Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that the decline in lithium prices has negatively impacted the performance of Yongxing Materials, but the company has demonstrated excellent cost control measures to mitigate some of the adverse effects [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yongxing Materials reported a revenue of 3.693 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.78%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 401 million yuan, down 47.84% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 326 million yuan, a decrease of 45.96% year-on-year [2]. - For Q2 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 1.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 209 million yuan, down 30.26% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.39% [2]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in Jiangxi for the first half of 2025 was 70,600 yuan per ton (including tax), a 32% year-on-year drop. In Q2, the average price was 65,000 yuan per ton (including tax), a 14% decrease from Q1 and a 39% decline year-on-year [2]. Cost Control - The company has shifted its sales model from primarily spot sales to a combination of spot and futures sales, which has helped reduce the impact of price fluctuations on profitability. In the first half of 2025, the sales volume of lithium carbonate was 12,050 tons, with a calculated unit cost of 41,200 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19% [3]. - The company's ability to control costs effectively has been significant, with a unit gross profit of 20,300 yuan per ton, down 37% year-on-year [3]. Investment Outlook - Yongxing Materials is recognized as a leading player in the domestic lithium mica market, with significant cost advantages. The company is expected to maintain its market share during the industry downturn and is actively pursuing integrated expansion in mining and metallurgy to enhance resource security [3]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 872 million yuan, 1.197 billion yuan, and 1.491 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 1.62 yuan, 2.22 yuan, and 2.77 yuan, leading to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22x, 16x, and 13x [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 cost reduction efforts have shown significant results, and there is considerable price elasticity expected in the second half of the year [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 3.69 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 400 million yuan, down 47.8% year-on-year [8] - The lithium carbonate sales volume in H1 2025 was 12,000 tons, with expectations of reaching 25,000 to 26,000 tons for the entire year [8] - The company is expected to maintain a low cost level in the second half of the year, with lithium prices projected to fluctuate around 80,000 yuan per ton, potentially contributing 300 million yuan in profit [8] - The company’s investment income significantly increased, with a 143% year-on-year growth in H1 2025 [8] - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 900 million yuan, 1.11 billion yuan, and 1.67 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2023 is 12.19 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 21.76% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is projected at 3.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 46.09% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 6.32 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 5.54 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 15.25 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt ratio of 9.84% [6][9]

证券研究报告 永兴材料 (002756 CH) 锂价下跌对公司上半年业绩形成拖累 2025 年 8 月 22 日│中国内地 特钢 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 22 日│中国内地 | 特钢 | 目标价(人民币): | 38.39 | 李斌 研究员 | SAC No. S0570517050001 | libin@htsc.com | | --- | --- | | SFC No. BPN269 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | 张智杰* | 联系人 | | SAC No. S0570124050019 | zhangzhijie@htsc.com | 基本数据 | 目标价 (人民币) | 38.39 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 8 月 21 日) | 34.98 | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 18,858 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 322.43 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on lithium carbonate futures dated August 22, 2025, written by researchers Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin from the Nonferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures [2][3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Lithium carbonate futures stopped falling, and the market selling sentiment eased. The logic of production cuts at the lithium resource end still exists, and the futures once turned positive. The spot price of electric carbon dropped by 500 to 85,200, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing resistance to decline [9] - Australian ore remained flat at 960, lithium mica ore dropped by 15 to 2,110, the price of 5-series power ternary materials remained flat, and lithium iron phosphate dropped by 125. The short - term price decline led to price cuts in both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain [9] - The production profit of salt plants purchasing lithium spodumene narrowed to 3,613, and the production loss of salt plants purchasing lithium mica widened to 2,995. This week's weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons compared with last week, and social inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. Production is still at a relatively high level, and it is judged that the inflection point of social inventory has appeared [9] - With the spot at a premium and the market's enthusiasm for speculating on ore - end production cuts remaining high before the end of September, it is expected that the downward space for lithium carbonate prices is limited [9] Group 3: Industry News - The Ningxia - Hunan ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project was put into operation on August 20. It is China's first approved UHV transmission channel mainly for transmitting new energy from large - scale wind and photovoltaic bases in the "Sahara - Gobi - Desert" area. The project has a supporting power generation capacity of 17.64 million kilowatts, including 13 million kilowatts of new energy (4 million kilowatts of wind power and 9 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power) [12] - Premier African Minerals announced that its Zulu lithium project has made a major breakthrough, transitioning from the commissioning phase to the refining optimization phase. The project has successfully produced salable spodumene concentrate with a lithium oxide grade of over 5% (up to 6.2%) and achieved full - process automated continuous production [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Tibet Mining (000762) reported a significant decline in financial performance for the first half of 2025, with total revenue dropping by 65.91% year-on-year and a net loss of 15.305 million yuan, reflecting a 113.78% decrease compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 134 million yuan, down from 392 million yuan in 2024, marking a decrease of 65.91% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -15.305 million yuan, compared to a profit of 111 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 113.78% [1][2]. - Gross margin fell to 25.51%, down 55.69% year-on-year, while net margin was -24.47%, a decrease of 159.05% [1][2]. - The total of selling, administrative, and financial expenses reached 61.565 million yuan, accounting for 46.04% of total revenue, an increase of 178.17% year-on-year [1][2]. - Earnings per share were -0.03 yuan, down 113.61% from 0.21 yuan in 2024 [1][2]. Operational Insights - The decline in revenue was attributed to decreased product sales and prices [2]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities decreased by 83.06%, also due to lower sales and prices [2]. - The company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) was 2.23% last year, indicating weak capital returns historically [2]. Debt and Financial Health - The company’s interest-bearing debt ratio reached 20.47%, suggesting a need for attention to debt levels [3]. - Cash assets are reported to be healthy, providing some financial stability [2]. Project Development and Strategy - The Zabuye Phase II project has not yet commenced formal production due to various technical and operational challenges [4]. - The project utilizes a photovoltaic and thermal energy technology solution, indicating a focus on sustainable energy [5]. - The company benefits from supportive central government policies in Tibet, which include financing channels and tax incentives [11]. Market Position and Sales Strategy - The company primarily sells its products to downstream customers, with prices determined by a pricing committee based on market indices [7]. - The focus is on lithium and chromium mining, with an aim to enhance governance and performance under the management of Baowu Group [8]. Resource Utilization - The first phase of the Zabuye project produced lithium concentrate using solar evaporation methods, while the second phase aims for comprehensive resource utilization, producing battery-grade lithium carbonate and other products [9].

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is named Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd., with stock code 001203 and bond code 127070 [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Relations Activity - The investor relations activity was held on August 21, 2025, via Tencent Meeting, with participation from various securities firms and funds [2]. - Key company representatives included Chairman Niu Guofeng, CFO Zou Qingli, and Secretary of the Board Lin Puzheng [2]. Group 3: Lithium Mining Progress - The company is progressing with the mining license for the Hunan Jijiao Mountain lithium mine, with the application currently under review by the Ministry of Natural Resources [2][5]. - The company plans to complete the first phase of the Hunan lithium mine project, with a capacity of 20,000 tons, by 2026 [5]. - The Sichuan Jiada lithium mine has an estimated lithium equivalent of 148.42 thousand tons, exceeding expectations, with drilling completed over 15,100 meters and a 95% discovery rate [6]. Group 4: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.972 billion CNY, with iron concentrate contributing 1.402 billion CNY and pellets 404 million CNY [4]. - Net profit for the same period was 406 million CNY, a decrease of 12.32% year-on-year, attributed to a 14.53% drop in the Platts index [4]. - The average selling price of iron concentrate was 827 CNY/ton, down 11.61% year-on-year, but still outperforming market benchmarks [4]. Group 5: Cost Management and Production - The company has successfully completed the pilot test of the sulfuric acid lithium extraction process, addressing key equipment and process issues [3][7]. - The production cost advantages from by-products like potassium sulfate and hydrofluoric acid are being evaluated, with potential revenue to offset production costs [7]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to remain stable, supported by national infrastructure projects, despite potential impacts from the commissioning of the Ximangdu iron mine [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a 33% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, despite a 13% decline in revenue, primarily due to falling lithium prices. The stable performance of the civil explosives segment supported overall earnings [3][4]. - The lithium business saw a revenue decline of 26% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 1.63%, while the civil explosives segment experienced a 3.7% revenue increase and a gross margin of 35.9% [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.423 billion yuan, a decrease of 13% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 136 million yuan, an increase of 33% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 75 million yuan, a decrease of 0.17% year-on-year [4]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.886 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23%, with a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 35% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Lithium Business Insights - The lithium business generated revenue of 1.764 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 26% year-on-year. The average market price for lithium carbonate was 70,300 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22% compared to the average price in 2024 [5]. - The company is expected to produce 280,000 tons of Kamativ lithium concentrate this year, with plans to increase production to 350,000 tons next year, significantly enhancing its self-supply capability [5]. Civil Explosives Business Insights - The civil explosives segment reported revenue of 1.465 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 3.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 253 million yuan, reflecting a 2.4% growth [6]. - The company holds a market share of nearly 5% in industrial explosives and over 11% in electronic detonators in China, with significant market share increases in the Sichuan region [6]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 493 million yuan, 679 million yuan, and 843 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment in lithium price and production volume expectations [6]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) are estimated to be 33, 24, and 19 times for the respective years, with a maintained "Buy" rating due to the significant potential for increased self-supply in the lithium business [6].

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate, a core raw material for power batteries, has seen its price rise significantly, with the main futures contract reaching nearly 90,000 yuan/ton, an increase of over 50% from previous lows, leading to a reassessment of asset values for lithium mining companies [1] - The increase in lithium carbonate prices is driven by several factors: supply-side contraction due to resource reviews in Jiangxi and environmental policies in Chile, cost support from high-cost lithium spodumene mines reducing output when prices fall below 60,000 yuan/ton, and a rebound in demand from the growing sales of electric vehicles and pre-holiday inventory replenishment [2] Group 2 - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has demonstrated keen industry insight by strategically acquiring lithium salt lake resources in Argentina through controlling JAMA and investing in the Solaroz project, expecting to secure over 10 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) resources during the low price period of 60,000 yuan/ton [3] - As lithium carbonate prices rise above 80,000 yuan/ton, Zhongwei's salt lake assets are undergoing a threefold value reassessment: cost advantages with a total cost of 40,000-45,000 yuan/ton leading to a gross margin of 45%-50%, a premium for resource scarcity due to limited global high-quality salt lake resources, and enhanced supply chain security through vertical integration of upstream resources and midstream materials as a precursor supplier with an annual capacity exceeding 200,000 tons [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The option market sentiment has turned bullish, with a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis and the green column converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 82,760 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 142,510 lots, down 3,052 lots; the position of the main contract is 390,069 lots, down 5,033 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 820 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 24,045 lots, up 430 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,200 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 2,440 yuan/ton, down 2,280 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 980 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 8,275 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, up 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 13,845.31 tons, down 3,852.31 tons; the monthly export volume is 366.35 tons, down 63.31 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, down 4 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 131,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, up 1 percentage point; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 51%, down 1 percentage point [2] - The monthly production of new - energy vehicles is 1,243,000 units, down 25,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 units, down 67,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.99%, up 0.68 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 8,220,000 units, up 2,286,000 units; the monthly export volume is 225,000 units, up 20,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 1.308 million units, up 600,000 units [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 159,626 contracts, up 14,286 contracts; the total put position is 146,399 contracts, down 1,225 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 91.71%, down 9.8577 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.44%, up 0.0080 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From August 1 - 17, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 866,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 2% compared with the same period in August last year and an 8% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 13.611 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The retail sales of the national passenger car new - energy market were 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in August last year and a 12% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the national passenger car new - energy market was 58.0%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [2] - From January - July 2025, the top ten SUV manufacturers in terms of sales sold a total of 5.599 million vehicles, accounting for 67.2% of the total SUV sales. Among these ten enterprises, the sales of Tesla and GAC Toyota decreased to varying degrees compared with the same period last year, while the sales of other enterprises increased to varying degrees [2] - Premier African Minerals announced that its Zulu lithium project has made a major breakthrough, and the plant has moved from the commissioning phase to the refining optimization phase [2] - Sigma Lithium's lithium concentrate production in the second quarter reached 68,368 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38%, exceeding the quarterly target of 67,500 tons; the full - sustaining cost dropped to 594 US dollars/ton, lower than the target value of 660 US dollars [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market is approaching 3800 points, surpassing the opening high on October 8, 2024, indicating potential for further growth [1] - The liquor sector's recent rally appears to have ended, with a high opening followed by a decline, suggesting a need for a pause before continuing upward [1] - The securities sector, a key indicator of the bull market, has shown volatility after a high position, with continued fluctuations around high levels [2] Group 2 - The silicon and lithium material sectors, crucial for the upstream of the new energy industry, are experiencing lackluster performance, with signs of potential decline [4] - The current market conditions do not present clear opportunities for investment in these sectors, emphasizing the importance of adhering to investment principles regardless of market fluctuations [4]