关注矿端潜在扰动， 静待基本面拐点 氧化铝月报 2026/02/06 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 目录 04 供给端 02 期现端 05 进出口 03 原料端 06 需求端 07 库存 月度评估 月度要点小结 01 月度评估 ◆ 期货价格：期货价格方面，截至2月6日，氧化铝指数较12月31日价格累计上涨3.33%至2824元/吨。月内整体商品做多氛围较为活跃，叠加几内亚铝土矿供应扰动和产能检修增加， 氧化铝期货价格震荡上行。但氧化铝持续反弹仍需关注强有力供给端收缩政策落地、几内亚政府推出铝土矿挺价政策、到期仓单得到充分消化。基差方面，1月现货维持深度贴水， 截至2月6日，山东现货价格较AO2603合约价格贴水201元/吨。月差方面，1月连一和连三月差维持震荡，截至2月6日，连一和连三月差录得-68元/吨。 ◆ 现货价格：氧化铝月内产量维持年内高位，累库趋势持续，现货价格承压下行。分地区来看，截至2026年2月6日，广西、贵州、河南、山东、山西、新疆 ...

Group 1 - The company has established a stable supply of scrap aluminum through a comprehensive domestic recycling network and also utilizes import channels from multiple countries and regions [2] - The EU's strengthened export controls on scrap aluminum do not impact the company [2]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 铝类市场周报 逢低备库需求回暖，铝类或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面供给端，原料氧化铝低位运行，铝价虽有回调，但电解铝厂理论利润情况仍较好，加之其冶炼厂启停成本较 高，生产开工情况仍保持高位稳定，在运行产能小幅提振，但受限于行业上限的制约，其增量有限，电解铝供给量大体持稳。 需求端，下游加工企业随着铝价回调进行逢低节前备货，随着备货临近尾声，加之长假放假的影响，下游需求或将逐步走弱。 整体来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给稳定、需求有所回暖的局面，产业库存季节性积累。 观点总结：沪铝主力合约轻仓逢低短多交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 3 行情回顾：沪铝周线震荡回落，周涨跌幅-5.07%，报23315元/吨。氧化铝震荡偏强，周涨跌+2.02%，报2824元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，几内亚雨季影响逐渐降低发运回升，国内土矿供给 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid development of the clean energy industry in Zhaotong, driven by wind, water, and solar energy, aiming for a multi-energy complementary system and integrated development of "source, grid, load, and storage" [1][5][11] Group 1: Hydropower Development - The Baihetan Hydropower Station, the second-largest in the world, is a key component of China's "West-to-East Power Transmission" project, contributing to the world's largest clean energy corridor [4] - The Baihetan Hydropower Station has a total installed capacity of 16 million kilowatts, with each unit capable of generating 150 kilowatt-hours of electricity, sufficient for a typical household's monthly consumption [4][5] - Zhaotong's three major hydropower stations have a combined installed capacity of 13.86 million kilowatts, with the Xiluodu Hydropower Station alone generating over 700 billion kilowatt-hours since its commissioning [4][5] Group 2: Wind and Solar Energy Integration - Zhaotong is expanding its wind and solar energy capacity, with the Qiaojia County Laishishan Wind Farm having an installed capacity of 223,500 kilowatts and generating over 5.499 billion kilowatt-hours to date [6][9] - The Baigoulin Photovoltaic Power Station has a total installed capacity of 200 megawatts, expected to generate over 250 million kilowatt-hours by 2025, benefiting from Zhaotong's high solar irradiation [9][11] Group 3: Industrial Integration and Economic Impact - The integration of clean energy has significantly benefited local industries, with Yunnan Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. projected to consume approximately 9.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity by 2025, achieving a high operating rate of up to 90% [11][14] - The company has produced 3.3545 million tons of green aluminum, generating an industrial output value of 59.712 billion yuan and paying 2.171 billion yuan in taxes [14][16] - The presence of abundant green electricity and a complete upstream supply chain has enabled local manufacturers to meet stringent supply chain requirements from global high-end clients [16]

长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格23130-23170元/吨，跌190元，贴水170-贴水130，涨30 元；广东现货23105-23155元/吨，跌230元，贴水160-贴水110，涨25元；上海地区23120-23160元/吨， 跌190元，贴水180-贴水140，涨30元。 宏观层面，凯文·沃什的提名短期内对美元构成"利好"，其暂时缓解了市场对美联储独立性极端担忧， 避免了信任危机瞬间爆发。他丰富的个人经验与出色的沟通能力，有助于稳定市场短期预期。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 2月6日亚市时段，美元指数在97.90附近窄幅震荡，近期总体延续自四年低点95.57的反弹态势。随着紧 张局势升级，美国建议公民撤离伊朗，关键外交谈判面临严重分歧与军事威胁。地缘危机"紧急升级信 号"引发避险买盘，周五亚欧时段，现货黄金震荡上行，带动有色金属板块情绪部分修复，限制铝价跌 幅。外交博弈在军事压力不断加剧的背景下展开，美国持续在海湾地区集结兵力，特朗普总统近期措辞 强硬，威胁若德黑兰不满足美国一系列要求，将对其发动军事打击。美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum Corporation, through its subsidiary China Aluminum Co., Ltd., plans to acquire a stake in Brazil's aluminum industry to enhance resource security and optimize industrial layout [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves establishing a joint venture with Rio Tinto International Holdings to purchase 68.596% of Brazil Aluminum Company from Watertland [1] - Following the transaction, Brazil Aluminum will be consolidated as a subsidiary in China Aluminum's financial statements [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The partnership with Rio Tinto, a global mineral resource supplier, brings valuable international mining experience to the venture [1] - Brazil Aluminum Company operates a comprehensive aluminum industry chain in Brazil, covering bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum processing, recycled aluminum, and power supply [1] Group 3: Production Capacity - Brazil Aluminum is projected to produce 720,000 tons of alumina and 364,500 tons of low-carbon aluminum liquid in 2024 [1] - The acquisition is expected to enhance China Aluminum's capabilities in green development, ESG governance, and international operations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Ming Tai Aluminum Industry (601677.SH) has a stable supply of scrap aluminum due to its well-established domestic recycling network and diversified import channels, which are unaffected by the EU's strengthened export controls on scrap aluminum [1] Group 2 - The company relies on a comprehensive domestic recycling network for its scrap aluminum procurement, ensuring a stable supply [1] - The import channels for scrap aluminum cover multiple countries and regions, further enhancing supply stability [1] - The EU's strengthened export controls on scrap aluminum do not impact the company's operations [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the effective and professional services provided by the State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, which have significantly alleviated the electricity supply concerns of Gansu Dongzhan Aluminum Co., Ltd, enabling the company to focus on production and development [1][3]. Group 1: Service Implementation - The company has implemented a customized service approach, focusing on proactive engagement and precise support to address the urgent electricity needs of industrial enterprises since 2025 [1][4]. - A dedicated technical service team was formed to provide on-site assistance, ensuring comprehensive safety checks and tailored electricity supply plans for the equipment testing at Gansu Dongzhan Aluminum [3][4]. Group 2: Technical Support and Training - The technical team conducted hands-on training to enhance the internal capabilities of the enterprise, covering operational standards and safety protocols for electricity usage [4]. - Real-time monitoring of key parameters such as current and voltage was established during the testing phase, ensuring zero faults and uninterrupted power supply, which facilitated the timely completion of equipment adjustments [4]. Group 3: Commitment to Continuous Improvement - The company is committed to continuously upgrading its service measures and optimizing processes to better meet the electricity demands of enterprises, thereby reinforcing the foundation for high-quality development in the region [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the aluminum market has deviated from fundamentals, with the focus on factors like the US dollar, liquidity, and precious metals. Despite some marginal changes in supply, the long - term growth logic of aluminum remains unchanged, but it is experiencing a short - term correction [4]. - The report上调s the 2026 overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum production forecasts. However, the market is more sensitive to supply cuts than increases, and the long - term bullish view on aluminum as a hedging asset and its connection to new energy and the new economy persists [4]. - For the short - term market, it is advisable to wait for volatility to subside before making trading decisions [4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Changes and Outlook - Since the beginning of the year, the aluminum price trend has been highly synchronized with volatility, and the trading logic has deviated from aluminum fundamentals. The focus is on the US dollar, liquidity, and precious metals [4]. - There have been marginal changes in the supply side at home and abroad, including the restart of production at some aluminum plants. The report上调s the 2026 electrolytic aluminum production forecasts for both overseas and domestic markets [4]. - The short - term decline in the number of receiving manufacturers is due to high prices screening out less - resilient downstream buyers. The market is more sensitive to supply cuts than increases [4]. - The short - term view is to wait for the volatility to stabilize before trading [4]. 2. Latest Production Launch Tables of Domestic and Overseas Aluminum Plants - **Overseas**: The production expectations of three overseas plants have been revised upwards. The Lista aluminum plant in the US has restarted 31,000 tons of idle capacity after renewing its power contract. The expected restart time of the Grundartangi aluminum plant in Iceland has been advanced, and the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique is expected to have a partial production cut instead of a complete shutdown [7]. - **Domestic**: A northeast domestic aluminum plant with a built - in capacity of 752,500 tons and a current operating capacity of 420,000 tons plans to restart about 300,000 tons of idle capacity in mid - to - late March [7]. 3. Overseas Aluminum Plant Power Contract Progress - The power contract of the US Lista aluminum plant has been renewed to 2035, and it restarted 31,000 tons of idle capacity in January 2026. Other plants also have different power contract situations and production statuses [9]. 4. Overseas Aluminum Plant Production Launch Schedule - In 2026 and the long - term, there are various production - related activities overseas, including new construction, expansion, and restart of production at different aluminum plants. The annual total planned new production capacity in 2026 is 1.7355 million tons [10]. 5. Expected Table of New Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Projects in 2026 - There are different types of projects in China, such as replacement, expansion, and production restart. The total new production capacity in 2026 is expected to be 1.127 million tons, with limited net - increase capacity from replacement projects [13]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets at Home and Abroad - The report上调s the 2026 overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum net - increase production forecasts by 120,000 tons and 195,000 tons respectively. The supply - demand balance shows a slight deficit in 2026 [16]. - The long - term growth logic of aluminum remains unchanged, and the market should tolerate short - term corrections [16]. 7. Cost and Profit - Alumina prices have been falling since mid - 2025, which is one of the reasons for the increased profits of aluminum plants. Electricity prices and pre - baked anodes are in a range - bound state [22]. - The average profit of electrolytic aluminum has dropped from about 8,700 yuan/ton last week to 7,000 yuan/ton this week, and the average cost has slightly increased to 16,200 yuan/ton due to a 0.01 - yuan/degree increase in electricity prices [26]. 8. Internal - External Price Ratio - The Shanghai - London ratio has fluctuated. After rising to a phased high on January 7, it has declined. The LME aluminum price led the decline, and the domestic market followed. The internal - external price ratio is currently range - bound [31]. - The overseas spot premiums in North America and Japan have increased week - on - week [31]. 9. Downstream and Inventory - The downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low, especially for aluminum sheets, foils, and strips. It is expected to recover after the holiday [45]. - As of Thursday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, while the LME aluminum inventory has decreased. The social inventory of aluminum rods has also increased [48]. - The processing fee of aluminum rods has fluctuated after reaching a high this week [54].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-06 氧化铝库存矛盾难以解决 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23340元/吨，较上一交易日变化-420元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-180元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化30元/吨；中原A00铝价23240元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化50元/吨至-280元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录23340元/吨，较上一交易日变化-430元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化15元/吨至-180元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-02-05日沪铝主力合约开于23800元/吨，收于23385元/吨，较上一交易日变化-525元/吨， 最高价达23905元/吨，最低价达到23300元/吨。全天交易日成交473671手，全天交易日持仓207370手。 库存方面，截止2026-02-05，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存83.6万吨，较上一期变化1.9万吨，仓单库存154332 吨，较上一交易日变化4043吨，LME铝库存492975吨，较上一交易日变化-2200吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-02-05SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2555元/吨，河南价格录得 2 ...