Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Aluminum is under pressure at high levels, alumina shows a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The European Central Bank has kept the deposit rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time due to inflation unpredictability, euro appreciation, and tariff risks [3]. - Amazon's capital expenditure is expected to increase significantly in 2026 as it invests heavily in AI, chips, robots, and low - orbit satellites, leading to a post - market plunge [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Fundamentals - **Futures Market**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 23,385, down 570 from the previous trading day [1]. - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2,790, down 34 from the previous trading day [1]. - The closing price of the Aluminum Alloy main contract is 21,915, down 680 from the previous trading day [1]. - **Spot Market**: - The domestic average price of alumina is 2,646, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - The LME aluminum cash - 3M spread is - 27.72, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 853,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Comprehensive News - **European Central Bank**: The European Central Bank decided to keep the deposit rate at 2% on Thursday, the fifth consecutive pause in rate - cuts since last June. Officials are concerned about the impact of euro appreciation on export competitiveness and inflation [3]. - **Amazon**: Amazon's Q4 revenue increased by 14% year - on - year. Its cloud business AWS revenue increased by 24%. In 2026, capital expenditure is expected to increase by 50%, higher than analysts' expectations and Google's guidance median. The company's shares tumbled by more than 10% after - hours [3]. Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping over 2% due to persistent oversupply in the market, although there is potential support from Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nickel supply surplus remains unresolved, indicating ongoing challenges in balancing supply and demand [1] - Short-term market movements are primarily influenced by sector fluctuations rather than fundamental drivers [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - Indonesia's policy to reduce nickel ore quotas may provide some support to the market, but its impact on the overall supply-demand balance is yet to be seen [1]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4075.92, down by 0.64% (-26.29 points) [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13952.71, down by 1.44% (-203.56 points) [2] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4670.42, down by 0.60% (-28.26 points) [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3260.28, down by 1.55% (-51.24 points) [2] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1432.52, down by 1.44% (-20.95 points) [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 1507.29, down by 2.03% (-31.28 points) [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Beauty Care (3.21%), Banks (1.57%), and Food & Beverage (1.31%) [3] - The worst-performing sectors included Non-ferrous Metals (-4.57%), Electric Power Equipment (-3.41%), and Coal (-2.22%) [3] - Concept sectors showing strength included Horse Racing (1.89%) and Duty-Free Shops (1.33%) [3] - Concept sectors underperforming included BC Battery (-5.18%) and Lead Metal (-4.14%) [3] Market Outlook - The market experienced a weak adjustment with all major indices closing lower, particularly the ChiNext Index [4] - Consumer sectors showed resilience with significant activity in Food & Beverage, Retail, and Tourism [4] - The financial sector strengthened in the afternoon, while commodities like Non-ferrous Metals and Oil & Gas faced declines [4] - The overall market sentiment indicated more stocks declining than rising, with over 3700 stocks down [6] Economic Indicators - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.18 trillion, a decrease of 304.8 billion from the previous trading day [6] - Industrial profits for large-scale industrial enterprises are projected to grow by only 0.6% in 2025, below GDP growth [6] - The People's Bank of China emphasized support for key sectors like technology innovation and small to medium enterprises [5] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected declines in the overseas economy and prolonged high interest rates affecting domestic liquidity [7] - Trade tensions between China and the U.S. could further pressure domestic exports [7]

Core Insights - The banking sector is showing strength, with the largest bank ETF (512800) rising by 1.67% and achieving a trading volume of 1.071 billion yuan on February 5, 2026, indicating a potential recovery window for heavyweight stocks as the recent ETF redemption wave appears to be ending [6][18] - The food and beverage sector is also performing well, with the food and beverage ETF (515710) increasing by 1%, driven by improving demand for liquor and a recovering macro environment, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the sector for 2026 [7][18] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors on February 5, 2026, included: - Beauty and personal care: +3.21% - Food and beverage: +1.57% - Banking: +1.31% [3][15] - The sectors with the largest capital inflows were: - Media: 864 million yuan - Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery: 564 million yuan - Textile and apparel: 240 million yuan [3][15] - The sectors with the largest capital outflows were: - Power equipment: -12.671 billion yuan - Non-ferrous metals: -11.937 billion yuan - Electronics: -5.951 billion yuan [3][15] ETF Performance - The bank ETF (512800) has a turnover rate of 8.48% and a net subscription of 210.43 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [5][17] - The food and beverage ETF (515710) has a recent performance of -0.66% over the past six months, reflecting some volatility in the sector [4][17] - The consumer leader ETF (516130) has shown a positive trend with a 3.52% increase over the same period [4][17] Market Trends - A shift in market dynamics is occurring, with funds moving from small-cap stocks to large-cap stocks and from thematic styles to quality styles, indicating a broader market trend towards stability and quality investments [6][18] - The historical performance of the banking sector shows a high win rate before the Spring Festival, suggesting seasonal trends that could influence future performance [18]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant decline in the performance of the Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880), which opened down by 5.31% at 2.070 yuan on February 6 [1] - Major holdings within the Penghua Nonferrous ETF experienced notable drops, including Zijin Mining down 5.07%, Luoyang Molybdenum down 5.28%, and Northern Rare Earth down 2.71% [1] - The performance benchmark for the Penghua Nonferrous ETF is the National Index of Nonferrous Metals Industry, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 118.31% since its inception on March 8, 2021, and a recent one-month return of 9.33% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Silver Hua ETF (159871) and its major holdings, highlighting a significant decline in share prices on February 6, 2023 [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Silver Hua ETF (159871) opened down by 4.35%, priced at 2.067 yuan [1] - Since its inception on March 10, 2021, the fund has achieved a return of 116.34%, with a one-month return of 8.68% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Major holdings in the ETF experienced notable declines, including: - Zijin Mining down by 5.07% - Luoyang Molybdenum down by 5.28% - Northern Rare Earth down by 2.71% - Huayou Cobalt down by 3.31% - China Aluminum down by 3.64% - Ganfeng Lithium down by 3.04% - Shandong Gold down by 3.97% - Yun Aluminum down by 1.78% - Zhongjin Gold down by 6.08% - Zhongmin Resources down by 1.79% [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opened down by 1.97%, closing at 26,354.34, a decrease of 530.90 points [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.42%, indicating a broad decline in tech stocks [1] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Baidu Group dropping over 4%, and Alibaba, Kuaishou, Bilibili, NetEase, and Hua Hong Semiconductor all falling by over 3% [2] - Specific stock performances include: - Baidu Group-SW: down 4.33% to 134.800 - Alibaba-W: down 3.82% to 153.500 - Kuaishou-W: down 3.70% to 70.300 - Tencent Holdings: down 2.24% to 546.000 [3] Metals Sector Performance - The metals sector continued to show weakness, with companies like China Gold International, Jiangxi Copper, Lingbao Gold, and Shandong Gold all declining by over 5% [2] - Specific stock performances include: - China Gold International: down 5.36% to 180.000 - Jiangxi Copper: down 5.34% to 41.100 - Lingbao Gold: down 5.11% to 20.780 [4]

（文华综合） 沪铜下行，主力合约跌幅接近3%，下破100000元关口，主要受市场风险偏好不佳和贵金属大跌拖累。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on February 6, 2026 [1][3][4][5] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On February 6, 2026, the domestic spot price was 101180, the LME spot price was 12846, with a ratio of 8.13; the domestic three - month price was 101270, the LME three - month price was 12924, with a ratio of 7.84. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.87, with a profit of 93.86, and the profit for spot export was - 554.38 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24560, the LME spot price was 3258, with a ratio of 7.54; the domestic three - month price was 24450, the LME three - month price was 3279, with a ratio of 5.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.28, with a profit of - 2419.70 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 23340, the LME spot price was 2998, with a ratio of 7.78; the domestic three - month price was 23455, the LME three - month price was 3024, with a ratio of 7.76. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.36, with a profit of - 1721.69 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 133100, the LME spot price was 16973, with a ratio of 7.84. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.03, with a profit of - 856.16 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16400, the LME spot price was 1911, with a ratio of 8.58; the domestic three - month price was 16610, the LME three - month price was 1960, with a ratio of 12.53. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.54, with a profit of 77.62 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 3750, - 3460, - 3290, and - 3220 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 626, 1149, 1682, and 2215 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 445, - 390, - 345, and - 325 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 227, 360, 494, and 627 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 500, - 430, - 385, and - 325 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 230, 362, 493, and 625 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 65, 120, 195, and 215 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 207, 311, 414, and 518 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 2450, - 2150, - 1780, and - 1920 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 0, and the theoretical spread was 7490 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 3600 and - 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 774 and 786 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 280 and - 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 89 and 231 (or 196 and 262) respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 90 and 155 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 122 and 232 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On February 6, 2026, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (triple - continuous) were 4.14, 4.32, 6.10, 0.96, 1.41, and 0.68 respectively, and in London (triple - continuous) were 3.91, 4.26, 6.60, 0.92, 1.55, and 0.59 respectively [5]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.64% to close at 4,075.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 1.44%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.55% [2][7] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.19 trillion RMB, with over 3,700 stocks declining [7] - In terms of industry performance, the beauty and personal care sector, along with the banking industry, led the gains, while the non-ferrous metals and electric equipment sectors faced declines [7] - Concept sectors such as horse racing and duty-free shops saw gains, whereas BC batteries and lead metal concepts experienced losses [7] - The Hong Kong market showed a slight increase, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.14% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.74% [7] - Internationally, US stock markets saw declines across all three major indices, with the Dow Jones down by 1.20%, the S&P 500 down by 1.23%, and the Nasdaq down by 1.59% [7] - European stock markets also experienced collective declines, while the Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed results [7] Important News - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration jointly announced a "zero tariff" policy for imported goods purchased by residents in Hainan Free Trade Port, allowing for a tax exemption on imports within a limit of 10,000 RMB per person per year, with no restrictions on purchase frequency [3][8] - The 2026 National Service Consumption and Service Trade Work Conference emphasized the shift in consumption structure from goods to services, aiming to cultivate new growth points in service consumption, support service exports, and innovate in digital trade [3][8]