Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced adjustments to the margin levels and price limits for certain gold contracts, effective from February 4, 2026 [2] - The margin ratio for contracts such as Au (T+D), mAu (T+D), Au (T+N1), Au (T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 will increase from 16% to 17%, and the price fluctuation limit will rise from 15% to 16% [2] - The margin for CAu99.99 contracts will be adjusted from 120,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan per contract [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has also announced changes to the margin levels and price limits for silver deferred contracts, effective from February 3, 2026 [4] - The margin level for Ag (T+D) contracts will decrease from 26% to 23%, while the price fluctuation limit will be reduced from 25% to 22% [4]

Group 1 - COMEX silver increased by over 13% on February 3, with spot silver rising more than 10%, reaching $87.03 per ounce [1] - London silver spot price was reported at $87.080, reflecting a gain of 10.05% [2] - COMEX silver price was noted at $87.040, showing an increase of 13.03% [2]

上金所发布公告，自2026年2月4日（星期三）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、mAu（T+D）、Au（T+N1）、Au（T+N2）、 NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12等合约的保证金比例从16%调整为17%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从15%调整为16%；CAu99.99合约 保证金每手120,000元调整至每手150,000元。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to margin levels and price limits for certain gold contracts, effective from February 4 [1] - The margin ratio for contracts such as Au (T+D), mAu (T+D), Au (T+N1), Au (T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 has been increased from 16% to 17%, with the price fluctuation limit changing from 15% to 16% [1] - The margin for CAu99.99 contracts has been raised from 120,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan per contract [1] Group 2 - The margin level for Ag (T+D) contracts has been reduced from 26% to 23%, with the price fluctuation limit changing from 25% to 22% starting from February 3 [3]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the margin levels and price fluctuation limits for certain gold contracts, effective from February 4, 2026 [1] - The margin ratio for contracts such as Au (T+D), mAu (T+D), Au (T+N1), Au (T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 will increase from 16% to 17%, while the price fluctuation limit will rise from 15% to 16% [1] - The margin for CAu99.99 contracts will increase from 120,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan per contract [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange also announced adjustments to the margin levels and price fluctuation limits for silver deferred contracts, effective from February 3, 2026 [1] - The margin level for Ag (T+D) contracts will decrease from 26% to 23%, and the price fluctuation limit will decrease from 25% to 22% [1] - The exchange urged members to enhance risk awareness and prepare risk response plans to ensure market stability [1]

但短期资金把行情透支了。高盛的判断是，短期投机资金和散户实物需求把交易挤得太满，波动率一飙升就触发止损和强平，现在交易员普遍在减仓、降杠 杆，更多在玩波动率而不是单边方向。 华尔街对黄金最近这轮暴涨暴跌的看法基本一致：支撑金价的底层逻辑还在——央行在买，去美元化/通胀预期没消失，宏观政策的不确定性。 分歧在于这轮调整会跌多深、跌多久：高盛大宗商品研究那边还是看2026年底到5400美元，而且觉得往上走的概率更大；Infrastructure Capital的Jay Hatfield 直接说这行情早就脱离基本面，就是动量交易。 研究端同时强调，上行风险还是偏多，因为私人部门继续配置黄金"非常可能"。理由是全球宏观政策不确定性在2026年很难完全解决，而且黄金在私人投资 组合中的占比还是偏低。 高盛大宗商品研究部的STRUYVEN：基于央行购金、美联储降息、私人部门不再增配这三个假设，维持2026年12月金价5400美元。 "我们仍维持2026年12月金价5400美元的预测。该预测基于：1）央行购金维持过去12个月高位（每月60吨）；2）美联储2026年降息两次各25基 点；3）私营部门未进一步多元化配置黄金（即 ...

自2026年2月4日（星期三）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、mAu（T+D）、Au（T+N1）、Au （T+N2）、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12等合约的保证金比例从16%调整为17%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限 制从15%调整为16%；CAu99.99合约保证金每手120,000元调整至每手150,000元。 上海黄金交易所发布通知称，拟对黄金部分合约交易保证金水平和涨跌停板比例进行调整。现将相关事 项通知如下： ...

这两天黄金白银的史诗级巨震，令全球投资者瞠目结舌，莲华资管首席投资官洪灝在CNBC对话中指 出，黄金和白银很会回到原来的高点，而且还有上行空间，但这还需要一些时间让市场尘埃落定。尘埃 落定后贵金属将恢复上涨，在他看来，白银底部约在75-80美元/盎司、黄金底部略低于5000美元/盎司。 洪灏指出贵金属的本轮暴跌被市场普遍解读为、源于特朗普提名鹰派人士凯文·沃什接任美联储主席， 引发"货币贬值交易"逆转，美元重新走强，导致极端拥挤高杠杆的贵金属交易出现下杀。但他认为，自 2008年以来，美联储从未真正独立，且特朗普有强烈干预联储政策的意愿。即便未来这位候选人试图通 过提高利率来抑制通胀预期，同时缩减美联储资产负债表，特朗普也可能会对此不满，这可能导致财富 效应减弱。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in silver prices is primarily attributed to the abrupt halt of speculative frenzy among retail investors, following a record inflow of $1 billion into silver ETFs in January [1][1][1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Retail investors were at the center of the recent silver price collapse, having injected a record $1 billion into silver ETFs in January [1] - The market saw a dramatic single-day drop of 27% in silver prices, leading to significant financial losses for many investors [1] - The total market value of ETFs tracking gold and silver has evaporated by approximately $150 billion since the market peak last week [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts, such as Rhona O'Connell from StoneX, describe silver as a "death trap," indicating that the recent parabolic rise was an inevitable correction [1] - Despite the steep decline, current silver and gold prices have only reverted to mid-January levels, suggesting that long-term investors still hold substantial unrealized gains [1] - Some investors view the recent downturn as a mere pullback driven by diversification needs, believing it to be a buying opportunity within a broader bullish trend [1]

国贸期货研究院 贵金属与新能源研究中心 投资咨询号:Z0013700 从业资格号:F3023916 2026/2/3 | | | | 日素姚 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标名称 | 现值 | 前値 | 涨 跌幅 | 3200 г | 主要图表 -- 现货智金(美元/盎司) SPTPDUSDOZ. IDC | | | 铂期货主力收盘价 | 413.7 | 464. 05 | -10. 85% | | -- 现货铂金(美元/盎司) SPTPTUSDOZ. IDC | | 国内价格 | 现货:铂(99.95%) | 550. 5 | 629.5 | -12. 55% | | | | | | | | | 2800 | | | (元/克) | 甜:基差(现-期) | 136.8 | 165. 45 | -17.32% | 2400 | | | | 锂期货主力收盘价 | 464. 05 | 526. 6 | -11.88% | 2000 | | | | 现货: 钟(99.95%) | 432 | 476 | -9.24% | 1600 ...