证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 东鹏饮料（605499） 2024 年年报点评：24 年高质量收官，确定性 与成长性兼具 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11263 | 15839 | 20438 | 25509 | 30259 | | 同比（%） | 32.42 | 40.63 | 29.04 | 24.81 | 18.62 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2040 | 3327 | 4479 | 5796 | 7076 | | 同比（%） | 41.60 | 63.09 | 34.64 | 29.39 | 22.09 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.92 | 6.40 | 8.61 | 11.15 | 13.61 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 58.37 | 35.79 | 26.58 | 20.54 | 16.83 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Sum ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is maintained as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The heavy holding ratio in the food and beverage sector has decreased, while the overweight ratio has slightly increased. As of Q4 2024, the total market value of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector is 309.25 billion, down by 41.40 billion from the previous quarter, with a heavy holding ratio of 4.56%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points [1][12][14] - The white liquor sector has seen a significant decline in heavy holding ratios, while the majority of the consumer goods sector has increased. The heavy holding ratio for the white liquor sector is 3.95%, down by 0.65 percentage points, while other sub-sectors like beverage and dairy have shown increases [1][15][17] Summary by Sections Heavy Holding Ratios - In Q4 2024, the food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio ranks third among 31 primary industries, below the five-year average of 7.27%, indicating potential for growth [1][12] - The heavy holding market value in the food and beverage sector accounts for 11.73% of the total heavy holdings, a decrease of 0.52 percentage points [14] Sub-sector Performance - The white liquor sector's heavy holding ratio has decreased significantly, while the majority of consumer goods sub-sectors have increased. The beverage and dairy sub-sector's heavy holding ratio rose to 0.28%, while non-white liquor and snack food sectors also saw slight increases [15][17][18] - The heavy holding ratio for the food processing sub-sector has continued to decline, now at 1.30%, the lowest among all sub-sectors [18] Individual Stock Analysis - The top ten heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector are dominated by white liquor stocks, with seven out of ten positions held by white liquor companies. The overall heavy holding ratio for these top ten stocks is 4.22%, down by 0.44 percentage points [2][28] - The leading companies in heavy holdings include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with Kweichow Moutai maintaining the highest heavy holding ratio at 2.05% [28][30] Investment Recommendations - Despite the overall weak recovery in consumption, it is anticipated that policies to boost consumption will be strengthened in 2025, presenting opportunities in the food and beverage sector. Key areas to focus on include: - White liquor: Expecting demand recovery to alleviate inventory pressure, particularly in mid-range and mass-market segments [3] - Beer: Cost reductions are expected to enhance profitability, with a recovery in demand for mid-to-high-end beers [3] - Seasoning products: Continued cost advantages and health-oriented demand are seen as growth drivers [3] - Dairy products: Approaching a cost inflection point, with price wars expected to ease [3]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 东鹏饮料（605499） 持续丰富产品矩阵，势能保持向好 2025 年 02 月 28 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8505 | 11263 | 16017 | 20706 | 25709 | | 同比（%） | 21.89 | 32.42 | 42.21 | 29.28 | 24.16 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1441 | 2040 | 3351 | 4510 | 5801 | | 同比（%） | 20.75 | 41.60 | 64.31 | 34.58 | 28.62 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.77 | 3.92 | 6.45 | 8.67 | 11.16 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 77.21 | 54.53 | 33.19 | 24.66 | 19.17 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summ ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 东鹏饮料（605499） 持续丰富产品矩阵，势能保持向好 2025 年 02 月 28 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8505 | 11263 | 16017 | 20706 | 25709 | | 同比（%） | 21.89 | 32.42 | 42.21 | 29.28 | 24.16 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1441 | 2040 | 3351 | 4510 | 5801 | | 同比（%） | 20.75 | 41.60 | 64.31 | 34.58 | 28.62 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.77 | 3.92 | 6.45 | 8.67 | 11.16 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 77.21 | 54.53 | 33.19 | 24.66 | 19.17 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summ ...