Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View There is no explicit core view presented in the given content. The report mainly provides detailed data on the synthetic rubber market, including prices, trading volumes, positions, and profit margins for different types of synthetic rubber and related products. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog a. BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract on May 26 was 11,545, a daily decrease of 352 and a weekly decrease (not fully shown). The market prices in Shandong, Zhejiang, and the factory - price in Qilu all increased compared to previous dates. For example, the Shandong market price reached 13,650 on May 26, with a daily increase of 1,450 and a weekly increase of 1,150 [3]. - **Position and Volume**: The main contract's open interest on May 26 was 52,885, a daily increase of 37,821 and a weekly increase of 33,356. The trading volume was 175,284, a daily increase of 77,671 and a weekly increase of 51,063 [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis (cis - BR) was - 135 on May 26, with a daily decrease of 435 and a weekly decrease of 295. The month - spread (06 - 07) was - 65, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 15 [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The spot processing profit was 179 on May 26, a daily increase of 1,093 and a weekly increase of 1,329. The import profit was - 1,214, a daily decrease of 796 and a weekly decrease of 1,381 [3]. b. BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Market Data**: The market prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and the factory - price in Yangzi all showed certain changes. For example, the Shandong market price on May 26 was 11,050, a daily increase of 350 and a weekly decrease of 175 [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The carbon - four extraction profit was 3,459 on May 26, a daily decrease of 16 and a weekly decrease of 600. The butene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was 816, a daily decrease of 840 [3]. c. Downstream Products - **Profit Margins**: The production profits of downstream products such as ABS, SBS, and others also changed. For example, the ABS production profit on May 26 was 418, a daily increase of 380 and a weekly increase of 805 [3]. d. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The spreads between different varieties, such as RU - BR, NR - BR, and Thai mixed - cis, all showed changes. For example, the RU - BR spread on May 26 was 3,340, a daily increase of 420 and a weekly increase of 575 [3]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The spreads within the same variety, such as the cis - standard non - standard price spread and the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread, also changed. For example, the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread on May 26 was 1,700, a significant change compared to previous dates [3].

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-26 主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11545 | -205 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 52885 | -17086 | | | 合成橡胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | -65 | 20 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 6750 | -40 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 12050 | -150 主 ...

1. Report Overview - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2] - Report Date: May 26, 2025 [2] 2. Key Data Summary 2.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Market** - Main contract closing price on May 23 was 11,750, a daily decrease of 320 and a weekly decrease of 410 [3] - Main contract trading volume on May 23 was 101,603, a daily increase of 6,801 and a weekly decrease of 32,636 [3] - Main contract open interest on April 25 was 42,499 [3] - Warehouse receipt quantity on May 23 was 10,460, a daily increase of 170 and a weekly decrease of 880 [3] - Virtual - to - physical ratio on May 23 was 33.45, a daily increase of 25 and a weekly increase of 24 [3] - **Basis and Spread** - Basis (Cis - BR) on May 23 was - 135, a daily decrease of 365 and a weekly decrease of 375 [3] - Basis (Styrene - butadiene - BR) on May 23 was 265, a daily decrease of 365 and a weekly decrease of 475 [3] - Month - to - month spread (06 - 07) on May 23 was - 85, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly decrease of 10 [3] - Month - to - month spread (07 - 08) on May 23 was 150, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 5 [3] - **Spot Market** - Shandong market price on May 23 was 13,650, a daily increase of 1,250 and a weekly increase of 1,150 [3] - Zhejiang Chuanhua market price on May 23 was 13,500, a daily increase of 1,200 and a weekly increase of 1,100 [3] - Qilu ex - factory price on May 23 was 13,700, a daily increase of 1,000 and a weekly increase of 1,000 [3] - CFR Northeast Asia on May 23 was 1,750, a daily increase of 250 and a weekly increase of 300 [3] - CFR Southeast Asia on May 23 was 2,000, a daily increase of 213 and a weekly increase of 225 [3] - FOB China on May 23 was 1,750, a daily increase of 225 and a weekly increase of 225 [3] - **Processing and Trade** - Spot processing profit on May 23 was 179, a daily increase of 1,199 and a weekly increase of 1,456 [3] - Futures processing profit on May 23 was 164, a daily increase of 1,514 and a weekly increase of 1,781 [3] - Import profit on May 23 was - 1,214, a daily decrease of 866 and a weekly decrease of 1,392 [3] - Export profit on May 23 was 1,981, a daily increase of 519 and a weekly increase of 715 [3] 2.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Price** - Shandong market price on May 23 was 11,050, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 300 [3] - Jiangsu market price on May 23 was 11,000, a daily increase of 450 and a weekly increase of 150 [3] - Yangzi ex - factory price on May 23 was 11,100, a daily increase of 400 and a weekly increase of 0 [3] - CFR China on May 23 was 11,082, a daily increase of 1,133 and a weekly increase of 963 [3] - **Processing and Trade** - C4 extraction profit on May 23 was 3,459, a daily increase of 92 and a weekly decrease of 546 [3] - Butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on May 23 was 816, a daily decrease of 990 and a weekly decrease of 1,220 [3] - Import profit on May 23 was - 139, a daily decrease of 749 and a weekly decrease of 901 [3] - Export profit on May 23 was - 576, a daily increase of 594 and a weekly increase of 868 [3] 2.3 Downstream Profits - **Production Profits** - Cis - butadiene production profit on May 23 was 179, a daily increase of 1,199 and a weekly increase of 1,456 [3] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on May 23 was 1,075, a daily increase of 650 and a weekly increase of 1,000 [3] - ABS production profit on May 23 was 418, a daily increase of 401 and a weekly increase of 837 [3] - SBS production profit (791 - H) on May 23 was 330, a daily decrease of 280 and a weekly increase of 200 [3] 2.4 Price Spreads - **Inter - product Spreads** - RU - BR on May 23 was 3,340, a daily increase of 470 [3] - NR - BR on May 23 was 1,085, a daily increase of 240 and a weekly increase of 515 [3] - Thai mixed - cis - butadiene on May 23 was 3,000, a daily increase of 800 and a weekly increase of 900 [3] - 3L - styrene - butadiene on May 23 was 3,450, a daily increase of 350 and a weekly increase of 600 [3] - **Intra - product Spreads** - Cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price spread on May 23 was 250, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 30 [3] - Styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 on May 23 was 1,700, a daily increase of 700 and a weekly increase of 700 [3]

Report Overview - Report Name: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team - Date: May 23, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - No clear core view is given in the provided content. The report mainly presents a large amount of data on synthetic rubber, including prices, trading volumes, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) 3.1.1 Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the BR main contract on May 22 was 11,895, a daily decrease of 345 and a weekly decrease of 362 compared to May 15 [3]. - The open interest of the BR main contract on May 22 was 13,554, a daily decrease of 5,975 and a weekly decrease of 9,229 [3]. - The trading volume of the BR main contract on May 22 was 74,911, a daily decrease of 49,310 and a weekly decrease of 51,953 [3]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber (cis - BR) on May 22 was - 135, a daily decrease of 295 and a weekly decrease of 325 [3]. - The basis of styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR - BR) on May 22 was 265, a daily decrease of 295 and a weekly decrease of 375 [3]. - The spread between contracts 06 - 07 on May 22 was - 80, a daily decrease of 135 and a weekly decrease of 40 [3]. - The spread between contracts 07 - 08 on May 22 was 130, a daily decrease of 35 and a weekly decrease of 15 [3]. 3.1.3 Market Price - The market price of BR in Shandong on May 22 was 13,650, a daily increase of 1,150 and a weekly increase of 1,100 [3]. - The market price of BR in Zhejiang Chuanhua on May 22 was 13,500, a daily increase of 1,100 and a weekly increase of 1,050 [3]. - The ex - factory price of BR at Qilu on May 22 was 13,700, a daily increase of 1,000 and a weekly increase of 1,000 [3]. 3.1.4 Processing and Profit - The spot processing profit of BR on May 22 was 179, a daily increase of 1,329 and a weekly increase of 1,457 [3]. - The on - screen processing profit of BR on May 22 was 164, a daily increase of 1,574 and a weekly increase of 1,732 [3]. - The import profit of BR on May 22 was - 1,214, a daily decrease of 973 and a weekly decrease of 1,395 [3]. - The export profit of BR on May 22 was 1,981, a daily increase of 613 and a weekly increase of 718 [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) 3.2.1 Market Price - The market price of BD in Shandong on May 22 was 11,050, a daily decrease of 175 and a weekly decrease of 350 [3]. - The market price of BD in Jiangsu on May 22 was 11,100, a daily increase of 250 [3]. - The ex - factory price of BD at Yangzi on May 22 was 11,100, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 0 [3]. - The CFR China price of BD on May 22 was 11,082, a daily increase of 1,133 and a weekly increase of 2,208 [3]. 3.2.2 Processing and Profit - The carbon - four extraction profit of BD on May 22 was 3,459, a daily decrease of 165 and a weekly decrease of 400 [3]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit of BD on May 22 was 816, a daily decrease of 1,120 and a weekly decrease of 1,270 [3]. - The import profit of BD on May 22 was - 139, a daily decrease of 955 and a weekly decrease of 2,175 [3]. - The export profit of BD on May 22 was - 576, a daily increase of 773 and a weekly increase of 1,886 [3]. 3.3 Downstream Products 3.3.1 Production Profit - The production profit of ABS on May 22 was 418, a daily increase of 430 and a weekly increase of 872 [3]. - The production profit of SBS (791 - H) on May 22 was 330, a daily decrease of 140 and a weekly increase of 500 [3]. - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber on May 22 was 179, a daily increase of 1,329 and a weekly increase of 1,457 [3]. - The production profit of styrene - butadiene rubber on May 22 was 1,075, a daily increase of 850 and a weekly increase of 1,000 [3]. 3.4 Variety Spreads 3.4.1 Inter - Variety Spreads - The spread between RU - BR on May 22 was 3,340, a daily increase of 575 and a weekly increase of 510 [3]. - The spread between NR - BR on May 22 was 1,085, a daily increase of 440 and a weekly increase of 455 [3]. - The spread between Thai mixed - cis - butadiene rubber on May 22 was 3,000, a daily increase of 850 and a weekly increase of 750 [3]. - The spread between 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber on May 22 was 3,450, a daily increase of 400 and a weekly increase of 400 [3]. 3.4.2 Intra - Variety Spreads - The spread between standard and non - standard cis - butadiene rubber on May 22 was 250, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 80 [3]. - The spread between SBR 1502 - 1712 on May 22 was 1,700, a daily increase of 800 and a weekly increase of 700 [3].

定状态，但个别企业为控制库存增长，排产小幅下调，限制了整体产能利用率提升幅度，少数企业将在月 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 底存检修计划，或将对整体产能利用率形成拖拽。br2507合约短线关注12000附近支撑情况，建议暂以观 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 望为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/ ...

Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Date: May 22, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) 3.1.1 Futures Market - **Price**: The closing price of the main contract decreased from 12160 on May 16th to 11900 on May 21st, a daily change of -260 and a weekly change of -480 [3]. - **Position**: The position of the main contract decreased from 20487 on May 16th to 15064 on May 21st, a daily change of -5423 and a weekly change of -11441 [3]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract decreased from 134239 on May 16th to 97613 on May 21st, a daily change of -36626 and a weekly change of -113762 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 11340 on May 16th to 10490 on May 21st, a daily change of -850 and a weekly change of -990 [3]. - **Virtual - Real Ratio**: The virtual - real ratio decreased from 9.03 on May 16th to 7.18 on May 21st, a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of -4 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis (Cis - BR) changed from 240 on May 16th to -135 on May 21st, a daily change of -375 and a weekly change of -405; the basis (Styrene - Butadiene - BR) changed from 740 on May 16th to 265 on May 21st, a daily change of -475 [3]. - **Spread between Contracts**: The spread (06 - 07) changed from -75 on May 16th to -115 on May 21st, a daily change of -40; the spread (07 - 08) changed from 155 on May 16th to 120 on May 21st, a daily change of -35 [3]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price increased from 12500 on May 16th to 13650 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1150 and a weekly increase of 1000; the Zhejiang Chuanhua market price increased from 12400 on May 16th to 13500 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1100 and a weekly increase of 850; the Qilu ex - factory price increased from 12700 on May 16th to 13700 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1000 and a weekly increase of 1000 [3]. - **International Price**: CFR Northeast Asia increased from 1500 on May 16th to 1750 on May 21st, a daily increase of 250 and a weekly increase of 300; CFR Southeast Asia increased from 1788 on May 16th to 2000 on May 21st, a daily increase of 213 and a weekly increase of 225; FOB China increased to 1750 on May 21st [3]. - **Processing Profit**: The spot processing profit increased from -1277 on May 16th to 179 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1456 and a weekly increase of 1561; the futures processing profit increased from -1617 on May 16th to 164 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1781 and a weekly increase of 1816 [3]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit changed from -229 on May 16th; the export profit increased from 1356 on May 16th to 1981 on May 21st, a daily increase of 625 and a weekly increase of 768 [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) 3.2.1 Spot Market - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price decreased from 11350 on May 16th to 11050 on May 21st, a daily decrease of 300 and a weekly decrease of 550; the Jiangsu market price increased from 10850 on May 16th to 11000 on May 21st, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly decrease of 350; the Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 11100; CFR China increased from 10113 on May 16th to 11082 on May 21st, a daily increase of 970 and a weekly increase of 2370 [3]. - **Processing Profit**: The carbon - four extraction profit decreased from 3827 on May 16th to 3459 on May 21st, a daily decrease of 367 and a weekly increase of 282; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit decreased from 2036 on May 16th to 816 on May 21st, a daily decrease of 1220 and a weekly decrease of 1720 [3]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit decreased from 762 on May 16th to -139 on May 21st, a daily decrease of 901 and a weekly decrease of 2792; the export profit increased from -1444 on May 16th to -576 on May 21st, a daily increase of 868 and a weekly increase of 2534 [3]. 3.2.2 Downstream Profit - **Production Profit**: The cis - butadiene production profit increased from -1277 on May 16th to 179 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1456 and a weekly increase of 1561; the styrene - butadiene production profit increased from 75 on May 16th to 1075 on May 21st, a daily increase of 1000 and a weekly increase of 1000; the ABS production profit increased to 418; the SBS (791 - H) production profit increased from 130 on May 16th to 330 on May 21st, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 60 [3]. 3.3 Price Spreads - **Variety - to - Variety Spread**: The RU - BR spread increased from 2745 on May 16th to 3340 on May 21st; the NR - BR spread increased from 570 on May 16th to 1085 on May 21st; the Thai Mixed - Cis spread increased from 2100 on May 16th to 3000 on May 21st; the 3L - Styrene - Butadiene spread increased from 2850 on May 16th to 3450 on May 21st [3]. - **Variety - within Spread**: The Cis standard - non - standard price spread increased from 220 on May 16th to 250 on May 21st; the Styrene - Butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread increased from 1000 on May 16th to 1700 on May 21st [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Recent raw material butadiene prices have been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdowns of some units, significantly increasing the production cost of cis - butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private cis - butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, increasing supply. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly last week, but most semi - steel tire enterprises have slow overall shipments and continued inventory growth, while full - steel tire capacity utilization is in a restorative growth state, with some enterprises facing increased shipment pressure, continued growth in finished product inventory, insufficient orders, and overall production scheduling lower than the pre - holiday average. The BR2507 contract should pay short - term attention to the support level around 12,000, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 15,064 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,927 yuan/ton. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread is - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 6,820 tons, an increase of 200 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers has decreased. The base difference of synthetic rubber is 450 yuan/ton, and the price of Brent crude oil is 70 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.16 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 780 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,200 dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 62.03 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.66 dollars/barrel, and the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 11,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 68.02%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 30,870 tons, a decrease of 6,030 tons. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.28%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 79.2%, an increase of 4.46 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 1,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,200 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the trader's inventory is 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.33%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 65.09%, an increase of 20.32 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days [2] Industry News - As of May 15, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China decreased by 0.14 million tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.26%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points. In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% compared with March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing year - on - year parity [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: May 21, 2025 [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures Data - BR2505 Closing Price on May 20: 12,070, down 190 from the previous day and 135 from the previous period [3] - BR2505 Position on May 20: 16,991, down 5,792 from the previous day and 9,431 from the previous period [3] - BR2505 Trading Volume on May 20: 94,802, down 32,062 from the previous day and 124,989 from the previous period [3] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity on May 20: 10,290, down 1,390 from the previous day and 1,250 from the previous period [3] - Long - Short Ratio on May 20: 8.26, down 1 from the previous day and 3 from the previous period [3] Basis and Spread Data - Basis (Cis - BR) on May 20: - 135, down 325 from the previous day and 30 from the previous period [3] - Basis (Styrene - Butadiene - BR) on May 20: 265, down 375 from the previous day and up 20 from the previous period [3] - Month Spread (03 - 04) on May 20: 130, down 50 from the previous day [3] - Month Spread (04 - 05) on May 20: - 45, up 50 from the previous day and 125 from the previous period [3] Spot Price Data - Shandong Market Price on May 20: 13,650, up 1,100 from the previous day and 1,500 from the previous period [3] - Zhejiang Chuanhua Market Price on May 20: 13,500, up 1,050 from the previous day and 1,400 from the previous period [3] - Qilu Factory Price on May 20: 13,700, up 1,000 from the previous day and 1,400 from the previous period [3] Processing and Import - Export Data - Spot Processing Profit on May 20: 179, up 1,457 from the previous day and 1,041 from the previous period [3] - Futures Processing Profit on May 20: 164, up 1,732 from the previous day and 971 from the previous period [3] - Import Profit on May 20: - 1,214, down 1,395 from the previous day and 1,002 from the previous period [3] - Export Profit on May 20: 1,981, up 718 from the previous day and 377 from the previous period [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Price Data - Shandong Market Price on May 20: 11,050, down 350 from the previous day and up 450 from the previous period [3] - Jiangsu Market Price on May 20: 11,000, up 100 from the previous day and 550 from the previous period [3] - Yangzi Factory Price on May 20: 11,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 800 from the previous period [3] - CFR China Price on May 20: 11,082, up 967 from the previous day [3] Processing and Import - Export Data - Carbon Four Extraction Profit on May 20: 3,459, down 600 from the previous day and up 929 from the previous period [3] - Butene Oxidative Dehydrogenation Profit on May 20: 816, down 1,270 from the previous day and 820 from the previous period [3] - Import Profit on May 20: - 139, down 953 from the previous day [3] - Export Profit on May 20: - 576, up 913 from the previous day [3] Group 4: Downstream Profit Data - Cis - Butadiene Production Profit on May 20: 179, up 1,457 from the previous day and 1,041 from the previous period [3] - Styrene - Butadiene Production Profit on May 20: 1,075, up 1,000 from the previous day and 650 from the previous period [3] - ABS Production Profit on May 20: 418, up 368 from the previous period [3] - SBS Production Profit (791 - H) on May 20: 330, up 200 from the previous day and down 160 from the previous period [3] Group 5: Variety Spread Data - RU - BR Spread on May 20: 3,340, up 510 from the previous day and 550 from the previous period [3] - NR - BR Spread on May 20: 1,085, up 455 from the previous day and 435 from the previous period [3] - Thai Mixed - Cis - Butadiene Spread on May 20: 3,000, up 750 from the previous day and 380 from the previous period [3] - 3L - Styrene - Butadiene Spread on May 20: 3,450, up 400 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous period [3] - Standard - Non - Standard Cis - Butadiene Spread on May 20: 250, up 80 from the previous day and 100 from the previous period [3] - Styrene - Butadiene 1502 - 1712 Spread on May 20: 1,700, up 700 from the previous day and 650 from the previous period [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent raw material butadiene prices have been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdowns of some units, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private butadiene rubber units are expected to restart, increasing supply. In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. Most semi - steel tire enterprises have returned to normal levels but with slow overall shipments and continued inventory growth. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires is in a restorative upward trend, but some enterprises have increased inventory due to shipment pressure, insufficient orders, and overall production scheduling below the pre - holiday average. The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 12,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton. The main contract position was 16,991, a decrease of 2,538. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 6,620 tons, a decrease of 60 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. Brent crude oil was 65.54 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.13 dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan was 569.38 dollars/ton, an increase of 4 dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 780 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR China butadiene intermediate price was 1,220 dollars/ton, unchanged. WTI crude oil was 62.69 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.2 dollars/barrel. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 11,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged. The weekly butadiene capacity utilization rate was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points. The port butadiene inventory was 30,870 tons, a decrease of 6,030 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47.28%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 79.2%, an increase of 4.46 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 1,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.33%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.09%, an increase of 20.32 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of May 15, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,100 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period (May 7, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 4.26%. As of May 15, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on -，month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points. In April 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 19% from March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [2].

| | | 指标 | 4/21 | 5/12 | 5/13 | 5/14 | 5/19 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR2505收盘价 | 11195 | 11820 | 12205 | 12380 | 12240 | -140 | 420 | | | | BR2505持仓量 | 14306 | 25672 | 26422 | 26505 | 19529 | -6976 | -6143 | | | ：11 | BR2505成交量 | 114788 | 189461 | 219791 | 211375 | 124221 | -87154 | -65240 | | | | 仓单数量 | 15680 | 11570 | 11540 | 11480 | 10350 | -1130 | -1220 | | | | 虚实比 | 4.56 | 11.09 | 11.45 | 11.54 | 9.43 | -2 | -2 | | | | 基差(顺丁-BR) | 105 | -20 | - ...