General Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 8, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The demand for pigs is in the off - season. The previous continuous pressure on pigs and reduced sales by enterprises continue to support the rebound of futures and spot prices. However, as the group's sales volume gradually recovers, the price is回调. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase. Around the middle and late July, group - owned breeding enterprises may increase the volume of sales to meet the monthly sales target, and pig prices may be under pressure due to the off - season of consumption [9] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 7th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and then fell in a volatile manner, closing with a negative line. The highest was 14,310 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,324 lots to 161,386 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 7th, the average price of三元 outside the country was 14.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Market Analysis**: On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remains low, the utilization rate of pigsty is relatively high, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening to replenish stocks is low, and only a small amount enters the market. With the rise in temperature, terminal demand weakens, slaughter enterprise orders are average, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughter enterprises remain low. On the supply side, the planned sales volume of sample enterprises in July decreased by 1.19% month - on - month compared with June, and the sales volume may be slightly reduced. The sales volume of groups is gradually recovering, and the average weight of pigs for sale is slightly decreasing, but there are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [9] 2. Industry News - As of the week ending July 3, the profit per head from self - breeding and self - fattening was 171.09 yuan, an increase of 54.48 yuan per head compared with the previous week. The profit per head from purchasing piglets for fattening was 14.15 yuan, an increase of 16.71 yuan per head compared with the previous week [10][12] 3. Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market in the week ending July 3 was 530 yuan/head, remaining the same as the previous week [21] - In the week ending July 3, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.5608 million heads, a decrease of 125,900 heads compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.46%. The average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 139,029 heads, a decrease of 5,040 heads compared with the previous week, with an average daily decrease of 3.50%. The slaughter volume on Thursday of this week was 134,338 heads, a decrease of 7,789 heads compared with Thursday of the previous week, a decrease of 5.48% [21] - As of the week ending July 3, the average weight of pigs for sale nationwide was 128.64 kg, an increase of 0.50 kg compared with the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, and an increase of 2.93 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.33% [21]

Sales Performance Summary - In June 2025, the company sold a total of 2.194 million heads of commodity pigs, with a sales revenue of 12.799 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.65% in sales revenue [1] - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 14.08 yuan per kilogram, showing a year-on-year decrease of 20.59% [1] - The increase in sales volume is attributed to the company's production planning and improved operational efficiency [1] Sales Data Breakdown - The sales data for June includes 112,000 breeding pigs and 225,000 commodity pigs sold [2] - The reported sales figures are preliminary and may differ from those in periodic reports due to rounding [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company disclosed its main operational data for the pig farming business as of June 2025, highlighting sales figures and revenue trends in the context of its overall operations [1]. Group 1: Sales Data - In June 2025, the company sold 21.90 million live pigs, totaling 153.95 million for the year, reflecting a decrease of 7.52% compared to the previous month [2]. - The sales revenue from live pig sales in June was 3.85 billion yuan, with a total of 40.93 billion yuan for the year [2]. - The company sold 0.59 million piglets in June, generating a revenue of 25.04 billion yuan, with 20.22 million pigs sold to internal slaughtering enterprises [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The average selling price of live pigs in June was not explicitly stated, but the sales data indicates a slight decline of 0.55% in sales to internal slaughtering enterprises compared to May 2025 [2]. - The cumulative sales revenue and volume suggest a need for monitoring market price fluctuations, which can significantly impact the company's performance [3]. Group 3: Operational Context - The disclosed sales data is part of the company's broader operations, which include feed processing, pig farming, slaughtering, and meat processing, although the current figures focus solely on live pig sales [3]. - The company emphasizes that the data is unaudited and may differ from periodic reports, serving as a reference for investors [2].

Core Viewpoint - Recent market focus on supply-side reform highlights the need to address "involution" in key industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce platforms, with various sectors facing fundamental pressures [2][10] Industry Analysis 1. Policy Direction - "Involution" competition includes low-price competition, homogenization, and excessive marketing from enterprises, as well as unfair local government policies and market barriers [4] - Key industries targeted for "anti-involution" measures include photovoltaics, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce platforms [4][10] - Measures to combat "involution" involve coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides, government behavior regulation, and industry self-discipline [4] 2. Current Industry Status - **Photovoltaics**: Prices are weak, with a June index showing a year-on-year decline of 11.8%. However, production remains strong, with a 18.3% increase in solar cell output from January to May [5][13] - **Automobiles**: Increased low-price competition is evident, with sales discount rates rising to 25.2% in June. This trend may lead to intensified price wars among manufacturers [5][18] - **Steel**: Production decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to May, while prices remain weak, with a 13.4% decline in steel prices from January to June [5][23] - **Cement**: Production fell by 4% year-on-year, and prices have weakened, with a June index showing a 2.4% decline [5][26] - **Pork**: Production is strong but prices are weak, with net profits per pig dropping significantly, indicating the industry is nearing losses [5][29] 3. Anti-Involution Measures - **Photovoltaics**: Industry self-discipline is emphasized, with major manufacturers collectively reducing production by 30% and signing self-regulatory agreements [8][14] - **Automobiles**: Self-regulation is key, with companies like BYD halting aggressive pricing strategies and standardizing supplier payment terms [8][18] - **Steel**: A combination of self-discipline and administrative guidance is being implemented, with industry associations urging companies to manage production and cash flow effectively [8][24] - **Cement**: Measures include industry self-discipline and media supervision to ensure compliance with production standards and to recognize compliant companies [8][27] - **Pork**: Administrative guidance is being utilized, with reports of government requests for major producers to control breeding and market supply [8][30]

Core Insights - Multiple listed pig companies released their sales reports for June, indicating a general decline in sales prices and varying performance in sales volume and revenue among different companies [1][3][4] Group 1: Sales Performance - Muyuan Foods reported sales of 7.019 million pigs in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58.35%, with a sales revenue of 12.799 billion yuan, up 27.65% year-on-year [3] - Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3.0073 million pigs in June 2025, with a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, showing a decline in sales volume and average price compared to May [3][4] - Shennong Group's sales volume decreased to 219,000 pigs in June 2025, with a revenue of 385 million yuan, reflecting a drop in both sales volume and price [4] Group 2: Price Trends - The average selling price of Muyuan Foods' pigs was 14.08 yuan/kg in June 2025, down 20.59% year-on-year [3] - Wens Foodstuff Group's average price for pigs was 14.39 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.40% [3] - Shennong Group's average price for pigs was 14.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.55% from May [4] Group 3: Cost Control and Efficiency - Many pig companies have managed to control breeding costs effectively, enhancing operational efficiency despite the overall low price trend [5][6][7] - New Hope reported a recent cost of 13 yuan/kg for fattened pigs, while Tianbang Bio aims to reduce costs to below 12.8 yuan/kg by the end of 2025 [7][8] - Muyuan Foods highlighted its cost advantage in piglet sales, contributing positively to its profitability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The sales reports for June from multiple listed pig companies indicate a general decline in both sales prices and volumes, with notable variations among different companies [3][5][6]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Leading pig company Muyuan Foods reported sales of 7.019 million pigs in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58.35%, with a sales revenue of 12.799 billion yuan, up 27.65% year-on-year [5]. - Another major player, Wens Foodstuff Group, sold 3.0073 million pigs in June 2025, with a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year price decline of 20.50% [6][7]. - Shennong Group reported a sales volume of 219,000 pigs in June 2025, with a revenue of 385 million yuan, reflecting a decrease in both sales volume and price compared to May [8]. - Dabeinong's sales figures for June 2025 showed a total of 666,100 pigs sold, generating a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan, with a decline in sales price [9]. Group 2: Cost Control and Efficiency - Despite the overall low prices in the pig market, many companies have managed to maintain effective cost control through refined management practices [11][12]. - New Hope reported that its recent operating cost for fattened pigs is around 13 yuan per kilogram [13]. - Tianbang Biological aims to reduce its breeding costs to below 12.8 yuan per kilogram by the end of 2025, with a target of 6.5 to 7 million pigs for the year [14]. - Haida Group has made significant progress in reducing overall breeding costs due to its established breeding model and advantages in feed research and development [15]. - Muyuan Foods claims to have a cost advantage in piglet sales, contributing positively to its profitability [16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has retreated from its high, with the latest price at 14.94 CNY/kg and the average weight at 128.64 kg. The complete cost for leading enterprises has decreased to around 12 CNY/kg, indicating a potential for profit maintenance and valuation recovery [6][17][18] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [18] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, highlighting DeKang Agriculture and Livestock as a representative, along with leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [18] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.94 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in average weight to 128.64 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets remains stable at around 530 CNY/head. The industry is experiencing a short-term rebound in prices after a slight decline [6][17] - The official number of breeding sows in May was 40.42 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%, indicating a stable production capacity [7][17] - The report suggests that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices is strong, and capacity regulation may continue to increase [7][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent stock chicks remains high, with the latest price at 47.93 CNY, a week-on-week increase of 5.25%. The price of broilers is 2.95 CNY/kg, down 12% week-on-week and 18% year-on-year [19] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [19] - The report highlights two main lines of focus: quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group, noting a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to recover in 2025 [20][22] - The report indicates that the domestic capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - The report discusses the impact of potential tariffs on the pet industry, suggesting that the actual impact will be limited due to high profit margins and overseas factory layouts [23] - Companies with strong performance in their own brands, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, are highlighted as key focuses [23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight reduction in soybean planting area for 2025, with a forecast of 83.4 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [24] - The report emphasizes that agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, and a reduction in imports may help prices rise from low levels [24] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3982 points, up 1.54% from the previous week. The Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2729 points, up 2.55% [25][28] - The report notes that the aquaculture sector performed the best with a 5.13% increase [25]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20%, making it one of the best performers globally [1] - The "Hong Kong Three Sisters"—Lao Pu Gold, Pop Mart, and Mixue Group—have gained significant attention, with Lao Pu Gold surging by 330%, Pop Mart by 200%, and Mixue Group by 96% [2][4] - A lesser-known player, Dekang Agriculture (02419), has also performed well, with its stock price increasing by 192% this year, peaking at a 247% rise [3] Group 2 - Dekang Agriculture's growth is driven by its low valuation and strong growth potential, primarily in pig farming, which constitutes about 80% of its business [5] - The company is projected to have a stable growth rate, with a 24% year-on-year increase in pig output expected in 2024, and ambitious targets of 31% and 30% growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] - In comparison, major competitors like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs are expected to have lower growth rates of 26% and 13%, respectively [6] Group 3 - Dekang Agriculture's cost structure is competitive, with a complete breeding cost of approximately 12.4 yuan/kg, placing it among the industry's top tier [8] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is projected to be around 62.76% by the end of 2024, which is in line with the industry average, indicating manageable financial pressure [10] - The valuation method for pig farming companies is based on head average market value during the bottom of the pig cycle, with Dekang's head average market value at 2560 yuan, which is relatively low compared to peers [12] Group 4 - The current pig cycle is characterized by overproduction, with the national breeding sow inventory exceeding the target, leading to a downward pressure on pig prices [13] - The industry has seen improvements in breeding efficiency, with the average number of piglets weaned per sow increasing significantly, contributing to higher supply levels [13][14] - Despite the challenges, there is potential for policy interventions to stabilize the market, which could lead to temporary boosts in stock performance for companies like Dekang Agriculture [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a fluctuating trend in global pork production from 2020 to 2025, with specific projections for China, the EU, the US, and Brazil [1][2][3] - In 2024, China's pork production is projected to be 56.75 million tons, with a slight decrease to 55.50 million tons in 2025 due to regulatory measures on excess pig production capacity [1] - The EU's pork production is expected to decline from 21.25 million tons in 2024 to 20.90 million tons in 2025, primarily due to reduced export demand [1] - The US and Brazil are anticipated to see increases in pork production, reaching 12.94 million tons and 4.55 million tons respectively by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The global pig inventory is projected to be approximately 759 million heads by the end of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 2.42% [2] - China, the EU (27 countries), and the US account for 57.19%, 17.50%, and 9.94% of the global pig inventory respectively [2] - In 2024, China's pig inventory is estimated to be around 42.743 million heads, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.6% [3] Group 3 - The market size of China's pig farming industry is expected to reach approximately 1.44 trillion yuan in 2024, influenced by rising pig prices [5] - The market size is calculated based on the number of pigs slaughtered, average weight at slaughter, and average price of pigs, with the average weight assumed to be 120 kg per head [5] - In 2020, the market size peaked at 2.16 trillion yuan due to significant price increases [5]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 各行业如何"反内卷"？ ❖ 核心观点 近期市场对供给侧改革的关注升温，参照综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方 表态，反内卷的重点行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。结合 数据可得性与行业进展，我们重点关注 5 个产业，近期其基本面均面临一定压 力，例如光伏价格偏弱但生产端持续偏强、汽车销售折扣率再度提升、钢铁水 泥价格仍然偏弱、生猪行业临近亏损等。从其反内卷措施来看，以行业自律、 行政指导、舆论监督为主，按照约束力排序，或是钢铁>生猪>汽车>水泥>光 伏，关注后续落地进展。 ❖ 一、政策如何定调？ 什么是"内卷式"竞争？参考求是中的界定，既包括企业端的低价竞争、同质 化竞争、与过度宣传营销，也包括政府端的"制造…不公平非普惠的优惠政策"、 "不顾地方产业基础和资源禀赋情况，盲目上马新兴产业、重点产业"、"保护 本地市场、扶持本地企业，设置或明或暗的市场壁垒"。 主要涉及哪些行业？综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方表态，反内卷的重点 行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。 如何"反内卷"？参照求是《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》的阐述， 反内卷需 ...