总量研究 周期主题 ETF 资金净流入规模扩大，国防军工主题基金净值表现不佳 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20260202 2026 年 2 月 2 日 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.1.26-2025.1.30）原油价格大涨，国内权益市场指数震荡分化，沪深 300 上涨 0.08%。行业方面，本周各申万一级行业指数多数下跌，石油石 化、通信、煤炭行业涨幅居前，国防军工、电力设备、汽车行业跌幅居前。 基金市场方面，本周权益型基金表现不佳，纯债型基金维持正收益。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内市场新成立基金 47 只，合计发行份额为 482.72 亿份。其中混合型基金 21 只、股票型基金 19 只、FOF 基金 1 只、 债券型基金 4 只、国际(QDII)基金 2 只。全市场新发行基金 45 只，从类型来 看，股票型基金 21 只、混合型基金 15 只、FOF 基金 5 只、债券型基金 2 只、国际(QDII)基金 2 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数表现来看，本周周期、金融地产 主题基金净值上涨，其余主题基金表现不佳，国防军工主题基金净值显著 ...

总体来看，主动权益类产品中的周期主题基金近一年回报率差异较大。Wind数据显示，截至1月28日， 目前全市场基金简称中带有"周期"字样的基金超60只（不同份额分开计算），其中近1年以来回报率超 过100%的基金有9只，如中欧周期优选A、长城周期优选A、新华行业周期轮换A等；有17只基金回报率 不超过50%，这其中还有几只基金的回报率告负。 虽然近一年回报率上的差异与基金经理的调仓节奏有一定关系，但从各家产品的持仓方向上看，配置思 路无疑起到了重要作用。以长城周期优选为例，截至2025年四季度末，该基金的前十大重仓股分别为洛 阳钼业、紫金矿业、天山铝业、东方钽业、江西铜业股份、中国铝业、藏格矿业、国城矿业、西部矿 业、五矿资源。从重仓方向上来看，该基金的前十大重仓股都来自有色板块。 不止是长城周期优选，中欧周期优选、新华行业周期轮换等多只近一年回报率靠前的周期主题基金的 2025年四季度末前十大重仓股大部分都是来自有色板块。 近一年业绩首尾相差逾百个百分点，名称中带有"周期"的基金产品正上演一场激烈的业绩分化。 这背后所映射的，是投资策略的大相径庭：是重仓押注有色赛道以博取极致弹性，还是分散布局多个顺 周期领域 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market indices generally rose during the week, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.86% [4] - The sectors that performed well included non-ferrous metals, communications, and defense industry, while media, real estate, and beauty care sectors saw declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - A total of 39 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a total issuance of 36.589 billion units [5] - The breakdown of new funds includes 8 bond funds, 15 equity funds, 5 FOF funds, 9 mixed funds, and 2 money market funds [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - The performance of long-term thematic funds showed that cyclical theme funds outperformed, while consumer and pharmaceutical theme funds experienced a net value decline [6] - The net value changes for various thematic funds were as follows: cyclical (2.92%), defense industry (2.49%), financial real estate (1.38%), industry rotation (1.30%), industry balance (1.15%), TMT (0.79%), new energy (-0.56%), consumer (-0.89%), and pharmaceutical (-1.56%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - There was a slight inflow of funds into equity ETFs, primarily in small and mid-cap and TMT theme ETFs, with significant inflows into Hong Kong stock ETFs [7] - The median return for equity ETFs was 1.09%, with a net inflow of 2.725 billion yuan, while Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of 0.80% and a net inflow of 6.043 billion yuan [7] Fund Positioning High-Frequency Monitoring - The estimated positioning of actively managed equity funds showed a decrease of 0.22 percentage points compared to the previous week [8] - Increased allocations were observed in household appliances, machinery, and electronics sectors, while reductions were noted in communications, automotive, and media sectors [8] ESG Financial Products Tracking - This week saw the issuance of 20 new green bonds, with a total issuance scale of 12.665 billion yuan [9] - The cumulative issuance scale of the domestic green bond market reached 5.09 trillion yuan, with a total of 4,369 bonds issued [9] - The existing ESG funds in the domestic market totaled 211, with a scale of 149.605 billion yuan, and the median net value changes for various ESG fund types were 0.64% for active equity, 1.06% for passive equity index, and -0.07% for bond funds [9]

Group 1 - The domestic equity market indices generally rose, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.86%. Cycle-themed funds outperformed, while consumer and pharmaceutical-themed funds experienced net value adjustments. A total of 39 new funds were established, with a combined issuance of 36.589 billion units. Stock ETFs saw a slight inflow of funds, primarily increasing positions in mid-cap and TMT-themed ETFs, while Hong Kong stock ETFs experienced significant inflows. The active equity fund positions showed a downward trend [5]. - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has risen for a consecutive month, and the price of electrolytic cobalt has also increased for a month. The lithium price has reached approximately 92,000 yuan per ton, and it is recommended to focus on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion in the lithium mining sector. Prices for various cobalt products have risen, and tungsten prices remain at a high level not seen since 2012. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is at a 19-month high [5]. - The new version of the medical insurance directory and the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory were released simultaneously. The success rate of negotiations for the basic medical insurance reached 88%, the highest in seven years, while the first commercial insurance directory included 19 drugs with a negotiation success rate of 79%. The expansion and quality improvement of the medical insurance directory are emphasized, with a pass rate of 41.48% for drugs outside the directory undergoing expert review, indicating a strict overall standard. The renewal rate for negotiated drugs within the directory is as high as 75% [5]. Group 2 - The investment value analysis of Laopu Gold highlights its successful penetration into the market through product design that incorporates classic cultural elements from both Eastern and Western traditions, appealing to younger consumers. The brand's positioning in high-end shopping districts enhances its luxurious image, and despite a limited number of stores, the output per store is significant. The online strategy accelerates the penetration of traditional gold products, attracting young customers with lower-priced items, which also supports long-term offline development [7]. - For Anjui Foods, the company continues to show positive operational trends in the fourth quarter. Although the intensity of price competition in the industry remains to be observed, feedback from distributors and market responses indicate a potential easing of price competition among frozen food companies since the third quarter, which may lead to improved profitability [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - After the National Day holiday, gold prices surged, and the equity market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising [4] - This week, cyclical theme funds outperformed in net value growth, while pharmaceutical theme funds continued to decline [4] - Domestic stock ETFs saw significant net inflows, with funds primarily increasing positions in TMT, new energy, and cyclical industry ETFs, while reducing positions in large-cap theme ETFs [4] Group 2: Metal and Material Prices - The price of electrolytic cobalt reached 345,000 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3.9%. The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder was 0.94, down 5.9% week-on-week [5] - The price of carbon fiber remained stable at 83.8 CNY/kg, with a gross profit of -8.38 CNY/kg [5] Group 3: Construction and Building Materials - Electronic fiberglass prices increased, and the supply-demand situation for fiberglass may improve in Q4. However, cement prices in East China declined, and downstream demand remained weak post-holiday [5] - The glass industry experienced low production and sales rates after the holiday, with inventory levels increasing significantly compared to pre-holiday [5] Group 4: Company Insights - Huguang Co., Ltd. has focused on the research, development, manufacturing, and sales of automotive wiring harnesses for 28 years, capitalizing on opportunities in the electric and intelligent automotive sectors, leading to simultaneous increases in volume and price [6] - Meitu Inc. showcased its core product functionalities during the 2025 Investor Day, highlighting robust fundamentals and accelerated growth in subscription users driven by AI enhancements and global expansion efforts [6]

Market Overview - After the National Day holiday, gold prices surged, while equity market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing higher [4] - In terms of industries, non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel sectors saw the highest gains, while media, electronics, and electrical equipment sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Fund Issuance - Four new funds were established in the domestic market this week, totaling 1.13 billion units issued. This includes two equity funds, one bond fund, and one FOF fund [5] - A total of 24 new funds were issued across the market, comprising 11 equity funds, 6 bond funds, 4 mixed funds, 2 FOF funds, and 1 international (QDII) fund [5] Fund Performance Tracking - Long-term thematic fund indices showed that cyclical theme funds outperformed, while pharmaceutical theme funds continued to decline. As of October 10, 2025, the weekly performance of various thematic funds was as follows: cyclical (3.31%), financial real estate (0.22%), consumption (-1.23%), industry rotation (-1.29%), defense and military (-1.33%), balanced industry (-1.53%), TMT (-3.00%), new energy (-3.01%), and pharmaceuticals (-3.96%) [6] - Passive index funds saw significant performance from cyclical theme products such as non-ferrous metals and coal [6] ETF Market Tracking - Domestic stock ETFs experienced substantial net inflows, with major investments in TMT, new energy, and cyclical industry ETFs, while large-cap theme ETFs saw reductions in holdings. The median return for stock ETFs this week was -0.74%, with a net inflow of 37.626 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -3.06% and a net inflow of 5.332 billion yuan, while cross-border ETFs had a median return of 1.74% with a net inflow of 0.269 billion yuan. Commodity ETFs had a median return of 2.96% and a net inflow of 3.128 billion yuan [7] - Notably, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board theme ETFs saw significant inflows totaling 5.599 billion yuan, and TMT theme ETFs also experienced substantial inflows of 12.205 billion yuan [7] Fund Positioning - The estimated position of actively managed equity funds increased by 0.07 percentage points compared to the previous week. In terms of industry allocation, sectors such as social services, real estate, and banking received increased funding, while coal, telecommunications, and pharmaceutical sectors faced reductions [8] ESG Financial Products Tracking - One new green bond was issued this week, with a scale of 13.5 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 4.87 trillion yuan and a total of 4,185 bonds issued as of October 10, 2025 [9] - In terms of fund performance, the median weekly return for actively managed equity, passive index equity, and bond ESG funds was -2.40%, 0.22%, and 0.06%, respectively. Thematic funds focusing on low-carbon economy, Belt and Road Initiative, and green electricity showed significant outperformance [9] - As of October 10, 2025, there are 215 ESG funds in the domestic market, with a total scale of 167.335 billion yuan [9]

Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market indices continued to rise, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The communication, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors showed the highest increases, while media, real estate, and public utilities sectors experienced the largest declines [2] - Equity funds performed well, with mixed equity funds rising by 3.06% during the week [2] Fund Product Issuance - A total of 35 new funds were established this week, with a combined issuance of 21.485 billion units. This included 20 equity funds, 3 bond funds, 7 mixed funds, 4 REITs, and 1 FOF fund [3] - Overall, 33 new funds were issued, comprising 18 equity funds, 8 mixed funds, 3 bond funds, 2 REITs, 1 FOF fund, and 1 international (QDII) fund [3] Fund Product Performance Tracking - The net value of long-term thematic funds increased, with the pharmaceutical theme fund showing significant performance advantages. As of July 18, 2025, the weekly performance of various thematic funds was as follows: pharmaceutical (8.38%), TMT (3.91%), defense and military industry (3.44%), and others [4] - Passive index funds in the Hong Kong market, particularly in pharmaceuticals and communications, performed well [5] ETF Market Tracking - Domestic equity ETFs saw profit-taking, with passive funds reducing their positions in broad-based ETFs. However, there was significant inflow into financial real estate and dividend-themed ETFs. The median return for domestic equity ETFs was 1.38%, with a net outflow of 15.043 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong ETFs had a median return of 5.53%, with a net inflow of 5.289 billion yuan [7] - Themed ETFs related to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw a net inflow of 392 million yuan, while financial real estate themed ETFs had a notable net inflow of 4.211 billion yuan [8] Fund Position High-Frequency Monitoring - The estimated position of actively managed equity funds increased by 0.65 percentage points compared to the previous week. Funds were allocated more towards communication, household appliances, and machinery equipment, while electronic, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverage sectors saw reductions [9] ESG Financial Product Tracking - The issuance of green bonds was subdued, with 9 new green bonds issued, totaling 7.079 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of green bonds reached 4.67 trillion yuan, with 3,992 bonds issued [10] - The median net value changes for various ESG funds were as follows: actively managed equity ESG funds (2.20%), passive equity index ESG funds (0.80%), and bond ESG funds (0.07%). Funds focused on low-carbon economy, carbon neutrality, and sustainable development showed significant performance advantages [10]