Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is $5182.40, with a change of -$27.30 [1] - London Silver's latest price is $86.23, with a change of -$2.30 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is $2223.00, with a change of $91.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is $1676.00, with a change of $26.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is $87.25, with a change of $3.80 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is $13043.50, with a change of -$32.50 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 98.94, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.16, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.34, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 158.06, with no change [1] - The latest value of the US 10 - year TIPS is 1.82, with no change [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 10716.45, with a change of -23.91 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 251.86, with a change of -7.32 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1077.28, with a change of 3.71 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15539.06, with a change of -115.51 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 458.19, with no change in inventory and a change of -1.00 in deferred - fee payment direction [2] - SGE Gold's deferred - fee payment direction latest value is 2, with no change [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as the Middle - East situation, inflation, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9][10] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices denominated in London gold fell 0.14% to $5182.875 per ounce on Wednesday night. Domestic gold exchange 9999 rose 0.49% to 1150.42, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract rose 0.17% to 1151.98 yuan per gram [1] - **Fundamentals**: US inflation continues to cool, with February CPI up 2.4% and core CPI up 2.5% year - on - year. The inflation problem caused by the Iran issue has not been reflected in the data. The IEA approved the release of a record 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow out slightly, and some metal inventories changed [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold; for silver, short - term investors are advised to leave the market and wait and see [1] Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated yesterday [2] - **Fundamentals**: The Middle - East situation intensified, and metals were under pressure. The supply of copper ore remained tight, but refined copper inventories increased rapidly. The spot premium of flat - water copper in East and South China was 30 yuan and 20 yuan respectively, and the refined - scrap price difference was about 1200 yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [2] - **Aluminum** - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 1.35% to 25215 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 260 yuan per ton, with the LME price at 3440 US dollars per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [2] - **Alumina** - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 1.06% to 2869 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 192 yuan per ton [2][3] - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants was relatively stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to maintain a shock operation [3] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8620 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 0.06%, an increase in open interest of 4910 lots to 248864 lots (+2.01%), and a decrease in trading volume of 60018 lots to 122488 lots (-32.89%) [3] - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces increased this week, mainly in Xinjiang. Social inventories decreased slightly. The output of polysilicon in February was within 80,000 tons, and it is expected to exceed 80,000 tons per month after resuming work in March. The organic silicon industry's quotation increased, and the weekly output increased slightly. The price of aluminum alloy continued to rise, and the operating rate was relatively stable [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The disk is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 9000. If large factories still have resumption plans, consider shorting on rallies [3] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 155,040 yuan per ton (-7960), with a closing price decrease of 4.8% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) remained unchanged at 2240 US dollars per ton, and the SMM electric carbon price increased by 500 yuan to 159,000 yuan per ton. The weekly output increased by 768 tons to 22590 tons. SMM expects the production volume in March to be 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7%. The production volume of lithium iron phosphate in March is expected to be 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3%; the production volume of ternary materials in March is expected to be 84,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1%. It is expected to maintain destocking in Q1, and the sample inventory decreased by 720 tons to 99,300 tons [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The low - level inventory supports the price to fluctuate around the 150,000 - yuan center. It is expected that the destocking amplitude will narrow in March, and the subsequent upward driving force still needs to wait and see the prosperity of the new energy vehicle terminal consumption [3] - **Polycrystalline Silicon** - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 42590 yuan per ton, up 140 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.33%, a decrease in open interest of 104 lots to 34909 lots (-0.30%), and a decrease in trading volume of 2146 lots to 4663 lots (-31.52%) [3] - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output remained flat. The industry inventory increased by 4.2% this week. The warehouse receipts increased slightly, mainly due to the registration of the Xinte brand. The prices of downstream products all declined slightly. The production schedules of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March have recovered month - on - month, but the year - on - year performance is still weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by position limits, the liquidity of the polycrystalline silicon futures contract is limited. The disk is expected to fluctuate between 40000 - 44000. Pay attention to the actual purchase order prices of downstream products [3] - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated yesterday [3] - **Fundamentals**: The Middle - East situation intensified, and market risk appetite decreased significantly. The import of tin ore is gradually recovering, but there is still a large gap from the pre - shutdown level. Yesterday, the warehouse receipts increased by 322 tons, and the premium of deliverable brands was 1000 - 1500 yuan. The London structure was 250 contango [3] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [3] Black Industry - **Rebar** - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3125 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan per ton from the previous night's closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand for building materials increased by 1710000 tons to 3920000 tons, and the output increased by 450000 tons to 4130000 tons. The steel spot market transaction is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply and demand are weak. The demand expectation for building materials is weak, but the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year, and the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is recovering, and direct and indirect exports remain at a high level. The inventory level is still high, but the inventory accumulation amplitude is slightly higher than the seasonality. The profit of steel mills is poor, and the output increase space is limited [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions. The reference range for RB05 is 3090 - 3150 [4] - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 791 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan per ton from the previous night's closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume of Australia and Brazil decreased by 13% to 23.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9%. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral. The molten iron output decreased significantly month - on - month, and was basically the same year - on - year. The first round of coke price reduction was implemented, and there is still an expectation of further reduction. The profit of steel mills is poor, and the subsequent increase slope of blast furnace output is limited. The supply is in line with the seasonal law. The inventory of blast furnace steel mills is slightly high, and the inventory days are above the historical average. Although the total port inventory has increased by about 20 million tons to 170 million tons year - on - year, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory at ports is extremely low, and the structural contradiction persists. The iron ore maintains a forward discount structure but is slightly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is slightly on the high side [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 770 - 800 [4] - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1150.5 yuan per ton, up 32 yuan per ton from the previous night's closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the production restrictions during the Two Sessions, the molten iron output decreased by 57000 tons to 228000 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 29000 tons. The first round of coke price increase was implemented before the festival, and steel mills are currently planning a price reduction. The profit of steel mills is poor, and the subsequent increase slope of blast furnace output may be gentle. The port customs clearance at the supply end remains at a high level, and the inventories at various links are differentiated. The inventories at ports and mines are high, while the inventories at other links are low, and the overall inventory level is low. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure is maintained, and the futures valuation is on the high side [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions. The reference range for JM05 is 1110 - 1170 [4] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to rise [5] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, and more than half of the Brazilian soybeans have been harvested. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and exports meet expectations. In general, the global supply - demand is expected to be loose [5] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, US soybeans are strong, trading on the macro - crude oil drive. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is also strong in the short term, but the difficulty of unilateral trading increases. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the realization of South American production [5] - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices were strong, and spot prices continued to rise [5] - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply and demand, the grain sales progress is close to 70%, the grain sales pressure is not large, and the willingness to sell is not strong, with a slow sales progress. The inventories at ports and downstream are at a low level, downstream enterprises are in losses, but their bargaining power is weak, and the current spot price is still dominated by the producing areas. Pay attention to the weather and the purchase - sales rhythm [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: With little remaining grain and downstream restocking, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [6] - **Fats and Oils** - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [6] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, MPOB showed that the Malaysian production in February decreased by 18.6% month - on - month, and it is expected to enter the seasonal production increase period later. On the demand side, MPOB showed that the Malaysian exports in February decreased by 22.5% month - on - month. The Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.9% to 2.7 million tons [6] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, fats and oils are strong following crude oil, but the difficulty of unilateral trading increases. Pay attention to the subsequent crude oil and the production in the producing areas [6] - **Sugar** - **Market Performance**: The 05 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5429 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.24%. The basis of Nanning spot - Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract is 26 yuan per ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processing after tax with additional quota is 610 yuan per ton [6] - **Fundamentals**: Due to the soaring international crude oil price, the ethanol price has risen, and the market is worried that the upcoming new - season Brazil may use sugarcane to produce ethanol, with an expected significant reduction in the sugar - making ratio. Coupled with the under - expected production increase in India, the international sugar price has returned to above 14 cents per pound. In terms of domestic sugar pressing, the estimated sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 crushing season has been continuously raised to 7.2 - 7.3 million tons. The single - month production in Guangxi in February is expected to reach the highest level in recent years, and Guangxi has entered the inventory accumulation stage. Recently, macro - funds have allocated long positions in sugar. Affected by the oil price and policy support, it is difficult for Zhengzhou sugar to fall in the short term. The rebound height depends on the cooling of the Middle - East situation, the trend of the oil price, and the sugar - ethanol ratio in the new - season Brazil [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see [6] - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: Overnight, the ICE US cotton futures price rose first and then fell, and the international crude oil futures price fluctuated strongly [6] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, in March, USDA raised the global cotton production in the 25/26 year by 1.1 million bales and lowered the consumption by 140,000 bales. In February, Vietnam's cotton imports were 104,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.6%. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose first and then fell. In March, BCO data lowered the total supply and ending inventory of domestic cotton in the 26/27 year and raised the total demand [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips. The price range is 15300 - 15800 yuan per ton [6] - **Eggs** - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices were stable [6] - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the demand has recovered, the market sales have accelerated, and the inventory has decreased, but the breeding end is not willing to cull, and the overall supply is sufficient. Egg prices are expected to run at a low level [6] - **Trading Strategy**: With the recovery of demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [6] - **Hogs** - **Market Performance**: Hog futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices continued to fall [6] - **Fundamentals**: In March, the slaughter volume at the breeding end increased significantly compared with February, and the slaughter weight is at a high level in recent years. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, with strong supply and weak demand. The futures and spot prices are expected to run weakly. Pay attention to the recent slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm [6] - **Trading Strategy**: With strong supply and weak demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE** - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract rose significantly yesterday. The low - price spot quotation in North China was 8000 yuan per ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was the disk price minus 200, with the basis weakening. The market trading performance was average. Overseas, the US dollar price rose steadily, and the import window was closed [8] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there will be no new device put into production in the first half of the year. Some existing devices plan to reduce the load and stop production due to the expected shortage of crude oil caused by the US - Iran conflict, and domestic supply has decreased significantly. The import window has been closed, and with the easing of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, the import volume is expected to decrease. In general, the short - term domestic supply pressure has eased. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the demand has improved month - on - month. March and April are the peak seasons for agricultural film demand [8] - **Trading

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2][4]. - Silver: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction [2][5]. - Copper: The narrowing of domestic spot discounts supports prices [2][8]. - Zinc: It shows a range - bound oscillation [2][11]. - Lead: The increase in domestic inventories exerts downward pressure on prices [2][14]. - Tin: It is in an oscillatory adjustment [2][17]. - Aluminum: It remains relatively strong [2][21]. - Alumina: It returns to the fundamentals [2][21]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: It oscillates following gold and silver [2][23]. - Palladium: It failed to reach a high and remains sluggish [2][24]. - Nickel: Tightness at the ore end supports the current situation, while inventory accumulation in smelting limits its elasticity [2][28]. - Stainless steel: Macroeconomic risk appetite causes disturbances, and the real - cost center has shifted upwards [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Fundamentals**: The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot markets showed different trends. For example, Comex gold 2602 rose by 1.02%, while Shanghai gold 2602 fell by 2.45%. Trading volumes and positions also changed, with Shanghai gold 2602's trading volume increasing by 25,719 and positions decreasing by 13,351. ETF and inventory data also showed changes, such as SPDR gold ETF's position decreasing by 18 [5]. - **News**: Geopolitical news included the US Navy's contradictory information on escort in the Strait of Hormuz, which caused fluctuations in the crude oil market, and China's February export and import growth rate returning to double - digits [5][7]. Silver - **Fundamentals**: Prices generally showed an upward trend, with Comex silver 2602 rising by 1.78%. Trading volumes and positions changed, and inventory decreased. For example, Comex silver's inventory decreased by 2,391,537 ounces [5]. - **News**: Similar to gold, it was affected by geopolitical and macro - economic news [5][7]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The prices of Shanghai and London copper futures increased, with Shanghai copper's main contract rising by 1.33%. Futures inventory and spot price spreads also changed, such as the spot - to - futures near - month spread changing from - 45 to 0 [8]. - **News**: Geopolitical news included the tense situation between the US and Iran, and industry news included Revere copper products company increasing investment in the US and Mongolia's re - negotiation of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine's commercial terms [8][10]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Shanghai and London zinc prices showed different trends, with Shanghai zinc's main contract falling by 0.02% and London zinc rising by 0.20%. Inventory increased, and price spreads and premiums also changed [11]. - **News**: China's foreign trade growth rate returned to double - digits, and there was geopolitical news related to the Strait of Hormuz [12]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: Shanghai and London lead prices declined, with Shanghai lead's main contract falling by 0.54%. Inventory increased, and price spreads and import - related data changed [14]. - **News**: Geopolitical news included the tense situation between the US and Iran and China's foreign trade growth [15]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: Shanghai and London tin prices rose, with Shanghai tin's main contract rising by 2.24%. Inventory decreased, and prices in the industrial chain, such as tin concentrate and solder, also increased [18]. - **News**: It included geopolitical news and news about the robot mobile phone [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum prices remained relatively strong, alumina returned to the fundamentals, and cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum. There were changes in futures prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads in each market [21]. - **News**: Geopolitical news included the possibility of the US and Iran negotiating and the US's high - intensity strike on Iran. There was also news about the possible decline in oil prices if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz improved [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamentals**: Platinum prices generally rose, while palladium prices showed different trends. There were changes in trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads [24]. - **News**: Geopolitical news included the tense situation between the US and Iran, the possible negotiation between the US and Iran, and the reduction in oil production by Middle - Eastern countries [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel prices were supported by tight ore supply but limited by smelting inventory. Stainless steel was affected by macro - risk appetite and cost. There were changes in futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and prices in the industrial chain [28]. - **News**: Industry news included Indonesia's plan to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula, the restart of a nickel mine in Guatemala, and various incidents in the Indonesian nickel industry, such as landslides and sanctions [28][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1. Stock Index Futures - The report presents various data on stock index futures, including price differences, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios. It provides historical percentile data for these indicators, which can help investors understand the current market position of these spreads and ratios [1]. 2.2. Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical percentiles of basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures. These data can assist investors in analyzing the market conditions of treasury bond futures [2]. 2.3. Precious Metals - Gold's support level at the 20 - day moving average of $5000 is crucial. It is recommended to wait for a clearer trend before taking action. Short - term, one can sell out - of - the - money call options above 1170 yuan. - Silver prices may face downward pressure and should be monitored for support at the 60 - day moving average. In a situation of converging volatility, the price range is between $80 - $90, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value. - Platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Platinum may seek support around 550 yuan, and palladium may decline to around 410 yuan. One can roll and sell out - of - the - money call options [3]. 2.4. Container Shipping Industry - The market panic has cooled down, and the oil price has fluctuated. In the short term, it is difficult to disprove the significant price increase by shipowners, but there is a risk of the market peaking in the short term. The main contract 04 is approaching the delivery month and is at a premium to the spot index, with high uncertainty. It is recommended that investors participate with caution. It is also suggested to hold the 6 - 10 calendar spread [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The report provides the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentiles of price differences for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts. For example, the IF price difference has a current value of - 16.26, a change of - 1.82, and a historical percentile of 59.40% [1]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Data on cross - period spreads such as the difference between the next month and the current month, the quarterly month and the current month, etc., are presented. For instance, the IF cross - period spread between the next month and the current month has a value of - 19.00, a change of - 5.80, and a historical percentile of 22.90% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: The report shows the ratios of different stock index futures, such as the ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 50, IC to IF, etc., along with their changes and historical percentiles. For example, the ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 50 is 2.7943, with a change of 0.0007 and a historical percentile of 97.10% [1]. 3.2. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are provided, including the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical percentiles. For example, the TS basis on March 9, 2026, is 1.3549, with a change of 0.0002 and a historical percentile of 14.90% [2]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Information on cross - period spreads of different contracts is given, such as the difference between the current quarter and the next quarter, the next quarter and the subsequent quarter, etc. For example, the TF cross - period spread between the current quarter and the next quarter on March 9, 2026, is 0.0000, with a change of 0.0060 and a historical percentile of 25.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The report presents cross - variety spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc., along with their values, changes, and historical percentiles. For example, the TS - TF spread on March 9, 2026, is 0.0940, with a historical percentile of 9.90% [2]. 3.3. Precious Metals - **Futures Prices**: The report shows the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metal futures contracts, including AU2604, AG2604, COMEX gold, etc., along with their changes and price change rates. For example, the AU2604 contract closed at 1140.00 yuan/gram on March 9, 2026, with a decrease of 0.80 yuan and a decline rate of - 0.07% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The current and previous spot prices of precious metals such as London gold, London silver, etc., are presented, along with their changes and price change rates. For example, the price of London gold on March 9, 2026, is 5139.57, with a decrease of 28.44 and a decline rate of - 0.55% [3]. - **Basis**: The basis data between different precious metal contracts are provided, including the current value, previous value, change, and historical percentile. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 0.04, with a change of 2.30 and a historical percentile of 46.10% [3]. - **Ratios**: The report shows the ratios of different precious metals, such as COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver, etc., along with their changes and price change rates. For example, the COMEX gold/silver ratio is 58.95, with a decrease of 2.23 and a decline rate of - 3.64% [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Data on interest rates and exchange rates, such as the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, the US dollar index, etc., are presented, along with their changes and price change rates. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield is 4.12, with a decrease of 0.03 and a decline rate of - 0.7% [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The report provides inventory and position data of precious metals, including the current value, previous value, change, and price change rate. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 104934, with a decrease of 95 and a decline rate of - 0.09% [3]. 3.4. Container Shipping Industry - **Spot Quotes**: The report shows the spot quotes of shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route, including MAERSK, CMA, etc., along with their changes and price change rates. For example, MAERSK's quote on March 10, 2026, is 2347 US dollars/FEU, with an increase of 17 and an increase rate of 0.73% [4]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Data on shipping indexes such as SCFIS (European route), SCFI composite index, etc., are provided, including their values, changes, and price change rates. For example, the SCFIS (European route) on March 9, 2026, is 1545.46, with an increase of 82.1 and an increase rate of 5.61% [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The report presents the futures prices of container shipping contracts such as EC2604, EC2605, etc., along with their changes and price change rates. The basis of the main contract is also provided. For example, the EC2604 (main contract) on March 9, 2026, is 2236.4, with an increase of 344.2 and an increase rate of 18.19% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on container shipping industry fundamentals, including global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, and overseas economic indicators, are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply on March 9, 2026, is 3388.40 ATEU, with an increase of 0.06 and a percentage change of 0.00% [4].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Geopolitical disturbances continue to suppress precious metal prices, with inflation expectations also contributing to this trend. Recent geopolitical events in the Middle East have led to significant oil price increases, creating uncertainty that affects precious metals [1] - Despite weak U.S. employment data and economic performance, expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve after geopolitical conflicts subside remain, while central bank gold purchases continue [1] Group 2: Copper - The unexpected weak U.S. non-farm payroll data has boosted expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for copper prices amid liquidity tightening pressures from U.S.-Iran conflicts [2] - Supply constraints are evident as copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) continue to decline, while demand is recovering as companies resume operations post-holiday, leading to a significant increase in downstream replenishment intentions [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has raised concerns about supply shortages, pushing LME aluminum prices to a nearly four-year high [2] - Supply disruptions are frequent, with Qatar Aluminum Industries halting production due to gas supply issues and Bahrain Aluminum facing transportation obstacles due to regional conflicts [2] Group 4: Tin - The supply-demand situation for tin is weak, with macroeconomic factors increasing price volatility. Progress in water extraction at Myanmar mines and the resumption of exports from Indonesia have led to marginally eased supply conditions [2] - Downstream enterprises are cautiously purchasing due to high inventory levels and uncertainties surrounding AI chip export regulations, which may suppress market sentiment [2] Group 5: Energy Metals - Demand for lithium remains strong, with continuous inventory reductions observed post-holiday, while production is on the rise. The expected reduction in export tax rebates for battery products may lead to front-loaded battery demand [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supplies, while downstream demand is cautious. Cobalt companies are extending their reach into electric new energy sectors, enhancing competitive barriers [3] Group 6: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to strategic premiums and supply-demand mismatches, with strong overseas demand and smooth cost transmission contributing to this trend [4] - The price of uranium has increased to $90 per pound in February, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap [4] - Tantalum prices have surged due to supply shortages from mining accidents in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with emerging industries like AI servers and semiconductors driving terminal demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of war on financial and commodity markets is fundamentally characterized by extreme pricing that deviates from conventional financial frameworks, where political logic dominates economic logic and monetary credit logic takes precedence over monetary policy logic [3][7]. Group 1: Initial Phase of War - The core transmission path during the early phase of war involves inflation and liquidity squeeze, driven by geopolitical crises leading to soaring oil prices and rising military spending expectations, which subsequently create systemic liquidity pressures in capital markets [4][12]. - The geopolitical crisis leads to a significant rise in global inflation expectations, which, combined with increased military spending, raises global bond yields and results in liquidity tightening across markets [12][14]. Group 2: Mid-War Phase and Currency Credit - As uncertainty escalates during the mid-war phase, the original monetary credit framework may fail, shifting market pricing anchors towards physical assets, with safe-haven and energy substitution logic providing underlying support for strategic commodities [5][18]. - The market's pricing behavior during war follows an extreme order of survival, safety, credit, and profit, indicating that conventional financial frameworks may experience a degree of failure, with geopolitical factors dictating resource allocation and monetary credit influencing asset distribution [8][19]. Group 3: Historical Context and Asset Changes - The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) serves as a reference for changes in commodity assets, illustrating how geopolitical conflicts can disrupt global energy supply chains and impact asset pricing [38][37]. - Historical examples, such as the Gulf War and the Iran-Iraq War, demonstrate that extreme geopolitical events can lead to significant price surges in oil and gold, often detached from underlying supply-demand fundamentals [7][41]. Group 4: Energy Transition and Strategic Resources - The logic of energy substitution is not merely a transition from old to new energy sources; rather, it is driven by supply shortages caused by war and energy crises, prompting the adoption of emergency alternative technologies [35][36]. - Countries are increasingly focusing on resource protection and stockpiling strategies, which will drive prices for physical assets like precious metals, energy, and food [32][35]. Group 5: Future Scenarios and Market Implications - The current geopolitical situation, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, will significantly influence the dynamics of the commodity market, with potential scenarios ranging from temporary supply disruptions to prolonged physical blockades [56][57]. - The potential for a global energy crisis could lead to significant price increases for oil and other commodities, with the market reacting to both supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures [58][59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment is weak, with platinum and palladium prices fluctuating. The platinum futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 1.43% to 549.35 yuan/gram, and the palladium futures contract dropped 2.18% to 412.70 yuan/gram on March 9, 2026 [1]. - In the short - term, platinum prices lack a clear driving force and will maintain a volatile trend. In the long - term, they are expected to be volatile and bullish due to fundamental resilience and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [2]. - Palladium prices are currently following the overall trend of the precious metals sector. In the long - term, they are also expected to be volatile and bullish, with current supply disruptions and long - term supply - demand loosening [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Multiple factors are at play. The escalating conflict between the US and Iran boosts the safe - haven demand for precious metals, but the rising oil prices lead to higher inflation expectations and delay the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, suppressing platinum prices. The weak US employment data in February has a limited impact due to the US - Iran conflict. In the long - run, the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order will weaken the US dollar index, which is beneficial for platinum prices, but the US - Iran conflict adds additional uncertainties [2]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. The combination of fundamental strength and the weakening of the US dollar's credit supports a long - term bullish outlook [2]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the US has made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium, causing supply uncertainties. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. Overall, the long - term supply - demand is loosening, but short - term supply disruptions exist, and it currently follows the overall precious metals market [3]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. The shortage of spot palladium and the weakening of the US dollar's credit lead to a long - term bullish expectation [3]. Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was at 2584.35, up 2.93%; the commodity 20 index was at 2937.05, up 2.55%; and the industrial products index was at 2527.43, up 3.87% on March 9, 2026 [49]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index was at 2701.22 on March 9, 2026, with a daily increase of 0.29%, a 5 - day decline of 0.59%, a 1 - month decline of 5.40%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.57% [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term trend of precious metals may be volatile, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market's panic has dissipated, risk assets have counterattacked, and the US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, which has a certain supporting effect on the price of gold. The statement by the US President that the war with Iran is basically over has suppressed the rise of COMEX gold and led to a small decline, while COMEX silver first declined and then rose with risk assets [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 0.19% to $5148.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.60% to $87.34 per ounce. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.02% to 1141.12 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 2.31% to 21738 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - On March 9, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, were 1070.71 tons, a decrease of 2.61 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, were 15710.91 tons, a decrease of 50.71 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.3%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively in April is 11.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by June is 33.3% [1]. - US President Trump said in a phone interview that the war is basically over, which led to the dissipation of market panic, a more than 13% drop in the VIX panic index, and a large - scale counterattack of risk assets [1]. - G7 officials said that at the G7 finance ministers' meeting, a broad consensus was reached not to release oil reserves for the time being, and reserve releases and other measures would be taken to support global energy supply if necessary [1]. Market Logic - The US President's statement that the war is basically over and the consideration of controlling the Strait of Hormuz led to the dissipation of market panic and a counterattack of risk assets. The US dollar index fell 0.24% to 98.71, and the yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond fell to 4.100%. The US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, and market risk - aversion sentiment supports the price of gold. The statement that the war with Iran is basically over suppressed the rise of COMEX gold and led to a small decline. COMEX silver first declined significantly and then rose with risk assets [1]. Trading Strategy The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the regular rotation of the economic cycle and the influence of the medium - term inventory cycle, bulk commodities experience a rotational upward trend in the order of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy and chemicals - agricultural products" [4] - After the US - Israel raid on Iran on February 28, the start of subsequent sectors may be advanced. The current strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is fully expected by the market, while oil prices and sectors related to China's domestic economic cycle still have room for rotation and upward expectations [5] - In 2026, the chemical sector is worth looking forward to. With the implementation of China's "anti - involution" policy, the exit of production capacity in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and the transmission of crude oil costs, chemical products will see a market of cost transmission and supply optimization [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 What is the commodity sector cycle rotation? - Due to the regular rotation of the economic cycle and the influence of the medium - term inventory cycle, bulk commodities experience a rotational upward trend from "precious metals - industrial metals - energy and chemicals - agricultural products" [4] 3.2 Which stage has the current sector rotation reached? - After the US - Israel raid on Iran on February 28, the crude oil system and shipping index hit the daily limit this week. The subsequent sector start may be advanced. Although emergencies may disrupt the rhythm and intensity of rotation, the underlying logic remains [5] - The strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is fully expected by the market, while oil prices and sectors related to China's domestic economic cycle still have room for rotation and upward expectations [5] 3.3 Which sectors should be focused on in the future? - Historically, precious metals often start first, followed by non - ferrous metals and energy - chemical sectors, and the agricultural product sector is usually lagging and appears in the second half of the cycle [6] - In 2026, the chemical sector is promising. With relevant policies and cost factors, chemical products will have a market of cost transmission and supply optimization, and varieties with less production capacity expansion and strong export expectations will perform better [6] 3.4 Technical Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - There is an adjustment requirement in the morning, and the large - cycle will continue to fluctuate within a range. Tomorrow's early - morning adjustment is a good low - buying opportunity [9] 3.4.2 Gold - The gold daily - level red - green line turns bearish. After opening lower, it fluctuated higher and then fell back at the end of the session. It should be treated with a high - short strategy [14] 3.4.3 Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm, with a long - term supply - loosening expectation. The demand side needs time for the terminal demand to start. Technically, with the recent high - spirited commodity sentiment and the disk rising for three consecutive days, a bullish view can be maintained [15][16] 3.4.4 Glass - The daily melting change is small, and the factory inventory accumulates during the seasonal off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. Technically, if it breaks through the previous high, the upward space can be further opened, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [18][19] 3.4.5 Methanol - China imports about 14 million tons of methanol annually, accounting for just over 10% of the total consumption. About 60% of the imports come from Iran, and the influence of Iranian supplies on the disk pricing is about 50%. Any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic disk [21] 3.4.6 Pulp - Most pulp and paper equipment has returned to normal production, with individual equipment under maintenance. The domestic port inventory continues to accumulate, putting pressure on prices. The downstream paper mills' operating load is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support the pulp price [25]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with major indices dropping over 1%, and the Dow Jones falling more than 840 points [1] - Bank stocks and large tech companies saw collective downturns, with Jefferies down over 4%, and Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Barclays down over 3% [2] - Precious metals, airlines, and cruise stocks also faced declines, with Carnival Cruise Line down over 8% and Delta Airlines down approximately 6% [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrency stocks showed gains, with Circle up over 9% and Coinbase up over 2%, as the cryptocurrency market rebounded, with Bitcoin surpassing $69,000 [3] - In the last 24 hours, over 91,000 individuals in the global cryptocurrency market faced liquidation, with nearly two-thirds being short positions [3] Oil Market Insights - Iranian military officials warned that if oil prices exceed $200 per barrel, it could lead to significant economic consequences, although the likelihood of a long-term disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is considered low [5] - The oil industry expert indicated that a prolonged disruption would significantly impact international oil prices and necessitate finding alternative trade routes, which would require substantial investment and time [5] Commodity Market - Spot gold and silver prices saw increased declines, with gold down over 1.8% and silver down approximately 1% [3] - WTI crude oil experienced a short-term drop, with its gains narrowing to 6.7% [3]