据盖世汽车，随"智驾平权趋势发展，激光雷达2025年国内装机量有望冲击250万颗、渗透率达9.0%， 价格也下探至近1450元。展望未来，受益于L2+/L3/L4法规逐步落地，激光雷达渗透率有望持续提升;而 价格端，当前单颗激光雷达价格下行空间有限，叠加高性能、多颗的方案有望成为趋势，车载激光雷达 市场规模有望快速扩容。该行预计2030/2035年全球车载激光雷达市场规模有望达90/148亿美元。 作为全球领先的激光雷达企业，公司中长期的竞争壁垒与投资价值突出 禾赛科技是全球领先的激光雷达研发与制造企业 公司2014年成立，2023年于纳斯达克上市，2025年9月于港交所上市，构建了 AT/ET/FT/Pandar/OT/XT/QT/JT8大产品系列，覆盖ADAS、自动驾驶及机器人市场。2020至2024年，公 司激光雷达交付量从0.4万台快速增长至50.2万台，预计2025年有望交付超150万台。2024年公司首次达 成全年Non-GAAP盈利，也实现了全年经营和净现金流为正。25Q3公司实现净利润2.6亿元、创历史新 高，全年净利润指引上调至3.5-4.5亿元，呈现持续高速增长趋势。 随智驾市场演进，激光 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，禾赛-W(02525)作为全球激光雷达行业龙头，受益于 L2+/L3/L4法规推进，有望持续抢占国内外市场份额，实现规模的快速扩张。同时机器人激光雷达行业 空间广阔，有望成为公司第二增长曲线。该行预计公司2025-27年：1)营业收入30.30、41.77、58.23亿 元，同比+46%、+38%、+39%;2)净利润3.58、4.88、8.87亿元，同比扭亏为盈、+36%、+82%;3)Non- GAAP净利润4.786.02、9.95亿元，同比+33.9倍、+26%、+65%;4)EPS2.29、3.13、5.68元采用PS估值 法，给予公司2026年8倍PS，对应目标市值334亿元、目标空间35%、目标价235.93港元，首次覆盖，给 予"强推"评级。 华创证券主要观点如下： 禾赛科技是全球领先的激光雷达研发与制造企业 公司2014年成立，2023年于纳斯达克上市，2025年9月于港交所上市，构建了 AT/ET/FT/Pandar/OT/XT/QT/JT8大产品系列，覆盖ADAS、自动驾驶及机器人市场。2020至2024年，公 司激光雷达交付量从0.4万台快速增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining reputation of LiDAR sensors in the automotive industry and explores the potential for Western LiDAR companies, particularly Voyant Photonics, to innovate with new technologies like FMCW LiDAR based on silicon photonics [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The investment boom in the LiDAR sector was driven by the autonomous vehicle craze, leading to the rise of SPACs [2]. - Chinese LiDAR suppliers, such as Hesai and RoboSense, have gained significant momentum, capturing 93% of the passenger vehicle market and 89% of the overall LiDAR market [4]. - The attempts of Western companies to penetrate the Chinese market have largely failed, as the market is considered inaccessible [4]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - FMCW LiDAR is viewed as superior to traditional ToF LiDAR due to its ability to directly measure speed, better sunlight interference resistance, and higher distance resolution [10]. - Voyant Photonics aims to leverage silicon photonics technology to create compact and affordable LiDAR sensors for various applications beyond automotive [7][10]. - The company has developed six generations of silicon photonic technology and plans to release its Carbon series FMCW LiDAR products in 2025, which will feature advanced capabilities [12]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - There are 15 to 20 companies developing silicon photonic FMCW LiDAR, with American firms being particularly active [14]. - SiLC Technologies stands out among competitors for its maturity in FMCW development, while Voyant focuses on integrated beam control to eliminate complex mechanical components [15]. - The potential for Voyant to enter the automotive market remains uncertain, with suggestions that it could sell packaged photonic chips to existing LiDAR manufacturers [16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to Hesai Technology (02525.HK) with a target price of HKD 235.93, indicating a potential upside of 35% from the current price of HKD 175.10 [3][9]. Core Insights - Hesai Technology is a leading global developer and manufacturer of LiDAR technology, with a comprehensive product matrix covering ADAS, autonomous driving, and robotics markets. The company has achieved significant milestones, including being the first to deliver over 10,000 units of LiDAR in a month and achieving Non-GAAP profitability in 2024 [6][14]. - The report highlights the expected rapid growth in the LiDAR market, driven by the increasing adoption of L2+/L3/L4 regulations, with projections indicating that the global automotive LiDAR market could reach USD 9 billion by 2030 and USD 14.8 billion by 2035 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hesai Technology was founded in 2014 and has established itself as a leader in the LiDAR industry, focusing on high-performance products. The company has developed eight major product series, including AT, ET, FT, Pandar, OT, XT, QT, and JT, catering to various applications in the automotive and robotics sectors [6][21]. - The company has a strong financial outlook, with projected revenues of CNY 2.08 billion in 2024, growing to CNY 5.82 billion by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.4% [2][9]. LiDAR Industry - The LiDAR market is expected to expand rapidly, with the domestic installation of LiDAR units projected to reach 2.5 million by 2025, achieving a penetration rate of 9.0%. The report notes that the price of LiDAR units is expected to decrease to around CNY 1,450, which will further drive market growth [6][7]. - The report identifies key technological advancements in LiDAR, including the transition to mixed solid-state and full solid-state technologies, which are anticipated to enhance performance and reduce costs [7][8]. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes Hesai's competitive advantages, including strong R&D capabilities, a leading manufacturing system, and a diverse customer base that includes major players in the ADAS and robotics sectors. The company has secured significant contracts with top automotive manufacturers and is recognized as a preferred supplier for leading Robotaxi companies [6][8][9]. - The expected growth in the robotics LiDAR market is highlighted, with projections indicating that the market for robotic LiDAR solutions could grow from USD 600 million in 2024 to USD 5.1 billion by 2029, representing a CAGR of 56% [8][9]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts that Hesai's net profit will turn positive in 2025, reaching CNY 358 million, and is expected to grow to CNY 887 million by 2027. Non-GAAP net profit is projected to increase significantly, from CNY 478 million in 2025 to CNY 995 million in 2027 [2][9]. - The valuation is based on a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 8x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of CNY 33.4 billion [9].

Core Insights - Hesai Technology (NASDAQ: HSAI; HKEX: 2525) announced a strategic partnership with Meituan Drone to integrate its second-generation solid-state LiDAR technology into Meituan's drone logistics, marking a significant advancement in the low-altitude economy [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Meituan Drone is pioneering a new model for low-altitude logistics, creating a three-dimensional delivery network that overcomes traditional ground delivery limitations [3] - The newly launched M-Drone 4L features a solid-state LiDAR system, enabling all-weather precise navigation and positioning, crucial for nighttime logistics operations [5] - Hesai's FTX LiDAR has over twice the resolution of its predecessor and is 66% lighter, reducing integration difficulty and manufacturing costs for drones [13] Group 2: Industry Trends - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, indicating strong growth potential [7] - The integration of LiDAR technology enhances the safety and operational capabilities of drones in complex urban environments, addressing challenges such as obstacles and adverse weather conditions [11] - The low-altitude logistics sector has seen significant advancements, with Meituan Drone operating 65 routes and completing over 740,000 orders across multiple cities, showcasing the potential of low-altitude logistics in instant retail [8]

新京报贝壳财经讯 12月22日，据禾赛科技微信公众号消息，近日，禾赛科技宣布与美团无人机达成战 略合作，禾赛第二代纯固态感知定位激光雷达FTX正式获得美团无人机量产定点。这一合作不仅实现了 激光雷达技术与低空物流场景的深度融合，也标志两家企业联手推动低空经济产业化落地的重要突破。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luminar, once valued at $7.8 billion, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on December 15, 2025, marking a significant decline in the U.S. lidar industry, as it was seen as a leading hope for the sector [1][16][30] Group 1: Company Overview - Luminar was founded in 2012 by Austin Russell with the vision of providing precise environmental perception for vehicles [3][18] - The company became a unicorn in 2017 after raising $36 million in Series B funding, reaching a valuation of over $1 billion [19] - Luminar went public via a SPAC merger in December 2020, raising approximately $600 million and achieving a market cap of $7.8 billion [19][20] Group 2: Business Challenges - Despite initial success, Luminar faced significant challenges, including reliance on a few major clients, particularly Volvo, which led to vulnerability [20][21] - In 2024, Volvo cut its annual order expectations by 75%, exacerbating Luminar's cash flow issues and leading to layoffs and restructuring [5][21] - By the end of 2024, Luminar's cash reserves fell below $100 million, with debts reaching $380 million [5][21] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global lidar market is shifting, with Chinese manufacturers capturing approximately 92% of the market share by 2024, contrasting with the decline of U.S. players [2][11] - Chinese firms like Hesai and RoboSense have adopted a more diversified approach, focusing on various applications beyond passenger vehicles, which has contributed to their growth [26][27] - Luminar's reliance on a high-cost 1550nm lidar technology limited its competitiveness against the more cost-effective 905nm solutions favored by Chinese manufacturers [7][26] Group 4: Technological Debate - The debate over the necessity of lidar in autonomous driving continues, with figures like Elon Musk arguing that lidar is unnecessary and costly [8][23] - In contrast, companies like WeRide advocate for a multi-sensor fusion approach, emphasizing the importance of lidar for safety in complex driving environments [24][25] - The divergence in technology strategies reflects broader commercial model differences, with Tesla targeting mass-market vehicles and WeRide focusing on commercial applications [10][25] Group 5: Future Outlook - Luminar's bankruptcy signifies a pivotal moment in the lidar industry, indicating a potential restructuring of market leadership towards Chinese firms [28][29] - The future of lidar technology may see continued innovation and competition, with potential disruptions from companies like Apple and Google entering the space [29][30] - Despite current advantages, Chinese manufacturers must remain vigilant against technological disruptions and market fluctuations to maintain their lead [30]

Core Viewpoint - The collapse of Luminar, a leading American lidar company, coincides with a legislative push in the U.S. to exclude Chinese sensors from critical infrastructure, highlighting the shift of lidar technology from a commercial competition to a geopolitical battleground [1][3]. Group 1: Legislative Actions and Market Impact - A new bill proposed by U.S. Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi aims to phase out Chinese-made lidar sensors in autonomous vehicles and critical infrastructure under the guise of national security [3][4]. - The bill sets a timeline for banning new purchases within three years and replacing existing equipment within five years, citing concerns over potential cyberattacks during conflicts [4]. - Concurrently, Luminar Technologies filed for bankruptcy, reporting assets between $100 million and $500 million against liabilities of $500 million to $1 billion, marking a significant downturn for a company once partnered with major automakers [7]. Group 2: Luminar's Business Model and Challenges - Luminar's strategy focused on a superior 1550 nm lidar technology, which was initially seen as a path to advanced autonomous driving, leading to a peak market valuation of nearly $10 billion in 2020 [8][11]. - However, the high costs associated with 1550 nm technology, reliant on expensive materials, resulted in unsustainable pricing, with sales failing to cover manufacturing costs [11]. - In contrast, Chinese competitors like Hesai and RoboSense successfully reduced costs to around $200, integrating into major automotive supply chains, which Luminar could not match [11][13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The global lidar market is dominated by Chinese firms, holding 93% of the passenger vehicle lidar market and 89% of the overall lidar market, with the "Big Four" Chinese companies capturing 88% of the market [13][15]. - The rapid decline in lidar costs and improvements in reliability have transformed lidar from a high-tech product to a mass-market component, driven by demand in robotics and industrial automation [16][18]. - The U.S. legislative response reflects a growing anxiety over supply chain security, as evidenced by the inclusion of Hesai in a list of entities linked to the Chinese military [19][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Competitive Strategies - The future of lidar technology will depend on the ability to provide comprehensive perception solutions that integrate hardware and software, rather than just competing on technical specifications [21]. - Companies that can navigate specific application scenarios and build strong ecosystem partnerships will likely establish a competitive edge in the evolving market landscape [21].

以下文章来源于东四十条资本 ，作者张雪 东四十条资本 . 聚焦股权投资行业人物、事件、数据、研究、政策解读，提供专业视角和深度洞见 | 创投圈有趣的灵魂 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 在激光雷达领域，美国已经被判出局。 作者丨张雪 来源丨东四十条资本 " 任何依赖激光雷达的人都注定要失败 " 马斯克曾如此断言。 12 月 15 日，被看做是美国激光雷达最后一根独苗的 Luminar ，在官网宣布了破产重组的消息，根据 Luminar 提交的法庭 文件，其资产估值在 1 亿至 5 亿美元之间，而债务及负债总额则高达 5 亿至 10 亿美元。 受破产消息影响， Luminar 当天股价应声暴跌 60.82% ，降至每股 0.35 美元，市值仅 2744.53 万美元。 从天才少年的创业项目，到百亿美元市值的科技新贵，再到现在戏剧性的关门大吉， Luminar 的故事也成为了美国激光雷达 发展历史的一个缩影。它的倒下也意味着在激光雷达领域，美国已经被判出局，相应的，中国厂商占领了绝大部分的市场份 额。 溃败 2020 年 SPAC 火热时， Luminar 通过这种方式登陆资本市场。上市即巅峰，这句 ...

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：东四十条资本） "任何依赖激光雷达的人都注定要失败"马斯克曾如此断言。 12月15日，被看做是美国激光雷达最后一根独苗的Luminar，在官网宣布了破产重组的消息，根据 Luminar 提交的法庭文件，其资产估值在1亿至5亿美元之间，而债务及负债总额则高达5亿至10亿美 元。 受破产消息影响，Luminar当天股价应声暴跌60.82%，降至每股0.35美元，市值仅2744.53万美元。 从天才少年的创业项目，到百亿美元市值的科技新贵，再到现在戏剧性的关门大吉，Luminar的故事也 成为了美国激光雷达发展历史的一个缩影。它的倒下也意味着在激光雷达领域，美国已经被判出局，相 应的，中国厂商占领了绝大部分的市场份额。 溃败 2020年SPAC火热时，Luminar通过这种方式登陆资本市场。上市即巅峰，这句话用在Luminar再合适不 过了。这里的"巅峰"，不光指股价，还有Luminar的业务。 虽然很多车企跟Luminar签了订单，但在实际交付上却一直面临挑战，这使得Luminar一直深陷亏损的漩 涡，长期低于成本价供货导致"卖得越多亏得越多"，2025年第三季度财报显示其运营利润率低 ...