2—3月尿素农业需求及复合肥需求集中释放，一定程度上透支了4—5月的需求支撑力，导致尿素价格整体重心持续下移。其间，5月初出 口政策调整及6月中旬以伊冲突曾短暂推高期货价格，但随后均出现回落。整体上，在供大于需背景下，尿张英素涨势难以持续，6月下旬 至7月初价格逐步趋于平稳。 企业可采取差异化套保策略规避风险 供应方面，三季度新疆奥福化工、山东晋控日月新材料、安徽晋煤中能等企业将陆续投产，预计新增产能在150万吨；四季度潞安化工、 河南心连心等企业也将跟进投产，新增产能预计在130万吨。下半年随着新增产能进一步释放，叠加开工率回升，预计尿素日均产量将进 一步走高，或维持在19.5万～22万吨的水平。从产量数据看，2025年上半年尿素产量合计3600万吨，同比增加420万吨，增幅13.2%。预计 2025年全年尿素产量或突破7300万吨，同比增加800万～900万吨。 需求方面，农业、复合肥、工业及出口领域表现各有不同。 农业需求方面，受天气条件及作物种植周期阶段性影响，下半年将以小麦底肥需求为主。 复合肥需求受双重因素驱动：一是磷肥、钾肥阶段性供应紧张；二是尿素价格触底反弹，推动复合肥企业一季度开工积极性大幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is experiencing a significant price increase due to multiple factors, including rising international prices, improved export expectations, and stable domestic demand [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of July 10, domestic urea spot prices rose by 10 to 30 yuan per ton, with further increases of 5 to 20 yuan per ton reported on July 12 [2]. - Urea futures prices have also increased, reflecting a bullish market sentiment [2]. - The main sales market's spot price increased from 1750 yuan per ton to over 1800 yuan per ton in the past week [2]. Group 2: International Market Influences - Recent Indian tender prices significantly exceeded market expectations, with East Coast prices reaching 495 USD per ton [3]. - The price in the Middle East and North Africa markets jumped to around 480 USD per ton, influenced by the Indian price increase [2][3]. - The domestic export guidance price for small granular urea reached 440 USD per ton, equivalent to approximately 3000 yuan per ton in the main production areas [2]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic agricultural demand is entering a seasonal slowdown, but there remains some incremental demand in certain regions [2]. - The total port inventory of urea reached nearly 490,000 tons as of July 10, significantly higher than historical levels for the same period [2]. - Urea production in the previous week was reported at 198,000 tons per day, which is about 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that international urea prices will remain high, with strong domestic export expectations stabilizing urea prices [5]. - In the medium to long term, the high profit margins for upstream coal-based urea producers may lead to sustained high production levels, putting pressure on future urea prices [5]. - The market is currently characterized by high supply, weak domestic demand, and strong export expectations, with a potential increase in production capacity of nearly 2 million tons expected to impact future supply dynamics [5].

Core Viewpoint - Yara International (000893) shows significant growth potential with a projected net profit increase of 170% to 244% for the first half of 2025, driven by stable production and rising sales of potassium fertilizers [3][6]. Trading Information Summary - On July 11, Yara International's stock closed at 32.68 yuan, up 1.81%, with a turnover rate of 1.88%, a trading volume of 152,600 shares, and a transaction value of 495 million yuan [1]. - The fund flow on the same day indicated a net inflow of 22.69 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 19.16 million yuan [2][6]. Performance Disclosure Highlights - Yara International forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between 730 million yuan and 930 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 170% to 244%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be in the same range, with a basic earnings per share of 0.80 to 1.02 yuan [3][6]. Company Announcement Summary - Yara International announced that Huineng Group has become the largest shareholder after acquiring 46,202,560 shares (5% of total equity) from Zhongnong Group, bringing its total shareholding to 14.05%. Huineng Group has committed not to transfer its shares for 18 months and has provided assurances to maintain the company's independence and reduce related party transactions [4][5][6]. - The financial data of Huineng Group from 2021 to 2023 shows total assets increasing from 92.83 billion yuan to 134.74 billion yuan, with net profits of 10.68 billion yuan, 20.22 billion yuan, and 20.22 billion yuan respectively [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market sentiment has slowed down. The spot price of urea is rising steadily, and the order - receiving situation has slowed down. There is no pressure to cut prices due to sufficient pre - orders. The daily production of urea has little change, with some previously overhauled devices resuming production this week, and it is expected that both overhaul and resumption will occur next week with a small daily production fluctuation. The agricultural demand is more cautious than the industrial demand. The agricultural demand in Northeast and North China is expected to end this month, followed by a window period. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remains low, and the inventory has increased. Although the industrial demand is weak, the export orders are still being shipped, and the inventory has been continuously reduced. The international price is rising, and the domestic urea market sentiment is also high. The short - term trend is mainly oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the export policy [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The intraday trend of the market was low - opening and low - going, with an oscillating decline. The spot price of urea rose steadily, and the order - receiving situation slowed down. There was no pressure to cut prices. The daily production of urea changed little, with some previously overhauled devices resuming production this week, and it is expected that both overhaul and resumption will occur next week with a small daily production fluctuation. The agricultural demand was more cautious than the industrial demand, and the agricultural demand in Northeast and North China is expected to end this month, followed by a window period. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, and the inventory increased. Although the industrial demand was weak, the export orders were still being shipped, and the inventory was continuously reduced. The international price was rising, and the domestic urea market sentiment was also high. The short - term trend was mainly oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the export policy [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - In the futures market, the urea main 2509 contract opened at 1776 yuan/ton, with an intraday weak oscillation, and finally closed at 1773 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The trading volume decreased by 10,443 lots to 197,786 lots. Among the top twenty main positions, the long positions decreased by 4,313 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,589 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed, such as Dongzheng Futures' net long positions increasing by 3,696 lots and Guotai Junan's net short positions increasing by 2,246 lots [2]. - In the spot market, the spot price of urea rose steadily, and the order - receiving situation slowed down. There was no pressure to cut prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1770 - 1830 yuan/ton [4]. Basis Tracking - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation rose, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract strengthened compared with the previous trading day, reaching 77 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton [7]. Supply Data - On July 1, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, the same as the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.63% [10].

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit of 730 million to 930 million yuan for the current reporting period, representing a year-on-year increase of 170% to 244% compared to 269.99 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is also projected to be between 730 million and 930 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 172% to 247% from 267.96 million yuan in the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share are anticipated to be between 0.80 yuan and 1.02 yuan, compared to 0.29 yuan per share in the same period last year [1] Reasons for Performance Increase - The increase in operating performance is attributed to several factors: stable production of potassium fertilizer, with production volume rising compared to the previous year [1] - The company has implemented a flexible and diversified sales strategy, focusing on both international and domestic markets, leading to increased sales volume [1] - The rise in both international and domestic potassium fertilizer prices has contributed to higher sales prices and improved gross profit margins for the potassium fertilizer business [1] - Tax incentives have also positively impacted the company's operating performance for the first half of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yara International (000893) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a range of 730 million to 930 million yuan, representing a growth of 170% to 244% compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is also projected to be between 730 million and 930 million yuan, marking an increase of 172% to 247% year-on-year [1] - The basic earnings per share are estimated to be between 0.8 yuan and 1.02 yuan [1] Business Operations - The sales price of potash fertilizer increased year-on-year during the first half of the year, contributing to improved profitability [1] - The gross profit margin for the potash fertilizer business also saw a year-on-year increase [1] - The company's operating performance for the first half of 2025 is expected to rise year-on-year, aided by tax incentives [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yara International's stock has reached a new low in terms of rolling price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, indicating potential investment opportunities in the fertilizer industry [1] - As of July 11, Yara International's closing price was 32.68 yuan, with a PE ratio of 24.09, marking a 683-day low and a total market capitalization of 30.198 billion yuan [1] - The company ranks 18th in the fertilizer industry based on PE ratio, with the industry average at 25.22 and the median at 22.79 [1][2] Group 2 - Yara International's main business includes potassium salt mining, potassium fertilizer production, and sales, with key products being potassium chloride and brine [1] - The latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 shows that the company achieved a revenue of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 373.53%, with a gross profit margin of 54.12% [1] - In terms of capital flow, on July 11, the net inflow of main funds into Yara International was 22.6917 million yuan, with a total inflow of 27.6536 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to promote its bio-based slow-release fertilizer technology as a model for global agricultural sustainability and food security, leveraging the "One Country, One Product" initiative supported by the UN FAO [1][2] Group 1: Technology Development - The company shared a report on the development of bio-based slow-release fertilizer technology, highlighting its latest achievements in research and application [1] - The technology integrates three national science and technology awards in China, emphasizing its environmentally friendly, biodegradable nature, precise nutrient release, high fertilizer efficiency, and reduced labor and fertilizer costs [1] - The technology also incorporates Germany's Schneider Efficiency Technology 2.0, which includes nutrient leakage prevention, plant vaccine technology, and microbial activation technology, improving soil microenvironment and enhancing fertilizer utilization [1] Group 2: Product Development - The company has developed specialized slow-release fertilizer products for over ten crops, including wheat, corn, rice, garlic, banana, and peanut, tailored to support the "One Country, One Product" initiative [1] - These products utilize the award-winning slow-release fertilizer technology and Schneider Efficiency Technology 2.0, aiming to increase crop yield and quality while reducing production costs for farmers [1] Group 3: Strategic Goals - The company has made comprehensive plans for technical support, solution development, and promotion to better support project construction [2] - The goal is to help farmers in project countries increase their income, drive local industry upgrades, and promote a more efficient, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable agricultural food system [2]

Core Viewpoint - The project for ultra-low emissions renovation of Boiler No. 3 at Jilin Petrochemical Fertilizer Plant has been completed and is operational, significantly reducing nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide emissions annually [1][2] Group 1: Project Details - The renovation project was officially started on December 13, 2024, and completed in 190 days, overcoming challenges such as winter construction difficulties and limited working space [2] - The project achieved performance acceptance after 72 hours, with sulfur dioxide emissions at 20 mg/m³, nitrogen oxides at 32 mg/m³, and dust at 7 mg/m³, all exceeding design values by reductions of 34%, 36%, and 30% respectively [2] Group 2: Future Plans - The company plans to apply the successful experience from the renovation of Boiler No. 3 to the upcoming renovations of Boilers No. 1 and No. 2, aiming for all boiler units to achieve ultra-low emissions [2]

Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the urea industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, urea shows a state of small - scale price increases dominated by speculation. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in early July, with a decline in supply due to centralized maintenance and a decrease in daily production. On the demand side, traders are picking up goods for export, and short - term inventory accumulation is unlikely. However, as domestic agricultural demand nears its end, fundamental pressure is increasing, which restricts the upside of prices. The daily price fluctuations depend on the continuation of spot trading activity and the macro - level drive from the warming of the macro - sentiment in the commodity market [3][4] Summary by Directory Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,777 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,777 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the trading volume was 253,398 lots, an increase from the previous day; the open interest was 208,229 lots, a decrease of 2,957 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 2,645 tons, an increase of 400 tons; the trading value was 900.403 million yuan, an increase of 311.459 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was 83 yuan, up 13 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 57 yuan, up 33 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was 23 yuan, down 7 yuan; the spread between UR09 and UR01 was 44 yuan, up 10 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea producers changed. Henan Xinlianxin's price was 1,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Shanxi Fengxi's was 1,720 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Jiangsu Linggu's was 1,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions also increased by 20 yuan to 1,860 yuan/ton and 1,720 yuan/ton respectively. The industry's operating rate was 84.99%, up 0.86 percentage points, and the daily output was 196,760 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons [2] Industry News - On July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 967,700 tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons from the previous week, a 4.99% decrease. The inventory of some enterprises increased in Hebei, Henan, Heilongjiang, Qinghai, and Xinjiang, while it decreased in Anhui, Hainan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing [3]