Core Viewpoint - The development of the Nanjing aviation hub is crucial for enhancing global connectivity and regional influence, serving as a strategic foundation for high-quality regional development [1][3]. Group 1: Current Status and Challenges - Recent research indicates that the Nanjing aviation hub is facing significant developmental pressure, with passenger throughput projected to reach 31.38 million by 2025, which is approximately 62% lower than Hangzhou Airport's 50.46 million [3]. Group 2: Recommendations for Improvement - To enhance the capabilities of the Nanjing hub, it is recommended to accelerate the planning and construction of the T3 terminal and implement intercity railway projects to create an integrated air-rail transport system, thereby promoting coordinated development within the Nanjing metropolitan area [3]. - It is suggested to strengthen the integration and unified operation of airport resources across Jiangsu Province, leveraging the Eastern Airport Group to attract base airlines and open new routes, with a focus on supporting Nanjing Airport [3].

2月2日，2026年春运将正式启动。面对持续增长的客流量与冬季复杂天气考验，甘肃省民航机场集团围 绕"平安、便捷、温馨"目标，全面部署春运保障工作，全力守护旅客团圆路。春运期间，预计保障旅客 吞吐量232万人次、货邮吞吐量5.8万吨。 来源：人民网 编辑：钟姊姣 针对冬季天气特点，甘肃民航完善"预警—响应"机制，强化与气象、公安等部门联动及除冰雪作业。同 时，严格安检、消防、地面交通、食品及治安管理，织密春运安全网。 春运期间，甘肃民航计划加密兰州至北京、广州、深圳等国内热门航线，适时增开国际航线，并在部分 繁忙航线投放更大机型。目前，甘肃省内支线航线达27条，7条串飞航线平均客座率超75%。同时，通 过强化与铁路、公路的衔接，延长接驳班次、保障夜间疏运，着力畅通旅客出行"最后一公里"。 同时，甘肃民航将持续优化服务流程，依托"小红帮您"等服务品牌，加强对老年人、儿童、残疾人、首 乘旅客等群体的关怀帮扶。推广无纸化通关、自助值机等智慧服务，设置急客通道，完善候机楼内便民 设施，开展志愿引导与节日氛围营造，努力为旅客提供更加温馨、便捷的出行服务。 主编：张建兵 张弛 责编：王学睿 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hangzhou Airport has upgraded its "Instant Hangzhou Travel" service, expanding it from the existing China Southern Airlines "Hangzhou-Guangzhou" express route to include the "Hangzhou-Shenzhen" express route, providing more efficient travel options for passengers between Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces [1]. Group 1 - The "Instant Hangzhou Travel" service has already facilitated over 100,000 passengers since its launch on the "Hangzhou-Guangzhou" route, helping more than 1,000 late-arriving passengers board their flights [9]. - The service allows passengers without checked luggage to arrive at the boarding gate up to 15 minutes before flight departure, alleviating the anxiety of last-minute travel [9]. - Passengers who miss their flights can directly reschedule and check in through the China Southern Airlines official app at the boarding gate, eliminating the need to return to service counters [9]. Group 2 - The "Hangzhou-Shenzhen" route serves as a crucial air passage connecting Zhejiang to the Greater Bay Area, with a concentration of business and travel passenger flow [9]. - The upgraded service includes dedicated check-in counters, clear directional signage, expedited security checks, and priority shuttle services, significantly reducing travel time and enhancing passenger experience [9]. - Future plans for Hangzhou Airport include deepening cooperation with airlines and continuously innovating service products to meet diverse travel needs and improve convenience and satisfaction [9].

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines has officially launched a direct flight route from Shanghai Pudong to Kaohsiung, Taiwan, with the inaugural flight achieving a 100% passenger load factor, primarily serving Taiwanese families returning home for the Lunar New Year [1]. Group 1: New Route Launch - The new Shanghai-Kaohsiung route aims to facilitate cross-strait communication and provide a convenient travel option for Taiwanese compatriots during the festive season [6]. - The inaugural flight's passenger load rate reached 100%, indicating strong demand for the route, especially among families returning for the New Year [1][6]. - The flight schedule includes departure from Shanghai at 14:30 and arrival in Kaohsiung at 16:55, with the return flight leaving Kaohsiung at 17:55 and arriving back in Shanghai at 20:15 [6]. Group 2: Promotional Activities - Spring Airlines is offering promotional ticket prices for the new route to encourage travel during the Lunar New Year [6]. - The airline plans to launch additional routes during the Spring Festival, including Shanghai to Changde, Shanghai to Shiyan, and Shanghai to Penang, Malaysia, while also increasing the frequency of over 30 existing routes [6]. - A special campaign titled "Flying Together in the Year of the Horse" has been introduced, allowing travelers to access ticket vouchers through the airline's official app and mini-program [6].

央视网消息（新闻联播）：2月2日零点，2026年全国春运正式启动，交通部门提前准备，应对未来40天95亿人次的跨区域人员流动。 今天，全国铁路开始发售2月15日也就是春节假期首日火车票，自1月19日春运火车票开始发售至今天16时，已累计发售春运期间火车票6461万张。 为满足旅客旺盛出行需求，全国铁路加大运力投放。客流高峰期全国铁路单日最高可安排开行旅客列车超1.4万列，运力同比增长5.3%，并可根据客运需求 做到每日调整。 CGTV/ 13) 新 N 新闻联播 今年春运期间，单日自驾出行和高速公路车流量有望创历史新高，交通运输部加强综合运输运力调配，22个空铁联运枢纽、48个火车站实现与城市轨道交通 安检互认。今天，三亚凤凰国际机场T3航站楼投入试运行，保障春节期间进出海南岛旅客顺利出行。春运期间，全国民航预计日均保障航班19400班，同比 增长5%，有力保障旅客出行需求。 ...

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The logistics sector is experiencing significant growth, with Jiushi Intelligent achieving a hundredfold increase from 200 to 20,000 autonomous delivery vehicles over three years, in collaboration with Cainiao [3][15] - Global air freight demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines projected to return to profitability [3][16] - The low-altitude economy is advancing from concept to reality, with eVTOL vertical take-off and landing points being established at landmarks like Guangzhou Tower and Baiyun Mountain [3][25] - The Chinese ship leasing market is developing multidimensionally, with steady growth in scale and efficiency, despite a slowdown in asset growth rate [3][26] - The Ministry of Transport held its first routine press conference for 2026, forecasting a total of 9.5 billion cross-regional passenger flows during the Spring Festival [3][28] Industry Dynamics - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a decline in air freight prices [4][30] - The domestic express delivery volume increased by 2.30% year-on-year in December 2025, while express delivery revenue rose by 0.70% [4][33] - The shipping and port sector shows mixed trends, with the domestic container shipping price index declining while dry bulk freight rates are rising [4][38] Investment Recommendations - Opportunities in the express logistics sector for international market expansion are recommended, with a focus on companies like SF Holding and Jitu Express [4] - The aviation sector is highlighted for investment opportunities driven by increased demand during the Spring Festival, recommending China National Aviation and China Southern Airlines [4] - The low-altitude economy and autonomous driving sectors are identified as trend-driven investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Heli and suggesting attention to Cao Cao Travel [4][5]

Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's policies may lead to a stronger US dollar, impacting global asset pricing, with a notable reaction seen in precious metals [4][12][17] - The report highlights three main channels through which exchange rates affect equity markets: corporate cost and profit elasticity, capital flow and asset pricing, and macroeconomic expectations and risk appetite [20][21][22] - The report suggests that during the current phase of the global dollar cycle, Chinese equity assets are in a favorable revaluation window due to the transition to a mild appreciation of the RMB and foreign capital inflows [4][19][60] Group 2 - The analysis indicates a significant negative correlation between the US dollar and the S&P 500 index, where a weaker dollar often corresponds with a rising stock market [25][27][33] - The report discusses the unique "devaluation—foreign capital inflow—transaction expansion—valuation increase" model in Japan, where yen depreciation enhances export competitiveness and EPS for Japanese companies [39][42] - In the Eurozone, the report notes a weak coupling between the euro and European stock markets, with euro depreciation benefiting export-oriented sectors but being diluted by internal economic disparities [47][53] Group 3 - The report identifies specific industries that benefit from RMB appreciation, including aviation, paper manufacturing, basic chemicals, semiconductors, and banks, due to reduced import costs and improved financial conditions [21][22][60] - The analysis of Brazil's IBOVESPA index shows a high correlation with the Brazilian real, indicating that currency fluctuations significantly impact asset pricing in emerging markets [54][56][58] - The report emphasizes the importance of incorporating exchange rate logic into asset allocation strategies, particularly in the context of RMB appreciation and its effects on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [59][63]

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a significant improvement in operational performance for 2025, despite projected negative net profits due to deferred tax asset adjustments [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.3 to -1.8 billion for 2025, an improvement from -4.226 billion in 2024 [1]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be -2.7 to -3.3 billion for 2025, compared to -4.983 billion in 2024 [1]. - The total profit is forecasted to be between 0.2 to 0.3 billion, indicating a turnaround from previous losses, primarily due to the reversal of prior deductible losses [1]. Operational Metrics - The company anticipates a total transportation turnover of 27.981 billion ton-kilometers and nearly 150 million passenger transport, representing year-on-year growth of 10.82% and 6.68%, respectively [1]. - The company achieved the highest passenger load factor among the three major airlines, with an annual ASK growth of 6.75% and RPK growth of 10.66% [1][2]. Market Trends - The passenger load factor reached 85.86%, an increase of 3.04 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic and international load factors at 87.28% and 83.22%, respectively [2]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost demand, with average ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase [2]. Investment Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of -1.49 billion, 5.2 billion, and 8.2 billion, respectively [3]. - The target market capitalization is set at 168.5 billion RMB, with a target price of 7.63 RMB, indicating a potential growth of 40% from current levels [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the transportation sector [5] Core Insights - The dry bulk freight rates have unexpectedly rebounded during the off-season, with significant increases noted in large vessels. The VLCC market saw a rise in freight rates due to geopolitical risks and strong demand for commodities like iron ore and grain [1][2] - The report highlights key companies to watch, including China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, Haitong Development, COSCO Shipping International, and CIMC Enric [1][2] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The VLCC freight rates surged again, while dry bulk freight rates showed an unexpected off-season recovery, particularly for larger vessels. The BDI index reached 2148 points on January 30, with the BCI at 3507 points [1][2] - The transportation sector index fell by 1.40%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.96 percentage points. The top-performing segments were shipping, ports, and highways, with gains of 2.19%, 1.42%, and 0.10% respectively [21][22] Travel - Domestic flight ticket bookings for the upcoming Spring Festival exceeded 7.16 million, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year. The report remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for the aviation sector due to recovering demand and supportive policies [3][13] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing a resurgence in freight rates, with the index for oil transport from the Persian Gulf to China rising to WS137.2 points, an increase of 42.6 points from the previous day. The dry bulk freight rates are also on the rise, supported by strong demand for iron ore and grain [14][15] - Key companies in the shipping sector include China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping International, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [17] Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: the overseas expansion driven by the rapid growth of e-commerce and the internal competition dynamics that favor leading companies. Recommended stocks include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shunfeng Express [19][20]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 交通运输 干散货运价淡季回升，继续重视油运 周观点：VLCC 运价周五再度冲高；干散货运价淡季超预期回升，大船更为明 显。VLCC 市场，本周 VLCC 市场中东航线 2 月上旬货盘基本收尾，租家出货 节奏放缓，运价在周四之前高位回落；随着运价下跌，船东对进一步下跌表现 出较强抵抗意愿，潜在地缘政治风险再度升温，1 月 30 日，波斯湾至中国 27 万吨原油运价指数升至 WS137.2 点，较 1 月 29 日上涨 42.6 点。受矿石、粮 食等品种发货需求较好支撑，本周干散货运价持续回升，BDI 于 1 月 30 日收 于 2148 点，大船涨势更为明显，BCI 于 1 月 30 日收于 3507 点。重点关注招 商轮船、中远海能、海通发展、中远海运国际和中集安瑞科等。 行情回顾：本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30）交通运输板块行业指数下跌 1.40%， 跑输上证指数 0.96 个百分点（上证指数下跌 0.44%）。从申万交通运输行业 三级分类看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航运、港口、高速公路，涨幅分别为 2.19 ...