1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2602 contract, consider lightly building long positions around 1700 points or lower for delivery; for the 2604 contract, maintain rolling short - selling. The 2602 contract has three scenarios: neutral, optimistic, and pessimistic, and the price trend in week 3 is uncertain. The 2604 contract has a relatively higher probability of short - selling, and in the short - term, beware of the risk of premium water [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - This week's view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is to lightly build long positions in the 02 contract for delivery and pay attention to the premium water risk in the 04 contract. In the past week, the weekly average capacity in January remained at 318,000 TEU/week, and the number of pending voyages was reduced to 1. There were changes in different alliances' ship schedules. In February, there are currently 4 blank sailings and 8 pending voyages, with a weekly average capacity of 275,000 TEU/week, and there is still a large room for revision [4][5] 3.2 Demand - From the perspective of China's exports (valued in amount, updated to November), in November, China's year - on - year exports to the US declined from - 25.2% in October to - 28.6%, while the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the EU increased by 13.9 percentage points to 14.8%. Exports to ASEAN decreased from 11.0% to 8.2% but still showed resilience, and exports to Africa further increased to 27.6%. In terms of Asian exports to Europe (updated to October) and North America (updated to October), there were different trends in container trade volumes in different months. The US import volume tracking (updated to December 11) also showed certain trends [33][36][39] 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Supply Chain Risk Events - Geopolitical situation disturbances include the limited progress of the second - stage cease - fire talks in Gaza, the increased risk of internal conflict in Yemen, and the symbolic passage of Maersk's Sebarok through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, which does not mean the full normalization of the Red Sea route [52] 3.3.2 European Line Ship Schedule - In the past week, the weekly average capacity in January remained at 318,000 TEU/week, and there were changes in different alliances' ship schedules. In February, there are currently 4 blank sailings and 8 pending voyages, with a weekly average capacity of 275,000 TEU/week, and there is still a large room for revision [54] 3.3.3 Turnover Efficiency - It includes aspects such as the sailing speed of container ships, the number of idle container ships, regional congestion situations (including ports in China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America), and the congestion situations of major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [63][67][69] 3.3.4 Static Capacity - In the past three months, there were new 12,000 + TEU container ships launched by the top ten liner companies, and there are also new ships to be delivered in the remaining months of 2025 and in 2026. The delivery plans of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU container ships from 2024 - 2026 are also summarized [80][83][85] 3.4 Price - For the 2512 contract, the delivery settlement price is the average of the SCFIS indices of weeks 50, 51, and 52. The SCFIS index of week 51 is expected to be between 1570 - 1630 points, and that of week 52 is expected to be between 1730 - 1780 points, with the delivery settlement price of the 2512 contract likely to be between 1600 - 1640 points. In January, based on the quotes of leading companies, the average FAK in the market in week 2 is expected to be around 2800 US dollars/FEU [16][17]

Group 1: Core Achievements - In 2025, Haixia Co., Ltd. received 25 awards in various categories, including corporate governance, investor relations management, ESG sustainable development, and shareholder returns, reflecting high recognition from industry associations, regulatory bodies, and the market for the company's overall value and development achievements [1][34]. Group 2: Corporate Governance and Board Construction - Haixia Co., Ltd. was awarded four honors by the China Association for Public Companies for its solid practices in governance, including Best Practice for Board Office and Excellent Practice Case for Internal Control, showcasing its competitive advantages in governance mechanisms and compliance practices [3][36]. - The company received the Best Board Award for 2025 from a leading financial media outlet, indicating high evaluation of its board operation efficiency by the capital market and professional media [5][38]. - Haixia Co., Ltd. won the Special Contribution Award for Corporate Governance at the 20th Golden Roundtable, a prestigious recognition in the field of corporate governance in China, attracting over 700 listed companies [7][40]. - The company also received the M&A Restructuring Award and Corporate Governance Award from the Shanghai Securities Journal, highlighting its outstanding performance in governance and capital operations [9][42]. Group 3: Investor Relations Management - The company was awarded the Best Practice in Investor Relations Management by the China Association for Public Companies, with its case study included in the annual compilation of best practices, providing a reference for investor relations work in the capital market [12][45]. - Haixia Co., Ltd. received the Excellent Team Award and Shareholder Return Award at the 16th Tianma Awards, reflecting its solid practices in investor relations and commitment to shareholder returns [14][47]. - The company was recognized with the Golden Dawn Investor Relations Award by the Securities Market Weekly, demonstrating its strong foundation in information disclosure and investor communication [16][49]. - It also won the 2025 Outstanding Investor Relations Construction Award from Value Online, focusing on the effectiveness of its investor relations system [18][51]. Group 4: ESG and Sustainable Development - Haixia Co., Ltd. was selected for the 2025 Excellent Practice Cases in Sustainable Development by the China Association for Public Companies, showcasing its achievements in compliance governance and electric vehicle transportation practices [20][53]. - The company received two honors from the China Transportation Enterprise Management Association, including the "Outstanding Report" for its 2024 ESG report, emphasizing the quality of its ESG practices [22][55]. - It was awarded the A-share ESG Demonstration Case at the 2025 Yinghua Awards, highlighting its ESG management level and leadership in sustainable development in the passenger and roll-on/roll-off transportation industry [27][60]. - The company also received the "New Credit Jinlan Cup" for Excellent Sustainable Development Case, reflecting its achievements in sustainable governance and green operations [25][58]. - Haixia Co., Ltd. was recognized with the 2025 ESG Value Transmission Award from Value Online, showcasing its efforts in ESG system building and effective value communication [29][60]. Group 5: Individual and Team Awards - In 2025, Haixia Co., Ltd. focused on professional fields, with its Chairman Wang Ran awarded the "Outstanding Entrepreneur" title, and General Manager Cai Nianjian recognized as "Excellent Secretary" with a 5A rating from the China Association for Public Companies [29][62]. - The company’s Deputy General Manager and Secretary of the Board, Zhang Fenfen, received the Elite Secretary Award, while independent director Hu Xiuqun and the head of the Securities and Legal Department, Liang Jie, were recognized for their contributions [29][62]. Group 6: Future Plans - Haixia Co., Ltd. aims to deepen its strategic layout, enhance information disclosure quality, and use digital tools to improve investor communication efficiency, while steadily advancing towards building a top global roll-on/roll-off fleet [34][67].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 交通运输 关注元旦航旅出行预定数据与委内瑞拉油轮进展 周观点：航旅纵横大数据显示，截至 12 月 17 日，元旦假期国内、跨境航线 机票预订量同比分别增长 46%、18%；16 日，ICE 布油收 58.84 美元（盘中 最低 58.72 美元），为 5 月来首次。继续看好"扩内需"及"反内卷"下航空 板块中长期景气度，在油汇环境友好环境下航司盈利有望不断改善。基于周期 视角，在制裁趋严、OPEC+增产逐步反馈到出口的背景下，行业周期逻辑渐 明，可关注板块回调中的布局机会，重点关注招商轮船、中远海能 H/A。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数上涨 2.04%，跑赢上证指数 2.01 个百 分点（上证指数上涨 0.03%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，涨幅前三名 的板块分别为航空运输、跨境物流、公交，涨幅分别为 6.84%、3.10%、2.82%； 仅公路货运板块下跌，跌幅为-1.76%。 出行：航旅纵横大数据显示，截至 12 月 17 日，元旦假期国内、跨境航线机 票预订量同比分别增长 46%、18%。继续看好"扩内需 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the logistics sector, specifically highlighting companies such as SF Holding and ZTO Express due to their valuation and operational resilience [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 5% year-on-year increase in business volume in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, with revenue at 137.65 billion yuan, a 3.7% decline year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand. The chemical product price index decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,421 flights per day, a 2.34% increase year-on-year. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector's container transport index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while the shipping rates remain under pressure due to fluctuating demand. The report notes a significant year-on-year decline in shipping rates [5]. - The road and rail sector showed a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 2% decrease week-on-week. However, the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 2.0% from December 13 to December 19, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.3% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing a slowdown in container shipping rates, with the CCFI index at 1124.73 points, down 24.6% year-on-year. The report highlights the need to monitor demand and pricing trends closely [22][23]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is seeing a positive trend in passenger traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in October. The report expects significant profit growth in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58][80]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The rail sector reported a year-on-year increase in passenger traffic of 8.94% in November, while road freight volume increased by 3.57% year-on-year. The report indicates a stable outlook for both sectors [85][90].

Core Insights - Shanghai's import and export value reached 4.1 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, surpassing the national average growth rate by 2 percentage points [1] - Exports amounted to 1.83 trillion yuan, growing by 11.2%, while imports totaled 2.27 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.6% [1] - November saw record monthly exports, with a total of 1.87 trillion yuan, marking an 18.2% increase, and imports at 200.9 billion yuan, up by 4.4% [1] Trade Partners and Market Diversification - The EU remains the largest trading partner for Shanghai, with import and export growth accelerating by 1.1 percentage points in the first 11 months [1] - Significant growth in trade with emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa, indicating effective market diversification [1] Export Dynamics - Machinery and electrical products accounted for 65.4% of total exports, with a value of 1.19 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.3% [2] - The export of "new three samples" products, particularly hybrid vehicles, surged by 174.8% to 25.72 billion yuan, showcasing strong demand [2] - The export of liquid cargo ships increased by 130.5% to 34.24 billion yuan, driven by the green low-carbon trend [2] Import Trends - High-tech product imports reached 737.21 billion yuan, growing by 6.3%, with notable increases in semiconductor manufacturing equipment (35.4%), computers and components (24%), and aircraft (74.3%) [2] - The import of raw materials such as metal ores and copper products also saw growth, indicating active manufacturing sector activities [2] - Consumer market vitality is reflected in the increased imports of various consumer goods, including fruits, dairy products, toys, and sports equipment [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly recommending stocks such as China Shipbuilding, China Power, and Sumec [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the first shipping industry index fund on December 19, 2025, and notes a continued increase in second-hand ship prices, with a 5-year-old VLCC price rising by $2 million to $120 million [4]. - Seasonal fluctuations are observed in freight rates, with oil and bulk carrier second-hand prices increasing. The report recommends stocks like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger demand, recommending stocks such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - The second-hand ship price index increased by 0.38% to 194.32 points, with a recommendation for COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4]. - VLCC freight rates decreased by 11% to $101,623 per day, while Suezmax rates increased by 9% to $78,107 per day [4]. Airline Sector - The report indicates that the global aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with an aging fleet and supply constraints expected to continue [4]. - Airlines are projected to experience significant profitability improvements, with recommendations for stocks such as China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for industry performance [4]. - Recommended stocks include Shentong Express and Yunda Holdings, with a focus on companies benefiting from Southeast Asian e-commerce growth [4]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic are expected to maintain steady growth, with data showing a slight decrease in freight volume [4]. - The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts will be key investment lines through 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly recommending stocks such as China Shipbuilding, China Power, and Sumec [4]. Core Insights - The launch of the first shipping industry index fund on December 19, 2025, indicates a growing interest in the sector. The prices of second-hand ships continue to rise, with a notable increase in the price of 5-year-old VLCC ships by $2 million to $120 million [4]. - The report highlights a seasonal decline in freight rates as the Christmas holiday approaches, while the prices of oil and bulk second-hand ships are on the rise. The second-hand bulk carrier price index increased by 0.38% to 194.32 points [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the air transport sector, predicting significant improvements in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger demand, recommending stocks like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - The report notes that the second-hand ship market is experiencing a positive trend, with specific recommendations for stocks such as China Shipbuilding and China Power [4]. - VLCC freight rates have decreased by 11% week-on-week, averaging $101,623 per day, while the Middle East to Far East route recorded $109,772 per day [4]. - The report anticipates that shipping rates may face downward pressure but highlights shipowners' reluctance to significantly lower prices [4]. Air Transport - The report indicates that the global aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with an aging fleet expected to continue. The report suggests that airlines are poised for a golden era of profitability due to improved operational metrics and demand recovery [4]. - Recommended stocks in the airline sector include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Cathay Pacific [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for industry performance. Recommendations include Shentong Express and Yunda Express, with a focus on companies benefiting from Southeast Asian e-commerce growth [4]. - The report notes that the logistics demand remains robust, with rail freight and highway truck traffic showing steady growth [4]. Market Performance - The transportation index rose by 2.04%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.31 percentage points. The air transport sector saw the highest increase at 6.84% [5][12]. - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors within transportation, highlighting the resilience of air transport and the challenges faced by the express delivery sector [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the aviation and logistics sectors, including China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and SF Express [2]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from multiple catalysts, including the recovery of passenger demand and improved ticket pricing due to high load factors and regulatory support [4][6]. - The logistics and express delivery industry is experiencing a divergence in growth rates, with a focus on improving operational quality through policies aimed at reducing "involution" and the adoption of automation technologies [6][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation Sector - The report highlights the positive impact of the national strategy to expand domestic demand, which is expected to drive up airline stock prices. For instance, companies like China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines saw stock increases of 12.48% and 13.60%, respectively [4]. - Key metrics for airlines from December 15 to December 19 include average daily flights and aircraft utilization rates, with notable year-on-year increases in flight numbers for several airlines [4]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the aviation sector, driven by a combination of recovering demand, regulatory support for pricing, and a gradual recovery in aircraft utilization rates [6]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is witnessing a mixed trend in volume and pricing, with November data showing a year-on-year increase in delivery volumes for some companies while others face declines [6]. - The report notes that the integration of Danbird Logistics into Shentong Express is expected to enhance scale and operational efficiency [6]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to improve profitability across the express delivery industry, with a focus on enhancing service quality and pricing strategies [6][7]. Infrastructure - The report suggests that the infrastructure sector, particularly highways, remains stable with consistent cash dividends and ongoing expansion projects [6]. - Data from December 8 to December 14 indicates a slight decline in freight traffic on highways and railways, but overall port throughput showed a year-on-year increase [6]. Shipping and Trade - The shipping sector is experiencing fluctuations in freight rates, with oil shipping showing strength while dry bulk rates are declining. The report suggests that geopolitical factors may reshape global shipping dynamics [7]. - The report recommends monitoring companies in the shipping sector for potential investment opportunities, particularly those positioned to benefit from seasonal demand increases [7].

Core Viewpoint - Hainan's announcement of full island closure operation on December 18, 2025, represents a strategic move by China to counter global containment efforts, emphasizing openness rather than isolation [1][8][22] Group 1: Policy and Economic Implications - The concept of "closure" in Hainan does not imply isolation but rather a model of "open first, control second," allowing international access while regulating domestic channels [3][6] - Hainan will operate as a special zone with zero tariffs and simplified approvals for international goods, effectively becoming a "domestic outside" area in terms of trade rules [3][6] - The unique policy of "30% value-added processing for domestic sales exempt from tariffs" provides a significant competitive advantage for businesses, allowing them to import raw materials duty-free and sell processed goods to the mainland without tariffs [11][13] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - Hainan is not intended to replace Hong Kong or Singapore; instead, it aims to leverage its vast land and natural resources to focus on sectors like agriculture, deep-sea exploration, aerospace, and high-end manufacturing [15][17] - The region is positioned as a "testbed" for advanced medical devices and data flow, facilitating early access for domestic patients and exploring cross-border digital economy cooperation [19][21] Group 3: Global Context and Future Outlook - Hainan's closure is seen as a significant step comparable to China's WTO accession in 2001, marking a shift from product-level to institutional-level openness, allowing China to participate in international rule-making [22] - The initiative aims to attract global capital, talent, and technology to Hainan, countering efforts to isolate China and reinforcing the country's commitment to globalization [21][22]

Core Insights - Hong Kong is recognized as a significant international shipping hub, with discussions at the 2025 World Shipping Conference focusing on challenges such as decarbonization, geopolitical impacts, and crew shortages, emphasizing the need for dialogue and cooperation in the shipping industry [1] Group 1: Hong Kong's Strategic Advantages - Hong Kong serves as a vital gateway for connecting domestic and international markets, leveraging its geographical proximity to mainland China, favorable investment environment, advanced technology, efficient legal system, and abundant talent pool [2] - The city has maintained its position as the fourth in the International Shipping Center Development Index for six consecutive years, hosting over 1,200 port and maritime-related companies [2] - Hong Kong's unique advantages under the "One Country, Two Systems" framework, including a common law system and low tax regime, attract global shipping enterprises [2] Group 2: Green Transition Initiatives - Hong Kong is actively pursuing a green transition in its port operations, having invested nearly 200,000 tons in green fuel and preparing to launch methanol bunkering [4] - The Hong Kong government has established a clear roadmap and objectives through the "Green Marine Fuel Bunkering Action Plan" to achieve the International Maritime Organization's target of net-zero emissions by 2050 [4] - Legislative changes have expanded the types of marine fuels to include liquefied natural gas and methanol, facilitating a legal framework for green fuel adoption [6] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts for Decarbonization - Industry representatives stress the importance of breaking down regional barriers and achieving global collaboration for the decarbonization of the shipping sector [7] - Hong Kong is building a cooperative network that includes partnerships with ports in mainland China and Chile, enhancing regional synergy and international cooperation [7] - The financial advantages of Hong Kong can support the production and financing of alternative fuels, creating a competitive edge that is difficult for other regions to replicate [2][7] Group 4: Role in Global Maritime Regulation - Hong Kong's pragmatic approach to rule-making considers the interests of various stakeholders, positioning it as a potential coordinator of maritime regulations amid global fragmentation [3] - The city is expected to facilitate participation from international organizations and multinational entities in global emission reduction efforts, contributing to a collaborative green shipping transition [8]