文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘盘中上涨，一度到4.1星。 到收盘涨幅回落，还在4.2星。 大盘股微涨，小盘股略微下跌。 成长风格整体上涨。 前几天是科创板领涨，今天创业板上涨较多。 科技、医疗等整体上涨。 创业板去年也很长时间在低估。 今年前几个月，创业板也不是领涨的品种，不过最近也开始发力。 创业板大约45倍市盈率到高估，距离高估也很近了。 市场还是风格轮动的。 成长风格强势，价值风格就低迷一些。 今年价值风格，例如自由现金流、沪港深红利等还是上涨的。 像沪港深红利低波动，是连续第5年上涨；今年上涨7-8%。 不过涨幅没有成长风格多，短期资金还是会追涨杀跌，流入成长风格，类似2020-2021年那样。 市场每隔几年就会出现风格轮动，后面也会有价值风格强势、成长风格低迷的阶段。 螺丝钉也汇总了红利等指数的估值，供参考，见文章下方图片。 1. 前两天市场出现波动，最近大盘又恢复上涨。 遇到波动的时候，也有一些朋友会担心。 其实之前也介绍过， （1）在牛市上涨过程中，遇到回调很正常。 例如最近一年，A股出现了两波上涨-回调；港股出现了三波。 即便是2007、2015年大牛市，中间也出现过数次回调 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 09 月 25 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：原野 执业编号：S0300523070001 电话：15810120201 邮箱：yuanye_zb@ykzq.com 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】牛市的成因是什么？牛市 还能否延续？》2025-09-24 《【粤开宏观】迈向中等发达国家："十四 五"经济回顾与"十五五"经济增长目标 测算》2025-09-21 《【粤开宏观】大国财政的担当："十四 五"时期我国财政治理成效回顾》2025- 09-18 《【粤开宏观】美联储重启降息周期：回 顾、展望及影响》2025-09-18 《【粤开宏观】如何看待当前经济？如何 理解股市与经济的背离？》2025-09-15 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】历次牛市回调的原因是 什么？有哪些特征？该如何应对？ 摘要： 2025 年以来，以中国科技叙事反转为起点，A 股开启了一波强劲的 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced a decline of 4.6% since September 2, with historical patterns indicating that short-term corrections occur during bull markets, as seen in 2007, 2009, and 2014-2015 [1][3] - Historical corrections include a 20% drop over 28 trading days in 2007, a 10% drop over 19 trading days in 2009, and multiple smaller corrections in 2014-2015, with declines of less than 5% to around 6% [1][3] - Trading volume typically decreases significantly during these corrections, with a 60.4% drop in May 2007, a 71.8% drop in February 2009, and over 30% in the 2014-2015 corrections, indicating a return to pre-correction levels [6] Group 2 - During bull market corrections, there is no clear trend in the performance of large-cap versus small-cap stocks, suggesting caution in switching styles [2][8] - In past corrections, dividend-paying assets have not consistently outperformed the overall market, indicating that reducing positions may be more prudent than seeking refuge in dividend stocks [2][8] - Strongly performing sectors prior to corrections tend to experience larger declines, demonstrating a reversal characteristic during these periods [21]

大大基金 链接您与财富 -12.00% -11.57% 2019.1-2021.12 anzo, 03, 06 - 30, 2020, 03 - 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -2.93% -6.00% 4.67% -5.24% -8.00% -6.90% -7.16%-6.77% -10.00% -8.75% -9.11% -12.00% -11.59%12.03% -14.00% -13.54% -16.00% 市场有风险,投资需谨慎 [广图] : 在经历了接连多日的大涨后,近日A股连续宽幅震荡,不免有投资者对 后市的行情产生了一定担心。从历史上来看,市场从底部走向大涨的路 途并非是一帆风顺的,每一轮牛市都有几次大幅的调整。 2005.6-2007.10 2006 06 02 - 2006 08 14 2008 06,00 :3008 07,12 2007-01-24 =200; 02.00 2006 08:30 -30 -30 -30 -30 2007-06-30-30-2007-06-06 2008 05 05 - 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% -10. ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown strong performance over the past one and a half months, with the Shanghai Composite Index not experiencing more than two declines exceeding -1% in a week, indicating a trend of small pullbacks followed by upward movements [1] - Recently, the Shanghai Composite Index has formed a "small double top" technical pattern, suggesting a potential trend reversal and upcoming pullback [1] Historical Pullbacks - Historical analysis of bull markets in 2007 and 2015 indicates that the average maximum pullback for the Shanghai Composite Index during bull markets is between 10% and 20% [3] - Specific historical pullbacks include: - November 2014 to February 2015: maximum pullback of 10.5% [4] - March 2015 to May 2015: maximum pullback of 10.3% [5] - April 2006 to August 2006: maximum pullback of 12.3% [8] - September 2006 to March 2007: maximum pullback of 15.1% [10] - March 2007 to December 2007: maximum pullback of 21% [12] Current Market Sentiment - The presence of market support suggests that the pullback in the current bull market may be less than 20%, but whether it can be kept below 10% remains uncertain and will test market control skills [14] - The market is experiencing a mix of profit-taking and new investors waiting for entry points, indicating that a pullback is inevitable, though the timing is uncertain [14] Sector Insights - The battery industry is witnessing a new round of expansion driven by high capacity utilization rates, as evidenced by the recovery in orders and performance from companies like Xian Dai Intelligent and Hangke Technology [15] - The successful launch of the "Longquan No. 2" all-solid-state battery by Yiwei Lithium Energy targets sectors such as humanoid robots, low-altitude aircraft, and AI, highlighting the industry's innovation and growth potential [15] Military Industry Performance - Recent profit-taking in military stocks has led to a significant drop in military ETFs, with a notable decline of 6.7% [16] - Examples of military stocks include: - Changcheng Military Industry, which saw a 106% increase since August despite limited institutional coverage [17] - AVIC Optoelectronics, which has shown only a 4% increase over the same period, indicating a disparity in performance among military stocks [19] ETF Comparisons - There are differences between various battery ETFs, such as 562880 and 159755, based on their constituent stocks, which impacts their performance relative to market movements [20] Trading Strategies - The company has paused regular investment in funds due to the significant rebound in the A-share market, indicating a strategic shift in investment approach [15] - The company is maintaining liquidity to capitalize on potential future market corrections, suggesting a cautious yet opportunistic investment strategy [15]

Market Overview - The recent market adjustment saw all three major indices decline, with over 4,000 stocks in the red, particularly impacting the technology sector, while banks and gold performed well [1] - The current market turbulence is viewed as an opportunity rather than a risk, emphasizing the importance of understanding market signals [1] Policy and Economic Indicators - Domestic policies are supportive, with the introduction of a high-quality standard system for industrial mother machines and the initiation of personal consumption loan interest subsidies, benefiting high-end manufacturing and consumer sectors [3] - External uncertainties persist, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.55% and the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut rising to 87.4%, indicating potential for increased short-term volatility [3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is critical at the 3830 level, which aligns with the 20-day moving average and a previous gap; a significant drop below this level could dampen market sentiment [3] - The ChiNext Index needs to maintain above 2850 to sustain investor confidence [3] Fund Flows and Investor Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in capital flows, with significant reductions in positions in electronics and computing sectors, while banks and gold are seeing a return of funds, highlighting a consensus on defensive investments [3] - Retail investors are cautious, but institutions have been gradually increasing their positions over the past three days, focusing on undervalued sectors like liquid cooling servers and photovoltaics [3] - Despite a net outflow of 18.2 billion from northbound funds, industrial capital is actively investing, as evidenced by Kweichow Moutai's 3 billion increase in holdings, indicating long-term investment strategies are still in play [3] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Prioritize defensive stocks such as banks (e.g., China Merchants Bank), gold (e.g., Shandong Gold), and power (e.g., Huaneng International) due to their low valuations and high dividends [3] - Look for opportunities in sectors that have seen declines, such as semiconductors (e.g., Huahong Semiconductor) and consumer electronics, especially with the upcoming Apple event [3] - Maintain caution regarding high-valuation technology stocks (e.g., Cambrian's PE over 400 times) and recently unlocked shares [3]

Group 1 - The market experienced a significant drop after a prolonged period of growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3800 points, indicating a potential market correction [1][3] - Over 4700 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets declined, with major indices falling across the board, suggesting that large funds are controlling market heat [3][7] - The recent market surge was deemed excessive, leading to a necessary adjustment, with expectations of further declines in the short term but a belief that the overall bull market remains intact [5][7] Group 2 - The recent drop is attributed to several factors, including increased margin requirements from certain brokerages and the impact of specific stocks like Cambrian's performance affecting market sentiment [7] - Despite the current downturn, the fundamental basis of the bull market has not changed, and normal corrections are expected as part of a healthy market cycle [5][6] - The market is anticipated to stabilize soon, with expectations of a rebound by the end of the week if no further negative news emerges [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a consistent and cautious investment strategy, regardless of market conditions, to avoid significant losses and ensure long-term success [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Investor Behavior - The stock market has shown signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around 3600 points, leading to increased investor enthusiasm and a focus on high-volatility stocks [2]. - During market uptrends, investors often shift from high-quality stocks to lower-quality, high-volatility stocks, which can lead to significant losses when the market corrects [2][5]. - Historical lessons indicate that declining stock quality and increased leverage are primary reasons for investor losses during bull markets [2][5]. Group 2: Investment Principles - The key to successful investing lies in minimizing "non-forced errors," which are mistakes made without external pressure, akin to amateur players losing points due to their own errors [3][7][9]. - Investors should focus on maintaining high-quality stock holdings and avoid the temptation to chase low-quality stocks during market booms [5][6]. - The principle of avoiding significant capital loss is paramount, as even a single large loss can be catastrophic for investors [6][8]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Strategy - A successful long-term investment strategy requires careful selection of companies and adherence to fundamental investment principles, rather than frequent trading based on market trends [6][9]. - The article draws parallels between professional and amateur tennis, highlighting that professional players win by their actions, while amateurs often lose due to their mistakes, underscoring the importance of disciplined investment practices [8][9].