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杨德龙:美联储降息临近 多重因素共同推动黄金白银等避险资产价格上涨
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-02 08:59
Group 1 - Gold prices surged again, with spot gold breaking the previous high of $3500 per ounce, marking a historical peak and an increase of over $800 this year [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to the increasing issuance of the US dollar, leading to higher dollar-denominated gold prices, alongside significant purchases of physical gold by central banks, including the People's Bank of China [1][2] - Investors are increasingly buying gold jewelry and physical gold in anticipation of further price increases, contributing to the sustained rise in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Recent international gold price increases are primarily driven by heightened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a potential 25 basis point cut expected in September [2] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates has shifted, with indications that the labor market is weakening, which may support the case for rate cuts [2] - The US government's rising debt, exceeding $37 trillion, has raised concerns about the dollar's credibility, further driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3 - The ongoing tensions between President Trump and the Federal Reserve have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, potentially undermining market confidence [3] - The price of silver has increased over 40% this year, outpacing gold, driven by industrial demand and supply shortages in the silver market [3] - Investors are increasingly turning to silver-backed ETFs, leading to a continuous rise in holdings and a decline in available silver inventory in the London market [3] Group 4 - The capital market is experiencing upward momentum, with significant trading volumes indicating increased investor confidence [4] - Multiple sources of capital inflow are driving market growth, including funds moving from savings, insurance companies increasing their positions, and foreign investments exceeding $10 billion in the first half of the year [4] - Short-term market fluctuations are expected, but long-term prospects for the gold market remain positive, supporting economic recovery through enhanced consumer wealth effects [4]
贵金属板块9月2日涨0.23%,西部黄金领涨,主力资金净流出12.55亿元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2025-09-02 08:55
从资金流向上来看,当日贵金属板块主力资金净流出12.55亿元,游资资金净流入5.59亿元,散户资金净 流入6.96亿元。贵金属板块个股资金流向见下表: | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601069 | 西部貴金 | 24.10 | 10.00% | 40.93万 | | 9.82亿 | | 002716 | 湖南白银 | 6.33 | 4.46% | 439.48万 | | 28.35 Z | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | 22.84 | 2.06% | 106.51万 | | 24.51亿 | | 600489 | 中全黄金 | 17.76 | 1.08% | 228.72万 | | 40.78亿 | | 001337 | 四川黄金 | 26.04 | 0.54% | 39.21万 | | 10.26 Z | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 35.91 | -0.08% | 65.59万 | | 23.68亿 | | 600988 | 赤峰黄金 | 2 ...
美联储降息预期飙升!金价再创历史新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 08:39
转自:中国商报 【美联储降息预期飙升!金价再创历史新高】美联储降息预期飙升。芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工 具显示,美联储9月降息25个基点的概率已升至89.6%。受此影响,金价已连续六个交易日上涨。9月2 日盘中,现货#黄金#价格刷新历史高位,站上3500美元/盎司,最高报3508.69美元,日内涨幅达 0.60%。国际金价一年累计上涨38.99%。国内品牌金饰价格直线上涨,其中周生生一夜上涨16元/克至 1041元/克,周大福、六福珠宝、金至尊金饰克价均达1037元/克。在#A股#市场上,贵金属、有色金属 板块逆市上扬。截至午盘,西部黄金涨停,白银有色两连板,湖南白银涨近7%,晓程科技、四川黄 金、金钼股份等跟涨。展望后市,多家机构表示金价有望继续涨。摩根大通预测金价将达到4000美元/ 盎司,而且这一目标可能"比预期来得更快"。对此,你怎么看?(注:本文不构成任何投资建议)#机 器人概念午后拉升# (来源:中国商报) ...
A股今日共55只个股涨停
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-02 08:33
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,9月2日,数据显示,A股市场共计55只个股涨停。其中汽车零部件板块天普股份收获8连 板,机器人概念股德新科技3连板,贵金属板块西部黄金、白银有色均2连板。 ...
铂钯上市系列专题二:铂钯价格深度复盘及品种间联动关系解析
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 08:12
专题报告—铂钯 smingfTable_Title] 铂钯上市系列专题二: 铂钯价格深度复盘及品种间联动关系解析 | | | [★Ta3b5le年_S历um史m铂ar钯y]价格复盘 铂钯的波动率在金属中位居前列,过去十年钯和铂的日均波动率 分别为 1.58%和 1.22%,反映两者对供应扰动和资金流动高度敏 感。1997~2001 年和 2017~2023 年为钯金牛市,而 2002~2008 年 为铂金牛市。铂钯的价格走势深受供需结构演变及宏观环境影 响,需求替代作为铂钯价格波动的长期逻辑,价格极值则由宏观 波动、供应扰动和外部事件冲击给予(价格复盘见正文)。 ★成本支撑 有 色 金 属 原生铂钯供应与 Capex 相关性较弱,主因南非和俄罗斯矿端扰动 较多,矿端成本中期对铂钯价格形成强劲底部支撑。2024 年全球 铂矿总维持成本同比上升 11.8%至 884 美元/盎司,铂现以 1350 美元/金衡盎司的价格运行,矿企进一步减产的可能性降低,但 若要刺激出更多供应,或需要更高的价格。 ★铂钯比 铂钯比反映需求替代与金融属性溢价。替代的核心驱动是长期显 著的相对溢价,次要驱动有供应链安全和政策刺激等。替代周 ...
广发期货日评-20250902
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 07:59
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].
连板股追踪丨A股今日共55只个股涨停 这只机器人概念股3连板
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 07:57
汽车零部件板块天普股份收获8连板,贵金属板块西部黄金、白银有色均2连板。一图速览今日连板股 >> 9月2日,Wind数据显示,A股市场共计55只个股涨停。其中汽车零部件板块天普股份收获8连板,机器 人概念股德新科技3连板,贵金属板块西部黄金、白银有色均2连板。一图速览今日连板股>> | | 笙板 服安 9.2 一 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 连板天数 | 所属概念 | | 天普股份 | 8 | 汽车零部件 | | *ST威尔 | 4 | 工业机械 | | 兆新股份 | 4 | 稀土 | | ST瑞和 | 3 | 光伏 | | *ST春天 | 3 | 日酒 | | 德新科技 | 3 | 固态电池+机器人 | | 凯迪股份 | 3 | 机器人 | | ST尔雅 | 3 | 服装 | | *ST中基 | 2 | 农业/种植 | | 山子高科 | 2 | 汽车零部件 | | 长春高新 | 2 | 创新药 | | ST宏达 | 2 | 有机硅 | | *ST和科 | 2 | 光刻机 | | 英联股份 | 2 | 固态电池 | | 博杰股份 | 2 | 机器人 | | 上海电力 | ...
三大股指盘中震荡下探,贵金属、机器人概念活跃!
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-09-02 07:57
| 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | | 总成交量(万手) * 总成交额(亿元) ▼ | 净流入 (亿元) ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌家数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 银行 | 1.69 | 6223.37 | 494.18 | 118.82 | 41 | 1 | | 2 | 盖金属 | 0.92 | 1312.12 | 221.26 | 3.49 | 5 | 6 | | 3 | 汽车零部件 | 0.57 | 6760.44 | 1106.96 | -53.50 | 108 | 141 | | 4 | 电力 | 0.56 | 6427.44 | 393.45 | 10.99 | 49 | 47 | | 5 | 种植业与林业 | 0.38 | 919.75 | 57.35 | -3.62 | 11 | 18 | | б | 港口航运 | 0.24 | 1666.01 | 97.20 | 0.15 | 20 | 15 | | 7 | 服装家纺 | 0.20 | 1779.98 | 137.37 | -8.54 | 30 ...
金银创新高!白银现货价格逼近万元大关,有望跑赢黄金成投资黑马
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 07:42
【华通白银网9月2日讯】•在降息希望和地缘政治风险的推动下,黄金白银大幅上涨。 •经济数据支撑美联储降息预期。 •机构对白银的兴趣正在增长,尤其是沙特央行。 黄金和白银价格在9月的第一个交易日大幅上涨,因为降息希望在周一提振了投资者的情绪。 纽约商品交易所12月黄金合约触及3,556.87美元/盎司的纪录高位。纽约商品交易所12月白银期货触及41.638美元/盎司的逾14年高位。 交易员们预计,尽管通胀迹象持续存在,但美联储本月仍将降息。 FXStreet编辑Haresh Menghani在一份报告中表示:"这一前景将美元拖回8月月度摆动高点附近,并为无息黄金形成推动力。" 经济数据 美国经济分析局上周五公布的7月份年度美国个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数保持在2.6%不变。 此外,核心个人消费支出价格指数(不包括波动较大的食品和能源部门)在报告月份小幅上升至2.9%,与分析师的预期一致,此前6月份 数据为2.8%。 根据芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具,交易员现在预测美联储在9月17日为期两天的会议结束时将借款成本降低25个基点的可能性为 87%。 该数据强化了人们的预期,即美联储将在今年年底前实施至少两次降 ...
收评:三大指数回调沪指跌0.45% 银行股逆市走强
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 07:34
新华财经北京9月2日电 (王媛媛)周二A股三大指数集体回调,创业板指领跌。截至收盘,沪指报 3858.13点,跌0.45%,成交12228亿元;深证成指报12553.84点,跌2.14%,成交16522亿元;创业板指 报2872.22点,跌2.85%,成交8038亿元。沪深两市成交额达到28750亿元,较昨日放量1250亿元。 中泰证券:银行股经营模式和投资逻辑从"顺周期"到"弱周期":市场强时,银行股短期偏弱;但经济偏 平淡期间,银行股高股息持续会具有吸引力,继续看好银行股稳健性和持续性。银行股两条投资主线: 一是拥有区域优势、确定性强的城农商行,区域包括江苏、上海、成渝、山东和福建等。二是高股息稳 健的逻辑。 消息面上 2025基金中报透视:医药、银行、电子成加仓重点舒泰神基金持股比例增长居首 据智通财经,近日,公募基金2025年中报披露结束。从行业配置来看,今年上半年,医药生物、银行、 电子等板块的基金持股市值显著增长,而电力设备、食品饮料、煤炭等板块则出现较大下降。截至报告 期末,电子、医药生物、电力设备仍为基金持仓规模最大的三大行业。个股方面(仅统计A股),舒泰 神、昂利康、潍柴重机在基金持股占流通 ...