美股盘初，主要行业ETF多数走低，能源业ETF、可选消费ETF均跌超1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index of Hong Kong and Shenzhen Technology Leaders (SHS Technology Leaders) shows mixed performance in the A-share market, with a slight increase of 0.04% on the latest trading day, reflecting a 6.87% increase over the past month and a 9.58% increase year-to-date [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The SHS Technology Leaders Index closed at 2185.36 points with a trading volume of 76.457 billion yuan [1]. - Over the last three months, the index has decreased by 6.49% [1]. - The index was established on November 14, 2014, with a base point of 1000.0 [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index comprises 50 large-cap technology companies with significant market share and R&D investment [1]. - The top ten holdings in the index include Alibaba-W (12.91%), Tencent Holdings (11.03%), Xiaomi Group-W (10.43%), Meituan-W (6.96%), and SMIC (3.48%) [1]. - The market distribution of the index holdings shows that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange accounts for 54.65%, Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 29.20%, and Shanghai Stock Exchange for 16.15% [1]. Group 3: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index includes Information Technology (45.15%), Consumer Discretionary (19.87%), Healthcare (17.49%), Communication Services (12.98%), and Industrials (4.51%) [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]. - Public funds tracking the SHS Technology Leaders include various funds from Penghua, GF, and Huatai-PineBridge [2].

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 价值稳健领涨风格——W109 市场观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周北向重仓 50 领涨；市场动速方面，风格轮动速度继续高位震荡；行业板块方面，金融板块 领涨行业，可选消费龙头显著超额行业基准；风格方面，价值类风格占优，价值稳健领涨风格； 主题方面，新型烟草、低碳领袖 30 涨幅靠前。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 价值稳健领涨风格——W109 市场观察 [Table_Summary2] 机构赚钱效应：北向重仓 50 领涨 市场动速：风格轮动速度继续高位震荡 行业板块：金融板块领涨行业，可选消费龙头显著超额行业基准 风格跟踪：价值类风格占优，价值稳健领涨风格 主题热点：新型烟草、低碳领袖 30 涨幅靠前 指数名称及代码 价值稳健 861303.CJ 新型烟草 862302.CJ 指数走势 资料来源：Wind，长江证券 ...

Group 1: Industry Performance - The healthcare ETF rose by 2.02%, while the biotechnology index ETF increased by 1.61% [1][3] - The global airline industry ETF saw a gain of 1.07%, and the consumer discretionary ETF rose by 0.95% [1][3] - The technology sector ETF and banking sector ETF had minimal increases, with gains of up to 0.19% [1][3] Group 2: ETF Specifics - The healthcare ETF closed at $133.09, with a change of +2.63 (+2.02%) and a total market value of $254.69 billion, down 2.88% year-to-date [3] - The biotechnology index ETF closed at $121.16, with a change of +1.92 (+1.61%) and a total market value of $96.20 billion, down 8.28% year-to-date [3] - The global airline ETF closed at $22.74, with a change of +0.24 (+1.07%) and a total market value of $716.31 million, down 10.30% year-to-date [3] Group 3: Sector Trends - The energy sector ETF decreased by 0.15%, while the semiconductor ETF fell by 0.29% [2][3] - The utilities sector ETF increased by 1.47%, closing at $82.18, with a total market value of $119.30 billion, up 9.35% year-to-date [3] - The consumer staples ETF rose by 1.15%, closing at $82.07, with a total market value of $138.88 billion, up 4.95% year-to-date [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market opened with mixed performance among major industry ETFs, with healthcare and biotechnology ETFs rising nearly 1%, while energy ETFs fell close to 1% [1] Industry Summary - **Healthcare ETF**: Current price at $131.42, increased by $0.96 (+0.74%), with a trading volume of 1.58 million shares and a total market value of $25.15 billion, down 4.10% year-to-date [2] - **Biotechnology Index ETF**: Current price at $120.06, up by $0.82 (+0.69%), with a trading volume of 99,650 shares and a total market value of $9.53 billion, down 9.11% year-to-date [2] - **Energy ETF**: Current price at $85.01, decreased by $0.60 (-0.70%), with a trading volume of 1.36 million shares and a total market value of $21.29 billion, up 0.02% year-to-date [2] - **Global Airline ETF**: Current price at $22.61, increased by $0.10 (+0.47%), with a trading volume of 121,200 shares and a total market value of $712.06 million, down 10.83% year-to-date [2] - **Technology Sector ETF**: Current price at $234.00, decreased by $0.45 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 604,400 shares and a total market value of $74.43 billion, up 0.81% year-to-date [2] - **Financial Sector ETF**: Current price at $51.30, increased by $0.02 (+0.04%), with a trading volume of 3.65 million shares and a total market value of $57.10 billion, up 6.53% year-to-date [2]

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs showed mixed performance, with semiconductor ETFs rising over 1% and global technology stock index ETFs increasing nearly 1%, while utility and energy ETFs declined by over 1% [1] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor ETF price reached 248.30, with an increase of 2.74 (+1.12%), and a trading volume of 714,800 shares, totaling a market value of 29.35 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 2.53% [2] Technology Sector - Global technology stock index ETF priced at 85.42, up by 0.70 (+0.82%), with a trading volume of 5,259 shares and a market value of 11.96 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 0.79% [2] - Technology sector ETF at 234.27, increased by 1.65 (+0.71%), with a trading volume of 414,300 shares and a market value of 745.11 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 0.93% [2] Utility and Energy Sectors - Utility ETF priced at 78.58, decreased by 1.07 (-1.34%), with a trading volume of 853,600 shares and a market value of 11.41 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 4.56% [2] - Energy sector ETF at 85.12, down by 0.65 (-0.76%), with a trading volume of 1,037,900 shares and a market value of 21.32 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 0.14% [2]

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs showed mixed performance in early trading, with semiconductor and global airline ETFs rising over 1%, while healthcare and biotechnology ETFs fell nearly 2% [1] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor ETF increased by 3.71 to 241.12, representing a gain of 1.56% with a trading volume of 524,400 shares and a total market value of 28.50 billion [2] Airline Industry - Global airline ETF rose by 0.25 to 22.80, reflecting an increase of 1.11% with a trading volume of 166,100 shares and a total market value of 718.20 million [2] Healthcare Sector - Healthcare ETF decreased by 3.11 to 132.85, marking a decline of 2.29% with a trading volume of 1,881,800 shares and a total market value of 254.23 billion [2] Biotechnology Sector - Biotechnology index ETF fell by 2.37 to 119.69, indicating a drop of 1.94% with a trading volume of 80,763 shares and a total market value of 95.03 billion [2] Technology Sector - Technology sector ETF rose by 1.94 to 229.64, showing an increase of 0.85% with a trading volume of 475,800 shares and a total market value of 730.40 billion [2] Consumer Discretionary - Consumer discretionary ETF increased by 1.48 to 213.95, reflecting a gain of 0.70% with a trading volume of 285,600 shares and a total market value of 268.73 billion [2] Financial Sector - Financial sector ETF rose by 0.24 to 51.11, representing an increase of 0.47% with a trading volume of 2,047,300 shares and a total market value of 568.88 billion [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant progress made in the recent China-US Geneva trade talks, which resulted in a substantial reduction or suspension of tariffs imposed after April 2, providing a strong boost to the market [1] - The sectors that are expected to benefit from the tariff reductions include electronics, IT services, software development, and machinery equipment, particularly those with high export dependence [1][2] - The Hong Kong stock market reacted positively to the announcement, with the Hang Seng Technology Index showing significant gains, indicating potential upward momentum for related sectors in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - Short-term beneficiaries of the trade talks are identified as export-oriented companies in sectors such as consumer electronics, components, machinery, and automotive parts, which are likely to show relative performance [2] - The reduction in tariff impacts is expected to improve investor risk appetite, although the short-term performance of dividend stocks may be muted [2] - In the medium term, as tariff shocks diminish, attention should be focused on the recovery of economic conditions, particularly in the AI industry, which is seen as a key growth area [2]

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic conditions in both the US and China, rather than reacting to the fluctuating news about tariffs. Investors should focus on the core economic fundamentals to navigate uncertainties effectively [2][4]. Group 1: US Economic Analysis - The core issue in the US economy is whether excess wealth can absorb the inflation caused by future tariffs. If it can, profits will remain stable; if not, stagflation may occur [6][14]. - The risk premium in the US is at a historical high, which could easily trigger a liquidity crisis if it breaks [14]. - The US faces a significant challenge with a peak in corporate debt, particularly in the junk bond sector, which could be severely impacted by inflation and tariffs [10][11]. Group 2: Chinese Economic Analysis - The key question for China is whether the release of household savings can continue and whether tariffs will disrupt this recovery [15][21]. - Recent monetary policies, such as interest rate cuts, aim to prevent disruptions from tariffs and support economic recovery [19]. - The proportion of precautionary savings among Chinese households has decreased from 26% in 2022 to an expected 19% in 2024, indicating a gradual return to normal spending behavior [19][20]. Group 3: Economic Interaction Models - Three interactive models are proposed to understand the Chinese economy: what economic changes trigger policy responses, what changes yield the best profit visibility for A-shares, and what changes affect consumption upgrades and downgrades [22][30]. - Historical data shows that significant policy changes often occur when uncontrollable economic factors (red line) decline, prompting government intervention [25][26]. Group 4: Tariff Implications - The article discusses the short-term unpredictability of tariffs and emphasizes the importance of understanding the mid-term logic behind them, distinguishing between primary risks (β) and relative risks (α) [38]. - The US's role in global demand is significant, with it accounting for about 16% of total global imports and 1/3 of global final consumer goods imports [38]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The best investment strategy in the current environment is to "respond to uncertainty with certainty," as articulated in the April Politburo meeting [39]. - China's financial market is expected to provide more certainty than the US market in the coming months, with lower volatility anticipated due to clearer challenges and policy responses [40][41]. - The focus should be on high-dividend stocks and technology investments, which are seen as stable opportunities amid the current economic landscape [41].

| 行业类 v | 当前价 ÷ | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 成交量 # | | 总市值 = 年初至今 = | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 区域银行ET ... | 56.16 | ↑ +0.65 (+1.17%) | 78.68万股 | 46.87 亿 | -6.33% | [] ... | | us KRE | | | | | | | | 可选消费ET ... | 201.33 | +2.24 (+1.13%) | 99362服 | 252.88亿 | -10.01% | [] *** | | us XLY | | | | | | | | 能源业ETF - ... | 81.41 | +0.86 (+1.07%) | 77.63万股 | 203.87 亿 | -4.22% | ( ) == | | us XLE | | | | | | | | 银行业ETF - ... | 52.41 | +0.53 (+1.02%) | 33907股 | 40.57 Z | -4.84% | = == | | us KBE | | | | | | | | 全球 ...