysts predict a slight improvement in cement demand in the second half of the year, although price recovery may be limited [3] Group 6: Private Equity Focus - In August, private equity firms increased their research frequency, focusing on "hard technology" and "big health" sectors [4] - The number of private equity firm visits to A-share companies exceeded 6,000, reflecting a positive outlook for the market [4] Group 7: Apple AI Talent Loss - Apple faces a talent drain in its AI division, with key personnel leaving for Meta, including the head of robotics AI research [4] - This recent wave of departures has raised concerns about the stability of Apple's AI team, which is crucial for developing its AI platform [4] Group 8: XGIMI Technology's H-share Listing - XGIMI Technology plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, considering the interests of existing shareholders [5] Group 9: WuXi AppTec's Fundraising - WuXi AppTec plans to raise over 1.31 billion HKD through a discounted share placement, with a 4% discount on the share price [6] Group 10: China National Petroleum's Share Transfer - China National Petroleum plans to transfer 541 million A-shares to China Mobile Group, enhancing strategic cooperation without changing control [7] Group 11: China Export Credit Insurance - China Export Credit Insurance has successfully insured a nickel material production project in Morocco, marking a significant investment in Africa [8] Group 12: Gree Electric's Share Buyback - Gree Electric's major shareholder completed a share buyback plan, investing 2.099 billion yuan to increase its stake in the company [9]

Market Performance - On September 2, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.85%[3] - The total trading volume on September 2 was 2.91 trillion, an increase of approximately 130 billion compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Analysis - Major sectors experienced declines, with communication, computing, electronics, and military industries leading the losses, while banking, utilities, and home appliances saw slight gains[1] - The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai market was 194.51 billion yuan, and from the Shenzhen market, it was 315.77 billion yuan on September 2[4] Market Sentiment - The market is facing significant resistance at its current position, with a more pronounced adjustment compared to the previous trading days[1] - There is a short-term pressure for profit-taking in the main sectors, leading to increased volatility in market sentiment[1] Industry Developments - The logistics industry in China showed a positive trend with a logistics prosperity index of 50.9% in August, indicating continuous demand growth[7] - The software industry reported a revenue of 83,246 billion yuan in the first seven months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3%[8] Investment Trends - Overseas Chinese stock ETFs have seen significant growth, with the KraneShares China Internet ETF surpassing 8.5 billion USD in size[11] - Recent policies in Shanghai support the development of AI chips, indicating a focus on enhancing technological capabilities in the region[5][6]

ab 2 September 2025 Global Research China Equity Strategy A-share Q225 earnings review Overall A-share earnings +0.7% YoY in Q2, -3.2% YoY for ex-financials Overall A-share earnings grew 2.3% in H125, or 0.6% YoY for ex-financials. Specifically, overall A-share earnings edged up 0.7% YoY in Q225 (Figure 10A-share nigsowth bysector), slower than +3.7% YoY in Q125. Given intensified China-US trade frictions and the property sector's ongoing bottoming in Q225, non-financial sectors' earnings growth was again i ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in activity, with the margin trading balance reaching a historical high, indicating strong investor participation and capital inflow [2][3]. Group 1: Margin Trading Balance - As of September 1, the A-share margin trading balance reached 22,969.91 billion yuan, surpassing the previous peak of 22,730.35 billion yuan set on June 18, 2015, with an increase of 356.42 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The margin trading balance has maintained positive growth for 11 consecutive weeks since June 23, accumulating an increase of 4,845.1 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of over 26% [3]. Group 2: Investor Participation - The number of investors participating in margin trading has significantly increased, with over 500,000 participants since August 13, peaking at 672,300 on August 25, far exceeding the average of 282,300 from the previous year [4]. - As of September 1, the number of individual investors engaged in margin trading reached 7,614,800, an increase of 387,000 from the end of last year, while the number of institutional investors decreased to 50,064, down by 2,184 [4]. Group 3: Funding Preferences - Recent financing funds have shown a strong preference for the electronic industry, with a net inflow of 1,034.08 billion yuan since June 23, accounting for over 20% of the total market net inflow [5]. - The electronic industry has experienced a year-to-date index increase of nearly 35%, with a 18.51% year-on-year growth in revenue and a 28.92% increase in net profit for the first half of the year [5]. - Notably, among the top 10 stocks with net financing purchases exceeding 4 billion yuan since June 23, four belong to the electronic sector, with Shenghong Technology leading at 7.948 billion yuan [5].

Core Insights - The report highlights the profitability pressure faced by the North Exchange in Q2 2025, primarily due to overseas disturbances and high fixed asset growth, with a forecasted turning point in the second half of the year [3][8]. - The technology manufacturing sector is leading the growth, driven by a combination of cyclical recovery and AI industry trends, while consumer sectors show a mixed performance [3][8]. - The report suggests three strategies to identify high-growth opportunities: selecting companies with sustained revenue growth, those with upward revisions in profit forecasts, and those with high contract liabilities and advance payments [3][8]. Summary by Sections Profitability Analysis - As of Q2 2025, the North Exchange reported a revenue growth rate of +4.9% and a net profit growth rate of -16.6%, indicating significant profitability challenges [8]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a sharp drop in export growth to the U.S., with over 50% of companies experiencing negative net profit growth [8]. - Fixed asset growth reached a historical high of +30.2%, contributing to the pressure on profitability, with a gross margin of 22.4% [8]. Industry Structure - The technology manufacturing sector is experiencing high growth, with key industries such as computing, telecommunications, and electrical equipment showing positive trends [8]. - The report notes a structural recovery in midstream manufacturing, particularly in traditional robotics and engineering machinery, alongside emerging industries [8]. - Consumer sectors are experiencing a mixed recovery, with agriculture and forestry showing potential for improvement [8]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends identifying companies with consistent upward trends in revenue and net profit growth over the past four quarters, highlighting specific companies like Kaiter and Fujida [3][8]. - It also suggests focusing on companies with upward revisions in profit forecasts, such as Shuguang Shuchuang and Naconoer, which have seen significant increases in expected net profit growth [3][8]. - Companies with high contract liabilities and advance payments, like Kangnong Agriculture and Kun工科技, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][8].

随着上市公司半年报披露落下帷幕，百亿级私募重仓标的也悉数曝光。私募排排网统计数据显示，共有31家百亿级私募旗下产品出现在上市公司二季度末 前十大流通股东名单中，合计持股市值超600亿元。从加仓动向来看，百亿级私募不仅进一步加码科技、创新药等中国经济转型的新方向，还逐步布局房 地产、建筑材料等反映中国经济基本面积极变化的行业。 在业内人士看来，稳增长政策持续发力、新兴产业加速发展、居民消费需求逐步修复的过程中，市场的结构性行情有望从科技、创新药、新消费等领域扩 散至顺周期板块。 重仓科技与医药 私募排排网数据显示，截至8月31日，31家百亿级私募旗下产品出现在28个申万一级行业中的175家A股上市公司二季度末前十大流通股东名单中，合计持 股市值达658.29亿元。其中，百亿级私募二季度新进上市公司32家，增持29家，对91家上市公司保持持股数量不变，另外对23家进行了减持。 从行业分布来看，截至二季度末，百亿级私募持仓主要集中在电子、医药生物、计算机、机械设备和基础化工等五大行业，涉及上市公司数量依次为28 家、20家、17家、15家和15家。与此同时，电子、医药生物等板块也是百亿级私募二季度加仓的主要方向。 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - Thailand's real GDP grew by 2.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 2.4% and up from 2.3% in Q2 2024, although it slowed from 3.2% in Q1 2025 [2][8] - The National Economic and Social Development Council adjusted the full-year growth forecast to 1.8-2.3%, up from the previous range of 1.3-2.3%, maintaining cautious optimism amid global uncertainties [2][8] - Key growth drivers include strong export performance, with Q2 exports up 12.2% year-on-year, and a rebound in private investment, which grew by 4.1% [8][10] Policy Response - Thailand faces multiple pressures including political friction, border conflicts, trade risks, and natural disasters, which pose challenges to growth [3][21] - The Constitutional Court's ruling on former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha's actions may delay key initiatives like the digital wallet plan [21][22] - Strong foreign direct investment (FDI) activity, with a record 1,063 approved projects worth $18.7 billion in H1 2025, signals positive investment sentiment [22][23] Trade Dynamics - Thailand's exports grew by 14.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, continuing a five-quarter growth streak, driven by strong demand for electronics [4][30] - The U.S. imposed a 19% tariff on Thai goods, which may pressure export-oriented businesses in the second half of 2025 [4][30] - Thailand is actively seeking to diversify its trade relationships, achieving key milestones such as gaining BRICS partner status and enhancing ties with the European Free Trade Association [4][31][32] Tourism Sector - The tourism sector showed signs of weakness, with foreign visitor numbers down 12.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, primarily due to safety concerns and regional competition [5][38] - The Thai government announced a stimulus package of 10 billion baht (approximately $300 million) to promote tourism and improve attractions [5][39] - Long-haul tourists are expected to increase, potentially driving tourism revenue to $46.4 billion in 2025, up from $39.7 billion in 2024 [5][39] Capital Markets - The SET index rose by 3% in the past month, reflecting improved market sentiment, although it remains down 6.9% year-to-date [6][49] - The forward P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.0x and 13.1x, respectively, indicating a valuation below historical averages [6][49] - Investment strategies should focus on high-dividend financial stocks, electronic and electric vehicle manufacturing, fintech innovation, and energy transition [6][50]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that by Q2 2025, the global trade environment will be increasingly complex, with escalating tariff conflicts and geopolitical risks. However, domestic advancements in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, are driving progress in the tech industry, while some sectors are beginning to recover from a downturn [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The advanced manufacturing sector is in the process of bottoming out, with capital expenditure showing a continuous decline for six consecutive quarters, but signs of improvement in profitability are emerging [2][3]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector continues to exhibit high prosperity, supported by industry trends and policy backing, with the electronic industry performance on the rise due to overseas demand [2][3]. - The cyclical industries are experiencing significant performance differentiation, with some sectors like non-ferrous metals showing high return on equity (ROE) while others like coal and construction are still facing negative growth [3][4]. - The pharmaceutical sector may have reached its bottom, with a narrowing decline in revenue and net profit, and ROE beginning to recover from low levels [3][4]. - The financial and real estate sectors show structural differentiation, with non-bank financials recovering while real estate continues to decline [3][4]. Group 2: Profit Structure and Trends - A-share profits are increasingly concentrated in manufacturing and cyclical industries, with Q2 2025 net profits totaling 4.83 trillion yuan, where financial real estate accounts for over 50% and cyclical industries contribute about a quarter [4][5]. - The report highlights that industries with improved financial indicators are primarily in high-prosperity electronic sectors and those in the bottom reversal phase, while sectors like food and beverage and coal show deterioration across key financial metrics [4][5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Most industries are experiencing negative growth in employee numbers, indicating a continuous supply clearing process [5][6]. - The report notes that many manufacturing sectors are below historical supply cycles, with some industries like photovoltaic equipment and real estate showing low new capacity but high inventory levels [6][7]. - Demand-side indicators show that sectors with rising fixed asset turnover and high contract liability growth are primarily in military, electronics, and export manufacturing, indicating potential recovery in these areas [7][8]. Group 4: International Market Performance - Approximately two-thirds of industries with significant overseas revenue have seen an increase in their overseas income share, with many maintaining higher gross margins than their domestic counterparts [8][9]. - Industries with high overseas revenue are experiencing marginal improvements in their fundamentals, particularly in the TMT sector and some renewable energy areas [8][9]. Group 5: Dividend Trends - The mid-term dividend phenomenon continues, with banks announcing a total of 237.29 billion yuan in mid-term dividends, alongside significant dividends from sectors like oil and gas, telecommunications, and non-bank financials [9][10]. Group 6: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The report identifies sectors with potential for reversal opportunities, particularly in pharmaceuticals, banking, and AI applications, with a focus on those currently in a low price-to-book (PB) and low ROE state [9][10]. - The electric equipment sector is noted for its value proposition, with ongoing improvements in fundamentals and supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [10][11].

Group 1 - In August, private equity firms conducted over 6,000 A-share company research activities, reflecting a significant increase of over 200% month-on-month, indicating a positive market sentiment among private equity institutions [1][2] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector became the most favored area for private equity research in August, with 1,095 research activities, surpassing the computer sector from July [2][4] - Key companies such as Mindray Medical received the highest attention with 117 research activities, while stocks like Crystal Optoelectronics and Feikai Materials saw significant price increases of 33.11% and 23.41% respectively [2][3] Group 2 - Private equity institutions are focusing on "hard technology" and "big health" sectors, emphasizing high elasticity targets and leading companies in niche industries [4][5] - The increase in research activities in the pharmaceutical sector is attributed to reasonable overall valuations and improvements in innovative drug policies and industry fundamentals [4][5] - Smaller private equity firms, particularly those with assets under management below 500 million, have been notably active, with Shenzhen Shangcheng Asset leading with 143 research activities [3][6] Group 3 - The average stock position of domestic equity private equity firms was 75.55% as of August 22, showing a slight increase, indicating a continued positive positioning despite market fluctuations [7] - The focus on companies with core competitiveness and innovation capabilities suggests that private equity firms prioritize safety margins and certainty in their stock selection [5][6] - Research data serves as a leading indicator for investment trends, with heightened interest in sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics, which may present structural investment opportunities [6][7]

Market Overview - Recent stock market volatility has raised concerns among investors, with significant fluctuations in trading activity despite high transaction volumes exceeding 3 trillion [1][3] - A collective market drop occurred, with over 4,500 stocks declining, highlighting the importance of risk awareness [1] Trading Activity - High trading volumes did not correlate with sustained price increases, indicating potential profit-taking by large investors [1] - The market's trading volume may have peaked at 3.2 trillion, suggesting a possible difficulty in further upward movement [3] Financing Trends - Financing balance surged to a historical high of 2.28 trillion, surpassing levels seen during the 2015 bull market, with a net buy of 35.396 billion [3] - The increase in financing is concentrated in the technology sector, with notable spikes in financing balances for specific tech stocks, indicating potential volatility risks if market adjustments occur [3] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking, utilities, and home appliances performed well, while technology sectors like communications, computing, and defense saw significant declines [5]