在创下历史新高后，白银价格本周一突然大幅跳水，引发市场对今年这轮惊人涨势是否"后劲不足"的担 忧。根据道琼斯市场数据，最活跃的白银期货合约周一收于每盎司70.46美元，单日暴跌8.7%，录得自 1980年1月22日以来最大单日美元跌幅。与此同时，黄金价格下跌超4%，报4330美元。就在此前一个交 易日，白银刚刚刷新历史收盘新高，并创下史上最大单日美元涨幅。 尽管短线回调猛烈，一些分析师认为这未必意味着趋势逆转。XS.com高级市场分析师Rania Gule指出， 此次下跌更像是快速且前所未有上涨后的"健康修正"，并非对中长期看涨逻辑的根本否定。她认为，只 有在中国供应约束明显缓解，或推动贵金属上涨的经济与地缘政治不确定性显著下降的情况下，白银才 可能出现持续性反转。 从基本面看，白银不仅是投资品，也是重要的工业金属。在新能源、人工智能等领域需求强劲的背景 下，美国内政部已将白银纳入关键矿产清单。 不过，Lundin也提醒，近期白银的暴涨暴跌更像是期货和期权市场的逼空与获利回吐交织所致。"很难 归因于单一因素，但在大幅上涨之后，短期内的看空压力确实更大。" 值得注意的是，风险资产整体情绪也在降温。周一美股主要指 ...

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 每经编辑｜许绍航 高涵 北京时间12月29日晚接近24点，国际贵金属全面下跌，多头遭集体"坑杀"。伦敦黄金现货大跌205美元，至4320美元附近，跌幅4.52%；白银跌幅更甚，超 过10%；铂金、钯金盘中更是暴跌15%左右。 | AND AND WATER 205 = 778 | BOMMER OF | The Real Property JIX III PALACE | ERRELL | CHE FILE | | CAST SECTION | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国际贵全展 | | | | | 名称 | | 现价 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 伦敦全现 | | 4327.400 | | -205.010 | -4.52% | | | 伦敦银现 | | 71.139 | | -8.190 | -10.32% | | | COMEX黄金 | | 4340.7 d | | -212.0 | -4.66% | | | COMEX自银 | | 70.915 d | | -6.281 | -8.14% | | ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the characteristics of bull and bear markets, highlighting that bear markets often experience prolonged declines while bull markets tend to have sharp corrections followed by gradual recoveries [2][3]. - In a bull market, significant price increases are often followed by market pullbacks, typically occurring in a pattern of advancing and retreating phases [4]. - The difficulty of timing the market is emphasized, as missing a few key trading days during a rally can significantly reduce potential returns [5]. Group 2 - The article notes that the magnitude of market pullbacks can vary, with some being minor while others can exceed 10%, leading to potential missed opportunities if investors attempt to time their re-entry [7]. - It explains the formula for index fund performance, which is influenced by valuation, earnings, and dividends, with valuation primarily affecting short-term returns and earnings impacting long-term performance [8].

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant drop, breaking through the 3850-point level, but this is viewed as a normal correction after a bullish run, rather than the end of a bull market [1] - The increase in trading volume during the drop indicates that there is still interest in the market, with volumes rising from approximately 1.70 trillion to around 2 trillion [1] Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic fundamentals have not shown significant deviations, supporting the continuation of the bull market [1] - There is a notable presence of incremental capital inflow, which is essential for sustaining the bullish trend [1] Market Sentiment - Despite recent declines, there are indicators suggesting that the bull market is not over, with key sectors like technology and profit batteries performing well [2] - The market is expected to confirm a bottom around the 3834-point level, with potential for a rebound if this level holds [3] Future Outlook - The outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, with expectations for a recovery in corporate earnings by 2026, contingent on macroeconomic stability and inflation trends [3] - Investors are advised to monitor weekend news and external market performances, particularly from US markets, as these will influence opportunities in the A-share market [3]

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market is characterized by volatility, with significant fluctuations in stock prices leading to confusion among investors [3][5] - There is a notable increase in the number of shareholders in high-tech stocks, indicating a potential market top, reminiscent of previous bubbles in sectors like new energy and liquor [1][9] - Institutional investors, such as insurance funds, maintain their positions due to lower cost bases, contrasting with retail investors who are more anxious as prices rise [3][8] Group 2 - The divergence in stock performance, particularly the resilience of liquor stocks amidst broader market declines, suggests underlying market strength [5][6] - Historical patterns indicate that sharp declines in a bull market are often temporary, and current market conditions may be a consolidation phase before further gains [3][6] - The market is experiencing a shift from speculative investments to a focus on performance metrics, highlighting the importance of value in current stock selection [6][10] Group 3 - Retail investors are advised to adopt a mindset similar to institutional investors, focusing on cost bases rather than short-term market fluctuations [8] - The current market dynamics reveal that reaching new index highs does not guarantee profits for all investors, emphasizing the structural characteristics of the A-share market in 2025 [6][10] - The presence of supportive factors, such as state-owned capital and favorable policies, suggests that systemic risks are relatively manageable compared to previous market cycles [10]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market has stabilized after the volatility caused by the "Trump shock," with indicators of dollar volatility returning to pre-election levels [2][3]. Group 1: Market Stability - The volatility expectations for the dollar against the euro and yen have dropped to their lowest point in over a year, recovering some of the losses seen earlier this year [2]. - The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, has also regained some ground, approaching levels seen before Trump's election victory [2]. - A series of tariff agreements among major U.S. trading partners has effectively reduced market volatility, while the U.S. economy has shown more resilience than expected under tariff pressures [2][3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors and analysts have learned to coexist with Trump's policies, adopting a more cautious approach to news headlines [2]. - Some large fund managers believe that previous concerns about U.S. assets were overstated, viewing the dollar's decline as a correction within a bull market rather than a trend reversal [3]. - The significant drop in volatility expectations indicates that the market perceives the "Trump shock" as having ended, with easing trade tensions and a more stable fiscal policy [3]. Group 3: Dollar's Role in Portfolios - The dollar is regaining its traditional role as a stabilizer in investment portfolios, particularly during global pressures [5]. - Fund managers assert that the earlier situation in which the dollar fell alongside risk assets was an anomaly rather than a long-term trend [5]. - The demand for bullish dollar options has surged, indicating a strong belief in the dollar's potential to strengthen [4].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump believes that the stock market will continue to reach "historical highs," attributing this to strong corporate earnings and investor enthusiasm for AI, despite concerns over government shutdowns and global trade tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has risen by 19.6% over the past 12 months, driven by robust corporate earnings and a strong interest in AI [1]. - The U.S. stock market has shown resilience, ignoring fears of renewed global trade tensions and market volatility [1]. - Compared to global markets, the U.S. stock market's performance has been relatively modest, with the South Korean KOSPI rising 66% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increasing by 28% over the past year [3]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Trump's administration has been credited with fulfilling many investor expectations, contributing to the ongoing bull market, which is characterized as an "AI bull market" [5]. - The S&P 500 index's performance since Trump's election ranks as the eighth best for a president's first term since World War II [2]. - The market's recovery from a 19% drop following the introduction of tariffs in April indicates that the final tariff measures were less severe than initially feared [2]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding potential market corrections, with expectations of a 10% to 15% pullback within the next 12 months [6]. - Goldman Sachs' CEO anticipates a possible 10% to 20% decline in the stock market over the next 1 to 2 years due to the rapid market gains [6]. - The current market's high position raises concerns about its vulnerability to negative surprises, as it has not experienced a correction since April [6].

Core Insights - The decline of gold is evident as Bitcoin (BTC) shows signs of recovery, with gold dropping over 10.60% to a low of $3,915, marking its largest seven-day decline since April [2] - Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows of $839 million, while gold ETFs have experienced outflows of $4.1 billion [2][7] - Historical patterns suggest that gold may rebound by 8.3% following significant declines [15] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold prices coincides with a 6.70% increase in Bitcoin, highlighting a divergence as the U.S. and China approach a trade agreement [4] - Following President Trump's comments on a successful meeting with Xi Jinping, which included a reduction in tariffs related to fentanyl, risk appetite has improved, potentially leading traders to shift back to Bitcoin [5] - Since October 20, gold-backed ETFs have seen outflows of approximately 1.064 million ounces (nearly $4.1 billion), including the largest single-day withdrawal in over six months [7] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's technical indicators show strong support around $101,790 [10] - Despite the current pullback, gold remains in a bull market, supported above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) [12] - Historical data indicates that gold typically rebounds 4%-33% after bouncing off the 50-day EMA, suggesting potential for recovery [12] Group 3: Future Projections - Analysts at JPMorgan predict that Bitcoin could reach $165,000 by 2025, asserting that it remains undervalued compared to gold [12] - If historical patterns hold, gold may revisit the $4,200-$4,250 range by December, reaffirming its broader upward trend [17] - Maintaining above the 50-day EMA could allow gold to reach HSBC's target of $5,000 by 2026 [17]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with major indices dropping sharply, indicating a volatile trading environment and a potential need for market correction [1][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.84% [1]. - Over 4,100 stocks closed in the red, with a trading volume of 2.46 trillion, an increase of over 170 billion compared to the previous day [1]. Reasons for Decline - The first reason for the decline is the exhaustion of the positive impact from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which led to a downturn in U.S. markets, negatively affecting A-shares [3]. - The second reason is the realization of previously anticipated policy benefits, prompting short-term investors to take profits [3]. - The third reason is the need for a market correction after a seven-day consecutive rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, leading to increased selling pressure [3]. Market Outlook - The current decline is viewed as a short-term fluctuation rather than the end of a bull market, with the medium-term upward trend expected to continue [5]. - Key support levels to watch are around 3963 points and 3936 points, which are critical for potential market stabilization and future buying opportunities [5]. - The overall valuation of A-shares around 4000 points is considered reasonable compared to last year's average of 3800 points, although some sectors, like AI, show signs of overvaluation [5]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to remain calm during market fluctuations, buying during dips and selling during peaks to ensure long-term survival in the market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the characteristics of market corrections during a bull market, emphasizing that corrections are common and can be identified by specific traits. Group 1: Characteristics of Bull Market Corrections - Corrections in a bull market are unlikely to return to previous lows, indicating that if the market does not drop below the last low point, it is still in a bull phase [5]. - The duration of corrections is typically short, often lasting between 1 to 2 months, as retail investors tend to have a short holding period, leading to quick sell-offs if declines persist [6][7]. - As a bull market progresses, the volatility of corrections tends to increase, with larger and more frequent pullbacks occurring in the later stages of the bull market [8].