据此前报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间2日在社交媒体上发文称，他当天上午与印度总理莫迪通电话， 莫迪同意印度停止购买俄罗斯石油。特朗普还称，莫迪同意显著增加美国石油的采购量，并可能购买委 内瑞拉石油。 中新网2月3日电 据俄罗斯卫星通讯社3日报道，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫表示，俄罗斯尚未收到关 于印度拒绝购买俄石油的任何声明。 佩斯科夫还称，俄罗斯打算继续以各种可能的方式发展与印度的双边关系，并且俄方也正在这样做。 ...

每日经济新闻 地缘政治催化，石油景气度持续修复，2月3日，石油ETF（561360）收涨近3%，资金抢筹，近20日净 流入超20亿元。 光大证券指出，全球战略资源博弈加剧，深海资源战略价值凸显。地缘局势紧张抬升油价，考虑到美国 页岩油边际成本高企、OPEC+平衡油价的诉求以及2026年原油需求预期向好，预计油价在60美元/桶～ 80美元/桶区间宽幅震荡，中高位运行为石化板块景气奠定基础。供给端，炼化扩能接近尾声，在"反内 卷"政策及"油转化"加速背景下，行业供需有望改善，迈向高质量发展。化纤方面，涤纶长丝新增产能 较少，产能结构性优化加速。整体来看，石化行业供需态势有望持续改善，景气度持续修复。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数主要涵盖石油、天然气勘探、开采及服 务等相关领域的上市公司证券，以反映油气产业链相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数成分股具有较 强的周期性特征，受国际油价波动影响较大，是跟踪能源行业表现的重要指标之一。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The demand for crude oil is in the off - season. Due to the impact of winter storms, the EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventories have decreased. The International Monetary Fund has raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather has boosted the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns. However, the global floating storage of crude oil is high, and the crude oil market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest EIA January monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude of crude oil supply in 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently Venezuela has little impact on the global crude oil supply - demand situation. Geopolitical risks such as those related to Iran and Ukraine have cooled down. The cold wave is weakening, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will suspend the increase in oil production in March. The EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected due to winter storms, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventories have decreased. The International Monetary Fund has raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather has boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns. The global floating storage of crude oil is high, and the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. Geopolitical risks such as those related to Iran and Ukraine have cooled down. Trump has reduced the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. India may stop buying Russian oil and buy more from the U.S. and possibly Venezuela. The Tianji oilfield in Kazakhstan will gradually resume production, but only half of the production capacity can be restored before February 7. Geopolitical tensions have cooled down, the current cold wave has weakened, and the impact of the next cold wave should be monitored. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2603 fell 4.93% to 449.4 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 446.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 453.9 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 4567 to 31633 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, but also raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. As of the week of January 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels, heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3]. Supply - side Situation - The OPEC latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products has increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year, and the decline compared with the same period last year has decreased. The weekly production of gasoline has increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production is 8.266 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.39% compared with the same period last year. The weekly production of diesel has increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production is 3.721 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.78% compared with the same period last year. The production of gasoline and diesel has increased month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to increase by 2.49% month - on - month [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail prices for gasoline and diesel will increase starting February 3, with gasoline prices rising by 205 yuan per ton and diesel by 195 yuan per ton, reflecting fluctuations in international oil prices during the adjustment period [3][7]. Price Adjustments - From February 3, the national average prices for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel will increase by 0.16 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.17 yuan per liter, respectively [3][7]. - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 8 yuan [3][7]. International Oil Price Trends - During the adjustment period from January 20 to February 2, international oil prices experienced a rise followed by a decline, with the average price higher than the previous adjustment cycle [3][7]. - Initial price increases were driven by geopolitical tensions, including increased U.S. pressure on Iran and severe winter weather affecting U.S. oil production and exports, leading to a significant drop in commercial oil inventories [3][7]. - Brent crude oil futures prices peaked above $70 per barrel but later fell to around $66 per barrel as geopolitical tensions eased with the initiation of U.S.-Iran negotiations [3][7]. Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates continued volatility in international oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, despite the initiation of dialogue between the U.S. and Iran [5][9]. - The International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, while the International Energy Agency has increased its global oil demand growth forecast for this year by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, indicating a potential support for future oil prices [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices, marking the second consecutive rise in fuel prices since 2026, with gasoline rising by 205 yuan per ton and diesel by 195 yuan per ton [1] Price Adjustment - As of February 3, the price adjustments will result in an estimated additional cost of around 8 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline [1] International Oil Prices - The recent increase in international oil prices is attributed to several factors, including reduced oil production in the U.S. due to weather conditions and geopolitical pressures affecting oil supply [1] - Despite a temporary drop in oil prices due to easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the overall trend remains upward [1] Future Price Outlook - Analysts suggest that if geopolitical situations stabilize, there may be potential for a decrease in international oil prices, which could lead to a higher probability of domestic price reductions in the future [1] Demand Dynamics - The demand for gasoline is expected to remain strong due to increased travel during the Spring Festival and pre-holiday stockpiling by consumers, while diesel demand is anticipated to be weak as outdoor construction projects halt for the holiday [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to fluctuations in international oil prices, marking the third adjustment in 2026 and the second increase this year [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of February 3, 2026, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will rise by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively [1] - This adjustment translates to an increase of 0.16 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline and 0.17 yuan per liter for 0 diesel [1] - For an average private car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost approximately 8 yuan more [1] Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - During the adjustment period from January 20 to February 2, international oil prices initially rose and then fell, with an average level higher than the previous adjustment period [1] - Factors influencing this trend included geopolitical tensions, particularly increased U.S. sanctions on Iran, and adverse weather conditions affecting U.S. oil production and exports [1] - Brent crude oil futures prices briefly exceeded $70 per barrel due to these factors [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Following the easing of geopolitical tensions with the initiation of U.S.-Iran negotiations, international oil prices have significantly decreased, currently around $66 per barrel [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates continued volatility in international oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties [2] - The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, while the International Energy Agency has increased its global oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, indicating improved economic prospects and oil demand [2]

据隆众资讯原油分析师李彦介绍，本轮调价周期原油综合变化率以正向开局，并一直维持在正向区间， 最终对应成品油为上调，也是2026年以来的第二次上调。"本轮调价周期内，变化率最高为第九个工作 日的5.01%，最低为第一个工作日的2.13%。最终调价窗口开启时、汽油和柴油对应上调幅度分别为205 和195元/吨。" 今晚24点，国内成品油调价窗口将再度开启。 据国家发展改革委今日傍晚消息，本轮成品油调价周期内（1月20日至2月2日）国际油价先升后降。据2 月3日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机 制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、柴油零售限价每吨分别上调205元、195元。 折合每升价格后，92号汽油上调0.16元/升、95号汽油上调0.17元/升、0号柴油上调0.17元/升。 本次调价对于私家车主和物流企业来说成本增加。 据行业机构隆众资讯分析，以油箱容量50L的普通私家车计算，这次调价后，车主们加满一箱油将多花 8元左右；按市区百公里耗油7L-8L的车型，平均每行驶一百公里费用增加1.2元左右。而对满载50吨的 大型物流运输车辆而言平均每行驶一百公里，燃油费用增 ...

新华社加拉加斯2月3日电 题：美军突袭一个月后，委内瑞拉情况如何？ 新华社记者田睿 席玥 2026年1月3日凌晨，美军突袭委内瑞拉，强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人并将他们带到美国。美总统特朗普随后称，美国将"管理"委内瑞 拉直至实施"安全"过渡，美大型石油企业将进入委内瑞拉投资。一个月过去了，委内瑞拉石油产业现状如何？美委关系有何变化？委内瑞拉国内 局势走向何方？ 委石油产业现状如何 对委军事行动后，特朗普政府一方面扣押与委内瑞拉有关的油轮，继续以军事力量切断委原油流通；另一方面通过签署行政令、与委达成石油交 易协议等手段，谋求掌控委石油销售及收入。美国副总统万斯公开表示，委内瑞拉只有在符合美国利益的前提下才能出售石油。 1月29日，委内瑞拉代总统德尔西·罗德里格斯签署一项石油法改革相关法案，其内容包括允许私人和外国投资委内瑞拉石油行业。一些媒体指 出，该法案赋予外国企业对委石油生产的运营控制权，是美国施压下的产物。 美国财政部随后发布政策文件，称将放松对委内瑞拉石油业的制裁，解除对部分涉及委内瑞拉石油交易活动的限制，这被外界认为旨在赋予美油 企在委更大的经营权限。美国能源行业分析人士指出，该政策的实施前 ...

研究所 原油研发报告 原油日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 原油现货市场日报 研究员： 赵若晨 期货从业证号： F03151390 投资咨询从业证号： Z0023496 ： zhaoruochen_qh | 极端天气 | 根据欧洲中期天气预报中心 （ECMWF） 及MetDesk与维萨拉公司的 | | --- | --- | | | 联合分析， 未来两周欧洲西部将迎来异常温暖的天气， 而北欧和欧洲 | | | 东部边缘地区则将遭遇严寒天气。 | | 贸易物流 | 在特朗普总统表示将停止俄罗斯石油进口作为两国更广泛贸易协议的 | | | 一部分后， 印度炼油商正寻求新德里就未来采购俄罗斯原油事宜提供 | | | 指导。 | | | 美国总统特朗普表示， 在印度总理莫迪同意停止购买俄罗斯石油后， | | | 他将把对印度的关税降至18%， 此举缓解了两国间的紧张关系。 | | | 伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽希奇在X平台上表示： "我已指示外交部长， 在具 | | | 备适宜环境——即不受威胁与不合理预期干扰的条件下， 秉持尊严、 | | | " 审慎与高效的原则， 推动公平公正的谈判。 | | 能源转型 | 当前美国 ...

Group 1: Trade Agreement between the US and India - The US and India have reached a trade agreement where the US will reduce tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1][4] - India has agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil and significantly increase oil purchases from the US and potentially Venezuela [1][4] - India will work towards reducing its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US goods to zero, with a commitment to purchase over $500 billion worth of US products including energy, technology, and agricultural products [1][4] Group 2: Iranian Nuclear Negotiations - Iran's President has ordered the initiation of nuclear negotiations with the US, with high-level talks expected to occur in the coming days [2][10] - The US has confirmed that a presidential envoy will visit Israel to discuss the situation [2][10] Group 3: Silver Futures Adjustment - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced adjustments to the margin levels and price limits for silver futures contracts, reducing the margin from 26% to 23% and the price limit from 25% to 22% [3][12] Group 4: Market Reactions and Company News - Shares of Cambrian Technologies experienced a significant drop of nearly 14%, with the company stating it is unclear about the reasons behind the market fluctuations [5][14] - Nvidia's plan to invest $100 billion in OpenAI has stalled, with management expressing doubts about the deal [6][14] - Oracle issued $25 billion in investment-grade bonds to support infrastructure for AI projects [6][14]