Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term performance of domestic and foreign bean futures prices is still in a volatile range, and the palm oil price has limited rebound space and is expected to be volatile and strong [5][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Bean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is volatile [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: With the increase in imported soybeans, most oil mills' operating rates are gradually recovering. The提货量 of oil mills has rebounded rapidly and is higher than the same period in previous years. After terminal replenishment, the enthusiasm for further procurement is not high. The domestic market continues to trade on the "weak reality, strong expectation" logic. The weather during the US soybean sowing period, China's procurement rhythm, and the loading rhythm of South American soybeans continue to affect the performance of US soybean futures prices. Recently, the linkage between domestic and foreign bean futures prices has been repaired [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is volatile [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The production and demand of palm oil in Southeast Asia are both increasing. Whether the export of Malaysian palm oil can remain strong determines whether the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will continue to accumulate. Indonesia's increase in the export tax on crude palm oil is beneficial to boosting the export of Malaysian palm oil and alleviating the inventory pressure. The increase in domestic palm oil purchases by importers helps to replenish the low domestic palm oil inventory. Although there is a certain recovery expectation for palm oil demand, the reaction in the spot market is limited, and the short - term rebound space of palm oil is limited [8]. 3.3 Soybean Oil (2509) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: It is affected by US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7].

宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着美国农业部报告利多影响释放，美豆期价大涨，内外盘豆类价差持续修复。国内油厂开机 率逐渐恢复，短期现货供应恢复节奏偏慢，对现货行情仍然形成一定支撑，但供应宽松预期不断强化。近 月供应压力不断增加，令基差快速回落，未来几日期现价差仍将快速回归。国内受到供应恢复预期的压制， 短期豆粕期价维持震荡偏强运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） < END > 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the overall industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of major agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are expected to be in a state of shock, with an overall bias towards a weak shock [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the overall stable - to - weak spot prices of soybean meal in North China and Northeast China, the futures price fluctuates narrowly. The spot basis of soybean meal has accelerated its decline to 200, and market sentiment has weakened. With the expected arrival of a large number of imported soybeans gradually materializing, the domestic supply pressure after May is gradually emerging. Due to the low physical inventory of feed enterprises, there is still restocking demand in the later stage. The short - term soybean meal inventory has not yet reached an inflection point, and the accumulation of soybean meal in oil mills is expected to occur in late May. The short - term futures price of soybean meal will maintain a range - bound shock [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: With the increasing supply of palm oil in Southeast Asia, the export competitiveness and demand prospects of palm oil will affect its inventory pressure. In China, with the increase in palm oil purchases, the domestic inventory is expected to rise from a low level. The reverse substitution of domestic palm oil has not started. In the oil and fat sector, although palm oil has substitution potential, the spot performance is limited, and there is a lack of obvious driving factors. Without capital attention, the futures price of palm oil will continue to follow the market passively [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel restocking demand, the price is in a state of shock - weak [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend. The short - term view is volatile and strong, the medium - term view is volatile and weak, and the overall reference view is a strong - side operation [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Price Movement and Core Logic - The methanol 2509 contract shows a volatile trend in the short - term, is volatile and weak in the medium - term, and is volatile and strong on the day. The overall view is a strong - side operation because the positive factors prevail [1]. - The high production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol this year has led to high methanol operating rates and weekly output during the spring maintenance period, resulting in significant internal supply pressure. However, the slow loading of methanol cargoes in the Middle East has alleviated the pressure on domestic port methanol inventories, and the inventory reduction rhythm is smooth. The profit of downstream olefin futures has recovered, and the demand factor is gradually increasing. After the May Day holiday, affected by the US's increased economic sanctions on Iran and a slight rise in natural gas futures prices, the domestic methanol 2509 futures contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend [5]. b. Price Calculation Notes - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price on the same day, and the price increase or decrease is calculated based on these [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is a volatile and weak trend, an increase of 0 - 1% is a volatile and strong trend, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise [3]. - The volatile and strong/weak trends only apply to the intraday view, and no distinction is made for the short - term and medium - term views [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - During the week from April 21st to April 25th, 2025, the overall market sentiment recovered due to the softened stances of US President Trump on tariff policies and the Federal Reserve. Globally, stocks and bonds rose while commodities fluctuated weakly. In China, the stock market performed strongly, the bond market was weak, and commodities closed higher for the week. The actual implementation of US tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain key factors, and important US data releases during the May Day holiday may impact short - term asset prices [3][6][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - In the week from April 21st to April 25th, equity assets rebounded due to the Trump administration's conciliatory signals. US stocks led the gains, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index continued to decline weekly. Regionally, in the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.23% weekly; in the European market, MSCI Europe rose 2.95% weekly; in the American market, MSCI US rose 4.69% weekly [8][11][13]. 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond continued to decline weekly. Market expectations of a US dollar interest rate cut in June increased. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds. The 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 5BP to 4.29% [15]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index stopped falling and stabilized weekly. Major non - US currencies against the US dollar showed mixed movements, and the RMB exchange rate was slightly stronger with fluctuations. The US dollar index rose 0.36% for the week [16]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Crude oil fundamentals remained weak, and international oil prices declined weekly. International gold prices first rose and then fell due to volatile safe - haven demand. Prices of major industrial products and agricultural products showed mixed movements [18]. 3.2 Domestic Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - The domestic stock market continued to rebound, but the performance of major A - share broad - based indices was divergent. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. In terms of style, the North Exchange 50 index fell 2.16% weekly. In terms of sectors, the automobile, power equipment, and new energy sectors rose, while the food and beverage sector performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.56% for the week [20]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The domestic bond market was weak. The central bank's net open - market operation injection was 77.4 billion yuan, and the capital market remained stable overall. Generally, corporate bonds > government bonds > credit bonds [23]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market rose overall. Among major commodity sectors, the oilseeds and oils sector led the gains [25]. 3.3 Asset Price Outlook - The actual implementation of US tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy are still important factors. The release of important US data such as non - farm payrolls during the May Day holiday may impact short - term asset prices [28].

Report Overview - **Date**: April 2, 2025 - **Research Institution**: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Co., Ltd. - **Research Team**: Li Binlian, Ma Chen, Xue Libing, Li Jun Investment Ratings - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Slightly Strong; Medium - term: Strong [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term: Narrow - range Fluctuation; Medium - term: Strong [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Short - term: Weak; Medium - term: Under Pressure [3] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflows. Overseas, US tariff policies and inflation data affect the market. The equity market pricing returns to fundamentals, with short - term performance expectations and medium - term domestic technology innovation as the main lines [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Post - quarter liquidity is generally optimistic, but central bank operations limit overnight rates. Policy emphasizes long - term bond yields, and the weak fundamental improvement expectation supports long - term bonds [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Steel exports face trade barriers, consumption improvement is less than expected, and raw material inventory pressure is large, leading to steel prices under pressure [3][4] Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options, and exit the long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio opportunistically [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Domestic**: From January to February, industrial enterprise profits were structurally stable, and PMI data was positive. Capital market systems for securities issuance and refinancing were optimized, and long - term institutional funds were promoted [1] - **Overseas**: US auto tariff policies and high inflation data increased market concerns about stagflation, and the uncertainty of tariffs and interest rate cuts affected the equity market [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2506 and TL2506 [2] - **Core Logic**: - **Funds**: Post - quarter liquidity was optimistic, but central bank net withdrawals limited overnight rate decline. Long - term funds' interest rates were relatively stable [2] - **Policy**: The central bank's Q1 monetary policy meeting emphasized long - term bond yields to prevent systemic risks [2] - **Fundamentals**: Economic data in the first two months was mediocre, with weak external demand, inflation, and financial data, hindering the improvement expectation [2] Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel) - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 inter - period positive spread strategy [3] - **Core Logic**: - **Exports**: Steel exports faced trade barriers such as anti - dumping duties from Vietnam and South Korea [3] - **Consumption**: Steel consumption improvement was less than expected, with poor construction funds and weak rebar consumption [3] - **Raw Materials**: Iron ore and coal - coke inventories had pressure, which might increase steel supply and put pressure on costs [3][4]