Core Viewpoint - The focus of investors is shifting from the interest rate decision to the guidance on the future tightening path from the Bank of Japan, particularly comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda after the meeting [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates the Bank of Japan will raise the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in thirty years [1]. - Nomura's analysis suggests that the rate hike decision alone may not catalyze further increases in yields, as the market has already priced in these expectations [1][2]. - There is skepticism regarding whether Ueda will indicate a significantly higher neutral rate than the current market pricing of 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Future Rate Guidance - Analysts believe that if the Bank of Japan fails to convey a faster tightening pace than the market expects, the meeting could be perceived as a "non-event" [1]. - The consensus indicates that the policy rate may reach 1.0% by mid-2026, and any signals of continued rate hikes in 2026 would not surprise the market [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Currency Implications - A simple rate hike may not be sufficient to support a stronger yen; Ueda would need to suggest an accelerated pace of rate increases to prevent yen depreciation [3]. - The current average rate hike pace since the end of negative interest rates is approximately every seven months, with market expectations for the next increase to occur by the third quarter of 2026 [3]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Considerations - While the focus is on the central bank meeting, fiscal policy developments are also important, with key tax reform outlines and preliminary budget proposals expected around December 19 and 26 [4]. - The potential removal of income limits proposed by the Democratic Party for the People could lead to significant tax revenue losses, impacting yields and the yen [5]. - If the initial budget for fiscal year 2026 can be kept below 122.4 trillion yen, it may be viewed positively by the bond market; exceeding 125 trillion yen would have negative implications [5].

Group 1 - The core inflation in the U.S. dropped to a four-year low in November, but economists question the "authenticity" of the report due to significant data gaps caused by a record-length government shutdown [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a year-over-year increase of 2.6% in November, the slowest growth since 2021, but the missing data from October led to assumptions that inflation did not occur that month [1][2] - Economists criticized the report's methodology, particularly the use of "carry-forward imputation" for housing prices, which assumed no price changes, leading to inconsistencies in the data [2][3] Group 2 - The largest discrepancies in the report were found in the housing category, which has been a major driver of inflation, with average rent increases of only 0.06% and owner-equivalent rent increases of 0.14% over two months [3] - Despite the anomalies, some economists believe inflation is cooling, although not to the extent suggested by the report, indicating a need for caution in interpreting the data [4]

人民财讯12月19日电，中共安徽省委关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议发布，其中 提出，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合。加快完善"政产学研金服用"融合发展机制。提升"日新：江 淮科创沙龙"功能。建强安徽科技大市场，增强"科交会""双创汇"影响力。推动前沿科技研发"沿途下 蛋"，布局建设概念验证、中试验证平台，加大场景建设和开放力度。深化职务科技成果赋权改革。完 善"三首""三新"产品应用政策，加大政府采购自主创新产品力度。完善金融支持科技创新的政策和机 制，高标准建设合肥科创金融改革试验区，推动金融支持科创企业"共同成长计划"和"贷投批量联动"提 质扩面，完善耐心资本投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技的支持政策。加强知识产权保护和运用，探索知 识产权市场化交易机制。支持青年科技人才创新创业。加强科学技术普及，培育创新文化，弘扬科学家 精神。加强科技法治、伦理、诚信、安全建设。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming expiration of over $7.1 trillion in options contracts on Wall Street is expected to create significant market volatility, marking a historic event known as "quadruple witching" [1][2]. Group 1: Record Option Expiration - This week's expiration is unprecedented in scale, with over $7.1 trillion in nominal risk exposure set to expire, surpassing all previous records [2]. - Approximately $5 trillion of this exposure is linked to the S&P 500 index, while an additional $880 billion is associated with individual stocks [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics on Quadruple Witching Day - Quadruple witching occurs four times a year, leading to heightened trading activity as traders and market makers engage in significant closing, rolling, or hedging operations [4]. - The trading volume of zero-day-to-expiration options related to the S&P 500 has reached a historical high, accounting for over 62% of total options trading volume, further complicating the market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Potential Market Impacts - The massive options expiration could lead to increased market volatility, with expectations of trading volumes exceeding normal levels as traders settle their positions [5]. - Conversely, there is a possibility of a "pin" effect, where stock prices stabilize around heavily traded strike prices due to market makers' hedging activities [6]. Group 4: Technical Levels and Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index is currently in a "negative gamma" zone between 6700 and 6900 points, indicating a tendency for amplified volatility [7]. - The 6800-point level is identified as a critical "risk pivot," with potential implications for market direction depending on whether the index can maintain above or falls below this threshold [7].

Group 1: Trade and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Commerce strongly opposes the European Commission's recent investigations into multiple Chinese companies under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), highlighting the discriminatory nature of these actions and calling for a fair business environment for foreign investment in Europe [1][1][1] - Ongoing consultations between China and Europe regarding the electric vehicle case are aimed at resolving differences through dialogue, with an emphasis on mutual respect for each other's concerns [1][1][1] - The Ministry of Commerce has approved some general license applications for rare earth exports, indicating progress in compliance and regulatory understanding among Chinese exporters [1][1][1] Group 2: Industry-Specific Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that the photovoltaic industry will enter a critical governance phase in 2026, focusing on capacity regulation and project management to ensure a balanced market [1][1][1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to promote private investment, particularly in key sectors like railways and nuclear power, and to support private enterprises in public-private partnership projects [1][1][1] Group 3: Financial Market Updates - The European Central Bank has maintained its key interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive quarter, while the Bank of England has reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, marking the fourth rate cut this year [4][4][4] - The U.S. Labor Department reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, indicating a decrease from the previous month [4][4][4] Group 4: Corporate Announcements - Shenzhen Dapu Microelectronics Co., Ltd. is set to have its IPO application reviewed by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, marking it as the first unprofitable company to seek listing on the ChiNext board [2][2][2] - Several companies, including Haitai Flavor Industry and Bank of Communications, have announced dividend distributions and stock repurchase plans, reflecting ongoing corporate governance and shareholder engagement [6][6][6]

Economic Growth - Hong Kong's total income for local residents in Q3 2025 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, reaching HKD 908.2 billion [3] - The estimated GDP for Q3 2025 is HKD 853.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [3] - The surplus of local residents' total income over GDP is HKD 54.5 billion, accounting for 6.38% of the GDP for that quarter, primarily driven by net investment income inflow [3] Employment Market - The number of unemployed individuals decreased by over 5,200 in the period from September to November 2025, while the number of underemployed remained stable [4] - The four traditional major industries (financial services, tourism, trade and logistics, professional services) account for 58.2% of GDP and 42.3% of total employment [4] - 48% of surveyed businesses have a positive outlook on Hong Kong's economic prospects for the next 12 months, a significant increase from the previous year [5] Transportation and Logistics - The Hong Kong government is enhancing its international aviation hub, focusing on optimizing multi-modal transport connections within the Greater Bay Area [6] - The government has expanded the exemption of passenger departure tax at Hong Kong International Airport to attract more transit passengers [6] - The "Cantonese Cars Southbound" initiative is set to begin on December 23, allowing eligible vehicles from Guangdong to enter Hong Kong, enhancing cross-border transport [8] Social Welfare and Healthcare - The "Guangdong Residential Care Service Plan" will provide medical subsidies for Hong Kong seniors starting December 22, allowing them to claim reimbursements for medical expenses within the Greater Bay Area [9] - The subsidy cap is set at RMB 10,000 for outpatient expenses and RMB 30,000 for inpatient expenses per person per year [9] Future Outlook - Hong Kong's economy is showing signs of steady recovery, with improvements in local income, labor market stability, and a rebound in retail and tourism sectors [10] - The government is focusing on innovation and technology development, as well as infrastructure improvements to deepen integration with national development [11] - Continuous efforts to enhance social welfare in areas such as elderly services, public housing, and healthcare are essential for ensuring that economic recovery benefits a broader segment of the population [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to achieve its best performance in nearly five years by the end of 2025, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, easing inflation pressures, and a slowing labor market. However, market participants caution that returns may not be as strong in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - As of Thursday, the cumulative return of the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index for 2025 has exceeded 7%, compared to only 1.25% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023 [1]. - The bond market's rebound follows a historic low in 2022, when the Federal Reserve implemented its fastest rate hike cycle in nearly 40 years, causing the index to drop over 13%, marking its worst performance on record [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Bond Prices - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased from approximately 4.58% in January to 4.12% currently, influenced by expectations of further rate cuts and signs of economic slowdown [2]. - The strong performance of bonds in 2025 is attributed to higher coupon income and capital gains from rising prices, as yields were initially at high levels [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - Despite the anticipated weaker performance in 2026, bonds are still considered valuable for portfolio diversification and long-term stability, maintaining the classic "60/40" investment strategy [3]. - Even if bond prices do not rise as significantly in 2026, they are expected to provide positive returns, although the intensity may not match that of 2025 [3][4]. - Concerns exist that additional fiscal stimulus could reignite inflation pressures, potentially leading to a rise in 30-year Treasury yields and increasing the risk of long-term bond sell-offs [4].

特朗普政府力挺人工智能（AI）等高科技，但数据中心的建设热潮也招了民主党人的非议，最近被盯 上的商务部长卢特尼克就被指疑似利用政策东风牟取私利。 美东时间18日周四，美国国会公布的信函显示，25名民主党议员正在推动对卢特尼克存在利益冲突的调 查。以参议员Elizabeth Warren为首的民主党议员17日周三致函商务部的代理监察长Duane Townsend，要 求调查卢特尼克是否违反道德准则，利用职权推动AI数据中心项目为家族谋利。 这些民主党议员质疑卢特尼克在推动数据中心发展的官方行动可能受到利益冲突影响，这些行动可能使 他的家族获利，却让普通美国民众承担更高的能源成本。卢特尼克此前拥有并领导金融服务公司Cantor Fitzgerald（下称"Cantor"），该公司持有房地产经纪公司Newmark Group Inc.的股份，后者为数据中心 提供租赁服务。 信函公布当天，周四稍早的媒体报道指出，卢特尼克的Cantor股权转让直到10月初才完成，他还获得了 特朗普政府的道德豁免。 商务部发言人此后回应称，卢特尼克已完全遵守其道德协议中关于资产剥离和回避的条款，并将继续这 样做，包括出售Cantor和N ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hunan Provincial High Court upheld the first-instance ruling against Pan Jibiao and 18 others for illegal fundraising, confirming their sentences and marking the case as final [1][2]. Group 1: Case Details - The first-instance ruling sentenced Pan Jibiao to life imprisonment for multiple crimes including fundraising fraud and money laundering, while the other 18 defendants received prison terms ranging from five to twenty years [1][2]. - The defendants raised over 911 billion yuan through fraudulent investment schemes, promising high returns, which led to economic losses exceeding 129 billion yuan for investors [3]. Group 2: Company Background - Hunan Shengda Jinxiy Financial Services Co., Ltd., founded by Pan Jibiao, operated without the necessary licenses to accept public deposits, despite claiming to offer wealth management and financial advisory services [5]. - The company promised annual returns of 12% to 14% to investors, but was classified as a non-licensed financial institution by local regulatory authorities [5]. Group 3: Events Leading to Legal Action - In November 2022, the company announced difficulties in repaying investors due to economic conditions and the disappearance of its founder, prompting regulatory investigations [8][9]. - Following Pan Jibiao's disappearance, rumors circulated about the company's potential flight from obligations, leading to significant unrest among employees and investors [9][10].

Group 1: Financial Market Updates - Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced full island closure operations on December 18, with all financial preparations completed, aiming for higher levels of openness [2][7] - Micron Technology's stock surged over 10% in pre-market trading after reporting Q1 FY2026 earnings of $13.64 billion in revenue and $5.482 billion in net profit, driven by tight supply and rising prices of memory chips [2][7] - The U.S. November CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in January [3][8] Group 2: Company Developments - Mu Xi Co., Ltd. debuted on the STAR Market with an initial price of 104.66 CNY per share, closing at 829.9 CNY, resulting in a market capitalization increase of over 290 billion CNY on its first day [3][8] - Trump Media Technology Group announced a merger with TAE, a nuclear fusion energy company, valued at over $6 billion, aiming to support the AI industry with energy [9][10] - Semiconductor equipment leader Zhongwei Company is planning to acquire a stake in Hangzhou Zhonggui, with the stock suspended from trading, indicating a strategic move to build a top-tier semiconductor equipment platform [10]