Core Insights - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Technology 100 Index (SHS Technology 100) has shown a significant upward trend, with a 7.29% increase over the past month, 9.06% over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 27.81% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The SHS Technology 100 Index opened lower but closed higher, reaching 11,262.4 points with a trading volume of 96.186 billion [1] - The index is composed of 100 leading technology companies selected from the mainland and Hong Kong markets, reflecting the overall performance of representative technology stocks [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings of the SHS Technology 100 Index include Tencent Holdings (10.46%), Xiaomi Group-W (9.51%), Alibaba-W (9.48%), Meituan-W (7.78%), BYD (4.96%), and others [1] - The market distribution of the index holdings shows that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange accounts for 63.13%, Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 19.44%, and Shanghai Stock Exchange for 17.42% [1] Group 3: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index holdings includes Consumer Discretionary (29.50%), Information Technology (25.83%), Communication Services (19.29%), Healthcare (16.01%), Industrials (8.87%), and Materials (0.51%) [2] Group 4: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, typically on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, with a sample adjustment ratio not exceeding 40% [2] - Special adjustments may occur under certain circumstances, such as delisting or significant corporate actions [2] Group 5: Tracking Funds - Public funds tracking the SHS Technology 100 include Huaan CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Technology 100 ETF and Morgan CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Technology 100 ETF [3]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is projected to experience a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 5% in 2024, followed by a slight decline to 4.9% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026 due to tariff impacts and diminishing policy effects[64] - China's economic recovery is characterized by fluctuations, with GDP growth expected to rise from 4.6% in Q3 2024 to 5.4% in Q1 2025, before declining again[64] Stock Market Performance - In the economic contraction phase, stocks generally decline significantly, with essential consumption, energy, utilities, and healthcare sectors outperforming, while real estate and technology sectors lag behind[18] - During the economic recovery phase, stocks in discretionary consumption, real estate, technology, and materials sectors show the highest gains, while utilities and essential consumption sectors underperform[18] Sector Analysis - In the economic expansion phase, technology, finance, and real estate sectors tend to outperform, while utilities, essential consumption, and healthcare sectors underperform[18] - Average annual returns for the consumer discretionary sector during the recovery phase are 40.8%, with a market outperformance rate of 64.5%[15] Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators include consumer confidence, manufacturing orders, and employment rates, which are closely linked to stock market performance[28][29] - The U.S. consumer confidence index has a direct correlation with the S&P 500 index, indicating that increased consumer confidence typically leads to stock market gains[27] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy is influenced by the Taylor rule, which incorporates inflation rates and unemployment levels to determine the federal funds rate[43] - High fiscal deficit rates combined with low household savings rates contribute to high inflation and interest rates in the U.S. economy[46] Currency and International Relations - The U.S. dollar index is expected to fluctuate, potentially dropping below 95, with a slight rebound anticipated towards the end of the year[55] - The relationship between the U.S.-China nominal GDP growth rates and interest rate differentials will influence the USD/CNY exchange rate, with projections suggesting a slight appreciation of the yuan[114] Investment Strategy - The S&P 500 is forecasted to rise by 3% in the second half of the year and 8.5% for the entire year, with a favorable outlook on sectors such as information technology, communication services, finance, healthcare, and essential consumption[50]

Core Viewpoint - The China-Hong Kong and US-listed China-US Technology Index has shown significant growth, with a 5.81% increase over the past month, an 18.50% increase over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 26.68% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The index closed at 5691.57 points, reflecting strong market performance [1] - The index is calculated using an equal-weighted method, focusing on high liquidity and market capitalization companies in the technology sector from China and the US [1] Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten holdings of the index include companies such as 康方生物 (3.18%), Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (2.65%), and NVIDIA Corp (2.3%) [1] - The index's holdings are diversified across various exchanges, with 45.76% from Nasdaq Global Select Market, 31.82% from Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and 19.77% from New York Stock Exchange [2] Group 3: Sector Allocation - The index is heavily weighted towards the information technology sector, which constitutes 44.48% of the holdings, followed by consumer discretionary at 16.48% and communication services at 13.92% [2] - The index undergoes biannual adjustments, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]

Group 1 - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index increased by 3.8% [1] - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index rose by 1.0% [1] - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index saw an increase of 0.8% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index grew by 0.7% [1] - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index increased by 0.4% [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (513040) received net inflows of 150 million and 130 million respectively, reaching historical highs in size [1] - The Hang Seng New Economy Index consists of the 50 largest stocks in the "new economy" sector within the Hong Kong Stock Connect range, primarily including information technology, consumer discretionary, and healthcare [2] - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio for the Hang Seng New Economy Index is 23.7 times, with a valuation percentile of 47.9% since its inception in 2018 [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is composed of the 30 largest stocks related to technology, with over 90% of its composition from information technology and consumer discretionary sectors [2] - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio for the Hang Seng Technology Index is 21.5 times, with a valuation percentile of 20.4% since its launch in 2020 [2] - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index includes 50 liquid and high-value stocks in the healthcare sector, which accounts for over 90% of the index [2] - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio for the Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index is 32.2 times, with a valuation percentile of 49.7% since its inception in 2017 [2] - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index consists of 30 leading internet companies, primarily in information technology and consumer discretionary [2] - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio for the Internet Index is 23.8 times, with a valuation percentile of 19.9% since its launch in 2021 [2]

金融界8月5日消息，上证指数高开高走，上证可选消费行业分层等权重指数 (可选等权，000073)上涨 1.35%，报3209.92点，成交额226.14亿元。 从指数持仓来看，上证可选消费行业分层等权重指数十大权重分别为：科沃斯（3.36%）、沪光股份 （2.82%）、爱柯迪（2.55%）、北汽蓝谷（2.53%）、石头科技（2.46%）、春风动力（2.43%）、上汽 集团（2.41%）、赛轮轮胎（2.38%）、华达科技（2.35%）、玲珑轮胎（2.27%）。 从上证可选消费行业分层等权重指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比100.00%。 从上证可选消费行业分层等权重指数持仓样本的行业来看，可选消费占比100.00%。 数据统计显示，上证可选消费行业分层等权重指数近一个月上涨2.71%，近三个月上涨2.94%，年至今 上涨1.07%。 据了解，上证行业分层等权重指数系列分别选取属于能源、原材料、工业、可选消费、主要消费、医药 卫生、金融、房地产、信息技术、通信服务以及公用事业十一个一级行业的上市公司证券作为指数样 本，并通过权重设置，使二级行业间实现市值加权，二级行业内个券实现等权，为投资者提供多样化的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for downstream consumption and service industries has shown positive performance, with a 2.65% increase over the past month and a 1.18% increase year-to-date, indicating a stable growth trend in the sector [1][2] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for downstream consumption and service industries reported a value of 5772.50 points [1] - The index has increased by 2.65% in the last month, 1.93% in the last three months, and 1.18% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The index is composed of three sub-indices: upstream resource industry, midstream manufacturing industry, and downstream consumption and service industry [1] - The index is based on the China Securities 800 index sample, selecting large-scale companies with relevant industry chain characteristics [1] Group 3: Top Holdings - The top ten holdings in the index include: Kweichow Moutai (10.75%), Midea Group (4.21%), BYD (3.44%), Heng Rui Medicine (3.34%), Wuliangye (2.83%), WuXi AppTec (2.77%), Gree Electric (2.49%), Yili Group (2.1%), Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (1.92%), and Mindray Medical (1.66%) [1] Group 4: Market Distribution - The index holdings are distributed with 54.73% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 45.27% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] Group 5: Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the index includes: major consumption (27.56%), healthcare (23.18%), discretionary consumption (21.03%), industrial (10.08%), communication services (9.53%), and information technology (8.62%) [2] Group 6: Sample Adjustment Rules - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - New securities that meet selection criteria and rank in the top 10 by total market capitalization will be quickly included in the index after their tenth trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform" [1] - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform - Maintained" [5] Core Viewpoints - The US non - farm data is weak, and the expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has increased. The Fed's internal disagreement on interest rate cuts has intensified, and the US economic outlook is not optimistic due to factors such as insufficient domestic demand, low corporate investment willingness, and trade policy uncertainties [1][2] - In the context of increasing divergence in Fed policies, differentiated economic data, and falling interest rates, the short - term risk - aversion sentiment in the US bond market has increased. It is recommended that investors maintain medium - and short - duration US dollar bonds as the core allocation [4] Summary by Directory US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The report presents figures related to 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 year US Treasuries, monthly issuance amounts, and the implied number of interest rate cuts in the federal funds rate futures market [14][22][24] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The US GDP grew by 3% year - on - year in Q2, but there are hidden dangers. Private consumption growth was only 0.98%, corporate investment showed negative growth, net exports were mainly due to reduced imports, government contribution was almost zero, and inflation pressure persisted [2] - The July non - farm employment data was far lower than expected, with new employment dropping to 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the previous values were significantly revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, and the year - on - year hourly wage increase rose to 3.9% [3] Exchange Rates - The report shows figures on the one - year trend of non - US currencies, the two - week changes in non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond spread, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the one - year locked - in exchange cost change of the US dollar against the RMB [60][62][64] Overseas US Dollar Bonds - Figures on the price trends of US dollar bonds, US - EU comprehensive US dollar bonds, global investment - grade US dollar bonds, and the price trends of global high - yield US dollar bonds and Chinese domestic bonds are presented, as well as the two - week return comparison of the global bond market [67][71][73] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - The report shows the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by grade and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds, the two - week returns (by grade and industry), the net financing amount trend, and the maturity scale of each sector [90][84][91] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 8 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 downgrades, 3 rating revocations, and 3 initial ratings [93]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a correction this week, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 3.5%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 3.8%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect China 100 Index falling by 3.3% [1][3]. Fund Flows - Southbound funds were actively increasing their positions, with a total net purchase of nearly 60 billion yuan [1]. Index Performance - The rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the indices are as follows: Hang Seng Index at 11.3 times, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index at 10.2 times, and CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect China 100 Index at 10.7 times [3]. - The rolling P/E ratio percentiles indicate that the Hang Seng Index is at 50.4%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index at 62.3%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect China 100 Index at 87.6% [3]. Sector Composition - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect China 100 Index comprises 100 large-cap and actively traded companies from mainland China, with financials, consumer discretionary, and information technology sectors accounting for over 65% of the index [6]. - The broader index sectors, including consumer discretionary, financials, information technology, and energy, collectively represent over 85% of the index [6]. Historical Performance - Year-to-date performance shows the Hang Seng Index up by 22.2%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 20.8%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect China 100 Index up by 23.7% [7]. - Over the past year, the Hang Seng Index has increased by 44.6%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 47.4%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect China 100 Index by 49.9% [7].

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs in the US are mostly down, with the global airline industry ETF dropping by 3.6%, regional bank ETF down by 3.1%, and internet stock index ETF decreasing by 3% [1] Industry Performance - Global airline industry ETF is priced at $23.08, down by $0.87 (-3.63%) with a trading volume of 353,900 shares and a total market value of $727.02 million, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 8.95% [2] - Regional bank ETF is priced at $58.21, down by $1.85 (-3.08%) with a trading volume of 5.067 million shares and a total market value of $4.858 billion, showing a year-to-date decline of 2.23% [2] - Internet stock index ETF is priced at $265.64, down by $8.19 (-2.99%) with a trading volume of 44,263 shares and a total market value of $176.38 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 9.24% [2] - Semiconductor ETF is priced at $280.47, down by $8.31 (-2.88%) with a trading volume of 1.856 million shares and a total market value of $3.315 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 15.82% [2] - Financial sector ETF is priced at $51.15, down by $1.23 (-2.34%) with a trading volume of 8.5795 million shares and a total market value of $569.27 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 6.57% [2] - Technology sector ETF is priced at $256.72, down by $6.02 (-2.29%) with a trading volume of 1.1326 million shares and a total market value of $816.51 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 10.78% [2] - Energy sector ETF is priced at $86.16, down by $1.05 (-1.21%) with a trading volume of 2.9969 million shares and a total market value of $21.575 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 2.19% [2] - Healthcare sector ETF is priced at $131.01, up by $0.58 (+0.45%) with a trading volume of 3.4519 million shares and a total market value of $25.072 billion, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 3.94% [2] - Consumer discretionary ETF is priced at $215.98, down by $5.45 (-2.46%) with a trading volume of 925,700 shares and a total market value of $27.128 billion, showing a year-to-date decline of 3.26% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the China Securities Hong Kong Technology Index has shown significant growth year-to-date, with a 33.07% increase, despite a slight decline in the latest trading session [1] - The index consists of 50 large-cap technology companies listed in Hong Kong, selected based on their market capitalization, R&D investment, and revenue growth [1] - The top ten holdings of the index include major companies such as Tencent Holdings (10.17%), Alibaba-W (9.81%), and Xiaomi Group-W (9.71%) [1] Group 2 - The index has a sector composition where consumer discretionary accounts for 39.87%, communication services for 26.40%, information technology for 21.52%, and healthcare for 11.75% [1] - The index is adjusted semi-annually, with changes implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Public funds tracking the Hong Kong technology sector include the Southern China Securities Hong Kong Technology ETF and the China Merchants Securities Hong Kong Technology ETF [3]