全球市场周一开盘陷入了寂静，A股、美元、黄金几乎都没怎么波动。这有点出入预料——既没有因为 降息预期升温而上涨，也没有因为上周五的大跌而恐慌。 · 一方面，下次发布非农数据市场还会不会相信？如果不信任，那么波动将加剧。特朗普解雇了劳工统 计局局长，并称数据受到操纵。 · 另一方面，市场上很多人还没意识到"二次伤害"正在逼近。9月美国劳工部还要发布2025年3月的"基准 修正"初步估计。根据高盛的预测，可能会再砍掉 55-95万人。换句话说，接下来可能还要再平均"月 减"4.5万到8万人。如果属实，将是2010年以来最大的一次下修。这不仅是修正过去，也是重新定义当 前的"真实就业水平"。 安静背后，并非是因为缺少催化剂，而是"怀疑气氛持续加重"。 第一，初步答案将交给今晚，届时看美股的表现，如果其能够止跌，那么市场将迅速忘记当前的痛苦。 第二，美元的走势也是备受关注的，如果其能够收涨，证明非农数据不过是"一日行情"——焦点将迅速 转向下周的通胀数据，以及下个月的非农数据。 第三，上周五的非农就业报告发布，可能令就业数据上升到了与通胀数据同样重要的程度。不过，现实 的一个问题是——美国就业数据失去了信任——4月和 ...

Core Insights - Since 2025, the global trade landscape has undergone profound changes, with tariff wars and geopolitical factors significantly impacting Chinese companies' "going out" strategy [1] - Despite numerous challenges, opportunities remain in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) projects that exhibit industrial synergy, technological complementarity, and market expansion potential [1] - The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) has initiated a series of offline seminars to discuss and exchange views on these topics with experts from various fields [1] Event Information - The event will take place on August 5, 2025, from 14:30 to 17:30 at Hellas House, Shanghai [3] - The agenda includes multiple theme presentations, such as a review of the Chinese M&A market in the first half of the year and discussions on risks and challenges in overseas markets like Indonesia [2][4] Speakers - Xiang Chen, Co-Head of International Business and Executive General Manager at Huatai United Securities, has nearly 15 years of experience in overseas investment and cross-border M&A [5] - Luo Xingguo, Professor and Vice Chair of the Finance Department at Zhejiang University, specializes in derivatives, green finance, and credit risk [6] - Huang Xuchun, Partner at Global Law Firm, has extensive experience in M&A and cross-border licensing transactions, particularly in the life sciences and healthcare sectors [7] - Feng Kai, Senior Investment Banking Data Manager at LSEG, has 16 years of experience in transaction data and is responsible for M&A data in mainland China and Taiwan [8] - Ling Yufeng, Senior Client Learning Manager at LSEG, has nearly 20 years of experience providing financial information solutions to various clients [9]

智通财经8月4日电，高盛分析师Aurelia Waltham预计，三季度余下时间里铁矿石交易价格将在每吨95美 元至100美元之间。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its oil price forecast, predicting an average of $64 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, but noted increasing risks to its baseline estimates due to recent developments [1] - The bank highlighted downward risks to its forecast of 800,000 barrels per day demand growth for 2025-2026, citing rising U.S. tariff rates, additional secondary tariff threats, and weak U.S. economic activity data [3] - Goldman Sachs' economists indicated that the weak data suggests the U.S. economy is currently growing below potential, increasing the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months [3] Group 2 - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking the latest move in a series of accelerated production increases to regain market share [3] - Goldman Sachs assumes that OPEC+ will maintain its production quotas unchanged after September, anticipating a faster pace of OECD commercial inventory builds and a decline in seasonal demand support [3]

Core Insights - The actual tariff rate for U.S. imports in May was 8.3%, significantly lower than Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast of 10% to 15% [1] - It is anticipated that the tariff rates will trend towards the forecasted levels in June and July, with implications for inflation [1] - Key factors contributing to the lower-than-expected actual tariff rate include transportation delays, higher-than-expected import volumes from Mexico and Canada under the USMCA, and a significant decline in imports from emerging markets [1] Economic Impact - The expected increase in effective tariff rates in June and July is likely to have a more pronounced effect on U.S. inflation [1] - Historically, the actual impact of tariffs on consumer prices typically manifests 3 to 5 months after implementation, while the economic growth repercussions are observed within 3 months [1] - Morgan Stanley projects that tariffs could lead to a price increase of approximately 1 percentage point in the coming months, which may gradually dissipate as demand weakens [1]

格隆汇8月4日｜高盛周日重申了其对布伦特原油价格的预测，预计2025年第四季度平均每桶64美元， 2026年平均每桶56美元，但预计近期事态发展将使其基线预测的风险范围越来越大。该投行称："俄罗 斯和伊朗受到制裁的石油供应压力加大，对我们的价格预测构成上行风险，特别是考虑到闲置产能的正 常化速度快于预期。"然而，高盛指出，由于美国关税税率上调、额外二级关税的威胁以及美国经济活 动数据疲弱，其2025-2026年日均需求增长预估存在下行风险。高盛还表示："虽然欧佩克+的政策仍然 灵活，但我们认为该组织将在9月后保持其生产配额不变，因为我们预计经合组织商业库存的增加速度 将加快，季节性需求的顺风将消退。" （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

说港股是因为，过去很长时间，港股都是带领A股向上走，几乎每次行情都是港股先行，A股尾随在其后，如果说港股真的趋势出现向下逆转，那对A股也 必然产生不利的影响，这是一个风险点。 一、证监会传来两条消息，我没有一个明确的点位，但是从心理预期上而言，我觉得最起码应该到4000点之上吧，说这话不是我凭空猜想，因为目前无论对 国家经济还是个人，太需要一波力度较大的行情了。 大家都希望在当前这种赚钱难的情况下，通过金融市场获得一次财富增长的机会，如果这波行情上去了，会解决很多当下的困境，从这个角度而言，最近证 监会也都明确了要巩固资本市场向好的势头，引导好的预期，从政策层面看，上面是有决心让这波多头趋势延续。 二、看了一下港股，恒生指数最近三个交易日的下跌，将此前的下跌形态有点破坏的意思。 因为已经跌破了20日线，下周就要考验60日线了，倘若恒生指数60日线跌破回不去的话，预示着麻烦就来了，也预示港股趋势向下逆转的可能性。#夏季图 文激励计划# 四、创业板指探底回升跌0.24%，医药板块表现强势，明天的A股涨跌直接定调！ 今年的行情有个特点，市场从周期上看肯定是牛市，每天一万多亿的成交量，就很说明问题了。但这个牛市吧，基 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the US-China Business Council focused on US-China economic relations, macroeconomic policies, and financial market openness [1] - The PBOC emphasized the importance of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation between China and the US, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping [1] - The PBOC is committed to high-level financial openness and continuously optimizing the investment environment for foreign enterprises [1] Group 2 - The US-China Business Council expressed strong confidence in China's reform and opening-up measures and is dedicated to long-term investment in China [1] - The council aims to play a positive role in promoting win-win economic cooperation between China and the US [1] - Representatives from major firms like Goldman Sachs and PwC participated in the discussions, indicating strong interest from foreign companies in the Chinese market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to maintain production quotas unchanged after September, following a significant increase in oil production of 547,000 barrels per day agreed upon for September [1] Group 1: Oil Production and Demand - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that crude oil inventories in OECD countries may accelerate in their rise, while seasonal demand support is gradually weakening [1] - OPEC+ is currently "flexible" and may adjust production levels based on future developments [1] Group 2: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs maintains its oil price forecast, expecting Brent crude to average $64 per barrel in Q4 of this year, with a decline to $56 per barrel by 2026 [1] - The price forecast faces dual risks: potential upward pressure from sanctions on Russian and Iranian supplies, and downward risks from U.S. tariff policies, secondary sanctions threats, and weak economic data [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - Brent crude futures fell by 0.6% in early Asian trading on Monday, trading at $69.29 per barrel [1]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports a significant downward revision of 258,000 jobs, the largest since 1979, which is 4-5 times the normal adjustment range [1][2][5] - The analysis indicates that current employment data holds more predictive power regarding economic trends than historical revisions, maintaining the expectation of no interest rate cuts until 2025 [1][9] Employment Data Revision - The July employment report revealed unexpected large downward revisions for the previous two months: June's non-farm employment was revised from 147,000 to only 14,000, a reduction of 133,000; May's data was adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000, a drop of 125,000, totaling a net revision of 258,000 [2][3] - Historically, from March 1979 to July 2025, the average net revision has been an upward adjustment of 1,200 jobs, making this downward revision the largest in 46 years when excluding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [3] Statistical Analysis - The average absolute value of historical revisions is 56,000 jobs, with a standard deviation of 61,000; thus, the 258,000 job revision is statistically significant and considered an outlier [5] - Using a Probit regression model, Morgan Stanley found that while the large downward revision correlates with an increased recession probability, the effect is limited, raising the likelihood of recession by only 9 percentage points [9] Current Employment Signals - The July report showed an addition of 73,000 jobs, which is deemed more critical than the previous downward revisions; the current employment data is viewed as a stronger indicator of economic health [9] - Other indicators from the July report, such as moderate wage growth, slight increases in hours worked, and low unemployment rates, suggest that these current signals are more relevant than the historical downward adjustments [9] - Despite acknowledging that the downward revisions indicate a faster-than-expected slowdown in labor demand, Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast of no interest rate cuts through 2025, suggesting that recession risks remain elevated but not at a level that would alter the overall economic outlook [9]