Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of balancing performance and cost in battery cell procurement for automotive manufacturers [5] - The article highlights BYD's expansion efforts in Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic move to capture new markets [5] - CATL is noted for its growth in the energy storage market, which is outpacing the growth in the power battery sector [5]

4月26日，作为锂电产业的核心原材料，碳酸锂期货主力合约继周初跌破7万元大关后，进一步跌至 6.784万元(吨价，下同)。数据显示，今年以来碳酸锂期货跌幅达到14%。 上海钢联新能源事业部锂业分析师郑晓强表示，目前整体锂矿供应持续放量，且海内外盐湖提锂产能也 在同步扩张，预计碳酸锂价格后续还会震荡走低。 价格再创新低 2020年，全球新能源浪潮席卷而来，碳酸锂价格从4万元疯狂涨至60万元。2023年7月21日，碳酸锂期货 在广期所上市，当时上市开盘价高达21.8万元。然而，仅过两年时间，碳酸锂期货价格就从20万元跌至 目前不足7万元，跌幅高达68%。 忧虑，进一步抑制了需求。据Mysteel不完全统计，截至4月中旬，港口和国内锂矿石库存为6.85万吨， 环比上涨0.15万吨。 4月以来，美国政府的对等关税政策冲击锂电市场。对于我国锂电产业而言，今年的多轮关税新政，加 上美国已生效的对中国电池产品征收3.4%的基础关税，以及301条款25%的关税，使中国动力电池与储 能电池短期内对美出口综合税率从132.4%/114.9%飙升至153.4%/135.9%。 美国是中国锂电池出口的最大市场，受关税政策及贸易打压影 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the renewable energy manufacturing sector, with a focus on specific segments such as offshore wind, global energy storage, and power equipment [1][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the supply growth in the renewable energy sector has significantly slowed, with fixed asset growth expected to be in single digits for the next year. However, certain sectors are anticipated to see a recovery in return on equity (ROE) as demand increases and operating rates improve [1][2]. - The report highlights that leading companies in lithium batteries, wind energy, energy storage, and power equipment have shown substantial year-on-year growth in contract liabilities, indicating a marginal recovery in demand at the bottom of the industry cycle [1][2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the differences in supply and demand growth rates across various segments and the marginal changes in industry dynamics, recommending a focus on segments with a higher probability of profit improvement [1][3]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply growth rate for renewable energy has noticeably slowed, with projections for fixed asset growth in lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind energy, energy storage, and ultra-high voltage equipment at 8%, 8%, 5%, -5%, and -6% respectively for the next year [2]. - The report notes that the capital expenditure and investment sentiment indicators have significantly declined due to a phase of supply-demand imbalance, leading to a substantial contraction in industry profitability [2]. Demand Side Analysis - The report presents strong year-on-year growth in contract liabilities for leading sectors: lithium battery leaders (80%), onshore wind (62%), offshore wind (35%), energy storage (over 60%), and power equipment (40% for exports, over 70% domestically excluding ultra-high voltage) [2][18]. - It highlights that the decline in contract liabilities for photovoltaics and lithium batteries (excluding CATL) is primarily due to falling prices in the supply chain, which has reduced the unit value of products [2]. Profitability Analysis - The energy storage sector has benefited from rapid revenue growth and stable gross margins, achieving a profit increase of 70%-100%. In contrast, the photovoltaic sector has faced significant profit declines due to large impairment provisions and competitive pressures [3][17]. - The profitability of wind energy and power equipment remains relatively stable, with net profit growth rates in Q1 ranging from 10% to 30% [3][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on segments with potential for marginal improvement in ROE, particularly offshore wind, global energy storage, power equipment (both ultra-high voltage and export), leading lithium battery companies, and onshore wind [3][11].

2025 年 5 月 6 日 电力设备与新能源行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业月报 证券研究报告 新能源与电力设备组 分析师：姚遥（执业 S1130512080001） yaoy＠gjzq.com.cn 锂电 4 月洞察：电车储能销量持续走高，钴价止涨正极盈利企稳 本月行业重要变化： 1）锂电：4 月 30 日，碳酸锂报价 7.0 万元/吨，较上月下降 4.8%；氢氧化锂报价 7.0 万元/吨，较上月下降 0.4%。 2）整车：2025 年 3 月国内新能源乘用车批发销量达 113 万辆，同比+35.5%，环比+35.9%；1～3 月累计批发 285 万辆， 同比+43%。 行情回顾： 2025 年 4 月以来，锂电关联板块中除新能源车环节外，均有不同幅度的下跌，磷酸铁锂正极、锂电铜箔和柴发产业链 等环节跌幅较大，相对沪深 300 的涨跌幅超额分别为-8%、-7%和-5%。多数环节月度成交额较上月大幅下跌，只有新 能源车的月度成交额环比提升，市场关注度不减。锂电关联版块多数环节 3 年历史估值分位处于低值，锂电电解液、 负极和智能驾驶的 3 年历史估值分位仅个位数区间，未来存在估值修复的空间。 本月研究专题： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the photovoltaic and wind energy sectors, highlighting a recovery in profitability and growth potential in these industries [2][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in promoting the use of advanced photovoltaic components, which is seen as a viable solution to address the issue of excess production capacity in the solar industry [7][8]. - The wind energy sector is experiencing a significant uptick in construction activity, with the first offshore wind project in Shandong officially commencing, indicating a positive trend in the industry [2][8]. - The report notes that the performance of the photovoltaic and storage sectors is stabilizing, with signs of a turning point in profitability expected in the near future [2][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The National Energy Administration has issued a notice to encourage the use of advanced photovoltaic components in large-scale projects, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry [7][8]. - The photovoltaic sector is projected to maintain high demand in 2024, with an expected 277 GW of new installations, representing a 28% year-on-year increase [7][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in new installations, with 60 GW added, marking a 31% year-on-year growth [7][8]. Wind Energy - The Shandong Peninsula North L offshore wind project has officially started construction, contributing to the acceleration of offshore wind development in China [2][8]. - The wind energy sector reported a net profit of 12.5 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first year-on-year profit increase in three years [2][8]. - The report highlights three main investment themes in the wind energy sector: improvement in profitability of turbine manufacturers, rising demand for offshore wind, and the release of profit elasticity in component prices [2][8]. Power Grid - The State Grid's second batch of bidding results for transmission and transformation equipment reached 17.64 billion yuan, a 13% year-on-year increase, indicating accelerated main grid construction [3][9]. - The report mentions the release of new bidding projects for distribution transformers and integrated products, with an estimated total bidding amount exceeding 6.5 billion yuan [3][9]. - The introduction of the basic rules for the auxiliary service market marks a significant step towards the market-oriented reform of power services in China [9][10]. New Energy Vehicles - The launch of the Lynk & Co 900, a six-seat plug-in hybrid SUV, has exceeded market expectations with a competitive pricing strategy [14][16]. - The report notes a significant increase in the sales of new energy vehicles, with a retail penetration rate of 52.3% in April 2025 [14][16]. Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cells - The report indicates that hydrogen energy policies are expected to continue, with a focus on quality development and the promotion of the entire hydrogen industry chain [12][15]. - The hydrogen production capacity is projected to reach 120,000 tons per year by 2025, with significant growth in fuel cell vehicle production [12][15].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 7.613 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.15% [1] - Despite the revenue drop, the company managed to reduce its net loss to 1.338 billion yuan, indicating an improvement compared to the previous year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue growth of 5.90% year-on-year, reaching 2.004 billion yuan, with a slight recovery in gross margin [1] Financial Performance - The company's main product, phosphate-based cathode materials, saw a production volume of 236,600 tons in 2024, an increase of 15.31% year-on-year, while sales volume reached 225,700 tons, up by 5.52% [1] - The decline in overall performance was attributed to a significant drop in the prices of key raw materials, particularly lithium, and intensified market competition, leading to a substantial decrease in product prices and gross margins [1] R&D and Innovation - The company emphasized its commitment to research and development, investing 248 million yuan in R&D in 2024, focusing on key areas to enhance its technological leadership [2] - The company is advancing the development and mass production of new products, including next-generation lithium iron phosphate and high-performance additives, to strengthen its technological barriers [2] - The company aims to leverage five strategic pillars: customer enhancement, raw material cost reduction, manufacturing cost reduction, performance premium, and service value addition, to enhance its core competitiveness and ensure long-term sustainable growth [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 High-Performance Sodium Battery Industry Summit and the 2025 High-Performance Solid-State Battery Technology and Application Summit are scheduled for June 9 and June 10, respectively, at the Shangri-La Hotel in Suzhou [2][3] - The Indonesian new energy market is experiencing a significant turning point following LGES's withdrawal from its large-scale project worth hundreds of billions, which opens opportunities for Chinese lithium battery companies like Huayou Cobalt to advance in the Indonesian lithium battery market [3][4] - The total investment of LGES's project in Indonesia is nearly 60 billion RMB, covering the entire industry chain from nickel ore processing to battery manufacturing and recycling [3] Group 2 - Chinese lithium battery companies are increasingly demonstrating advantages in the Indonesian market, with major players like CATL, Guoxuan High-Tech, and Zhongxin Innovation gaining market share globally, particularly in Europe where they have surpassed Japanese and Korean competitors [4] - Chinese lithium battery companies have invested over 200 billion RMB in Indonesia, creating a closed-loop system covering nickel mining, hydrometallurgy, and battery manufacturing, which helps reduce industrialization costs through cluster effects [5] - The strategic positioning in Indonesia allows Chinese lithium battery companies to mitigate risks associated with current tariff frictions, as tariffs on lithium battery materials and batteries exported from Indonesia to the U.S. are 34.5%, significantly lower than those from China [5]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry is experiencing significant fluctuations, with Tianqi Lithium achieving a turnaround in Q1 2024 while Ganfeng Lithium continues to face losses, highlighting divergent strategies in a challenging market environment [1][2][10][11]. Group 1: Company Performance - Tianqi Lithium reported Q1 2024 revenue of 2.584 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of 104 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 3.897 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Ganfeng Lithium's Q1 2024 revenue was 3.772 billion yuan, down 25.43% year-on-year, with a net loss of 356 million yuan, although the loss narrowed from 439 million yuan in the previous year [1][5]. - In 2023, Tianqi Lithium faced a significant revenue drop of 67.75%, with a net loss of 7.905 billion yuan, while Ganfeng Lithium's revenue decreased by 42.66%, resulting in a net loss of 2.074 billion yuan, marking its first annual loss since 2010 [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - Tianqi Lithium's Q1 2024 performance improvement is attributed to the resolution of several adverse factors affecting its 2024 results, including better pricing mechanisms for lithium concentrate and reduced production costs [3][4]. - The company also benefited from increased investment income from its associate SQM, which is expected to show year-on-year growth [4]. - Ganfeng Lithium did not disclose specific reasons for its continued losses in Q1 2024, but it indicated that the current lithium prices are likely at a relatively low point [5][6]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The lithium market is currently facing oversupply issues, with lithium prices continuing to decline, impacting the financial health of lithium salt manufacturers [7][9]. - As of April 30, 2024, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to 67,900 yuan per ton, a drop of over 9% since the beginning of the year, which has affected cash flow for companies like Ganfeng Lithium [8]. - The industry is expected to see continued oversupply, with significant production increases anticipated in 2025, further pressuring prices [9]. Group 4: Strategic Directions - Tianqi Lithium is focusing on a long-term strategy of strengthening its upstream resources and expanding its midstream production capabilities, aiming for vertical integration in the lithium supply chain [10]. - Ganfeng Lithium is shifting its revenue focus towards lithium battery manufacturing, with a notable increase in the contribution of battery products to its overall revenue [11]. - The company is currently emphasizing its energy storage segment, which faces challenges due to significant overcapacity in the market [12].

制造·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 摘要 • 风电行业一季度景气度回升，收入同比增长 15%，归母净利润同比增长 3%，为近三年首次。零部件环节盈利显著修复，全产业链存货和应收账款 周转加速，看好 2025 年量利齐升与业绩估值双击。 • 光伏主产业链仍处于景气筑底状态，但储能逆变器环节表现亮眼。一季度 硅片、电池片及硅片组件辅材环节毛利率明显修复，电池片环节率先实现 毛利转正。建议关注经营稳健的头部公司及供需关系良好的核心辅材。 • 新能源车受益于以旧换新政策和出海加速，一季度销量稳定增长。锂电板 块自去年二季度进入复苏阶段，今年一季度逐步进入繁荣期，库存周期从 被动去库向主动补库转移。推荐具备低成本路线和强爆款打造能力的车企。 • 锂电产业链中，高压实密度材料的磷酸铁锂和六氟磷酸锂，以及电芯结构 件、辅材、负极铁锂、三元前驱体隔膜等细分赛道值得重点关注。关注固 态电池产业化进度及布局机器人、半导体等第二增长曲线的公司。 • 电网板块稳步增长，2024 年营收增速约 12%-13%，净利润保持稳定增 长。出海和主网设备环节资本开支高速增长，2025 年一季度电力设备出 口同比增长 17%。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the technology industry, particularly sectors such as AI, robotics, autonomous driving, and the Hang Seng Technology Index Core Points and Arguments - **Macroeconomic Trends**: Emphasis on accelerating investment in technology sectors during periods of market downturns, with a focus on AI, robotics, and autonomous driving as key areas for future rebounds [1][3] - **2025 Investment Focus**: Key industries to watch include leading service consumption companies and firms enhancing shareholder returns. Notable sectors for performance upgrades from mid-March to early May include precious metals, transportation, large finance, agricultural products, and food processing [1][5] - **Capital Expenditure**: Identified as a crucial driver for the technology market, with recent trends indicating increased investment from government and private sectors following the emergence of DeepSeek, which has altered expectations for domestic technological breakthroughs [1][6] - **Impact of Export Exposure**: Anticipated performance impact from the complete elimination of export exposure to the U.S. is estimated to be between 20% to 40%, potentially leading to 2-3 trading halts for individual stocks. However, this should not be interpreted as a signal of a comprehensive recession [1][7] - **May Market Outlook**: The market direction remains unclear, but two key themes are highlighted: potential rebounds in export chains due to easing U.S.-China relations, particularly in technology products, and the ongoing focus on technology sectors including AI, robotics, and new consumption trends [1][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Three-Phase Strategy for Tariff Impacts**: A structured approach to address recent tariff impacts includes: 1. Counter-cyclical strategies based on past trade disputes 2. Active management of market sentiment and performance expectations 3. Continued focus on technology sectors and self-sufficiency in critical areas like semiconductors and military materials [2] - **Long-term Investment Recommendations**: Industries suitable for long-term strategic investments include those with supply-side clearing such as Hong Kong internet, AH stock white goods, commercial vehicles, and lithium battery leaders, along with agricultural chemicals and pharmaceuticals [11] - **Annual Strategy Consistency**: The annual investment strategy remains unchanged, focusing on three main lines: AI and robotics, new consumption, and supply-side clearing sectors, with additional allocations to agricultural chemicals and military aerospace equipment [9][10]