对话有机硅，反内卷与新需求如何共振？20251111 摘要 2025 年初有机硅单体产能达 680 万吨，较 2024 年初的 540 万吨增长 近 25%，但国内需求未同步增长，导致供需失衡，价格持续下跌至企业 完全成本线以下。 2025 年上半年，部分企业曾尝试自发组织减产以应对反倾销，但因需 求疲软和私下接单导致同盟分裂。11 月会议预计将讨论提升 DMC 价格 至 12,000 元/吨以上，并采取轮动性减产，维持开工率在 60%-70%。 短期内反倾销措施仍以企业自发为主，长期可能转向协会或国家引导， 类似于多晶硅行业。当前单体利润尚有 100-200 元/吨，但需警惕政策 变化和市场动态。 近期合盛、东岳、新安等有机硅相关公司股票上涨，反映市场对反倾销 措施的乐观预期，认为将改善供需，提升盈利能力。 新能源汽车和机器人是有机硅新兴应用领域，需求增速分别为 5%-6% 和潜力巨大。房地产市场虽收缩，仍占有机硅需求 40%-50%，预计未 来将逐步复苏，需求保持增长。 Q&A 当前有机硅行业的反倾销问题是如何形成的？ 有机硅行业的反倾销问题可以追溯到 2023 年左右。当时，有机硅产品，尤其 是 DMC ...

Group 1: Industry Performance Overview - In the first three quarters, 540 listed chemical companies in the basic chemical sector achieved total operating revenue of 23,132.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.69%; net profit reached 1,196.75 billion yuan, up 8.69%, indicating continuous improvement in overall performance and solid steps towards high-quality development [1] Group 2: Subsector Performance - The potassium fertilizer market has seen strong performance, with four potassium fertilizer companies achieving total operating revenue of 20.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.62%; net profit reached 9.445 billion yuan, up 57.60% [2] - The refrigerant industry benefited from a sustained high demand, with five refrigerant companies reporting total operating revenue of 51.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.51%; net profit reached 7.446 billion yuan, up 138.04% [2] - The pesticide industry showed broad revenue growth and significant profit improvement, with 42 pesticide companies achieving total operating revenue of 164.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%; net profit reached 7.334 billion yuan, up 111.66% [3] Group 3: Challenges and Supply-Demand Imbalance - Despite some sectors performing well, supply-demand mismatches remain a major challenge for high-quality development. The carbon black industry is experiencing price declines and high costs, leading to losses for most companies [4] - The tire industry faced a decline in net profit, with six tire companies reporting total operating revenue of 31.605 billion yuan, down 3.75%; net profit fell to 0.01 billion yuan, down 559% [4] - The titanium dioxide industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with nine companies reporting total operating revenue of 45.504 billion yuan, down 11.97%; net profit decreased to 2.515 billion yuan, down 45.67% [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Future performance in the basic chemical sector is expected to continue to diverge, with positive prospects for refrigerants and potassium fertilizers. The price of mainstream refrigerant R32 is projected to reach 60,200 yuan per ton in Q4, an increase of 18.97% from Q3 [5] - The potassium fertilizer market's supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, with high prices likely to persist [5] - Conversely, the titanium dioxide and nitrogen fertilizer industries may face challenges, with predictions of oversupply in the nitrogen fertilizer market by 2025 [5]

Core Insights - The basic chemical sector's performance has shown continuous improvement, with 540 listed companies achieving a total revenue of 23,132.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.69%, and a net profit of 1,196.75 billion yuan, up 8.69% [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The potassium fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer sectors have experienced significant profit growth due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with potassium fertilizer companies reporting a revenue increase of 60.62% and a net profit increase of 57.60% [2] - The refrigerant industry has maintained a strong performance, with five companies achieving a revenue of 51.88 billion yuan, up 19.51%, and a net profit of 7.446 billion yuan, up 138.04% [2] - The pesticide industry has shown broad revenue growth and significant profit improvement, with 42 companies reporting a revenue of 164.51 billion yuan, up 6.56%, and a net profit of 7.334 billion yuan, up 111.66% [3] Group 2: Challenges and Supply-Demand Imbalance - Despite some sectors performing well, the industry faces challenges due to supply-demand imbalances, particularly in the carbon black and tire sectors, where companies have reported significant losses [4] - The tire industry has seen a revenue increase of 10.03% but a net profit decline of 18.17%, indicating a disparity in profitability among companies [4] - The titanium dioxide sector is undergoing a deep adjustment, with revenues down 11.97% and net profits down 45.67% for nine companies [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Future performance in the basic chemical sector is expected to remain differentiated, with positive prospects for refrigerants and potassium fertilizers, while challenges are anticipated for titanium dioxide and nitrogen fertilizer sectors [5] - The refrigerant market is projected to see price increases, with the main product R32 reaching a long-term contract price of 60,200 yuan per ton, an 18.97% increase from the previous quarter [5] - The nitrogen fertilizer industry faces oversupply issues, with production capacity expected to exceed demand by 2025, leading to potential downward pressure on prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Construction Investment suggests focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend, as the chemical industry faces a slowdown in capital expenditure and an approaching cyclical turning point [1] Group 1: Beneficial Sectors - Recommended sectors include pesticides, urea, soda ash, filament, organic silicon, and spandex, which are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend [1] - In the context of a declining interest rate cycle, China's counter-cyclical policies are expected to boost domestic demand, making sectors like polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical attractive [1] Group 2: New Material Development - The development of new productive forces, self-control, and industrial upgrading are emphasized as key strategies in the context of major power competition, with new materials being a primary development direction for China's chemical industry [1] - Focus areas include semiconductor materials, OLED materials, COC materials, and other high value-added products [1] Group 3: High Shareholder Returns - High-quality companies with substantial shareholder returns are expected to continue their revaluation journey, particularly state-owned enterprises in the oil and gas petrochemical sector, coal chemical, compound fertilizer, phosphorus chemical, and leading companies in the MSG/feed amino acid industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Construction Investment suggests focusing on specific sectors within the chemical industry that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend and the upcoming economic cycle shift, while also highlighting the importance of new material development in the context of national competition [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Attention is recommended for sectors such as pesticides, urea, soda ash, long fibers, organic silicon, and spandex, which are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend [1] - In the context of a declining interest rate cycle, sectors like polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical are suggested for investment as they may help stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Development Focus - The report emphasizes the development of new productive forces, self-sufficiency, and industrial upgrades as key strategies in the context of major power competition, with new materials being a primary focus for the Chinese chemical industry [1] - Specific attention is drawn to the continuous development of semiconductor materials, OLED materials, COC materials, and other high value-added products [1] Group 3: Quality Enterprises - High shareholder returns from quality enterprises are expected to continue their revaluation journey, with a focus on leading state-owned enterprises in oil and gas, coal chemical, compound fertilizer, phosphorus chemical, and amino acid industries for feed and flavoring [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant price increases in key additives such as VC and FEC, with VC rising nearly 40% since September and FEC increasing by 4.2% recently [1][3] - The effective production capacity for additives is currently at full capacity, leading to a tight supply-demand situation, which is expected to accelerate price increases in the near future [3][4] - The demand for EC, a key raw material for VC and FEC, is projected to increase significantly, with expectations of nearly 300,000 tons of demand driven by additives by 2026 [4][5] Group 2 - The price of 6F has reached a high of 130,000, with an average price of 120,000, indicating a 150% increase from the bottom [2] - The average price of VC has risen to 65,000, with a significant increase in demand from key players like Huasheng and Haike [2][3] - The iron lithium sector is expected to see a cost index released this week, which will serve as a basis for future price increases, with major companies exceeding production capacity [2][4] Group 3 - The phosphoric chemical sector is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with wet-process phosphoric acid production facing shutdowns, leading to price increases in yellow phosphorus [6][7] - The demand for phosphoric acid is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing need for lithium iron phosphate in energy storage and electric vehicles [10][18] - The overall chemical sector is anticipated to see a price increase due to a shift in market dynamics and the expectation of a positive PPI in 2026 [8][19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][11]. Core Views - The company's main product gross margin has declined, leading to performance pressure in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue down 19.05% year-on-year to 451 million yuan and net profit down 20.39% to 79 million yuan [2][4]. - Despite the challenges, the company has increased its investment in technological upgrades, successfully overcoming key technical barriers in customized products, which has enhanced its market response capabilities and expanded its application areas [3][4]. - The sales of electronic-grade chemicals are steadily increasing, with the company successfully entering core supply channels of major semiconductor manufacturers [8][11]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 129 million yuan, a decrease of 20.19% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 14.14% year-on-year to 20 million yuan [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 17.41%, up 2.92 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 16.03%, up 5.37 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s main products, functional additives and phenyl chlorosilane, saw production increase by 6.5% year-on-year to 11,312.90 tons, although sales prices have declined due to lower prices of organic silicon products [4][5]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 618 million yuan, 739 million yuan, and 855 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 101 million yuan, 114 million yuan, and 144 million yuan [10][11]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profit growth, with a projected increase of 27% in net profit by 2027 [11]. Market Performance - As of November 10, 2025, the company's stock price was 17.52 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 5.53 billion yuan [6][17]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, distributing 0.15 yuan per share in cash dividends, which has bolstered investor confidence [9].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The chemical sector is experiencing increased investment attractiveness due to expectations of PPI turning positive, improvements in macro indicators, and appealing valuations. The current PB index is approximately 2.2 times, which is at the 47th percentile over the past decade, indicating investment value [1][2][6]. Key Points on Phosphate and Lithium Iron Phosphate - Significant growth in demand for phosphate rock and lithium iron phosphate is noted, with lithium iron phosphate prices rising, which in turn boosts upstream phosphate demand. It is expected that in 2026, lithium iron phosphate will account for about 10% of total phosphate demand, supporting supply-demand balance [1][3][10]. - The overall phosphate demand is projected to be around 130 million tons in 2026, with lithium iron phosphate contributing approximately 14 million tons [3][7]. - The phosphate market is driven by the demand from both traditional fertilizers and the new energy sector, with the latter's share increasing. By 2026 and 2027, new demand is expected to add over 3 million tons of phosphate rock annually [1][10]. Performance of Specific Companies - Companies like Yuntianhua are highlighted as high-dividend assets benefiting from the rising prices of lithium iron phosphate. Other companies such as Chuanfa and Annada also possess significant production capacities, providing them with elasticity in the market [1][4][8]. - Companies like Luxi and Hualu Hengsheng are noted for their strong market positions, with Luxi showing significant performance due to its diverse product range and elasticity during price increases [8]. Market Dynamics in Other Chemical Segments - The caprolactam sector has shown good performance, with a recent agreement to reduce production by 20% and increase prices by 100 yuan per ton, benefiting companies like Luxi [5]. - Other segments such as PTA bottles, polyester filament, DMT, and sucralose are also worth monitoring due to their potential for price increases amid a deepening anti-involution trend [5]. Supply and Demand Forecasts - The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock is expected to remain tight due to limited new production capacity and increasing demand from the new energy sector. The average market price is currently stable at around 1,000 yuan per ton, with expectations for prices to remain high in the coming years [10][12]. - The lithium iron phosphate market is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of around 30% from 2025 to 2027, driven by the rapid growth in demand for electric vehicle and energy storage batteries [11]. Organic Silicon Market Outlook - The organic silicon market is anticipated to see changes in demand structure, with a shift towards photovoltaic and new energy vehicle applications. However, growth rates may slow due to high penetration rates in the new energy vehicle sector [18]. - The current capacity utilization rate in the organic silicon industry is below 70%, indicating potential for adjustment. The industry is planning to implement production cuts to control supply, which may support price increases [19][21]. Conclusion - The chemical sector, particularly in phosphate and lithium iron phosphate, presents significant investment opportunities due to strong demand growth and favorable market conditions. Companies with robust production capacities and strategic positioning are likely to benefit from these trends. The organic silicon market also shows potential for recovery, contingent on effective supply management and cost stabilization.

Core Viewpoint - Dongyue Silicon Materials announced that its stock price experienced an abnormal fluctuation, with a cumulative closing price deviation of 38.66% over two trading days [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Stock Performance** - The stock price of Dongyue Silicon Materials increased by a cumulative 38.66% over the trading days of November 7 and November 10, 2025, indicating significant volatility [1] - **Company Disclosure** - The company confirmed that there are no corrections or supplements needed for previously disclosed information [1] - Dongyue Silicon Materials has not identified any recent media reports that could have significantly impacted its stock price with undisclosed major information [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector in A-shares continues its strong performance, with specific segments like phosphorus and fluorine chemicals showing positive stock movements, driven by self-regulatory actions to stabilize prices and reduce supply [1] Group 1: Industry Actions - The caprolactam industry has initiated a self-regulatory action to reduce production by 20% to alleviate inventory and price pressures, with plans to increase product prices by 100 yuan per ton [2] - This self-regulation is a response to significant losses in the industry, with losses per ton exceeding 600 yuan in recent months, prompting companies to adopt measures to balance supply and demand [2] - The proactive supply adjustments have led to a negative weekly supply-demand difference, indicating a successful transition into a destocking phase, which is expected to support price stabilization [2] Group 2: Policy Support - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to maintain good market price order, providing strong backing for the industry's self-regulatory actions [3] - The self-regulatory actions in the caprolactam sector are seen as a means to protect market price order and ensure long-term industry health [3] Group 3: Market Confidence - The self-regulatory trend is spreading across various chemical sub-industries, with the polyester filament industry previously adopting a price stabilization strategy [4] - Analysts predict that the polyester filament industry will see a decline in actual production capacity in 2024, leading to a more orderly supply increase [4] - The organic silicon industry is also showing positive self-regulatory trends, with no new capacity expected from 2025 to 2026, indicating a potential for profit recovery [4] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Current sectors such as agrochemicals, refrigerants, bioenergy, tires, and metallic chromium are in an upward cycle, with main business growth expected to remain high [5] - The ongoing push for carbon neutrality is optimizing the supply structure in high-energy-consuming chemical industries, benefiting leading companies with core technological advantages and significant scale effects [5] - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase, enhancing the competitive advantages of leading enterprises [5]