2025.05. 13 本文字数：1500，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周一下午，中美双方发表《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。声明公布后，欧亚股市率先拉 升，中国香港恒生指数尾盘涨幅扩大至近3%，欧洲斯托克600指数和德国DAX指数创1年新高，美股 随后接棒狂飙，道指大涨1160点，标普500指数和纳指分别大涨3.26%和4.35%，后者较4月份关税抛 售中的最低收盘价高出22%，进入技术性牛市。 罗切斯特表示，这项为期90天的协议将美国的有效关税税率大幅降低。"同样值得注意的是，（官员 们）在新闻发布会上淡化了谈判持续90天的要求，即'只要谈判是建设性的'。这对国际贸易意味着， 事实上的'关税墙'已经降低到更可行的水平，也提高了其他国家的市场定价，以便在未来与美国谈判 时获得类似的待遇。"他说。 美股有望进一步走高 市场观察人士认为，协议利好风险偏好，并预计短期内美股有望获得更多动能。 中美谈判成果振奋市场 第一财经记者汇总发现，机构普遍认为协议可能会重新引发风险偏好，使包括美国在内的全球权益资 产受益。 摩根大通资产管理公司亚太区首席市场策略师许长泰（Tai Hui）在周一给客 ...

Group 1 - Wall Street bets on the easing of US-China trade tensions, signaling an end to the comprehensive tariff war [2][5] - The S&P 500 index surged by 3.3%, and the Nasdaq 100 index returned to a bull market, led by large tech stocks [2] - Safe-haven assets declined, with gold dropping over $90, and the dollar rising more than 1%, marking its largest single-day gain since Trump's election victory [2] Group 2 - The easing of tariffs between the US and China exceeded expectations, establishing a framework for continued discussions, which is what the stock market hopes for [6] - Investors are now focused on whether temporary solutions can evolve into lasting agreements, indicating a shift in sentiment towards risk assets [6] - The temporary pause in trade tensions provides US companies with more time to adapt and plan for contingencies [6] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley strategists noted that while investor sentiment towards the US stock market is improving, it is premature to sound the alarm [6] - The firm identified four factors necessary for a sustained rally, with progress made on two: optimism around a trade agreement with China and stable earnings revisions [6] - Upcoming economic data, including inflation, retail sales, and earnings reports, will be crucial in maintaining market momentum [6]

Group 1 - The easing of tensions in the US-China trade war has led to a significant rebound in global risk assets, with US stock markets experiencing substantial gains [3][5][6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged approximately 1000 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rose over 3.5% and 2.7% respectively [1][6] - Market optimism is driven by hopes for a broader agreement between the two largest economies, resulting in a decline in gold and safe-haven currencies [3][5] Group 2 - The reduction of tariffs between the US and China exceeded expectations, with a framework for ongoing dialogue established, which is positively viewed by the stock market [5][7] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet announced that both countries agreed to lower "reciprocal" tariffs by 115% within 90 days, reducing US tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods to 10% [7] - UBS expects that the uncertainty surrounding trade has peaked, predicting that by the end of the year, the actual tariff levels in the US will gradually decrease to around 15% [8] Group 3 - Major technology stocks saw significant increases, with Apple rising nearly 6% as it considers raising prices for its upcoming iPhone series while avoiding attributing the price hike to US tariffs [8][9] - Individual stock performances included Micron Technology up 8.57%, Amazon up 7.54%, and Tesla up 6.79%, reflecting a strong rally in the tech sector [9] - The Chinese stock index also rose over 4%, and the Chinese yuan appreciated by 400 points, indicating a positive market response in China as well [9]

内容提要 今年年初以来，美国经济基本面和资产表现走弱，部分投资机构支持的美国"例外论"出现了反转。表面上看主要是受到短期内美国经济衰退担忧上升、科技 行业估值调整以及政策不确定性等因素的影响，但其背后反映出美国政治经济更深层次的问题，包括债务驱动型增长模式亟需调整，国内政治两极化导致政 策不连贯，以及试图重塑"美国优先"的国际秩序打击了全球投资者信心，很可能在长期演变出更大风险并影响全球资产配置逻辑。 一、美国"例外论"及其转向 广义的美国"例外论"（US exceptionalism）通常认为，出于历史、地理、意识形态等各方面的原因，美国优于其他现代国家，主张美国应当在全球事务中发 挥领导作用。2024年11月特朗普重新当选美国总统后，部分投资机构提出了狭义的美国"例外论"，即认为美国资本市场表现将延续疫情复苏以来的优异表 现。 概括来看，美国"例外论"主要受到三方面宏观因素支撑：一是对美国经济韧性的信心，即使疫情后面对高利率环境，美国仍通过大规模财政刺激实现了居民 消费和企业投资的强劲增长。摩根大通曾指出美国是唯一回到疫情前增长路径的国家，并认为特朗普政府的减税和减少监管政策将进一步增加美国的经济增 长动 ...

美联储周三如预期维持基准隔夜贷款利率不变。美联储主席鲍威尔在政策声明后的记者会上表示，美国 关税目前造成的影响远超过先前的预期，若现行关税政策维持不变，可能导致经济增长放缓、长期通胀 飙升及失业率上升。 北京时间5月8日晚，美股周四高开。美国总统特朗普宣布美英两国已达成贸易协议。美国劳动生产率自 2022年以来首次下降。 三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.51%，纳指涨1.02%，标普500指数涨0.68%。苹果、英伟达、Meta Platforms、特斯拉及亚马逊等科技股巨头普涨。周三有消息称特朗普政府拟撤销原定本月下旬生效的拜 登时期人工智能芯片出口管制措施，助推了这波涨势。 美东时间周四，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台Truth Social发文称："这份与英国达成的完整全面协议将 巩固美英未来多年的双边关系。"此前他已多次发帖预告这一消息。据记者在X上引述一名政府官员指 出，美国与英国的贸易协议范围将是有限的，着重于未来承诺，且仍然保留了现有10%的基准关税。 中美高层即将举行贸易会谈。经济学家认为，鉴于双方在战略优先事项上均不愿妥协，达成全面协议 将"耗时漫长且可能无果而终"。 瑞银全球财富管理首席投资长马克 ...

Group 1 - The central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts and mortgage relaxations, have injected significant liquidity into the market, yet the market remains cautious around the 3344-point resistance level [3][4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts was anticipated, but the mixed signals from Chairman Powell regarding inflation and potential future rate cuts have led to volatility in the dollar index and a surge in gold prices [3][4] - The technology sector is experiencing notable activity, particularly with the resurgence of the Hongmeng PC, which has positively impacted related stocks, although caution is advised regarding the sustainability of such trends [3][4] Group 2 - Consumer recovery indicators, such as the May holiday data, show promise, but there are concerns about the sustainability of certain "pseudo-influencer" brands that rely on subsidies [4] - The new energy vehicle sector is witnessing a rise in sales despite falling lithium prices, leading to improved profit margins for manufacturers [4] - Investment strategies suggest maintaining a balanced portfolio, with a focus on high-quality manufacturing and consumer sectors, while being cautious of market volatility [5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing significant shifts due to capital rotation, increasing political risks, and a more segmented market environment, leading to varied performances across asset classes [2][16]. Group 1: Market Overview - In Q1, aggressive deleveraging occurred in the US and cryptocurrency markets, influenced by unexpected tariffs imposed by President Trump on Canada, Mexico, the EU, and China [3]. - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices saw substantial declines, while European indices like the DAX reached historical highs, indicating a shift in capital from US equities to overseas assets [3]. - The fear and greed index dropped from 66 (greed) to 20 (extreme fear) by March, reflecting market sentiment [8]. Group 2: Asset Performance - Gold emerged as the standout asset in Q1, with prices soaring to $3,000 per ounce, driven by political and trade tensions, alongside a dovish stance from central banks [9]. - The oil market remains uncertain, with prices fluctuating due to increased supply from Kazakhstan and the US, while demand concerns persist [10]. - The US stock market is under pressure, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices falling below key moving averages, while European and Asian indices show strength [11]. Group 3: Currency Movements - The Euro has rebounded against the dollar, influenced by discussions on increased military spending and rising bond yields in Germany [4][14]. - The Japanese Yen is gaining attractiveness as a safe-haven asset, with inflation rates exceeding the Bank of Japan's target and long-term bond yields surpassing 2.5% [5][15]. - The forex market has been active, with the Euro and Yen strengthening, while the dollar's performance remains mixed amid tariff chaos and economic signals [13]. Group 4: Key Themes for Q2 - Capital is rotating from the US to Europe and Asia, driven by uncertainty and trade policies [16]. - Despite market declines, volatility remains low, indicating investor hesitation rather than panic selling [17]. - Safe-haven assets like gold and the Yen continue to attract inflows, while speculative risk assets face a challenging environment [17].

美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.95%，纳指跌0.87%，标普500指数跌0.77%。大型科技股多数下跌， Meta跌超2%，特斯拉、英特尔跌超1%。 ...

❑ 五一假期期间全球股票市场行情突出 5 月 1 日至 2 日内地金融市场休市，全球其他金融市场正常进行交易，整体来看： 科技股主线行情表现突出，恒生科技与纳斯达克分别领涨港股及美股市场，带动 欧洲及其他亚洲股票市场整体收涨。债券市场行情分化，2 年美债、10 年美债收 益率分别上行 23BP 及 16BP，日债收益率下行，德债收益率基本持平。美元指数 有所反弹，兑日元、欧元、英镑等主要货币均有所升值，但美元兑离岸人民币出 现一定幅度贬值迹象。商品市场黄金、白银价格再度出现较大幅度下跌。 ❑ 五一假期要闻汇总 美国 4 月 PCE 同比增长 2.3%，为 2024 年 10 月以来新低，小幅超过预期值 2.2%， 环比零增长持平预期。更为市场关注的核心通胀层面，4 月核心 PCE 同比增长 2.6% 持平预期，环比零增长低于预期，指向核心通胀边际进一步降温，关税冲击对美 国通胀的影响暂未显现。4 月新增非农就业 17.7 万人，预期 13 万人，4 月失业率 录得 4.2%，与前值及预测值持平，平均时薪同比及环比增速均较前值出现放缓迹 象，显示美国劳动力市场依旧保持较强韧性。抢出口效应带动下，美国 2025 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced a collective rise, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices achieving a nine-day winning streak, driven by stronger-than-expected non-farm employment data [1][2] - Major US technology stocks saw an overall increase, with the Tech Giants Index rising by 0.89%, while individual stocks like Meta and Nvidia rose by 4.34% and 2.59% respectively [4] - Chinese assets also performed actively, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 3.51% and several individual stocks showing significant gains, such as Xiaoma Zhixing up over 21% [4] Group 2 - The latest non-farm employment data indicated an increase of 177,000 jobs in April, surpassing the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [6][7] - Following the employment report, Goldman Sachs and Barclays adjusted their forecasts, delaying the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cut from June to July [1][7] - The market shows significant divergence regarding the total number of rate cuts expected this year, fluctuating between three to four cuts, each by 25 basis points [7]