（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月29日，招金黄金发布公告称，公司2025年第八次临时股东会审议通过《关于2026年 度日常关联交易预计的议案》《关于续签暨关联交易的议案》。 ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,353 per troy ounce Wednesday, down 0.8% from Tuesday’s closing price of $4,386.30. The price of gold also declined in early trading. Despite the price volatility this week, gold is tracking to realize a 2025 gain of roughly 65%. That would be the second-best calendar-year performance in nearly five decades. According to the In Gold We Trust report, the yellow metal’s top-performing year was 1979, when the price of gold grew by over 126%. The worst year was 1981, when gol ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown significant growth, with a 65% gain in 2025, driven by strong demand from central banks and geopolitical risks [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold futures opened at $4,340 per troy ounce, nearly unchanged from the previous closing price of $4,341.10, with early trading seeing prices rise above $4,400 [1]. - The one-year gain for gold was reported at 74.5% as of December 29, 2025 [4]. - The price of gold closed at $4,341.10 on December 31, 2025, marking its best annual performance since 1979 [2]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - Continued strong demand from global central banks is a key factor in gold's price increase, as banks diversify away from the U.S. dollar [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine and U.S.-Venezuela relations, have bolstered safe-haven demand for gold [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Experts recommend varying gold allocations based on individual investment goals, with suggestions ranging from 0% to 20% [5][6]. - A 2% to 5% allocation is suggested for income investors, while growth-oriented investors may consider 10% to 15% [9]. - Some experts advocate for a higher allocation of 20% in physical gold or gold ETFs as a wealth protection strategy [13].

以下文章来源于笔记财经晨会 ，作者笔记小助手 笔记财经晨会 . 有观点的财经晨会 点击上方 蓝字 "笔记财经晨会" 关注我们 今日金曲：非酋-薛明媛 笔友们早上好！点击上方音频收听详细晨会内容，音频末尾放送今日金曲，也可以留言区点歌哦！ 一、上周热点回顾：精准预判，两大板块轮番大涨 上周我们周一周二连讲了两天海南封关， 海南指数两天大涨11.02% ，周三、周四、周五连讲了三天商业航天， 航天指数三天暴涨13.77% ，说 明我们的晨会还是很有含金量的，欢迎大家在评论区积极讨论！ 二、贵金属板块深度解析：黄金避险，白银实干 近期贵金属市场迎来史诗级行情：白银逼近80美元，黄金站稳4500美元高位。一句话总结核心逻辑： 黄金靠避险稳坐王座，白银凭工业 + 金融双 核驱动疯狂上涨。 （一）黄金：定海神针的三大上涨逻辑 黄金的牛市是传统优势的集中体现，核心驱动力有三： （二）白银：工业引擎加持的"疯狂赛车" 白银涨幅碾压黄金，核心是工业属性+金融属性的双核驱动： 1. 降息预期降低持有成本： 美联储2026年降息预期强烈，无息资产黄金的持有机会成本下降；美元走弱也让黄金对全球买家更具吸引力。 2. 全球央行增持成刚 ...

行 业 华福证券 黄金 2025 年 12 月 29 日 研 究 行 业 专 题 黄金 黄金供需重构下的机遇：历史复盘与未来定价逻 辑展望 投资要点： 黄金简介 黄金是一种特殊的贵金属，本身不产生利息，但兼具商品属性、 货币属性与金融属性。其物理特性稳定，具有良好的延展性、可塑性 和导电导热性，广泛应用于珠宝首饰、工业技术以及投资储备领域。 黄金供给需求端 报 告 2010 年至 2024 年全球黄金总供应量从 4317 吨增长至 4957 吨，年 复合增速为 1%。其中全球矿产金产量年复合增速为 2%，占总供应量 比例从 64%增长至 74%，但 2016 年后增速明显放缓，近年黄金供应量 增加主因金价上涨后回收金的增加。预计 2025-2027 年全球黄金总供 应量为 5034、5095、5143 吨，三年供应增速为 1.5%/1.2%/0.9%。 黄金的需求主要包含金饰制造、投资、央行购金及科技用金。2000 年至 2025 年，黄金主要需求结构由金饰制造和投资需求主导转变为由 金饰制造、投资需求、央行和各官方机构共同构成。近两年需求增长 主因投资需求和央行购金的增加，其中投资需求增长在 25 年前三季 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.71% to close at 25,635.23 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.30% to 5,483.01 points [2] - The total market turnover for the day was HKD 224.51 billion [2] Stock Performance - Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, 22 stocks rose while 67 fell, with notable declines in Sands China Limited (-4.46%), JD Health (-3.42%), and CK Hutchison Holdings (-3.35%) [2][3] - BYD Company saw an increase of 3.74%, closing at HKD 97.10 per share, while Geely Automobile rose by 3.43% to HKD 17.50 per share [3] Geely Automobile Buyback - Geely Automobile repurchased 1.956 million shares on December 24, involving HKD 33.14 million, and has repurchased a total of 22.434 million shares in the last 30 days, totaling HKD 385 million [4] Industry Insights - The commercial rocket sector received a boost from the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new listing guidelines, which clarify the requirements for commercial rocket companies to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [6][9] - The new guidelines are expected to accelerate capital operations for rocket enterprises, with a focus on long-term structural benefits rather than short-term market reactions [10] Gold Sector Performance - The gold sector faced a downturn due to a drop in gold prices, with major companies like China National Gold Group and Zijin Mining experiencing declines of 5% or more [11][12] - The domestic gold price fell, with SHFE gold closing at CNY 1,007.18 per gram, down 0.91% [12] Future Market Outlook - UBS forecasts that the upward trend in the Chinese market is likely to continue through 2026, driven by advanced manufacturing and technological self-reliance [13]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.71% to close at 25,635.23 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also saw slight decreases of 0.30% and 0.26% respectively [2] - Among the major stocks, Sands China Limited dropped by 4.46% to HKD 19.91 per share, JD Health fell by 3.42% to HKD 56.50 per share, and CK Hutchison Holdings decreased by 3.35% to HKD 53.45 per share, leading the blue-chip declines [3] - BYD Company Limited and Geely Automobile Holdings Limited saw increases of 3.74% and 3.43% respectively, indicating some positive movement in the automotive sector [3] Group 2 - Asia Pacific Satellite saw a significant increase of nearly 12% in trading, driven by the announcement of new listing standards for commercial rocket companies by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [7][8] - The new guidelines specify that successful payload launches will be a core requirement for commercial rocket companies seeking to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, providing clarity for several companies aiming for public offerings [10] - Analysts from Guotai Junan and Zhongyin Securities noted that the new listing standards could accelerate capital operations in the commercial space sector, transitioning the industry from a phase of policy expectations to one of institutional realization [11] Group 3 - Gold stocks experienced a widespread decline due to a drop in gold prices, with companies like WanGuo Gold Group and Zijin Mining falling by 6.59% and 5.86% respectively [12][13] - The domestic gold price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at CNY 1,007.18 per gram, down by 0.91%, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing gold prices [13] Group 4 - UBS Wealth Management's report suggests that the upward trend in the Chinese market is expected to continue through 2026, driven by advanced manufacturing and technological self-reliance as new growth engines [15][16] - Despite ongoing geopolitical risks and potential market volatility, the report indicates that there remains upward potential for the Chinese stock market as domestic investors enter the market and global capital reallocates [16]

Group 1: Overall Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing a significant transformation due to geopolitical shifts and economic changes, leading to a re-evaluation of resource values and pricing mechanisms [18][24][25] - The year 2025 marked a historic bull market for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, which redefined their financial and hedging attributes [18][27] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown remarkable performance, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index achieving an annual increase of 87.05%, outperforming major market indices [20] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The long-term bullish logic supporting gold remains intact, with expectations for a structured upward trend in gold prices through 2026, driven by a weakening US dollar and rising debt risks [3][34] - The anticipated transition in US Federal Reserve leadership is expected to create short-term trading opportunities around gold prices, influenced by market uncertainties [4][34] - The demand for gold from central banks is expected to slow down, impacting the overall market dynamics for gold in the near term [3][34] Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper supply is entering a long-term structural bottleneck, with a significant decrease in new mine production expected by 2026, enhancing the bargaining power of core mines [5][9] - The smelting sector is facing a "zero processing fee" era, leading to accelerated industry consolidation as high-cost smelting enterprises exit the market [9][10] - The fundamental support for copper prices is strong, with an expected widening supply-demand gap in 2026, indicating a trend of rising prices [9][10] Group 4: Aluminum Market Trends - The aluminum industry is witnessing a shift in value dynamics, with a focus on structural premiums due to increased reliance on imported resources [10][11] - The market for alumina is expected to face challenges due to oversupply and pressure on profitability, while the electrolytic aluminum sector is poised for growth driven by energy value [10][11] - The profitability within the aluminum industry is anticipated to concentrate further towards the downstream smelting segment, presenting investment opportunities [10][11] Group 5: Lithium Market Outlook - The lithium market is projected to experience a dual increase in supply and demand in 2026, although there are risks of mismatched release rhythms [11][12] - The recovery in lithium prices is expected to be supported by a rebound in demand from the energy storage sector, despite uncertainties in the electric vehicle market [11][13] - Investors are advised to monitor the construction and installation pace of domestic energy storage projects to better capture investment opportunities in the lithium sector [11][13]

Group 1: Global Economic Context - In the post-pandemic era, global economies have largely implemented monetary and fiscal easing to counteract recession, leading to rising government deficits and debt levels [1][24] - The main paths to resolve high government debt amid growth pressures are identified as: growth through technological advancement, inflation to erode debt, and fiscal tightening [25][28] - The current global economic environment is characterized by a trend of re-inflation and economic recovery, supported by continued monetary easing and fiscal expansion [3][24] Group 2: AI as a Growth Engine - AI is viewed as the sole engine for growth-driven debt reduction, with the industry still in an upward trend despite concerns over a potential bubble [2][45] - The market sentiment around AI remains optimistic but not euphoric, with high GPU utilization indicating no excessive idle capacity [52][66] - Major tech companies are experiencing significant profit growth, with Nvidia's profit growth projected at 581.3% for 2023, indicating strong performance in the AI sector [91] Group 3: Inflation and Gold - Gold is expected to benefit from the ongoing debt crisis, with three main reasons supporting a bullish outlook: macroeconomic narratives favoring gold as a safe haven, declining real interest rates, and continued demand from ETFs and central banks [2][25] - The inflationary environment is anticipated to support commodity prices, including gold, as governments face challenges in managing high debt levels [24][25] Group 4: Asset Allocation for 2026 - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 suggests a focus on assets that cannot be changed by the world (like precious metals) and those that can change the world (like the AI industry) [11][12] - The equity markets are expected to be supported by loose fiscal and monetary policies, with a slow bull market anticipated for A/H shares and a neutral to bullish outlook for US stocks [3][12] - Commodity markets are projected to see upward momentum, particularly in gold, silver, and copper, driven by global energy transitions and AI-related infrastructure demands [3][12]

| 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 三 | | --- | --- | --- | | 万国黄金集团 | 7.800 | -6.59% | | 3939.HK | | | | 紫金黄金国际 | 144.500 | -5.86% | | 2259.HK | | | | 坛金矿业 | 0.520 | -5.45% | | 0621.HK | | | | 赤峰黄金 | 30.120 | -5.40% | | 6693.HK | | | | 山东黄金 | 35.200 | -5.27% | | 1787.HK | | | | 招金矿业 | 31.440 | -5.24% | | 1818.HK | | | | 中国黄金国际 | 153.800 | -5.00% | | 2099.HK | | | | 龙资源 | 6.620 | -4.89% | | --- | --- | --- | | 1712.HK | | | | 灵宝黄金 | 18.160 | -4.27% | | 3330.HK | | | | 潼关黄金 | 2.780 | -4.14% | | 0340.HK | | | | 梦金园 | 13.080 | -3. ...