期货研究报告 | 金融工程研究 本周宽基指数二八分化上行，双节前建议 降低权益敞口或对冲风险或布局做多波动 03 未来策略研判 率策略 （ 2025年09月22日-2025年09月26日） ——招期金工股票策略环境监控周报 ·研究员-卢星 ·联系电话：13120557519 ·luxing1@cmschina.com.cn ·执业资格号: Z0022829 2025年09月28日 目录 contents 权益市场回顾 01 策略环境监控 02 2 核心观点 | | | 从今年累计收益看，表现最好的三个指数是微盘股指数（+65.84%）、创业板指数（+47.16%）和科创50指数 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （+46.71%），而表现最弱的三个指数是中证红利（-2.27%）、上证指数（+14.21%）和沪深300（+15.63%）。 | | | 指数月度表现 | 展望后市，我们认为近期期权情绪维度显示中证1000，沪深300，中证500情绪上看跌，叠加机构出金等有可能 | | 总体情况 | | 预示市场有可能进一步调整，投资者短期需要做好风险应对。我们建议在仓位层面，股票多头策略整体 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations. This marks the first rate cut in nine months since December 2024 [1] - Historically, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have a higher probability of declining on the day of a rate cut, with 18 out of 32 instances resulting in a drop. The Nasdaq has shown mixed results [1] - Following the Fed's rate cuts, A-shares typically experience declines on the next trading day, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 17 times out of 31, averaging a decline of 0.25% [1] Group 2 - In terms of industry performance post-rate cut, only the oil and petrochemical sector showed a positive average increase of 0.11%, while other sectors like food and beverage, construction materials, and electronics performed poorly with average declines exceeding 0.4% [1] - Precious metals, represented by London gold, have shown significant increases during rate cut cycles, with a notable rise of 48.94% from September 18, 2024, to the present. In contrast, industrial metals like LME copper and energy commodities like WTI crude oil have primarily declined [1] - The dollar index generally trends downward or remains low during rate cut cycles, consistent with historical patterns observed since 2000 [1]

Core Insights - Promoting legal social insurance contributions by enterprises is a crucial aspect of the "anti-involution" policy, aimed at establishing a unified national market and returning factor prices to reasonable levels, which will help raise labor factor prices [2][5] - The short-term policies are accelerating, with new judicial interpretations coming into effect on September 1, 2025, which will invalidate any agreements that exempt employers from social insurance contributions [2][5] Quantitative Analysis - The report conducted quantitative assessments on the potential impact of promoting legal social insurance contributions on A-shares, presenting four scenarios: - **Scenario 1**: If all listed companies' average contribution base exceeds the minimum provincial base for 2024, 485 companies would need to make a back payment of 10.8 billion yuan, representing 0.02% of 2024 revenue and 0.21% of profit [10][11][13] - **Scenario 2**: If the average contribution base exceeds the average provincial base, 1,493 companies would need to back pay 25.7 billion yuan, accounting for 0.04% of revenue and 0.49% of profit [10][11][13] - **Scenario 3**: If the average contribution base exceeds the actual national average for 2023, 3,002 companies would need to back pay 88.1 billion yuan, which is 0.12% of revenue and 1.68% of profit [10][14] - **Scenario 4**: If the average contribution base exceeds the average wage of regulated enterprises in 2023, 3,671 companies would need to back pay 165.7 billion yuan, representing 0.23% of revenue and 3.16% of profit [10][14] Industry Impact - Industries with a high potential for back payments, where the measurement error is controllable, include environmental protection, textile and apparel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and social services [16][17]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.65% to close at 3605.73 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.21% to 11193.06 points. The Sci-Tech 50 Index and the ChiNext Index also saw gains of 1.17% and 1.50%, closing at 1032.84 points and 2345.37 points respectively [1]. - A total of 4391 stocks rose, while 911 stocks fell, and 113 stocks remained unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 18447 billion yuan, a decrease of 198.94 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, all sectors except for banking, telecommunications, and public utilities experienced gains today. The leading sectors included beauty and personal care, non-ferrous metals, steel, retail, non-bank financials, and social services [1]. - The top-performing concept sectors included Hainan Free Trade Port, selected rare metals, rare earths, rare earth permanent magnets, vaccines, lithium mines, small metals, stock trading software, cobalt mines, duty-free shops, lithium extraction from salt lakes, selected medical services, lithium battery cathodes, and stem cells [1].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market's strength has led to short-term adjustment pressure on the bond market, resulting in a passive narrowing of credit spreads, particularly in short-duration bonds, with 1-year credit spreads across various ratings narrowing by 5-7 basis points [1][4] - The report highlights that the overall turnover rate of credit bonds has decreased from 2.36% to 2.21%, reflecting a reduction in market trading activity, with the weighted average transaction duration slightly increasing from 2.8 years to 2.9 years [2] - Fund managers are maintaining an allocation to credit bonds, although the intensity has weakened, with a shift towards shorter-duration bonds, while insurance companies have increased their net purchases of long-duration credit bonds [3] Group 2 - The report suggests that despite the stock market's upward pressure on the bond market, there remains a potential for short-term volatility, and it recommends a strategy of selectively increasing positions during adjustments rather than aggressively chasing gains [4] - The report notes that the average yield of credit bonds has generally increased, with the 3-year and 5-year credit bonds showing significant upward movement, particularly in lower-rated municipal bonds [10][17] - The report identifies specific sectors such as steel and coal that may benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, indicating potential opportunities in industry bonds [4]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, closing at 3359.90 points[1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.16%, ending at 10005.03 points[1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 1.66%, closing at 2009.89 points[1] Sector Performance - The banking sector showed a gain of 2.63%, while the communication sector increased by 1.58%[3] - The beauty and personal care sector declined by 5.86%, and the textile and apparel sector fell by 5.12%[3] - The pharmaceutical and biological sector decreased by 4.35%[3] Margin Trading - The total margin trading balance reached 18124.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous week[15] - Margin trading balance accounted for 2.29% of the A-share market's circulating market value, an increase of 0.58%[15] - The total margin trading transaction volume was 5202.05 billion yuan, down by 11.73% from the previous week[16] Industry Trends - The top five industries with increased margin trading balances were pharmaceuticals (1.375 billion yuan), mining (0.405 billion yuan), and commercial trade (0.300 billion yuan)[22] - The top five industries with decreased margin trading balances included non-ferrous metals (-1.959 billion yuan) and electronics (-1.314 billion yuan)[22]

Core Insights - As of June 20, the latest market financing balance is 1.8009 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.232 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Among the industries, only two saw an increase in financing balance, with the petroleum and petrochemical industry experiencing the largest increase of 69.3667 million yuan [1] - A total of 29 industries reported a decrease in financing balance, with non-bank financials, computers, and electronics showing the most significant declines of 8.86 billion yuan, 8.52 billion yuan, and 8.41 billion yuan respectively [1] Industry Summary - **Petroleum and Petrochemical**: Latest financing balance is 25.722 billion yuan, with an increase of 0.6936 billion yuan, representing a growth of 0.27% [1] - **Social Services**: Latest financing balance is 9.562 billion yuan, with an increase of 0.14139 billion yuan, representing a growth of 0.15% [1] - **Food and Beverage**: Latest financing balance is 51.926 billion yuan, with a decrease of 6.03 billion yuan, representing a decline of 1.15% [1] - **Non-bank Financials**: Latest financing balance is 150.247 billion yuan, with a decrease of 8.86 billion yuan, representing a decline of 0.59% [2] - **Computers**: Latest financing balance is 135.307 billion yuan, with a decrease of 8.52 billion yuan, representing a decline of 0.63% [2] - **Electronics**: Latest financing balance is 207.011 billion yuan, with a decrease of 8.41 billion yuan, representing a decline of 0.40% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, rating adjustments for convertible bonds may be relatively optimistic. With the expectation of economic recovery and policy support such as expanding domestic demand and debt resolution, credit risks are relatively controllable, but industry differentiation and tail risks still need attention [12]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but remains at a relatively low level in the long - term. The risk premium shows good allocation value. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and the demand side has certain support. The overall valuation of convertible bonds is in a reasonable range, and the valuation center is expected to fluctuate moderately in the future [15]. - Attention should be paid to popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, high - dividend sectors under the Chinese - characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [15]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 3.1.1. Recent Rating Adjustments - As of Friday, 237 convertible bonds have disclosed their 2025 annual follow - up rating announcements, accounting for 50.3% of the total number of convertible bonds in the market. Among the updated - rating convertible bonds, 14 have had their ratings downgraded, and the adjustment ratio of medium - and high - rated convertible bonds is significantly lower than in previous years [10]. - Rating downgrades have a short - term negative impact on convertible bonds, but the overall market impact may be relatively controllable. The prices of convertible bonds with high institutional holdings and rating downgrades have relatively large adjustments, while those with low institutional holdings and relatively low original ratings are less affected [10]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market showed daily fluctuations and a weekly overall correction. The A - share market's three major indexes rose on Monday, adjusted on Tuesday, rose slightly on Wednesday, fell on Thursday, and adjusted with volume contraction on Friday [14]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but is still at a relatively low level. The export order rebound has led to a narrow improvement in the May PMI. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and the demand side has support. The convertible bond valuation is expected to fluctuate moderately in the future. Attention should be paid to different sectors [15]. 3.2. Convertible Bond Market Weekly Tracking 3.2.1. Equity Market Declined, and Pro - cyclical Sectors such as Banks Strengthened - This week, the main equity market indexes declined. Among them, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.07%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%. The market style was more inclined to large - cap growth [18]. - Three Shenwan industry indexes rose, and 28 declined. The banking, communication, and electronics industries rose, with increases of 2.63%, 1.58%, and 0.95% respectively [21]. 3.2.2. Convertible Bond Market Declined, and the 100 - yuan Premium Rate Decreased - This week, the convertible bond market declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.17%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.11%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 0.59%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds decreased [23]. - Five convertible bond industries rose, and 24 declined. The non - bank finance, public utilities, and banking industries led the gains, while the media, beauty care, and social services industries led the losses [27]. - Most individual convertible bonds declined. The top five weekly gainers were Jingrui Convertible Bond, Liande Convertible Bond, Tianchuang Convertible Bond, Xuerong Convertible Bond, and Shouhua Convertible Bond. The top five weekly losers were Jinling Convertible Bond, Zhite Convertible Bond, Jindan Convertible Bond, Dongshi Convertible Bond, and Zhongchong Zhuan 2 Convertible Bond [29]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate rose. The weighted conversion premium rate of the whole market was 48.62%, up 1.02 pct from last weekend. The 100 - yuan parity premium rate was 18.89%, down 1.74 pct from last weekend [34]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of various types of convertible bonds declined. The valuations of convertible bonds with a parity of 80 - 90 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan declined, while most others increased. The valuations of AAA - rated convertible bonds increased, while those of other ratings decreased. The valuations of large - cap convertible bonds increased, while those of other scale segments decreased [42]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom. As of Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was below the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds was below the 50th percentile [42]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, AAA - rated convertible bonds rose, while those of other ratings declined. The AAA convertible bonds rose 0.43%, and AA + convertible bonds fell 0.12% [55]. - This week, large - cap convertible bonds rose, while those of other scales declined. The small - cap convertible bonds fell 0.75%, and the medium - small - cap convertible bonds fell 0.46% [57]. 3.3. Convertible Bond Supply and Clause Tracking 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - One new convertible bond was listed this week (Hengshuai Convertible Bond), and five issued but unlisted convertible bonds are pending (Luwei Convertible Bond, Dianhua Convertible Bond, Anke Convertible Bond, Xizhen Convertible Bond, and Huachen Convertible Bond). One primary approval was obtained this week, and Maiwei Co., Ltd. (1.967 billion yuan) passed the shareholders' meeting [62]. - From the beginning of 2023 to June 20, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 92, with a total scale of 146.099 billion yuan [63]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - This week, 9 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 15 announced no downward revisions, 5 proposed downward revisions, and 1 actually had a downward revision [66][67]. - Six convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 5 announced no early redemptions, and 1 announced an early redemption. As of the end of this week, 4 convertible bonds were still in the put - option declaration period, and 35 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [71][73].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.05% closing at 3286.65 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index also down by 0.05% closing at 9849.80 points. The ChiNext Index fell by 0.13% to 1931.94 points. Overall, 3556 stocks rose while 1670 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 10221 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 34.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][13]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included Beauty Care, Machinery Equipment, Media, Light Industry Manufacturing, and Basic Chemicals, with respective gains of 2.60%, 1.44%, 1.27%, 1.04%, and 0.87%. Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines included Utilities, Comprehensive, Oil & Petrochemicals, Coal, and Social Services, with respective losses of 1.78%, 0.97%, 0.55%, 0.51%, and 0.47% [1][13]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today were Animal Vaccines, Marketing Communication, Medical Beauty, Auto Parts, Chemical Fibers, and Virtual Reality, among others. These sectors showed significant upward movement, while sectors like Electricity, Baijiu, and Insurance experienced pullbacks [2][11].