Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is expected to support the resilience of foreign trade in the second quarter, but the future of economic negotiations remains uncertain due to escalating strategic competition between the two countries [1][12]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Impact - In April, China's exports to the U.S. decreased by 21% year-on-year, while imports fell by 14%, indicating a significant impact from the tariffs, but the overall trade balance was not completely disrupted [2]. - China's overall export growth in April was 8.1%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 2.0%, supported by increased exports to non-U.S. countries, such as a 21% increase to ASEAN [2]. - The industrial added value in April grew by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.5%, driven by resilient foreign trade [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Structural Changes - The high-tech manufacturing and digital product sectors showed strong performance, with year-on-year growth rates of 10% for both categories, indicating a shift towards industrial upgrading [3]. - Investment in high-tech services increased by 11.3% year-on-year from January to April, with information services seeing a remarkable 40.6% growth [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.8% year-on-year from January to April, supported by accelerated fiscal policies [4]. - Local government special bonds issuance reached 1.19 trillion yuan, a 65% increase year-on-year, indicating a proactive approach to funding infrastructure projects [4]. Group 4: Financial Market Resilience - The Chinese financial market demonstrated strong resilience, with the A-share market rebounding by 7.1% from its low in April, and the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating by 1.2% and 2.2% respectively [5][6]. - Despite the pressures from U.S. tariffs, foreign capital continued to show interest in Chinese assets, with net inflows into domestic bonds and stocks [6]. Group 5: Currency and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB appreciated against the USD, but its real effective exchange rate index fell by 2.9% in April, indicating a passive appreciation that does not harm export competitiveness [8]. - The foreign exchange market remained stable, with banks reporting a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales, driven by increased willingness to settle in RMB [7]. Group 6: Consumer and Real Estate Market Trends - Consumer spending showed signs of weakness, with retail sales growth slowing to 5.1% in April, below market expectations, largely due to declining automobile sales [10]. - The real estate market faced challenges, with sales volume and value declining by 2.1% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a weakening demand [11].

5月21日，记者从省统计局获悉，4月份，全省经济延续稳中向好的发展态势，工业保持较快增长，投 资、消费增速有所加快，主要指标增速均高于全国平均水平。 新兴产业快速增长。4月份，全省规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长13.5%；新能源汽车产业、新 一代信息技术产业增加值同比分别增长14.5%、11.5%，分别高于全省规模以上工业增加值增速6.5个、 3.5个百分点。1—4月，全省高技术制造业投资同比增长24.6%，比一季度加快7.9个百分点；全省新型 能源发电量占规模以上工业发电量比重为23.5%，比一季度、2024年全年分别提高1.7个、6.1个百分 点。 总的来看，4月份全省经济运行延续稳中向好的良好态势，展现出高质量发展的蓬勃生机和巨大潜力。 （记者 胡舒彤） 责任编辑： 路娇 1—4月，全省固定资产投资同比增长6.4%，比一季度加快1个百分点，高于全国2.4个百分点；全省亿元 及以上项目完成投资同比增长10.6%，比一季度加快3.0个百分点，拉动全省投资增长6.7个百分点。1— 4月，全省工业投资同比增长26.6%，比一季度加快4.7个百分点，高于全国14.9个百分点，延续了自上 年以来的快速增长态势。 ...

Economic Performance Overview - In the first four months of 2025, Yunnan Province's industrial added value increased by 5% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.2% compared to the first quarter [1] - The mining industry saw a significant growth of 9.9%, while the manufacturing and electricity, heat, gas, and water supply industries grew by 4.6% and 4.4% respectively [1] Traditional and High-end Manufacturing - Traditional industries in Yunnan showed signs of recovery, with the electricity sector's added value growing by 4.7%, and the non-ferrous industry increasing by 15.4% [1] - High-end manufacturing performed well, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 13.2% and 11.4% respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth [1] - The electronics sector's added value rose by 14.5%, while the new energy battery and green aluminum industries saw remarkable growth of 79% and 7.8% respectively [1] Energy Production and Clean Energy - Yunnan is advancing its green energy initiatives, with industrial power generation reaching 123.252 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [1] - Clean energy sources accounted for 80.7% of total power generation, marking a 1.6% increase from the previous year [1] Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Yunnan reached 418.981 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the first quarter [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a slight increase of 0.1%, with the primary industry investment declining by 12.8% and the secondary industry investment growing by 4.2% [2] - The service sector's revenue for the first three months was 90.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [2] Economic Outlook and Policy Measures - Overall, Yunnan's economic indicators showed stable growth, but challenges such as weak expectations and insufficient effective demand remain [2] - The province aims to implement policies to stabilize growth, promote industrial transformation, and enhance investment and consumption to support high-quality development [2]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 5 月 22 日 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 连桐杉 邮箱：liants＠tebon.com.cn 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 生产不弱，需求较稳 ——2025 年 4 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：2025 年 4 月宏观经济稳中向好，主要表现为制造立国推进下，工业 生产增长强劲，制造业投资继续高增，对冲房地产投资下滑的负向拖累；经济进入 "见龙在田"阶段，外部利空或逐步缓解，内部结构上地产的拖累也有望逐步减弱： 1-4 月，制造业投资维持强势表现达到 8.8%，基建投资达到 5.8%，有效对冲了 地产投资-10.3%带来的负向拖累。 以旧换新前置效果渐显，文旅出行支撑社零读数，1-4 月社零累计同比 4.7%。 关税疑云下生产不弱，或源于生产韧性和 T86 模式最后期限内抢 ...

Economic Growth and Stability - China's national economy continues to show stable growth, with multiple indicators signaling positive trends despite a complex international environment [1][7] - In April, the industrial production showed a steady recovery, with the industrial added value for large enterprises increasing by 6.1% year-on-year, marking one of the fastest monthly growth rates since last year [2][3] Industrial Production and New Quality Productivity - The industrial sector is transitioning towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, supported by effective policy measures [2][3] - High-tech industries are experiencing rapid growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.8% and 10.0% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Notable growth in specific sectors includes aerospace equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing, with increases of 21.4% and 21.3% [2] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market is showing stable growth, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 37,174 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [4][5] - The sales of essential and upgraded goods are performing well, with significant growth in categories such as food and sports entertainment products [4] - The "old for new" policy is driving substantial sales increases in home appliances and communication equipment, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.8% and 19.9%, respectively [4] Investment and Trade Performance - Despite external pressures, China's foreign trade remains stable, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% in the first four months of the year [7] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% in the same period, with equipment investment rising by 18.2%, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1% in April, indicating a stable inflation environment [7][8] Economic Resilience and Future Outlook - China's economic foundation is solid, with a robust manufacturing sector and a large consumer market, providing strong resilience against various risks [8] - The government aims to enhance domestic demand and implement policies to support industrial development and innovation [3][5]

Economic Overview - The current economic operation in China faces increased challenges due to uncertainties in international circulation, but favorable conditions for long-term economic improvement remain unchanged [1] - The national economy has shown a good start this year, with April maintaining stable growth, laying a foundation for achieving annual targets [2] Consumer and Investment Trends - Domestic demand plays a significant stabilizing role, with final consumption expenditure contributing over 50% to economic growth in Q1 [2] - The implementation of policies such as the trade-in program for consumer goods has boosted retail markets, particularly in appliances and furniture [2] - Fixed asset investment has increased by 4% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growth close to 9% [2] Industrial Growth and Innovation - The industrial economy has shown positive momentum, with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in the added value of large-scale industries from January to April [2] - High-tech manufacturing sectors have outperformed average industrial growth rates, with significant increases in the production of industrial robots and new energy vehicles [2] Regulatory Environment and Support for Enterprises - New laws and regulations have been implemented to enhance the vitality of various business entities, including the promotion of private economy and fair competition [3] - The government has introduced measures to support industries facing challenges in transformation and export, fostering a more favorable business environment [3] Global Economic Integration - Despite rising protectionism and unilateralism, globalization remains a historical trend, and many multinational companies continue to invest in China, reflecting confidence in the market's potential [3] - China aims to enhance its economic circulation quality and promote efficient connections between domestic and international markets [3] Innovation and Digital Transformation - China is transitioning from being a manufacturing hub to a global innovation center, with multinational companies upgrading their R&D centers in China to focus on digital innovation [4] - The integration of digital technologies with manufacturing and market advantages is being accelerated, promoting opportunities for emerging industries [4] Green Transformation - There is a strong commitment to promoting a comprehensive green transformation in economic and social development, focusing on clean energy utilization and the growth of the renewable energy sector [5]

从政策效果看，"真金白银"精准"落袋"。增值税发票数据显示，今年前4个月，高技术产业销售收入、 全国科技成果转化服务销售收入、数字经济核心产业、全国企业采购数字技术金额同比分别增长 13.9%、33.6%、9.7%、9.4%。一连串数据，折射出新质生产力加快发展的势头。 制造业创新发展成色更足。数据显示，前4个月，制造业企业销售收入同比增长4.7%，其中，装备制造 业、数字产品制造业、高技术制造业销售收入同比分别增长9.4%、12.6%和12.2%，显示制造业稳步增 长、创新发展成色更足，为持续巩固经济向好势头夯实基础。 为确保政策红利直达快享，国家税务总局明确，将持续依托税收大数据深化拓展"政策找人"，实现政策 精准推送，同时严厉打击骗享税费优惠的违法行为，坚决不让政策"红包"落入不法分子"腰包"。 往后看，为助力新质生产力加速培育、制造业高质量发展，还需进一步发挥政策协同作用。在这方面有 关部门已展开相关部署，例如，日前七部门印发的《加快构建科技金融体制有力支撑高水平科技自立自 强的若干政策举措》提出，用好用足贷款贴息、风险补偿等财政工具支持企业科技创新，落实好天使投 资、创业投资相关税收政策等。 可以预 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing sector in China showed significant growth in April, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% in the value added of large-scale equipment manufacturing, contributing 55.9% to the overall industrial production growth [3] - High-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing also experienced a year-on-year increase of 10%, driven by strong demand for servers and industrial robots, with server production nearly doubling and industrial robot production increasing by 51.5% [3] - The government plans to continue implementing policies to enhance the quality and scope of new industries, accelerate the "AI+" initiative, and expand effective investment to promote sustained growth in the industrial economy [3] Group 2 - China and the ten ASEAN countries have completed negotiations for the upgraded version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, which includes nine new chapters focusing on digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity [5] - The 3.0 version aims to deepen regional economic integration and enhance the integration of production and supply chains, providing greater certainty for regional and global trade amid significant economic challenges [5] - Both parties will actively promote domestic approval processes to facilitate the formal signing of the upgraded agreement by the end of the year [5] Group 3 - The Fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo is scheduled to be held from June 12 to 15 in Changsha, Hunan, with participation from over 12,000 individuals from 44 African countries and six international organizations [6][7] - The expo will feature various sectors including mining technology, clean energy, and modern agricultural machinery, along with special exhibitions showcasing well-known brands and products from Africa [7] - The Chinese government will support all least developed countries that have diplomatic relations with China by offering zero tariffs on 100% of product categories, allowing them to benefit from the Chinese market [7]

央广网昆明5月21日消息（记者 魏文青）21日，云南省统计局、国家统计局云南调查总队发布2025年1 至4月云南省经济运行情况。数据显示，今年以来，云南全省主要经济指标运行平稳，结构持续优化， 新动能不断增强，经济呈现持续回升向好的态势。 记者从云南省统计局了解到，总体来看，1至4月份，云南省主要经济指标运行平稳，工业、服务业、消 费、能源等重点领域支撑有力。下一步，云南将深入落实稳增长政策措施，着力推进产业转型升级，加 快项目建设和投资落地，积极促进消费扩容提质，切实稳就业、稳预期、稳企业、稳市场，推动经济高 质量发展不断取得新进展。 高端制造动能增强。装备制造业、高技术制造业增加值同比分别增长13.2%、11.4%，分别快于全部规 上工业增加值8.2、6.4个百分点。电子行业增加值增长14.5%。其中，新能源电池产业、绿色铝产业分 别增长79%、7.8%。 绿色能源发展基础持续夯实。1至4月份，全省规模以上工业发电量1232.52亿千瓦时，同比增长9.9%， 比一季度加快0.4个百分点。清洁电力（水力、风力、光伏）比重达80.7%，较上年同期提高1.6个百分 点。 消费市场整体保持稳定。1至4月份，云南省 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation of the province is stable and improving, with a solid foundation for stability and continuous expansion of new growth spaces, indicating a trend towards high-quality development [2] - From January to April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 8.1% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] Industrial Performance - In April, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from March [2] - Among the 40 major industrial categories, 36 achieved year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth rate of 90% [2] - Advanced manufacturing sectors showed strong performance, with equipment manufacturing growing by 10.9%, high-tech manufacturing by 12.9%, and core digital product manufacturing by 11.4%, all exceeding the overall industrial growth rate [2] Consumer Market - The province's consumer market remained stable, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 15,991.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% from January to April [3] - The growth of green and smart consumption is a highlight, with retail sales of new energy vehicles and energy-efficient appliances increasing by 59.7% and 60.5% respectively in April [3] - Online retail sales from January to April grew by 28.3%, contributing 5.8 percentage points to the total retail sales, with online sales accounting for 24.3% of total retail sales [3] Investment Trends - The province is focusing on key areas and weak links to actively expand effective investment, with infrastructure investment growing by 10.9% year-on-year from January to April, an increase of 2.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [4][5] - Investments in infrastructure projects of 500 million yuan and above grew by 8.7% and 9.7% respectively [5]